Simulation of general election 2020

Mr. Tan,
I have looked at your simulation of the general election due on 2020. I do not believe the results. I think they simulations are incredible. Are they fake news?

Reply
I agree with you.
They are as incredible as Donald Trump being elected as President of the United States. Right?

Here are the simulated results.
If you do not agree with the extreme simulations, you can select and view the more moderate simulation with swing less than 25%.
http://tklcloud.com/Election/const2.aspx

If you are still not happy, you can do you own simulation and choose the factors that are not so bad for the PAP. Here is the link:
http://tklcloud.com/Election/const.aspx

How to deal with "deliberate fake news"

I will now give my views about the current attempt by the government to pass legislation to deal with "deliberate fake news". I understand that the government wish to pass a law to impose penalties on the people involved.

I will deal with these questions:

a) What is real news and what is fake news?
b) How to identify a malicious intent from a mistake, a joke or just an opinion?
c) Should the culpability be extended to the platform or website owner?

The large social media owners have testified to the select parliamentary committee that they do not have the ability to judge what is real news and what is fake news.

I agree with their view. It is impossible for them to deal with this matter when there are millions of posts that are put up each day on their platform.

A practical approach is for them to act when a party, who is affected by the fake news, raises an objection. The platform owner can remove the posting, if they agree that the objection is legitimate.

The aggrieved party can also ask the platform owner to post a correction to the fake news. This is the approach taken by Mr. Lee Kuan Yew one or two decade earlier. It is a fair and practical approach.

To be fair, the correction should not be longer than the original post. Exceptions can be made.

I will now deal with another matter. Suppose someone puts up a fake news. So what?

Why do I say so? Common sense will tell us about the following:

a) Not many people read the fake news.
b) Even if it is circulated virally, not many people will believe it.

There is therefore no need for the government to deal with this matter by passing any law, especially a law that may be ambigious and cause other problems, such as the curtailment of free speech or the right to express an opinon, or even to criticise the government for an unjust or dishonest act.

The best way to deal with fake news is to put up the real facts and let the people judge for themselves. We have to trust that most people have common sense and are decent people. They do not believe in any untruths or half truths that are pushed to them. Some of these half truths are put up by the government itself.

If we look at what is happening in America, we will realise the magnitude of the problem. President Trump makes statements that are considered outrageous by many people with common sense. But he believed in these statements. He is also the most powerful person in America and maybe the whole world. If there is a law against deliberate fake news, how will President Trump be judged and who will judge him?

Mental block with the name "Lee"

I may be getting dementia. I had a very good friend. His name is Kum Tatt. He was a great scientist. But I forgot his surname. Was it Chan, Wong or Tan?

After raking my memory, I remembered. It was Lee Kum Tatt. He passed away about 10 years ago.

Next. the prime minister of Singapore. I know that his initial is LHL. I also remember his name as Hsien Loong. But I forgot his surname.

Is it Lim, Low or Loo?

After much effort, I remembered that it was a Lee.

It seemed that I faced a mental block when it comes to a "Lee". I don't know why.

OK, this is just a joke. It is not fake news, OK?

Here is the link to tell you more about my friend, Lee Kum Tatt

http://leekumtatt.blogspot.sg/

An anomaly will be removed by year end

At last. All rail networks will come under the "open system". It is long overdue!
Welcome to Singapore!

'Open system'
No additional charges for transfers between different rail lines by the year end

At the end of this year, commuters will no longer have to pay an additional boarding charge when they transfer between MRT or LRT stations on different lines within 15 minutes. The move to treat the rail network as an "open system" comes as it becomes denser, with more rail lines slated to open in the coming years, said Public Transport Council chief executive Tan Kim Hong.

Terrorists do not need to depend on social media

Josephine Teo said:

Quote:
In several overseas incidents, police forces had appealed to the public not to transmit or broadcast videos of ongoing operations, to protect the safety of their officers and the public,” said Second Minister for Home Affairs Josephine Teo in Parliament. “But this is usually not effective. Cases of individuals and media knowingly transmitting and broadcasting are common, even when they are told the information may lead to the loss of lives.
Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/…/ban-photos-videos-message…
Unquote:

I think that she had exaggerated the point. The terrorists would be too busy to watch the social media and the videos that are being shared.There must be tens of thousand of these feeds. There is also the risk that some of these feeds are unreliable or fake.

A strange reason to increase public transport fares

I read this news summary:

Public transport fares could rise after revision to fare formula
Announcing the revised fare formula on Thursday (March 22), the Public Transport Council said the new component, called Network Capacity Factor, will track the structural changes to operating costs as a result of the changes in capacity and usage attributed to the growing rail network. This means that fares will increase if the capacity growth in the public transport network outstrips ridership growth.

My comment:
It seems that the fare will increase when the capacity is not fully used. It does not seem to make economic sense. Normally, the fare should drop when there is excess supply to encourage demand.

OK. We are talking here of a monopoly and inelasticity of supply. Even if the fare increases, people still have to take public transport. They have to pay the higher fare.

