Saturday, March 10, 2018

Is the government being honest by announcing a GST hike in advance?

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - Is the government being honest by announcing a GST hike in advance?

72% said that the government is not honest in disclosing the reason for this strange decision. 8% said they were surprised by the large budget surplus. 7% said they realized that they did not need the hike after all.

This makes a total of 87%.

Only 13% said that the hike is necessary in a few years time.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=521

Forego increase in minister's salary

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - Do you agree with the government decison to forego the increase in minister's salary?

59% of those who replied said the salary is too high and should be reduced. 31% said that the benchmark is flawed. This makes a total of 90%.

10% said that it is a good gesture for the ministers to forego the salary increase.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=522

Are we paranoid about cyber security?

The government is worried about cyber security. They consider it a big risk. They want to put a lot of resources to combat this risk. They want to train a lot of cyber experts.

They want to strengthen cyber security for the government agencies and the business community.

I think they may be over-reacting to the risk and may be putting in a lot of resources that will be costly, and will also make life difficult for the ordinary users.

To deal with the risk or hype of cyber security, we need to apply our common sense and identify the risks that are real and those that are not critical.

You hear about hackers who intrude into database and download customer data, and worse, publish the data into websites.

If the information concerns name, telephone numbers and email addresses, it does not really matter. In the old days, when telephone directories are published, the name, address and telephone numbers are available. They are not kept private, unless the subscriber request the data to be unlisted.

It may be more harmful if the password is disclosed. The concern is that the hacker can use the password to access other websites of that person using the same password.

Really? There must be a million records that are published. The risk that someone is going to hack into a specific person's account is one in a million (less than the risk of dying in an accident). Who wants to take the trouble, unless he or she is targeting a specific person. And that would be a crime, right?

Even the publication of personal data in a website is a crime. It is easy to ask the owner to take down the website. If the culprit can be caught, he can be sent to jail.

There is the risk that the hacker can alter the data. This risk can be better protected by having an audit trial to highlight unauthorised alteration to the data. Once detected, there are backups to establish the correct the correct data.

Actually, it is not easy to hack into a database and alter the data. It require a professional hacker. Still, it is a risk that require some protection, but one need not be paranoid about it. It is similar to the risk that someone will fire a rocket into my home, and that can be more harmful.

We must not overlook the real risk that our own employees could be the people responsible to alter the data. There are more employees than professional hackers.

Knowing this risk from internal people, I prefer to rely on an effective audit system to highlight unauthorised alteration of data (whether from internal people or external hackers) rather than to over-invest in sophisticaled cyber security measures.

I write this article to generate a discussion about the real risk of cyber security. I may have over looked some of the real risks, and I welcome someone pointing them out.

I assure these experts that I am aware about the things that professional hackers can do, but I look at the practical outcome. Is it so serious? I also live each day knowing that someone can shoot me with a gun or break into my home and office to steal my assets.

As my friends know, I do not have a paranoid fear of things that I do not really understand. I apply my common sense to them.

Tan Kin Lian

Friday, March 09, 2018

The buffet syndrome in health care services

The health minister used the term "buffet syndrome" to describe the unnecessary and over-comsumption of health care services. He blamed the patients for this behavior. He thinks that the patients like to consumer the services because it is free, i.e. paid by insurance or largely subsidised by the government.

The minister is mistaken. I am not referring only to the current minister, but to the previous ministers. This mistaken belief had been prevalent for three decades.

I have not found any evidence of patients who like to consume health care because it is free or largely subsidised.

The over consumption is largely due to doctors and hospitals. They are running a business. If they can get the patients to consume more, they earn a larger income or profit.

Some doctors and hospitals will prescribe more treatment to generate the income and profit. I am not suggesting that all doctors and hospitals behave in this manner. But the anecdotal evidence does suggest that this is quite prevalent.

To overcome the over comsumption, attention should be focused on the doctors and hospitals, rather than the patients.

The patients do not have a choice. They depend on the doctors for advice on what is necessary. Even if they ask for a second opinion, it does not help much in most situations.

Asking patients to make a co-payment does not solve the problem. Most patients will buy insurance, known as a "rider" to cover the co-payments.

Restricting the scope fo the rider will also not solve the problem. Most patients are not able to make the sensible choice.

To stop the over-consumption and explosion of health care cost, the ministry of health has to step in. They have to set system to prevent the over consumption of services and the over charging for these services.

We can study the system adopted in Japan. Each year, the ministry of health negotiates with the doctors and hospitals on the cost of providing each type of treatment. This negotiation produces charges that are adequate for doctors and hospitals to cover their expenses and earn an adequate income and prevent the over charging for these expenses. It also ensure that the charges are reasonable from the perspective of the patient and the government, which bears 70% of the cost.

As there is sufficient demand for the services, there is no need for the doctors and hospitals to generate unnecessary demand to increase their income.

I believe that there is a system for the ministry of health to audit the provision of the services. i do not know if this is the case. It should be possible for this kind of audit to be carried out.

Tan Kin Lian

What are your views about Chan Chun Sing?

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - What are your views about Chan Chun Sing?

Here are the top votes:

He is arrogant and think highly of his capabilities - 67%
He is somewhat immature and inexperienced - 24%
He comes from a humble background and can connect with the people - 4%
He is capable and confident and can lead Singapore well - 4%.

91% have a negative view of him.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=519

Should people attend the protest in Hong Lim Park against the proposed increase in GST?

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - Should people attend the protest in Hong Lim Park against the proposed increase in GST?

Here are the votes:

We must make our voices heard even if the government does not care to listen - 52%
We must tell the government that GST should be reduced or abolished - 30%
We should keep GST at the current level - 11%
We must increase GST to allow the government to spend more on social benefits - 7%.

