This is my lay man's prediction, based on common sense and gut feel.
China now produces 95% of the world's production of rare earth.
The experts say that America can source for rare earth from other countries.
But it will take at least 6 to 12 months (just my guess), for the alternative sources to become commercial available. In the meantime, any ban from China will create havoc to America's high tech industries.
I believe that this can be more serious than what the experts say (i.e that America can get rare earths from other countries).
I expect that America and China will strike an agreement on their trade dispute at the G20 talk between Trump and Xi. So, you can expect the stock market to rebound.
After than, America will try to get rare earth from other sources and come back to another dispute during Trump's second term - assuming that he gets re-elected.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare_earth_industry_in_China
China now produces 95% of the world's production of rare earth.
The experts say that America can source for rare earth from other countries.
But it will take at least 6 to 12 months (just my guess), for the alternative sources to become commercial available. In the meantime, any ban from China will create havoc to America's high tech industries.
I believe that this can be more serious than what the experts say (i.e that America can get rare earths from other countries).
I expect that America and China will strike an agreement on their trade dispute at the G20 talk between Trump and Xi. So, you can expect the stock market to rebound.
After than, America will try to get rare earth from other sources and come back to another dispute during Trump's second term - assuming that he gets re-elected.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare_earth_industry_in_China
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