I met a property agent who markets the commercial space in Midview City. He told me that the property market has slowed down somewhat.
When I drove to office and returned home yesterday, I saw that the road was rather empty, which was unusual. I asked my colleague if there was some special reason, e.g. a festival, but he could not think of any. He did agree that the road was not crowded.
I went for a haircut today, and the barber's shop was empty. The barber told me that it was after the lunar new year. Strange, I though that the new year was more than a month ago.
I read that Singapore Airlines is reducing its cargo capacity by 20% due to lack of demand.
All these are signs of a possible slowing down of the economy. Any observations to share?
When I drove to office and returned home yesterday, I saw that the road was rather empty, which was unusual. I asked my colleague if there was some special reason, e.g. a festival, but he could not think of any. He did agree that the road was not crowded.
I went for a haircut today, and the barber's shop was empty. The barber told me that it was after the lunar new year. Strange, I though that the new year was more than a month ago.
I read that Singapore Airlines is reducing its cargo capacity by 20% due to lack of demand.
All these are signs of a possible slowing down of the economy. Any observations to share?
The IT services industry is one that is very prone to corruption practices, but it is the best mirror to an economic slowdown, when economy is slowing down, businesses would first KIV IT expenditure.
ReplyDeleteRight now IT business is really bad.
But it is also said the stock market is also a harbinger of an economic pick up, the market would rise six months in advance of a reversal, and is this happening now?
Hopefully, American MNCs inventory purchases are real, and not a result of just filling up past requirement shortages arising from the Thai floods and the Japanese tsunami, and after fulfillment, further purchases are stopped abruptly, nobody wan to stock up on spares unnecessarily any more.
And then the economic arrow dip down again, stoking fears of a double bottom.
Hi Mr Tan,
ReplyDeleteThe stock market seems to be suggesting the opposite. Maybe it is the bottom, that's why things look bad? But I would like to hear the observations of your other readers.
Talking about the stock market, readers of this blog who followed TKL and bought into STI ETF before Jan 1st, when it is trading around $2.70, would have made a tiny sum of 10% now, all within less than 2 months.
ReplyDeleteCongratulations to those who followed Tan's advice, woe betide those who are skeptical. Nobody knows better the timing entry into this plain vanilla ETF than TKL.
Credit has to be given when it's due.
@yuyuan. I am not able to accept credit for my advice. My advice is for the long term, and for the short term, it can go up or down. If it goes down, I will also tell my readers - my advice is for the long term, i.e. next 10 to 20 years.
ReplyDeleteTechnically, STI is at the stage of consolidating. Fundamentally, much depends on the strength of both US and China's economies for STI to gain more momentum. My personal opinion only.
ReplyDeleteMost people would not invest in STI ETF to trade for the short term only, then may as well gamble on Genting S'pore stock.
ReplyDeleteThis ETF is the safest investment in the stock portfolio to hold. However, no matter how safe a stock is, timing decision entry is important, it's called calculated risk based on fundamental and technical analysis.
It's a lousy feeling to buy a safe stock in the morning, to find it crashing in the afternoon based on bad fundamental news, but if both fundamental and technical factors meet favourably, then it's time to enter.
A lot of difference to buy STI ETF for the long term at $2.70 and $3.14. Sometimes we need someone to jolt us out of negative thinking, and reclaim our suppressed, kiasi logic on when to enter the market.
If the rule of thumb is correct, that is stock market is about 6 months ahead of economy, then Singapore economy should have couple more months of tough time. It will start to recover around May-June.
ReplyDeleteOn global scale, I think The World economy is on the mend. After 4 to 5 years of deleveraging, maybe 2012 is the year of global recovery