Hi Mr. Tan,
I came across this term, "Ponzi Demography" in some blogs with links to the original article. Thought you might be interested to have a read.
"According to Ponzi demography, population growth — through natural increase and immigration — means more people leading to increased demands for goods and services, more material consumption, more borrowing, more on credit and of course more profits. Everything seems fantastic for a while — but like all Ponzi schemes, Ponzi demography is unsustainable."
Hang Lian
That is actually what Singapore is going through......
ReplyDeleteHmm, a Ponzi scheme is not sustainable but our population of 5 million now perhaps is a little too high and too rapid. The PAP has admitted their mistake in allowing too many foreigners. But it will be a mistake to see a declining population and suffer the consequences. A declining population is difficult to reverse. Just look at our birth rates. We are expanding because our economy is doing well and can support at the moment. So I suggest PAP use our resources wisely and encourage more Singporeans to have children so that we don't have to import so many foreigners. To me 20000 per year is already a lot. Increase the parental relief, increase the child tax relief, give more for Baby bonus, give more child care subsidies. Consider part time maternit leave after 4 mths of official maternity leave. Increase the paternity leave. Every chance to incentivise Singaporeans to have kids must be attempted as soon as possible, if not we will pay an even heavier price a few years down the road.
ReplyDeleteDo not wait for a declining population to effect a declining economy years down the road.
It will be a painful and expensive lesson to learn that both may be irreversible, no matter how rich Singapore is.
Mr. Tan,
ReplyDeleteYou might find this 8 part Youtube series about mathematics and growth interesting:
(Professor Albert Bartlett on exponential Growth in a finite world)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY
(I am not a Singaporean, but I rather enjoyed listening to your responses to questions during the Singaporean presidential debates.)
Best wishes.
Our Govt call this "Ponzi Demography" as running a continuous Marathon Race, cannot stop at all,else we would just collapse on the field, to be trodden over by other competitors.
ReplyDeleteSo the Ponzi game has to grow bigger and bigger like a balloon, waiting to be burst, meanwhile the ongoing Ponzi zipping around like some crazy animal, one moment minus economic growth, the next shooting up to 15%, and the next, crashing down to ?, like a yoyo dancing.
Rather have slow and steady growth, as the saying goes, there is a mountain higher than this mountain. Chasing after the perpetual bigger pot of gold, and in the process, many do not live to savour any gold garnered, they just collapse with a heart attack or die suddenly from acute lymphoma cancer. No way we would be party to this crazy Ponzi Scheme. Want to smell the flowers, can't do this here, then go abroad, come back later after Ponzi burst.
Now that us another enlighten view from yet another respectable somebody. Enough of that "go forth & multiply" command from modern day economists !
ReplyDeleteSomeone please c.c. the old man and his pet institution. The pain will come later after the juices have been squeezed dry. Best approach is to adopt a pro-Singaporean policy for all issues. Our worst enemy is fear of imagined threats. Avoid using artificial stimulus and unnatural counter-measures. Learn to fear God, allow nature to run its course, and do good to others is the right philosophy.
ReplyDelete