I attended the 30th anniversary celebration party of the Singapore Democratic Party. Dr. Chee Soon Juan is the Secretary General. The event was fully attended by party members and guests.
I spoke to a few guests and asked about their occupation and views of Singapore. Several of them were not members of any political party but attended the event to show their support for change in the political system. They love Singapore but had been disappointed with the policies of the ruling party in recent years. One of them, who has worked in China for six years said, "The PAP has betrayed the people of Singapore". Two others made rude remarks about the top leaders of the Government.
E-mail: kinlian@gmail.com. Website: www.tankinlian.com Facebook: www.facebook.com/kinlian
Saturday, February 27, 2010
Dangers of Personal Investing
I received a thick prospectus for a share that I invested in. The company is giving a rights issue to existing shareholders to subscribe for shares of another associated company. The deadline was about 1 week.
The prospectus was complicated. I have no idea about what the new shares were and if the amount to pay for the shares are at a fair value. I do not know if the rights issue had diluted the value of my existing shares.
I send an e-mail to ask my stockbroker to give me a summary of the rights issue, and also to tell me if I can sell my rights at the exchange. Fortunately, I have access to a stockbroker who is able to get his company's research department to answer my questions.
Many retail shareholders are placed at a disadvantage when a company has a rights issue. If they do not act on the rights, the value of their existing shares may be diluted. They should, at the least, sell the rights in the market and get a value that can cover the dilution in value of their "mother" shares.
Here is a real story. A retail investor bought the rights to subscribe to new shares and paid $60,000 to the owner of the rights. He is required to pay another $65,000 at the ATM to subscribe to the rights. As this is the first time that he is subscribing to the shares through the ATM, he entered the amount in the wrong field, i.e "apply for excess rights" rather than "apply for the subscribed rights". The company treated him as failing to subscribe for the new shares. He appealed to CDP and to the company to rectify this mistake but they told him that "nothing can be done". He lost $60,000 due to a small mistake.
There is a small chapter on personal investing in my book, Practical Guide on Financial Planning. You can order here. There is a 15% discount if you order before 1 March 2010, two more days only.
The prospectus was complicated. I have no idea about what the new shares were and if the amount to pay for the shares are at a fair value. I do not know if the rights issue had diluted the value of my existing shares.
I send an e-mail to ask my stockbroker to give me a summary of the rights issue, and also to tell me if I can sell my rights at the exchange. Fortunately, I have access to a stockbroker who is able to get his company's research department to answer my questions.
Many retail shareholders are placed at a disadvantage when a company has a rights issue. If they do not act on the rights, the value of their existing shares may be diluted. They should, at the least, sell the rights in the market and get a value that can cover the dilution in value of their "mother" shares.
Here is a real story. A retail investor bought the rights to subscribe to new shares and paid $60,000 to the owner of the rights. He is required to pay another $65,000 at the ATM to subscribe to the rights. As this is the first time that he is subscribing to the shares through the ATM, he entered the amount in the wrong field, i.e "apply for excess rights" rather than "apply for the subscribed rights". The company treated him as failing to subscribe for the new shares. He appealed to CDP and to the company to rectify this mistake but they told him that "nothing can be done". He lost $60,000 due to a small mistake.
There is a small chapter on personal investing in my book, Practical Guide on Financial Planning. You can order here. There is a 15% discount if you order before 1 March 2010, two more days only.
USA has become a social democracy
Read this article. In my view, this is good and also inevitable. The world cannot continue to have widening gap in income levels - which is not sustainable. The free market capitalist model has, on balance, failed to produce a better future for the people of the world.
A social democracy is a new named coined to replace "democratic socialism". It is a society that is based on democracy and has social networks, such as unemployment, care for the elderly, health care, education and other activities that give security and a better life for the people.
A social democracy is a new named coined to replace "democratic socialism". It is a society that is based on democracy and has social networks, such as unemployment, care for the elderly, health care, education and other activities that give security and a better life for the people.
A wasteful society
I receive many publications each month from my bank, stockbrokers, clubs, associations, investee companies and other organisations. Some of these publications are sent to several members of my family. The senders did not bother to remove the duplicates that are sent to the same addresses.
How wasteful. How many trees have to be cut down for the unncessary printing that is hardly read. These publications may be free to the consumer, but it is part of the cost of doing business. The businesses are able to levy high charges to cover these wasteful costs, and still make huge profits. How can we stop this wastefulness in Singapore?
Tan Kin Lian
How wasteful. How many trees have to be cut down for the unncessary printing that is hardly read. These publications may be free to the consumer, but it is part of the cost of doing business. The businesses are able to levy high charges to cover these wasteful costs, and still make huge profits. How can we stop this wastefulness in Singapore?
Tan Kin Lian
Replace GST with a payroll tax
GST is a bad tax. It is very costly to administer and require a lot of work to keep track of countless transactions, including identifying transactions that should be exempt, zero-rated or taxable and the inputs that are allowed to be recovered. This wasteful cost is added to the cost of doing business in Singapore and make us less competitive internationally against countries that do not have this burden.
GST can be replaced by a flat rate tax on wages and investment income. To replace GST at 7%, it should be possible to levy a flat rate of 4% - based on the assumption that most workers will spend 4/7 of their wages on the items that are covered by GST.
Employers can be made to contribute a payroll tax of 4% on the wages. They can recover this amount from workers earning above a certain threshold, so that the low income workers are exempted (i.e. the payroll tax is borne by the employer). This flat rate of 4% can also be levied on investment income. For income from property, this tax can be added to the tax based on annual value.
The government can collect an equivalent amount in taxation (to replace GST) and businesses can be relieved of the administrative cost of keeping a separate set of records and employing accountants to account for GST.
