The writer points out the advantage of declining population - it re-distributes power from the owner of capital to the owner of labor, and forces employers to give better working conditions to the workers. It also gives a better life to the people - less crowded public transport and highway and more living space.
The rapid increase in population in Singapore in recent years has indeed worsened living conditions in Singapore. It is a policy that is bad for the people.
http://www.populationpress.org/publication/2003-4-browne.html
The rapid increase in population in Singapore in recent years has indeed worsened living conditions in Singapore. It is a policy that is bad for the people.
http://www.populationpress.org/publication/2003-4-browne.html
"Who's afraid of declining population? Only the politicians who are obsessed with power and prestige."
ReplyDeleteThis article seems to be aiming directly at our PAP Govt. It missed one particularly unique point in the Singaporean context - AND MONEY.
Our political Elites holding high positions pay themselves the highest in the world, with many of them performing poorly, only there to retain representation for the various races, and not on meritocracy, a word always on the lips of Govt officials. The solution - just play musical chairs to lessen the heat on the poor-performing Minister.
"Obsessed With Money", increasing
population in Singapore = increasing GDP at all costs, as the political Elites' rewards go pegged in tandem with GDP Growth, the higher the GDP, the higher their pay packet.
The disastrous effect? The band of inequality becomes wider and wider, the poor becomes poorer and poorer, with their ricebowls grabbed with cheaper migrant input, at the same time the greedy Elite politicians and grinning businessmen become wealthier and wealthier.
There is no such thing as the perfect economic model for any country, if there is, then that country must be in Heaven.
Any economic policy must be tempered with a certain degree of moderation, if there is slower Growth, so be it, as a lower population would translate into higher wages for the poorer society strata. Breakneck runaway Growth always lead to runaway inflation, adding more hardship to ordinary Joes and Janes.
Wishful thinking here, as the lure and smell of money make the flesh weak, even though the spirit is willing. Money is really the root of all evils, politicians are humans also, could be just as easily tempted with money, prestige and power. Just look at the grade of all those newbie PAP MPs, they convey an image of boys and girls cuddling teddy bears, rather than holding public office, and worse of all, acting like little LKYs, imitating our honourable oldguard in behaviour and speech, but with comical results, hoping that their child-like endeavours would justify their comfortably high pay of a tag-along Greenhorn MP status.
All for lower population and lower GDP Growth to benefit all Singaporeans, and not only a select group. Dun want to be treated like numerical digits in the GDP game.
Yes , a declining population do not means a drop in standard of living for us. Instead it make us more resilient because of the lesser energy and food demands. In the coming decades, the assumption that our food, water and energy imports will be as secured and relatively cheap as today is unrealistic. We are likely facing high inflationary pressures and also increasing prevalence of food and energy disruption due to supply lagging behind demand. This will be so even if there is demand destruction by failing economies due to the fact that the population growth in the world while moderating in the western countries but still surging in India and African and Asian countries are still growing rapidly due to population momentum.
ReplyDeleteThe western consumption debt money growth financial system based on increasing consumption due to increasing population is crumbling as we see in Europe and USA and thus the impetus for large population growth is nonsense even if our population is ageing due to the ponzi nature of the current western growth mode. Moreover, increasing population only leads to increasing GDP which is a flawed measure of the people's standard of living. Please look at this article that explains why GDP is nonsense and that it only benefit the government because their salary is pegged to GDP growth.
http://www.financeandeconomics.org/Articles%20archive/2011.09.02%20Why%20GDP%20is%20nonsense.pdf
(PS. i do not fully agree with the Austrians way of doing things but they do offer great insight into the failure of the economic system today)
In my opinion, a smaller population of around 2-3 million will make us more flexible and we can deal with problems more easily by focusing on greater efficiency in our energy usage and greater emphasis on conservation. This will allow Singapore to become a more sustainable country with a higher standard of living.
I am not too convinced about the advantage of a declining population.
ReplyDeleteIn a rapidly aging population with declining birth rates, there will be a lot less working young adults to contribute to our CPF boards, insurance companies including NTUC while more claims will be made as each wave after wave of elderly population turn into the silver tsunami.
When these boards face such difficulties, premiums will rise further or more tweaks will be made to the annuity scheme to ensure just feasibility of the CPF scheme and insurance plans. The CPF is not allowed to fail as many generations have contributed. Similarly if NTUC insurance were to collapse, many SINGAPOREANs will suffer.
I don't think our current working generation is willing to sacrifice our CPF/insurance so as to achieve a better life as defined ie less crowded public transport, more living space.
Each generation will want to see that they can have their CPF as part of their retirement plan.
The solution is best to have Singaporeans produce more to replace themselves or at least allow a very gradual decline in population. More incentives for families with kids eg income tax relief, housing grants, unemployment benefits, etc.