In that case, why are we increasing supply in excess of actual demand? It seems that our planners have got their plans wrong!

Welcome to Singapore!

Will tourists avoid Singapore?

The flight back from Sydney to Singapore was almost full. Two British girls, who finished High School, sat next to me. They stayed one month in Sydney and were on the way to Bangkok. They stopped in Singapore for the connecting flight but will not stay in Singapore.

I wonder if they found Singapore to be too expensive?

At the immigration counters, I saw more Singaporeans at the automated gates than the foreigners at the manned counters. It is the first time that I saw more locals than foreigners.

Maybe, it is once off? Or maybe some people are already avoiding Singapore due to the higher levy?

Airport charge is already quite high

The price for my return ticket to Sydney on Scoot was $450. The breakdown was:

Air fare $280 (62%)
Airport charges and levy $170 (38%)

For $280, Scoot had to ferry me for 9 hours to Sydney and another 9 hours back, and all the fuel. They also provide the captain and cabin crew. They did not provide meals, as I have to pay for them separately.

For $170, Changi and Sydney airports provide the check-in staff, and security check. It seemed quite a lot for an hour of service. This fee will soon increase due to the additional levy for Terminal 5.

When will Lee HL and his ministers realize that we are already far too expensive!

Costly to process the claim under the integrated plan

When you submit a claim for hospital treatment under an integrated plan, the claims officer has to go through the following steps to process the claim:

a) Determine if the treatment is covered under the policy by looking at the coverage and exclusions.
b) Check with your previous doctors to see if you had failed to disclose previous medical condition when you applied for the integrated plan. Your claim could be rejected due to non-disclosure.
c) Look at the individual items of the bill to see which items are covered, and which are not, and see in the amount under each item exceed the "inner limit".
d) See how much of the bill can be paid after applying the deductible and the co-insurance.
e) Determine how much of the claim is covered under Medishield Life and can be claimed from the Central Provident Fund.
f) Determine how much of the bill can be paid through Medisave, which has its own set of rules
g) Finally, you are likely to bear a portion of the bill in cash.

Processing of the claim can take a lot of work and can add to the cost of the insurance. This is reflected in the premium that you have to pay for the integrated plan.

The insurance company has also to incur the expense of marketing the plan, issuing the policy, collecting the premium, etc.

We have a complicated system which is costly to administer. It adds up to the cost of insurance.

I like the system used in Japan. The patient has to pay the fee that is negotiated and fixed. 70% of the bill is paid by the government or insurance. The patient pays the remaining 30%.

I think that the patient can buy insurance to cover the 30% or have it paid by the employer. It seems to be much simpler than the complicated system adopted here.

Welcome to Singapore.

Tan Kin Lian

What is the best way to control the escalation of medical charges

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - What is the best way to control the escalation of medical charges

40% said we should set a medical fee guideline for each treatment.

36% said we should negotiate the fee for each treatment at national level.

24% said that the government should audit the fee charged for each treatment that exceed the benchmark.

None said that a co-payment should be imposed.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=541

What are your views about the abrupt change in the US secretary of state

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - What are your views about the abrupt change in the US secretary of state

33% said that President Trump is unpredicatable and dangerous.

33% said that nothing will happen. We will just prod along.

29% said that America will get into more diplomatic disagreement with other countries.

A total of 62% are negative towards this abrupt change.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=542

Should Singapore send troops to Iraq?

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - Should Singapore send troops to Iraq?

50% of those who voted said No, as our national interest is not at stake.

50% said that the peope must be told the reason for this involvement and give their support

Nobody voted for the other two reasons to support this ove.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=543

Vote on these issues

You can vote on these issues in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

a) Should the government reserve public sector jobs only for locals?
b) Should the government give a wage subsidy to private sector employers to employ locals?

Should schools start later in the morning?

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - Should schools start later in the morning?

48% of those who voted said that it will give the children more time to have a good sleep and be more attentive in the class.

26% said the current time allow parents to fetch their children to school on the way to work.

17% said it will help to reduce traffic congestion in the morning.

8% said it is better to instil the discipline of waking up early in the morning.

A total of 65% are in favor of staring schools later in the morning.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=540

What is the best way to control the spiraling cost of health care?

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - What is the best way to control the spiraling cost of health care?

58% of those who voted said that the ministry of health should negotiate with the providers on the fees to be charged for most medical procedures.

42% said that the ministry should audit the billings of hospitals to identify the unnecessary procedures.

There was no vote for the other two measures. None of the voters think that the co-payments will help to control the spiiraling cost.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=539

What happens when a new government runs Singapore?

Many people do not like the PAP. But they are more worried about leaving the government to the alternative parties. They ask - can a coalition of these alternative parties run the government?

I can understand their concern. It is too risky to leave their future and the future of their children to the unknown.

Are we then stuck with the PAP and their bad policies? These policies had made life very costly, very stressful and very difficult to the local Singaporeans.


I will not dwell on the reasons why the PAP pursue these bad policies. Rather, I like to identify what are the big challenges facing the people and what can be done to deal with these challenges.