The accounting firms and tax officers will be unhappy to see GST disappear, as they make profits and earn good salaries with GST. But, we are already short of accounting staff to do the ordinary accounting work (other than GST) - so they can be redeployed for more useful purpose.
But can Singapore afford to waste scarce resources on doing wasteful work on GST, when there is a simpler and more efficient way to achieve the same goal?
Tan Kin Lian
GST can be replaced by a flat rate tax on wages and investment income. To replace GST at 7%, it should be possible to levy a flat rate of 4% - based on the assumption that most workers will spend 4/7 of their wages on the items that are covered by GST.
Employers can be made to contribute a payroll tax of 4% on the wages. They can recover this amount from workers earning above a certain threshold, so that the low income workers are exempted (i.e. the payroll tax is borne by the employer). This flat rate of 4% can also be levied on investment income. For income from property, this tax can be added to the tax based on annual value.
The government can collect an equivalent amount in taxation (to replace GST) and businesses can be relieved of the administrative cost of keeping a separate set of records and employing accountants to account for GST.
The accounting firms and tax officers will be unhappy to see GST disappear, as they make profits and earn good salaries with GST. But, we are already short of accounting staff to do the ordinary accounting work (other than GST) - so they can be redeployed for more useful purpose.
But can Singapore afford to waste scarce resources on doing wasteful work on GST, when there is a simpler and more efficient way to achieve the same goal?
Tan Kin Lian
A job for every person
It is possible for a community (or nation) to provide a job for every person suitable to his skill and training and at a fair rate of pay that is sufficient to make a living. In the rural community of olden days, every person can make a living provided that he (or she) is willing to work. Most choose to farm, but other occupations are also available - merchant, craftsman, doctors, teachers.
This type of situation is possible in the modern economy, but it requires a new economic system and better regulation. It is possible to use modern technology to create an efficient and fair market to match the demand and supply for any occupation (e.g. teachers, nurses). A fair hourly rate of wage can be determined that can balance the supply and demand.
This is supposed to be the modus operandi of the free market, but currently the market does not work inefficiently due to gaps in information. If the information is made available in a transparent manner (and this is possible with the internet technology), it would be possible to determine a fair wage rate that will balance the supply and demand.
If there is a temporary glut (i.e. more supply than demand), the number of hours of work can be regulated, so that the available work is shared fairly among all the workers and unemployment is avoided. As each person is paid on an hourly rate, they will earn less for the reduced hours of work but they have more free time for family, friends, holidays or for other part time work.
In the rural community of olden days, each farmer may have some bumper and lean seasons and they adapt their lifestyle to this variation. There is no need for workers to have a fixed salary, when the demand for their service may vary. If workers have variable salary, they should not be making large fixed commitment, e.g. to buy an expensive home!
This type of arrangement may not apply to the economic sectors that are subject to global competition, e.g. manufacture of products that are sold in the global market. But, this arrangement can apply to the domestic economy (including tourism) which should provide occupation for at least two thirds of the people in the community.
How nice would it be, to live in a community where one is assured that there will be work that fits one's skill and training and will pay a fair rate that is sufficient to make a living (but not to accumulate large wealth). There will also be opportunities for some people to accumulate wealth, but the security of work and a decent living should be provided to every person.
Tan Kin Lian
This type of situation is possible in the modern economy, but it requires a new economic system and better regulation. It is possible to use modern technology to create an efficient and fair market to match the demand and supply for any occupation (e.g. teachers, nurses). A fair hourly rate of wage can be determined that can balance the supply and demand.
This is supposed to be the modus operandi of the free market, but currently the market does not work inefficiently due to gaps in information. If the information is made available in a transparent manner (and this is possible with the internet technology), it would be possible to determine a fair wage rate that will balance the supply and demand.
If there is a temporary glut (i.e. more supply than demand), the number of hours of work can be regulated, so that the available work is shared fairly among all the workers and unemployment is avoided. As each person is paid on an hourly rate, they will earn less for the reduced hours of work but they have more free time for family, friends, holidays or for other part time work.
In the rural community of olden days, each farmer may have some bumper and lean seasons and they adapt their lifestyle to this variation. There is no need for workers to have a fixed salary, when the demand for their service may vary. If workers have variable salary, they should not be making large fixed commitment, e.g. to buy an expensive home!
This type of arrangement may not apply to the economic sectors that are subject to global competition, e.g. manufacture of products that are sold in the global market. But, this arrangement can apply to the domestic economy (including tourism) which should provide occupation for at least two thirds of the people in the community.
How nice would it be, to live in a community where one is assured that there will be work that fits one's skill and training and will pay a fair rate that is sufficient to make a living (but not to accumulate large wealth). There will also be opportunities for some people to accumulate wealth, but the security of work and a decent living should be provided to every person.
Tan Kin Lian
Moderation in my blog
Somebody asked why one of his particular comment was blocked in my blog. I block the following comments:
- mischievous
- malicious
- personal attack
- defamatory
I also block some comments by mistake. When a comment is rejected, I do not have any record of it.
If you feel that you comments are sincere and do not fall in any of the blocked categories, you can submit them again.
- mischievous
- malicious
- personal attack
- defamatory
I also block some comments by mistake. When a comment is rejected, I do not have any record of it.
If you feel that you comments are sincere and do not fall in any of the blocked categories, you can submit them again.
Friday, February 26, 2010
Simplify taxation
A government needs to collect tax to pay for its expenses and social benefits. It should simplify the system of taxation and make it equitable. Those who earn more can pay higher taxes. The exemptions and reliefs should also be simplified.
Income should only be taxed once. As owners have to pay property tax, they should be exempted from paying income tax on the rental income. The rate of property tax can be adjusted for this loss of tax.