82% are against the proposed increase in GST. 18% support it.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=520

Vote on these issues in the Wisdom of the Crowd

What are your views about Ong Ye Kung?

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What are your views about Heng Swee Keat?

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Do you support the government's plan to increase GST to provide more social benefits

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Thursday, March 08, 2018

What is the best way for the government to reduce the financial stress for the people?

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - What is the best way for the government to reduce the financial stress for the people?

The top choices of those who voted are:

Reduce unfair competition for jobs from foreigners - 53%
Remove GST entirely - 20%
Make health care affordable - 20%
Reduce NS obligations - 7%

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=516

Do we need to continue a high budget for defense?

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - Do we need to continue a high budget for defense?

Here are the top choices from the people who voted:

We can reduce the defense budget and still maintain a high level of security - 63%
We can reduce the defense budget and use the money to help the low income people - 16%
We can reduce the defense budget to match the level spent by neighboring countries - 8%

The total of these three choices is 87%.

The remaining 13% said that a high defense budget is necessary for our security.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=517

Will the higher levy on air travellers using Changi Airport spell trouble for Singapore?

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - Will the higher levy on air travellers using Changi Airport spell trouble for Singapore?

The top choices from those who voted are:

It will add to the high cost - 47%
Some passengers will avoid flying through Singapore - 18%
IATA has expressed strong views against it - 16%

A total of 81% of the votes is against the higher level

The remaining 19% support the higher levy.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=518

Wednesday, March 07, 2018

If the government scraps the planned increase in GST, what would be your response?

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - If the government scraps the planned increase in GST, what would be your response?

57% of those who voted were sceptical. They said, "Maybe pigs will fly".
31% voted that they might scrap GST to win more votes.
The remaining 12% chose three other reasons.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=513

Are successful hawkers still able to make a big fortune?

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - Are successful hawkers still able to make a big fortune?

82% said that it is difficult for various reasons. 21% said that they can make a fortune if they are good and willing to work long hours.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=514

How do you describe PM Lee?

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - How do you describe PM Lee?

Here are the replies:
Intelligent and competent - 6%
Friendly and approachable - 3%
Work for the good of the people - 3%
Kind and generous - 0%
None of the above - 88%

The overall score is VERY BAD.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=515

Vote on these issues in The Wisdom of the Crowd

Is Sylvia Lim's remark about the trial balloon offensive?

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Do you expect North Korea to abandan their nuclear development in 2018?

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Tuesday, March 06, 2018

Simulation website for Taxi Booking algorithm

I have improved the algorithm to simulate the movement of taxis. You can view the results here. It now shows the situation every hour for the past 12 hours.

http://tklcloud.com/Taxi/monitor.aspx

It also shows the average earnings of the drivers for 8, 10 and 12 hours of work. The average earnings are high because the booking algorithm is more efficient.

You can watch the video here:
http://tklcloud.com/Taxi/video.aspx?ID=20

This algorithm is better than the algorithm used by Uber, Grab and taxi companies.

What are the obstacles that prevent Singapore firms from reaching out to global markets?

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - What are the obstacles that prevent Singapore firms from reaching out to global markets?

The top votes go to
Inability to innovate - 38%
High cost of doing business in Singapore - 30%
Obstacles created by government agencies - 20%
Inability to move out of Singapore - 12%.

Roughly, half of the blame goes to our business leaders and the other half goes to government policies.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=510

Can Singapore afford to remove GST?

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - Can Singapore afford to remove GST?

Here are the replies:
74% of the people who voted support this move for two reasons. The remaining 26% like to retain GST for 3 reasons.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=511

By the way, I debunked the three reason in my speech in Hong Lim Park on 3 March 2018.

Is it good for China to remove the 2 term limit for their President and Vice President?

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - Is it good for China to remove the 2 term limit for their President and Vice President?

73% of those who voted are against this move for two reasons. 27% support the move for two reasons.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=509

Monday, March 05, 2018

Saudi Airport contract

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - Why did the Saudi Airport authority cancel the 20 year contract with Changi Airport Group?

40% of those who voted said that bribery was involved. 35% said that the price was too high.

You can see the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=508

Sunday, March 04, 2018

GST should be abolished and does not need to be replaced

GST has been harmful to Singapore. It has increased the cost of living and the cost of doing business. It has led to our economic decline over the past three decades. It is totally unnecessary.

The best way to deal with this serious problem is to abolish GST. The government has sufficient revenue and does not need to replace GST with income tax or other taxes.

Find out why GST is unnecessary and harmful.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gZ4gG06phM&t=13s

Vote on these issues in The Wisdom of the Crowd

What is the best way for the government to deal with "fake news"?
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Do you agree with PM Lee's praise of Low TK's speech on the role of Singapore?

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Law against fake news

Mr. Tan
The best way to combat fake news is to give the true facts and let the people judge for themselves.

If the people in authority continues to hide the facts, ordinary people will make all kinds of speculation. Some may be untrue, but they are not fake. The main cause is the lack of transparency in the first place.

The most powerful man in the world is also responsible for sending out facts that are not true using his Twitter account. Should be be charged and jailed for sending out "fake news"?

After a while, people know how to judge his tweets. They come out with the facts. The media also plays a part in presenting the facts through "fact checks".

Let us not forget that government also present only the positive aspects of the facts and downplay the negative aspects. Are they also responsible for giving "fake news"?

REPLY
I think you are referring to the new law that is now being considered by a Parliamentary committee. I understand that they intend to act on people who are deliberate in spreading lies.

I agree that it is difficult to tell the difference whether it was a genuine mistake or a deliberate attempt to spread falsehoods.







I do not know how the Parliamentary committee intends to deal with it in the law. Maybe, they will leave it to the judge to make a decision based on the facts.