Monday, May 08, 2006

Are the stockmarkets too high?

Based on current interest rate, it is possible to justify a PE ratio of 20 times.

Here are the PE ratio of the various markets:



World Price-Earnings
P/E Est. P/E
Japan (Nikkei 225) 43.93 49.64
Singapore (STI) 14.51 16.35
US (S&P500) 17.97 15.59
Indonesia (JCI) 20.27 15.93
Malaysia (KLCI) 15.78 15.91
Taiwan (TWSE) 19.97 15.12
Italy (MIB30) 15.19 14.29
Hong Kong (HSI) 13.32 14.21
Germany (Dax) 14.94 13.95
UK (FTSE100) 15.43 13.37
South Korea (KOSPI) 12.45 13.34
France (CAC 40) 14.68 13.33
Thailand (SET) 10.58 11.59

P/E is calculated on trailing 12 months net earnings (after tax) per share of component stocks.

Est P/E is calculated based on IBES earnings estimates.



Based on estimate PE (ie for next year), Japan and Singapore looks relatively expensive, while South Korea and Thailand looks cheap.

However, at estimated PE of 16 times, the Singapore market still looks acceptable. So, there is nothing to be concerned about.

It seems that the profit is forecasted to drop for Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea and Thailand over the next 12 months.

P/E is calculated on trailing 12 months net earnings (after tax) per share
of component stocks. Est P/E is calculated based on IBES earnings estimates.

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