The worst type of taxation is GST. Apart from being inequitable and regressive, i.e. the lower income pay proportionately more tax, it imposes a heavy burden on the economy to account and collect the tax, and add to the cost of doing business. GST of 7% can be replaced by a flat rate of 4% deducted from the payroll and on investment income. The payroll tax of 4% should be paid by the employer and treated as the cost of doing business. This may be recovered from employees earning above a certain threshold.
Even a sales tax, used in USA, is better than a value added tax (like GST). The sales tax is simplier and less costly to administer. (The accounting firms love GST as it gives them business and profits.)
As we introduce new taxes and make changes, we must also take the opportunity to simplify and streamline our tax system. We need to take a bold step in this direction.
Some countries have introduced a flat rate tax system, for ease of administration. To relief the burden on the lower income, they provide generous deductions, so that the lower income do not need to pay tax. More details are provided here.
Tan Kin Lian
Income should only be taxed once. As owners have to pay property tax, they should be exempted from paying income tax on the rental income. The rate of property tax can be adjusted for this loss of tax.
The worst type of taxation is GST. Apart from being inequitable and regressive, i.e. the lower income pay proportionately more tax, it imposes a heavy burden on the economy to account and collect the tax, and add to the cost of doing business. GST of 7% can be replaced by a flat rate of 4% deducted from the payroll and on investment income. The payroll tax of 4% should be paid by the employer and treated as the cost of doing business. This may be recovered from employees earning above a certain threshold.
Even a sales tax, used in USA, is better than a value added tax (like GST). The sales tax is simplier and less costly to administer. (The accounting firms love GST as it gives them business and profits.)
As we introduce new taxes and make changes, we must also take the opportunity to simplify and streamline our tax system. We need to take a bold step in this direction.
Some countries have introduced a flat rate tax system, for ease of administration. To relief the burden on the lower income, they provide generous deductions, so that the lower income do not need to pay tax. More details are provided here.
Tan Kin Lian
Relief from income tax
The earned income and wife relief for income tax had remained at $1,000 and $2,000 for the past forty years or longer. If this relief has been adjusted for inflation, it should be $5,000 and $10,000 respectively today.
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Survey: The Stingy Nanny
Here are the results of the survey, based on 35 respondents.
The majority agree with 4 motherhood statements. However, for the statements that show tangible results, the majoirty disagree. The lowest level of agreement is for the statement that the poor in Singapore can live in dignity.
Here are the comments from the respondents.
The majority agree with 4 motherhood statements. However, for the statements that show tangible results, the majoirty disagree. The lowest level of agreement is for the statement that the poor in Singapore can live in dignity.
Here are the comments from the respondents.
Guide to Pro Investor
Promotion (15% discount) will end on 28 Feb 2010
The Promotion (code - BLOG) to earn 15% discount on my books will end in 3 days time - 28 February 2009. Order now.
Temasek 15 year bond
My bank told me that Temasek 15 year bond is available in the secondary market at a yield of 3.65%. There is a commission of 0.5% payable to the bank. The minimum investment amount is $200,000.
Decreasing Term Insurance
I have been advising consumers to buy a Decreasing Term Insurance (DTA). This will cost less than half of a Level Term Insurance.
For example, a male aged 30 can insure for $300,000 for 25 years by paying an annual premium of (say) $500. If this person buys a DTA, the annual premium can reduce by at least half, i.e. $250. (Note: the actual premium is likely to be lower, if you ask for competitive quotes from several companies).
Under a DTA, the sum insured will reduce proportionately each year. In the above example, the sum insured is $300,000 during the fitst year, and will reduce by $12,000 each year (i.e. $300,000 divided by 25). In the final year, the sum insured will only be $12,000.
It make sense to buy a DTA as the consumer is likely to have savings each year that will cover the reduction in the sum insured. For example, the savings can be $12,000 a year in the above example.
In the event of premature death, the sum insured under the DTA can be added to the accumulated savings to make a total sum that is sufficient to take care of the needs of the dependents. The policy payout can be invested with the accumulated savings in a low cost investment fund to earn a market rate of return (perhaps 5% per annum, after averaging out the good and bad years). The family can make a monthly drawdown (say $1,500 a month) from the accumulated savings to meet their needs. The total amount can last for many years, depending on the amount that has been saved.
A good combination is to have a DTA to provide a large sum to be supplemented with monthly savings that are invested in a low cost, well diversified fund.
A DTA is similar to the cover provided by a life insurance policy. Although the policy provides a level sum insured, the amount that is being insured actually reduces over the years, as the cash values are built up from the investment of the net premiums.
Many of the insurance companies in Singapore do not offer attractive rates for DTA. It may be neccessary for consumers to buy DTA outside of Singapore. You can try to get quotes from websites in America that offer this type of policy. When consumers have a choice, the life companies in Singapore will be forced to offer this type of policy on competitive rates.
Tan Kin Lian
For example, a male aged 30 can insure for $300,000 for 25 years by paying an annual premium of (say) $500. If this person buys a DTA, the annual premium can reduce by at least half, i.e. $250. (Note: the actual premium is likely to be lower, if you ask for competitive quotes from several companies).
Under a DTA, the sum insured will reduce proportionately each year. In the above example, the sum insured is $300,000 during the fitst year, and will reduce by $12,000 each year (i.e. $300,000 divided by 25). In the final year, the sum insured will only be $12,000.
It make sense to buy a DTA as the consumer is likely to have savings each year that will cover the reduction in the sum insured. For example, the savings can be $12,000 a year in the above example.
In the event of premature death, the sum insured under the DTA can be added to the accumulated savings to make a total sum that is sufficient to take care of the needs of the dependents. The policy payout can be invested with the accumulated savings in a low cost investment fund to earn a market rate of return (perhaps 5% per annum, after averaging out the good and bad years). The family can make a monthly drawdown (say $1,500 a month) from the accumulated savings to meet their needs. The total amount can last for many years, depending on the amount that has been saved.