The big challenges are:

a) High cost of living
b) High cost of doing business causing us to lose out on global competition.
c) Insecurity of jobs for local Singaporeans caused by being replaced by cheaper foreign workers.
d) High cost of health care
e) High stress caused by excessive and unnecessary competition in schools and the workplace

These challenges, who have not been addressed, have resulted in a low and declining birth rate during the past three decades. Our national birth rate is now the lowest among all the countries. I see this as the key indicator of the failure of the policies pursued by the PAP.

How can these challenges be addressed?

We need a new government that can make major changes to the policies of the current government to address these challenges. I believe that we need to make these changes:

a) Abolish GST
b) Reserve public sector jobs for local Singaporeans
c) Help the private sector to be competitive by reducing the cost of doing business and the cost of employing local Singaporeans.
d) Have a more efficient and less costly system of providing health care to the people.
e) Have a transparent and more effective system of managing big expenditure on infrastructure, defense and other types of government spending.

I will be covering these changes in more detail in separate posts and videos.

If a large proportion of voters like the changes and are willing to vote for leaders who believe in these changes, we can minimise the unknown when a new government comes into power.

If the goals are clear, the new government will be able to attract capable people in the public and private sector to implement these goals. If they adopt a transparent approach, they can overcome the unexpected difficulties by using collective wisdom and common sense. It is not that difficult.

I hope that many voters will be wiling to take the risk by voting for leaders who support a clear alternative strategy to the current PAP policies.

Vote on these issues in The Wisdom of the Crowd

Can patients trust their doctors to be ethical and avoid over servicing?
Will PM Lee's efforts as chair of ASEAN benefit Singapore?
What will happen to the US Dollar when China sells a large holding of US Treasuries?
How will China respond to strong tariffs imposed by President Trump?

Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Did the government floated a "test balloon" on the GST hike?

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - Did the government floated a "test balloon" on the GST hike?

42% of these who voted said that they agreed with Sylvia Lim that the government did float a test balloon.

42% said that the PAP was not honest in disclosing the real reason for this decision to implement the GST hike in a few year's time.

15% said that the government did intend to hike GST earlier but were surprised by the unexpected surplus of $9.6 billion.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=536

Will the "test ballon" saga in Parliament affect the votes at the next general election?

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - Will the "test ballon" saga in Parliament affect the votes at the next general election?

34% of those who voted said that the voters will worry about the calibre of the 4th generation ministers.

29% said that people will still vote PAP when the government gives them some goodies.

26% said that people have formed a bad opinion of the 4th generation leaders.

10% said that people will forget about this matter soon.

A total 0f 60% said that it will reduce the votes for the PAP. 40% said that it will not have any impact.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=537

What is your opinion of the PAP ministers involved in the "test balloon" saga?

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - What is your opinion of the PAP ministers involved in the "test balloon" saga?

56% of those who voted said that they are hypocrites and bullies.

34% said that they are not honest in disclosing the real reason for the strange GST hike decision.

9% said that they behave like small children.

Nobody think that they are dedicated and can run the country to a hide standard of conduct.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=538

Remove the deductible under Medishield Life

I have suggested that the deductible be removed from basic medishield and the integrated plans.

The deductible currently varies from $1,000 to $1,500. The patient has to pay the deductible before claiming under the medishield or integrated plan. Many people buy a rider to cover the deductible.

I suggest that consumers be allowed to cover the deductible under basic medishield by paying a higher premium. This will save them the additional cost of buying the rider from an insurance company.

They need to move to the integrated plan to buy the rider. The premium for the rider is higher than the cost of insuring the deductible as it involves marketing and administration expenses.

Tan Kin Lian

Why are there more floods in Singapore in recent years?

Rachel Ash said:

Mr Tan.
There was no reports on "ponding" before during Sir Stamford Raffles time. It all has to do with modernization. Rainwater needs to run off into somewhere and often this mean into drains, then river and finally the sea. Also rainwater seeps into the ground and finds the water table. Unfortunately, we have built ourselves a concrete jungle where rainwater mainly run off into man-made drains/canals which becomes increasingly insufficient.

I believe this issue has more impart than the Barrage. The more important question, I keep asking myself, year after year, decades after decades, there is always some widening/ deepening works on our drains/canals like our Bukit Timah canal but we are experiencing more episodes of ponding.

The most irritating thing I find that despite many ponding areas occurring in Singapore, our authorities NEVER issue us residents with fishing rods.

On a more serious note: is this a case of poor planning, penny wise pound foolish (like our MTR maintenance neglect). poor coordination among our agencies, stubborn and cocky (fail to listen to industry expert and rely on the wrong people for advice (ministers), part of their plan to have constant infra-structure projects to boost GDP numbers to earn fat bonuses or ............

REPLY
Each fishing rod cost $5. Can you buy it from the SG bonus of $100 to $300 that Heng SK is giving to you?

Vote on these issues in The Wisdom of the Crowd

Is the Singapore economy in good shape?

Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Does the Marina Barrage help to reduce flooding in Singapore?

Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Should the deductible under basic Medishield be removed?

Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg