Vote on these issues

A reminder. Vote on the current issues where.
https://wisdomofthecrowd.sg/active_issue.aspx

Get a certificate for completing the Business Simulation Game

The business simulation game allows you to practice pricing and marketing of your product and to decide on the amount of stock that you need to keep.

You are competing against other players in this game.

Click here to view a video showing how the game can be played.
http://tklcloud.com/BSG/video.aspx?ID=4

Click here to try your game. You can join an existing game or create a new game.
http://tklcloud.com/BSG/Join_game.aspx
After you have completed all the rounds, you will receive a certificate. (see below).

https://tankinlian.com/ArticleDisplay.aspx?ID=1504

WOTC - Stop fake news

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd:
How can hate news be stopped from social media?

Here are the responses: (41 Votes)
54 % - Require all comments to be posed from authenticated accounts.
34 % - Ask the platform admin to delete the hate news.
12 % - Pass a law against hate news.
0 % - Ask the police to knock on the door.

See the pie chart at:
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=1259

Investor (foreigner) asked about Hyflux

Dear Mr. Tan,

This is to thank you for your speech at Hong Lim Park. I watched it on YouTube yesterday.

I am a German national, who while residing in Singapore some years ago, bought some Hyflux perpetual bonds, which I am partly still holding.


Also myself was considering it to be a strategic company for Singapore.

Additional, the fact that it was a retail bond made me believe that it would be a general safe investment. Most bonds are not available for ordinary people, because of the high denominations of 250k.

How come the few bonds selected to be retail bonds then can be of “high risk” ? How are MAS regulations on this?

How can it be that “high risk” bonds are available via ATM, in a otherwise strict system where the banks require endless of paper to asses your risk profile?

Also I was very disappointed about the no bail out comment of the Minister, the other day.

Wasn’t it Singapore who was bailed out the Swiss bank UBS with 10 billion in 2007?

Wondering how many Singaporean retail investors had their investments at risk at UBS at that time. My guess is none.

Since I am a foreign national I will not participate in any dialog with the government, but this would had been the questions I would had liked to get an answer to.

Once again, thank you for speaking up on behalf of the investors.

Reduce the cost of litigation (2)

It is too costly to fight a case in court. The lawyer fees are too high. They can get out of control. Ordinary people cannot afford the high cost. They do not have access to justice.

I now give my suggestion to reduce the cost of litigation.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=1318

WOTC - Non chinese PM for Singapore

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd:

Is Singapore ready for a non Chinese prime minister?

Here are the responses: (46 Votes)

43 % - Yes. 
41 % - Yes, but PAP is not ready.
9 % - Not yet. Wait a few more years.
7 % - Never. We are racist.

See the pie chart at: 
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=1258

WOTC - Help retail investors of Hyflux

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd:

What should we do to help the Hyflux retail investors?

Here are the responses: (45 Votes)

42 % - The government agencies, PUB and EMA, should change some of the contractual terms which were unfair to Hyflux.
31 % - The government should bear a portion of the losses which were caused by government decisions.
18 % - We should stand in solidarity with them and help find a way to mitigate their loss.
9 % - The investors should take the loss as they were greedy for higher returns.

See the pie chart at: 
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=1257

Flat or increasing annuity?

Assumption:
a) You are now 65 years old
b) You can buy a life annuity to pay $600 a month. But this is a flat annuity.
c) You can buy an annuity that increases by 2% every year to cover inflation. However, your starting annuity is $500 a month.
d) Both annuity yield 4% p.a.
e) You are in good health and you do not need to leave a legacy for your children - or maybe you provided for them separately.
Which annuity do you choose?

Fixed annuity vs life annuity

Here are the assumptions:
a) You have $100,000 at age 65
b) You are in good health
c) You do not need to give any legacy to your children
d) You can buy a 20 year annuity to pay a monthly sum of $600 for 20 years (yield of 4% p.a.). If you die before 20 years, the balance is paid to your estate. If you live beyond 20 years, you get nothing.
e) Alternatively, you can buy a life annuity to provide $600 a month for a lifetime, which could be shorter or longer than 20 years.
f) The average life expectancy for a person at age 65 is 20 years.
Which type of annuity do you choose?

Paying the generators for electricity

I believe that the Energy Market Authority operates a complicated system to handle the supply of electricity to the national grid. This complicated system has led to distortions and unpredictable prices. It has caused serious losses to Hyflux.

I suggest a better way to handle the market. We do not need to have a complicated system of auctioning the supply of electricity. We can devise a fairly pricing mechanism.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=1310

Vote on these issues in Wisdom of the Crowd

https://wisdomofthecrowd.sg/active_issue.aspx

WOTC - Increase our birth rate

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd:

Should Singapore take measures to increase our birth rate?