A good combination is to have a DTA to provide a large sum to be supplemented with monthly savings that are invested in a low cost, well diversified fund.
A DTA is similar to the cover provided by a life insurance policy. Although the policy provides a level sum insured, the amount that is being insured actually reduces over the years, as the cash values are built up from the investment of the net premiums.
Many of the insurance companies in Singapore do not offer attractive rates for DTA. It may be neccessary for consumers to buy DTA outside of Singapore. You can try to get quotes from websites in America that offer this type of policy. When consumers have a choice, the life companies in Singapore will be forced to offer this type of policy on competitive rates.
Tan Kin Lian
Transparency in life insurance
A life insurance policy provides two useful services:
a) insurance against premature death
b) investments of savings for the future.
For the first service, the consumer wants to pay a fair price. The consumer does not want to be overcharged,compared to similar insurance offered by other providers. For the second service, the consumer wants to get a fair yield, comparable to the yield that can be obtained from other investments with similar risk profile.
A good insurance policy is transparent and give good value to the consumer. Unfortunately, there are many life insurance products that are not transparent and give poor value to the consumers. It is difficult for the consumer to distinguish between the good and bad products.
The benefit illustration for the insurance product can give some indication about the fairness of the charges and the yield. Look at the distribution cost, which is the amount that is taken from your savings. If it is $1,000 or more, it seems to be excessive. Do you really want to pay such a high fee to the insurance agent, who may be someone that you do not know previously? This fee is taken away from your savings, which is the same as being paid directly.
You can also look at the "effect of deduction". This is the total amount that is taken away from your "accumulated premiums" during the lifetime of the policy. If this amounts to a high percentage of the accumulated premiums, then you are being offered a policy of poor value.
I have written a separate article about the the percentage that is fair, and the percentage that is excessive. If you are not sure, you can write to me at kinlian@gmail.com. I can answer you directly or refer you to FISCA, www.fisca.sg
A life insurance policy can represent a large part of your future savings for a lifetime. Make sure that you get a fair deal and a good yield. Make sure that you are being advised by a honest agent who takes care of your interest (and not his own personal gain). Do not make a bad investment that will penalise you for a lifetime.
Tan Kin Lian
a) insurance against premature death
b) investments of savings for the future.
For the first service, the consumer wants to pay a fair price. The consumer does not want to be overcharged,compared to similar insurance offered by other providers. For the second service, the consumer wants to get a fair yield, comparable to the yield that can be obtained from other investments with similar risk profile.
A good insurance policy is transparent and give good value to the consumer. Unfortunately, there are many life insurance products that are not transparent and give poor value to the consumers. It is difficult for the consumer to distinguish between the good and bad products.
The benefit illustration for the insurance product can give some indication about the fairness of the charges and the yield. Look at the distribution cost, which is the amount that is taken from your savings. If it is $1,000 or more, it seems to be excessive. Do you really want to pay such a high fee to the insurance agent, who may be someone that you do not know previously? This fee is taken away from your savings, which is the same as being paid directly.
You can also look at the "effect of deduction". This is the total amount that is taken away from your "accumulated premiums" during the lifetime of the policy. If this amounts to a high percentage of the accumulated premiums, then you are being offered a policy of poor value.
I have written a separate article about the the percentage that is fair, and the percentage that is excessive. If you are not sure, you can write to me at kinlian@gmail.com. I can answer you directly or refer you to FISCA, www.fisca.sg
A life insurance policy can represent a large part of your future savings for a lifetime. Make sure that you get a fair deal and a good yield. Make sure that you are being advised by a honest agent who takes care of your interest (and not his own personal gain). Do not make a bad investment that will penalise you for a lifetime.
Tan Kin Lian
Shape Quiz Minipak
I gave the shape quiz mini-pak to a few friends at a lunch. They were amazed at the challenge in forming the shapes. I showed them the approach and to solve some of the shapes using "out of the box" thinking. They also have to follow a systematic approach, i.e. to analyse the shape first, before trying to solve it. It helps to develop the thinking process. You can try the Shape Quiz here for free. The mini-pak sells for $2 and can be ordered here.
Renting and owning a property
Many decades ago, when properties were inexpensive, it was advantageous to buy a property to live in, rather than to rent a property.
The situation has changed. Property prices are high. It may be possible to find a rental property that cost much less than the installment payment to buy a home. In this situation, renting a property may be a more attractive option.
One big advantage of renting a property is the flexibility. You can rent a property that is close to your place of work and reduce the travelling time and expenses. If you change your workplace, you have the flexibility to move to a new rented property.
Many people still like to invest in properties to earn a rental income. This is not as attractive as in past years. It is a hassle to rent out a property and to meet the requests of tenants on repairs, maintenance and other issues. The tenant may not take care of your property or may delay paying the rental. You also have to pay commission to get a tenant.
After deducting the expenses, the net yield on a property is between 2% to 3% (and not counting the hassle that you had to go through). You hope that the yield can be enhanced when you sell the property for a capital gain. But this is not certain, as the value of the property will drop due to age and a shorter lease period. While the price of new property may increase, the high rate of increase does not apply to old properties.
It does not make sense to own a property for renting out. It make better sense to be a tenant. This situation is likely to persist until property prices drop to a more sensible level.
Tan Kin Lian
The situation has changed. Property prices are high. It may be possible to find a rental property that cost much less than the installment payment to buy a home. In this situation, renting a property may be a more attractive option.
One big advantage of renting a property is the flexibility. You can rent a property that is close to your place of work and reduce the travelling time and expenses. If you change your workplace, you have the flexibility to move to a new rented property.
Many people still like to invest in properties to earn a rental income. This is not as attractive as in past years. It is a hassle to rent out a property and to meet the requests of tenants on repairs, maintenance and other issues. The tenant may not take care of your property or may delay paying the rental. You also have to pay commission to get a tenant.
After deducting the expenses, the net yield on a property is between 2% to 3% (and not counting the hassle that you had to go through). You hope that the yield can be enhanced when you sell the property for a capital gain. But this is not certain, as the value of the property will drop due to age and a shorter lease period. While the price of new property may increase, the high rate of increase does not apply to old properties.
It does not make sense to own a property for renting out. It make better sense to be a tenant. This situation is likely to persist until property prices drop to a more sensible level.
Tan Kin Lian
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Mental training with Intellivence Quiz
The Intelligence Quiz looks difficult, but with some training (following the tips in the book), it becomes manageable. More important, it is a mental exercise that trains you to focus the mind and adopt a systematic approach. Even primary students find it challenging and fun.
You can download a PDF with this puzzle from this website free. If you wish to buy the book, click here. Enjoy a 15% discount up to for the rest of this month (promotion code - BLOG).
You can download a PDF with this puzzle from this website free. If you wish to buy the book, click here. Enjoy a 15% discount up to for the rest of this month (promotion code - BLOG).
Class action in America - suggestion by Teo Guan Hock
Teo Guan Hock is the contact person for Kirby McInerney, the US law firm that is willing to organize a class action to seek compensation in the US on behalf of the investors. They need to have sufficient investors to make the effort viable.
KM needs to have some team leaders (of the investors) to come forward to approach the distributors, e.g., DBS Bank, ABN, Hong Leong Finance, Phillip Securities, UOB, OCBC Securities, CIMB GK, to get them to individually or collectively engage KM to review the cases quickly and if fraud could be substantiated, to file class action litigation cases at the US courts to recover the losses. This would be an ideal outcome.
Timing is of the essence. The faster KM is engaged to file the law suit in the US, the chances of success would be higher. The amount to be recovered would also be higher.
If you are interested to be involved and take the lead, you can contact Teo Guan Hock at:
Mobile Tel: +6596695578
Fax: +6563820421
Email: tguanhoc@singnet.com.sg
Tan Kin Lian
KM needs to have some team leaders (of the investors) to come forward to approach the distributors, e.g., DBS Bank, ABN, Hong Leong Finance, Phillip Securities, UOB, OCBC Securities, CIMB GK, to get them to individually or collectively engage KM to review the cases quickly and if fraud could be substantiated, to file class action litigation cases at the US courts to recover the losses. This would be an ideal outcome.
Timing is of the essence. The faster KM is engaged to file the law suit in the US, the chances of success would be higher. The amount to be recovered would also be higher.
If you are interested to be involved and take the lead, you can contact Teo Guan Hock at:
Mobile Tel: +6596695578
Fax: +6563820421
Email: tguanhoc@singnet.com.sg
Tan Kin Lian
Popular items from i-Shop
The most popular items bought from i-Shop are:
Practical Guide on Financial Planning
Rechargeable torchlight
Shape Quiz Mini-pak
Order here.
Practical Guide on Financial Planning
Rechargeable torchlight
Shape Quiz Mini-pak
Order here.
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Mobile Application
I wish to give a contract to develop an application on the iPhone, Windows Mobile and Android. If you have the experience and are interested, send an e-mail with your resume to kinlian@gmail.com.
IMF experts rethink long term ideas
Read this report. The experts think that inflation at 4% is better than 2% and that capital flow should be restricted. I agree with both ideas. Higher inflation will also mean that interest rate will be higher (i.e. good for retirees and savers) and that asset bubbles will be contained (i.e. stock and property prices will not run away). This will produce a more stable economic system.
Distribution cost
The benefit illustration for a life insurance policy has an item called "distribution cost". This is the amount taken away from your savings (i.e premiums) to pay the commission to the insurance agent and his agency manager. It is usually a large sum of money, representing more than 18 months of premium. If you save $500 a month, the amount that is taken away as distribution cost could be (say) $9,000. A large part of this sum is taken away during the first year and the rest over the next four years.
You should ask, "Is it too much to give away (say) $9,000 to buy a life insurance policy? You have more attractive alternatives. You can buy term insurance to cover a larger sum (say $300,000) by paying less than $500 a year. You can invest in a low cost fund, such as the Exchange Traded Fund in SGX, and pay only a small annual fee of 0.3% for the asset management service.
If more consumers are aware about the alternatives, there is no need for them to pay 18 months of their premium as "distribution cost". This will force insurance companies to reduce their distribution cost and find more efficient and low cost ways to market their products. Some countries plan to ban the payment of commission for the sale of insurance products, as the consumers had been given a bad deal for the past years.
After paying such a high distribution cost, you are not getting a superior product that gives superior return. Most life insurance policies give a yield of 2% to 3% over 30 years. This is too low. It should be higher, if the distribution cost and other charges are kept at a modest level.
However, if you find a life insurance policy that has a modest distribution cost, say $300 or less, it is all right to buy the product. Alternatively, you should be willing to pay a fee of $300 for advice, provided that the commission built into the life insurance policy is refunded to you.
Tan Kin Lian
You should ask, "Is it too much to give away (say) $9,000 to buy a life insurance policy? You have more attractive alternatives. You can buy term insurance to cover a larger sum (say $300,000) by paying less than $500 a year. You can invest in a low cost fund, such as the Exchange Traded Fund in SGX, and pay only a small annual fee of 0.3% for the asset management service.
If more consumers are aware about the alternatives, there is no need for them to pay 18 months of their premium as "distribution cost". This will force insurance companies to reduce their distribution cost and find more efficient and low cost ways to market their products. Some countries plan to ban the payment of commission for the sale of insurance products, as the consumers had been given a bad deal for the past years.
After paying such a high distribution cost, you are not getting a superior product that gives superior return. Most life insurance policies give a yield of 2% to 3% over 30 years. This is too low. It should be higher, if the distribution cost and other charges are kept at a modest level.
However, if you find a life insurance policy that has a modest distribution cost, say $300 or less, it is all right to buy the product. Alternatively, you should be willing to pay a fee of $300 for advice, provided that the commission built into the life insurance policy is refunded to you.
Tan Kin Lian
Survey: The Stingy Nanny
Effect of Deduction
An agent who recommends a life insurance policy to you is required to provide a benefit illustration, which can take 10 pages or more.
You should ask the agent to show you the "effect of deduction" and calculate it as a percentage of the "value of premiums paid". The "effect of deduction" should not exceed the following percentage of the "value of premiums paid" in the case of a regular premium policy:
20 year policy - 15%
25 year policy - 18%
30 year policy - 22%
35 year policy - 25%
The above benchmark is my estimate of the fair amount to be deducted from your "value of premium paid" to cover the insurance protection and investment services provided by the insurance company. If the actual percentage is higher, the amount taken away is excessive.
The "value of premium paid" is the accumulated amount assuming that your premium has been invested to earn the assumed rate of return. The "effect of deduction" is the amount that is taken away from your accumulated amount to cover the charges by the insurance company.
Most insurance policies have an "effect of deduction" that takes away an additional 15% from the accumulated premiums (compared to the reasonable levels shown above). These insurance plans do not provide good value to consumers.
For an investment-linked policy, the "value of premiums paid" is not shown. You have to add the "projected net amount" plus "effect of deduction" to get the "value of premiums paid".
Tan Kin Lian
You should ask the agent to show you the "effect of deduction" and calculate it as a percentage of the "value of premiums paid". The "effect of deduction" should not exceed the following percentage of the "value of premiums paid" in the case of a regular premium policy:
20 year policy - 15%
25 year policy - 18%
30 year policy - 22%
35 year policy - 25%
The above benchmark is my estimate of the fair amount to be deducted from your "value of premium paid" to cover the insurance protection and investment services provided by the insurance company. If the actual percentage is higher, the amount taken away is excessive.
The "value of premium paid" is the accumulated amount assuming that your premium has been invested to earn the assumed rate of return. The "effect of deduction" is the amount that is taken away from your accumulated amount to cover the charges by the insurance company.
Most insurance policies have an "effect of deduction" that takes away an additional 15% from the accumulated premiums (compared to the reasonable levels shown above). These insurance plans do not provide good value to consumers.
For an investment-linked policy, the "value of premiums paid" is not shown. You have to add the "projected net amount" plus "effect of deduction" to get the "value of premiums paid".
Tan Kin Lian
Shared bicycles
I posted a blog on the shared bicycles used in the University of Singapore. A few commentators like the idea while others felt that it will not work in Singapore. Here are some research about shared bicycles used in other countries:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bicycle_sharing_system
http://www.veoliatransportation.com/transit/shared-bicycles
http://worksmancycles.com/shopsite_sc/store/html/page59.html
http://www.transalt.org/newsroom/media/1136
Tan Kin Lian
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bicycle_sharing_system
http://www.veoliatransportation.com/transit/shared-bicycles
http://worksmancycles.com/shopsite_sc/store/html/page59.html
http://www.transalt.org/newsroom/media/1136
Tan Kin Lian
Prepare for high inflation
Dear Mr. Tan,
The deficit at Federal and state levels in USA seems to be the next big thing i.e. bigger than Greek crisis. California is already facing the problem of not enough money to pay their civil servants. Some other states are facing the same problem. There are articles written about it and it seems very serious.
Are you able to share your opnion in your blog as well as letting us understand what is the impact to Singapore since we are very dependent on USA for our survival. Also what can we do to protect ourselves in the event the above happens e.g. buy gold and keep since US$ is going to crush.
REPLY
The USA is facing a large deficit as they are not collecting enough taxes to pay for their government expenditures (at Federal and State levels). Right now, they are issuing bonds to fund the deficit and pay a low rate of interest.
They have to raises taxes to balance the budget, but the politicians are reluctant to do so. They have to cut expenses, but that is also unpopular. At some point of time, they have to print money to fund the deficits. This will lead to higher rates of inflation. Many other countries face the same situation and may have to adopt the same solutions.
We have to prepare for high inflation in the future. In this environment, it will be bad to be invested in bonds that give a fixed rate of return. We have to invest in equities and properties that have a variable return that will increase with inflation. On the other hand, high inflation will burst the asset bubbles in equities and bonds. Maybe the safe asset classes will be gold and cash.
This situation may take many years before the correction occurs. In the meantime, many people continue to ignore the problem. Can I have your views on this matter also?
The deficit at Federal and state levels in USA seems to be the next big thing i.e. bigger than Greek crisis. California is already facing the problem of not enough money to pay their civil servants. Some other states are facing the same problem. There are articles written about it and it seems very serious.
Are you able to share your opnion in your blog as well as letting us understand what is the impact to Singapore since we are very dependent on USA for our survival. Also what can we do to protect ourselves in the event the above happens e.g. buy gold and keep since US$ is going to crush.
REPLY
The USA is facing a large deficit as they are not collecting enough taxes to pay for their government expenditures (at Federal and State levels). Right now, they are issuing bonds to fund the deficit and pay a low rate of interest.
They have to raises taxes to balance the budget, but the politicians are reluctant to do so. They have to cut expenses, but that is also unpopular. At some point of time, they have to print money to fund the deficits. This will lead to higher rates of inflation. Many other countries face the same situation and may have to adopt the same solutions.
We have to prepare for high inflation in the future. In this environment, it will be bad to be invested in bonds that give a fixed rate of return. We have to invest in equities and properties that have a variable return that will increase with inflation. On the other hand, high inflation will burst the asset bubbles in equities and bonds. Maybe the safe asset classes will be gold and cash.
This situation may take many years before the correction occurs. In the meantime, many people continue to ignore the problem. Can I have your views on this matter also?
Monday, February 22, 2010
Seminar on class action in USA - April 14, Fullerton Hotel
I have received the following information on the seminar:
Date Wednesday 14 April 2010
Place: Fullerton Hotel
Time: Morning, actual time to be confirmed
This date is delayed due to lack of available hotels and availability of speakers from the US firm. The lawyer was not able to arrange it for a weekend due to the above constraints.
More details will be provided when available. The above should be taken as Tentative.
PARTICIPANTS TO BRING DOCUMENTS
Date Wednesday 14 April 2010
Place: Fullerton Hotel
Time: Morning, actual time to be confirmed
This date is delayed due to lack of available hotels and availability of speakers from the US firm. The lawyer was not able to arrange it for a weekend due to the above constraints.
More details will be provided when available. The above should be taken as Tentative.
PARTICIPANTS TO BRING DOCUMENTS
Dear Mr. Tan,
There will also be a one-on-one meeting after the seminar with KM lawyers. These meetings will start about 2 p.m. Please request the investors to bring along photocopies of their investment documents, if this is possible. Then the meetings will bear immediate fruits.
KM - Kirby McInerney - US legal firm specialising in class action on securities.
Singapore contact person - Teo Guan Hock (email: tguanhoc@singnet.com.sg, mobile: 96695578)
website: http://www.kmslaw.com/
website: http://www.kmslaw.com/
RED Map
I wanted to go to Gain City in Ang Mo Kio. I went to the RED Map and type in "Gain City Singapore". It showed the address and postal code and a map of the vicinity. It is very easy to use and fast to respond.
Here is the URL: http://projects.easyapps.sg/propinfo/
Here is the URL: http://projects.easyapps.sg/propinfo/
Better regulation to ensure a fair market
I welcome the move by the Government to put curbs to prevent a bigger bubble on the property market. It is necessary and desirable.
The frequent speculation in the property market is an example of the failure of the market to produce the right results for consumers. It allows certain parties to take advantage of the ignorance of consumers to make excessive profits for their businesses. Another example is the market for financial products.
We need the market to be better regulated to work better in producing fair outcome for all parties. Excessive profiteering, through deceptive means and abuse of pricing power, should be stopped. The regulator has to act to protect the interest of consumers, rather than to expect consumers to find redress through legal means - as they not have the financial resources to engage lawyers.
We have similar problems with public transport and the telecommunication services. They also need to be better regulated to ensure the interest of consumers and businesses are better balanced.
The government policy to allow matters to be decided by the market has boosted the profits of businesses but has caused hardship to consumers. It is time for the policy to be reviewed and for better regulation to be introduced.
Tan Kin Lian
The frequent speculation in the property market is an example of the failure of the market to produce the right results for consumers. It allows certain parties to take advantage of the ignorance of consumers to make excessive profits for their businesses. Another example is the market for financial products.
We need the market to be better regulated to work better in producing fair outcome for all parties. Excessive profiteering, through deceptive means and abuse of pricing power, should be stopped. The regulator has to act to protect the interest of consumers, rather than to expect consumers to find redress through legal means - as they not have the financial resources to engage lawyers.
We have similar problems with public transport and the telecommunication services. They also need to be better regulated to ensure the interest of consumers and businesses are better balanced.
The government policy to allow matters to be decided by the market has boosted the profits of businesses but has caused hardship to consumers. It is time for the policy to be reviewed and for better regulation to be introduced.
Tan Kin Lian
Sunday, February 21, 2010
The Stingy Nanny
The Economist magazine had an article entitled "the stingy nanny". Here is the reply from the Singapore High Commission to the magazine.
SIR
SIR
I refer to your article “The stingy nanny” of Feb 13th.
Each society has to decide for itself the appropriate balance between unconditional welfare and self-reliance. Singapore has concluded that we cannot afford European-style state welfare, not because of dogma, but because our circumstances are different. We face competition from some of the most vibrant economies in the world, we have no hinterland or natural resources of our own to fall back on, and our future depends on being a dynamic and self-reliant people who strive our utmost to excel and create wealth for ourselves, our families and our society. Each generation must earn and save enough for its entire life cycle.
Our approach is based on time-tested values of hard work, self-reliance, family responsibility and community support for those in need. While we avoid over-generous welfare handouts, we have substantial state subsidies for education, health care and public housing. These are major investments that uplift the skills, promote the health and increase the assets of all Singaporeans. The result has been high growth, low unemployment, high savings and the highest home-ownership rates in the world.
No society has ever succeeded in totally eradicating poverty, nor in eliminating inequality of incomes, not even Communist systems. A generous welfare state, despite its theoretical attractiveness, is not a panacea. Singapore’s system is by no means perfect, but it has produced real results for the vast majority of Singaporeans, and enabled even the poor to live with dignity and hope. The burden of proof is on its critics to demonstrate that their proposals will in fact work, and improve on what Singapore has achieved, given our socio-cultural fabric and economic circumstances.
Michael Eng Cheng Teo
Each society has to decide for itself the appropriate balance between unconditional welfare and self-reliance. Singapore has concluded that we cannot afford European-style state welfare, not because of dogma, but because our circumstances are different. We face competition from some of the most vibrant economies in the world, we have no hinterland or natural resources of our own to fall back on, and our future depends on being a dynamic and self-reliant people who strive our utmost to excel and create wealth for ourselves, our families and our society. Each generation must earn and save enough for its entire life cycle.
Our approach is based on time-tested values of hard work, self-reliance, family responsibility and community support for those in need. While we avoid over-generous welfare handouts, we have substantial state subsidies for education, health care and public housing. These are major investments that uplift the skills, promote the health and increase the assets of all Singaporeans. The result has been high growth, low unemployment, high savings and the highest home-ownership rates in the world.
No society has ever succeeded in totally eradicating poverty, nor in eliminating inequality of incomes, not even Communist systems. A generous welfare state, despite its theoretical attractiveness, is not a panacea. Singapore’s system is by no means perfect, but it has produced real results for the vast majority of Singaporeans, and enabled even the poor to live with dignity and hope. The burden of proof is on its critics to demonstrate that their proposals will in fact work, and improve on what Singapore has achieved, given our socio-cultural fabric and economic circumstances.
Michael Eng Cheng Teo
High Commissioner for Singapore
London
London
Home prices and average salaries
Some readers have commented that the benchmark of 3 years income to pay for a home is outdated. I agree.
In my book on financial planning, I have used the benchmark of 4 to 5 years. I consider 5 years to be on the higher end of the scale. Some people have commented that they are not able to buy a decent home using this benchmark, as prices are high, even for HDB flats.
My advice is not to go beyond 5 years. It may mean that you have to consider other options, such as renting your home or buying a smaller flat.
Some people pay 6 to 8 years of income for their home. They calculate that they can afford the monthly repayment. But, they forget to take the following factors into account:
a) Interest rate may increase in the future, from the current low levels. The higher interest rate will increase the amount of repayment.
b) Jobs are uncertain. If they lose their current job, they may not be able to find another job that pays the same salary.
If more people take this advice and act prudently, the property price will not continue to escalate, as it had in the past years. Do not chase a property bubble. Do not think that you are making a good investment. An overpriced property can drop in value by 30% and leave you with a large financial burden. This has happened in USA and Europe. It can happen in Asia. The low price may be stuck for a decade or longer, as it has happened in Japan.
My book on Financial Planning can be purchased here.
Tan Kin Lian
In my book on financial planning, I have used the benchmark of 4 to 5 years. I consider 5 years to be on the higher end of the scale. Some people have commented that they are not able to buy a decent home using this benchmark, as prices are high, even for HDB flats.
My advice is not to go beyond 5 years. It may mean that you have to consider other options, such as renting your home or buying a smaller flat.
Some people pay 6 to 8 years of income for their home. They calculate that they can afford the monthly repayment. But, they forget to take the following factors into account:
a) Interest rate may increase in the future, from the current low levels. The higher interest rate will increase the amount of repayment.
b) Jobs are uncertain. If they lose their current job, they may not be able to find another job that pays the same salary.
If more people take this advice and act prudently, the property price will not continue to escalate, as it had in the past years. Do not chase a property bubble. Do not think that you are making a good investment. An overpriced property can drop in value by 30% and leave you with a large financial burden. This has happened in USA and Europe. It can happen in Asia. The low price may be stuck for a decade or longer, as it has happened in Japan.
My book on Financial Planning can be purchased here.
Tan Kin Lian
Intelligence Quiz Vol 3
Two nieces visited my home. They asked for my Intelligence Quiz book. The younger girl, who is now in primary 2, was able to complete the beginner quiz within 10 minutes. They competed with each other and enjoyed solving the quiz tremendously. I was surprised that they found it interesting, at their young age.
You can get your children to be interested in this quiz. It trains their mind to be analytical and also to approach the puzzle in a systematic way. The book contains 72 puzzles at three levels - beginner, intermediate and advanced. They can do the puzzle first, because they have done the earlier volumes. The book also contains instructions on how to solve this type of puzzle.
Volume 3 is available in the bookstores at $7.90. The earlier volumes 1 and 2 have been sold out. You can enjoy a 15% discount (net $6.72) if you order through the internet during this month (promotion code - BLOG). The discount is also available for the other books.
Click here.
You can get your children to be interested in this quiz. It trains their mind to be analytical and also to approach the puzzle in a systematic way. The book contains 72 puzzles at three levels - beginner, intermediate and advanced. They can do the puzzle first, because they have done the earlier volumes. The book also contains instructions on how to solve this type of puzzle.
Volume 3 is available in the bookstores at $7.90. The earlier volumes 1 and 2 have been sold out. You can enjoy a 15% discount (net $6.72) if you order through the internet during this month (promotion code - BLOG). The discount is also available for the other books.
Click here.
Talks on Financial Planning at Company Premises
I am available to give talks on Financial Planning at the premises of organisations. Details as follows:
Title: Financial Planning - for Good and Bad Times
Speaker: Tan Kin Lian, Author, Practical Guide on Financial Planning
Duration: 2 hours, including Q&A
Audience - at least 20 people
Fee - to be discussed
Requirements - seminar room with projector.
If your company or organisation is interested, send an e-mail to kinlian@gmail.com
Title: Financial Planning - for Good and Bad Times
Speaker: Tan Kin Lian, Author, Practical Guide on Financial Planning
Duration: 2 hours, including Q&A
Audience - at least 20 people
Fee - to be discussed
Requirements - seminar room with projector.
If your company or organisation is interested, send an e-mail to kinlian@gmail.com
Talks on Financial Planning
I held two talks at Yishan and Pasir Ris Library. They were successful. The contents were suitable for the public.The interaction with the audience was fun and great.
I hope to be able to hold monthly talks at the National Library in Bras Bash Road and at Singapore Exchange in Shenton Way. This will be arranged under FISCA (Financial Services Consumer Association) with NLB and SGX. Each talk will be for 2 hours and include Q&A.
FISCA also intend to organise a 12 hour course (4 sessions of 3 hours during weekends, to cover 8 topics in more detail).
I hope to be able to hold monthly talks at the National Library in Bras Bash Road and at Singapore Exchange in Shenton Way. This will be arranged under FISCA (Financial Services Consumer Association) with NLB and SGX. Each talk will be for 2 hours and include Q&A.
FISCA also intend to organise a 12 hour course (4 sessions of 3 hours during weekends, to cover 8 topics in more detail).