Here are the responses: (39 Votes)

67 % - Yes. This will ensure that Singapore will continue to survive in the future.
26 % - Yes, it will generate domestic demand and lead to a vibrant economy.
8 % - No. Most people do not want to have children.
0 % - No. We can import foreigners and make them citizens.

See the pie chart at: 
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=1256

WOTC - Did PAP do a good job?

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd:

Did the PAP do a good job in running Singapore during the past four years?

Here are the responses: (48 Votes)

52 % - They did a poor job.
31 % - They are a disaster.
17 % - They did a reasonably good job.
0 % - They did an excellent job.

See the pie chart at: 
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=1255

How to deal with the CPF mess

In this article, I describes the CPF mess and suggest the changes that are needed to fix the mess.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=1305

How Aesop dealt with "fake news"

Do you remember the Aesop fable about the little boy who cry wolf?

He cried "wolf" out of mischief. The villagers stopped work and hurried to deal with the wolf. They realized that they were fooled.

The boy did it again. The villagers responded and found that they were fooled.

When the boy did it the third time, the villagers ignored him. They did not respond to his cry. And there was actually a wolf that attacked his sheep.

This fable showed how the people dealt with "fake news" in the olden days. They learn what is true and ignore the "fake news".

If Mr. Shanmugam was the adviser to the village head, he would have asked the head to pass a law to deal with fake news. And he would make it his role to decide what is fake and what is true.

Tan Kin Lian

Administrator for Fake News Law

I agree with the intent of the fake news law. We should stop people from deliberately creating and sharing fake news. If they do it unintentionally, they should be asked and allowed to make the correction.

Most people probably share the same view.

However, they seem to object to the approach taken in the implementation. The minister appears to be the person who decide of what is "fake news".

Here are my suggestions:
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=1301

Vote on these issues

Vote these issues in the Wisdom of the Crowd

https://wisdomofthecrowd.sg/active_issue.aspx

WOTC - Vote at next general election

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd:

Who will you vote for at the next general election

Here are the responses: (51 Votes)

55 % - Non PAP, with no precondition
29 % - Non PAP provided the candidate is credible
12 % - Non PAP provided that they are united under a coalition.
4 % - PAP

See the pie chart at: 
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=1254

WOTC - How will UK leave the EU?

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd:

How will the UK leave the EU?

Here are the responses: (42 Votes)

36 % - The UK will conduct a new referendum and vote to remain in the EU
29 % - No deal exit
21 % - It will be delayed by another year.
14 % - The UK Parliament will approve the deal negotiated by the PM May.

See the pie chart at: 
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=1253

Clean up the HDB mess

Many people still do not realize that we have a "big HDB mess" and that the government is not able to find a solution.

I offer a solution, but it is not a perfect solution. The mess is so large that there is no perfect solution.

It is a fact that the HDB flat will have no value at the end of the lease.

Even though the owner paid a large sum for the flat, even though the owner has served national service, it does not change this legal fact.

Here are my thoughts.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=1297


Here are my suggestions to clean up the HDB Mess.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=1300

No bail out for Hyflux?

No bail out for Hyflux

It is easy for people to mutter the words, "the govt should not use tax payers money to bail out Hyflux". Even the highly paid Minister for Water Resources muttered these words.

As an intelligent minister, I would expect him to spend some time to understand the part that his own agency, the Public Utilities Board, played in the saga. It was the tender condition - to quote a price with no adjustment for the future cost of power, that probably prompted Hyflux to enter into the power market. Was he aware that PUB asked the price to be fixed for a concession period of 25 years?

He should also consider this point - why does PUB offer the tender to Hyflux when they have seriously under-quoted the price of water, i.e. 35 cents per cu meter when the next lowest tender was 52 cents and other tenders were at $1.00?

I know that the board and management of Hyflux should take the blame for their bad commercial decision and mistake in under-quoting the price.

Still, it it the role of the Public Utilities Board to give a poison pill to Hyflux so that they can be destroyed?

It may be a little more troublesome for him to understand the role played by another agency, i.e. the Energy market Authority. in this saga, especially as it comes under another ministry. But because so many people are badly affected, he should take the trouble before muttering the convenient words.

Is the minister aware that the EMA had given out "vesting contracts" to new power generating companies to bring additional electricity supply into the market way beyond the actual demand?

It is this additional supply that depressed the wholesale electricity price from $125 in 2011 (when the tender was awarded to Hyflux) to $63 in 2016, when the Hyflux power plant came into operation.

Because the honorable minister said "no bail out", many other people just follow and shout "no bail out".

It does not seem to be a fair way of dealing with the losses of 34,000 investors who put in $900 million of their hard earned savings.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=1299

Offensive lyrics in popular songs

I am puzzled by the action of the home affairs minister to pass the "offensive lyrics" of some popular songs to the MPs in Parliament. Click here.

Is he trying to tell me that the MPs got nothing to do, but to discuss these "offensive lyrics" ?

Who are the people who were offended by the lyrics? Before the minister brought it up, I have not heard any complaint.

If I do not like the lyrics, I do not buy the songs. I do not need to be offended by these lyrics.

I would only be worried if the people who like these songs and the lyrics start to create trouble for other people. So far, I am not aware that this was a problem.

Why create an issue out of thin air? Can we deal with real problems when they arise, rather than imagine the problems that may not materialize?

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=1298

Dispute over a paint job

My circumstances roughly is that the painter has collected full payment for the promised paint job for my house but he has only finished painting half of my house and is refusing to come back now and finish the job.
It's supposed to be a 2 days work but it's been 1 month plus now and we are unable to get him to come back and finish the job.

REPLY
Do you have a written contract with him for the job, and also a receipt for the payment?
You can take up this matter with the Small Claims Court.

https://www.statecourts.gov.sg/…/Pa…/GeneralInformation.aspx

https://fisca.sg/ArticleDisplay.aspx?ID=640

WOTC - Opening hours of private clinic

Dear Mr Tan,
I visited a private clinic at 850 pm and was told that it was closed. The glass door in the clinic and website show 930pm.

I feedback to MOH that last registration time will be more meaningful for patient especially for emergency cases.

However, the response was that is no regulation and depending on clinic itself. It appears that MOH is trying to hands-off. Quite disheartening. Not sure what's wrong.

MY REPLY
Sometime the doctor is sick or on holiday or takes time off because there is no business.
They hardly update their website.
It is better to give them a telephone call before making a visit.

WOTC - Thailand Parliament

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd:

Thailand Parliament has 250 appointed senators and 500 elected MPs.

Here are the responses: (35 Votes)

43 % - It provides for a good mix of senators with experience and popularly elected MPs.
37 % - This is not democratic.
11 % - It will be useful if the appointed senators are people with a record of past service to the country.
9 % - It creates stability and allows for a change of government in a more gradual manner.

See the pie chart at: 
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=1252

WOTC - Video logger Nas comes to Singapore

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd:

Video logger Nas is coming to Singapore because of lower GST.

Here are the responses: (53 Votes)

32 % - Maybe, he is funded by our govt agencies.
32 % - I don't trust him - he is spreading false propaganda.
30 % - He is crazy - we are the most expensive city in the world
6 % - Yes, our GST is quite low compared to the rates in most advanced countries.

See the pie chart at: 
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=1251

Vote on these issues

Vote on these issues now.
https://wisdomofthecrowd.sg/active_issue.aspx

Hyflux might have underquoted for the supply of water

At Hong Lim Park, one of the investor told me. Hyflux should take all of the blame. They quoted the price of water too low.

He said that a recent international contract quoted a price of US$0.80 per cu meter of desalinated water. That is $1.08. Why did Hyflux quote only $0.35?

I checked Google and found this article. It mentioned that Hyflux quoted $0.35, the next higher tender quoted $0.53 and other tenderers quoted $1.00 per cu meter.

I found this article when searching for the cost of desalinated water.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desalination

Quote:
Economics
Costs of desalinating sea water (infrastructure, energy, and maintenance) are generally higher than fresh water from rivers or groundwater, water recycling, and water conservation, but alternatives are not always available. Desalination costs in 2013 ranged from US$0.45 to $1.00/cubic metre. More than half of the cost comes directly from energy cost, and since energy prices are very volatile, actual costs can vary substantially.
Unquote:

So, the figure of US $0.80 mentioned is within the range.

It does appear that Hyflux might have under-quoted the price of water from the Tuaspring plant.

However, there was an article that mentioned that Hyflux was able to improve the design to reduce the energy requirement to produce the desalinated water.

Nevertheless, it is probably that some of the losses suffered from Hyflux probably come from this underpricing of the water.

Tuaspring capacity is 318,500 cu meter per day (70 million gallons). At the price of $0.35 per cu meter, the total value is $40 million a year.

If their price is underquoted, and the actual cost is 50% higher (i.e. $0.52 per cu meter), their loss would be $20 million a year.

Still, the larger portion of their loss came from the power plant.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=1283

21 People Reached

2 Engagements

Hyflux - a disaster that could have been avoided

Some people say that my views on Hyflux are "with the benefit of hindsight".

This kind of motherhood statement is not helpful.

In 2011, it was quite clear that Hyflux quote of $0.35 was way below the next lowest tender of $0.52 and other tenders of $1.00.

PUB could have discussed with Hyflux if they wish to withdraw the tender. I don't know if they did. But they should.

Even if Hyflux thought that they could make it work, it was quite clear in 2015 that the wholesale electricity price had collapsed to $63 (from the 2011 price of $215).

Something could be done at that time by PUB, EMA and Hyflux. It seemed that nothing was done.

I am not speaking from the benefit of hindsight. The scale of this disaster could have been avoided, if someone had taken charge.

We do have many highly paid ministers who could come forward.

We cannot be proud of an outcome where a home grown company is destroyed together with over 80% of the $900 million of savings from 34,000 retail investors.

I get angry when I see remarks by shallow minded people who thinks that they are really smart.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=1289

Price of Water

Revised:

Water cost RM 0.03 per 1,000 gallons. Malaysia wants to increase the price 16 times. If Singapore agrees, it will be RM 0.50.

We have to add the cost of processing the water. PUB said RM2.40 a few years ago. The total cost will be RM2.90 or $0.97 per 1,000 gallon or $0.21 per cu meter.

Hyflux tendered $0.35 to produce the desalinated water. This is probably under-priced. The next higher bidder tendered for $0.52. The international benchmark is $0.50 to $0.80.

Perhaps Hyflux was trying to match the cost of water from Johore. It was a disastrous mistake.

What do household pay for water in Singapore? The answer - $2.74 per cu meter. See here
https://www.pub.gov.sg/watersupply/waterprice

PUB charge a higher price for consumption beyond 40 cu meters a month. Most households do not reach this level.

There was no need for PUB to accept Hyflux tender of $0.35 per cu meter and in the process destroy Hyflux.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=1286

WOTC - Increasing cost of health care

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd:

How should PM Lee deal with the increasing cost of healthcare?

Here are the responses: (49 Votes)

73 % - Introduce control over prices of medical treatment, as adopted in some countries.
24 % - Replace the minister for health
2 % - Increase GST to fund the higher cost.
0 % - Blame the higher cost on an aging population.

See the pie chart at: 
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=1250

WOTC - Tender for Tuaspring

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd:

Was PUB at fault for issuing the tender for the Tuaspring project?

Here are the responses: (45 Votes)

31 % - PUB should reject the tender from Hyflux when they price was clearly underquoted, compared to the other tenderers.
31 % - It is bad for PUB to allow Hyflux to die by its "poison pill".
22 % - PUB is looking after the best interest of consumers in Singapore.
16 % - PUB should not expect the tenderer to quote a fixed price for water for 25 years, when it largely depend on the cost of energy.

See the pie chart at: 
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=1249

Do not destroy Hyflux

Some people say "No bailout" with reference to Hyflux Tuaspring.

They think they are smart. After all, the learn this principle from Economics 101.

But they do not realize the shallowness of their thinking.

This concept of "no bailout" is advanced by capitalist. If the state does not bail out failing companies, these companies can be taken over by people with money, i.e. the capitalist, at the lowest possible price.

They do not want the state, which has some money, to compete in the bidding process. So, they coin the term "no bail out" to exclude this competition.

I am not saying that the state should come in and bail out every failed company. No way.

But I am saying that the state should not allow the capitalist vultures, especially foreigners, to take assets at extremely depressed prices.

Whenever I see people mutter "no bailout", I look at their thinking to see if they really know what is going on, or if they are just shallow minded people.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=1285

PUB should have rejected Hyflux tender

PUB called for a tender for Tuaspring and received the following tenders:

Lowest - Hyflux - $0.35 per cu meter.
Next lowest - Keppel - $0.52
Others - $1.00

International benchmark - between $0.50 to $1.00.

If I were in charge in PUB, I will certainly NOT award the tender to Hyflux, as the price is unrealistically low. It is below international benchmark and is not achievable.

I will ask Hyflux to withdraw the tender. I may ask them to pay a penalty.

I will offer the tender to the second lowest tender, as the price is still below international benchmark and is quite achievable.

The purpose of PUB is not to kill off a company that made a mistake in the calculation that could lead to its destruction.

It should select an operator that is able to deliver the long term contract at a price that is within international benchmark.

It is a simple decision for me. But it seemed to be very difficult for the decision makers, and the highly paid ministers, in Singapore.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=1284

Hyflux probably under-quoted for supply of water

At Hong Lim Park, one of the investor told me. Hyflux should take all of the blame. They quoted the price of water too low.

He said that a recent international contract quoted a price of US$0.80 per cu meter of desalinated water. That is $1.08. Why did Hyflux quote only $0.35?

I checked Google and found this article. It mentioned that Hyflux quoted $0.35, the next higher tender quoted $0.53 and other tenderers quoted $1.00 per cu meter.

I found this article when searching for the cost of desalinated water.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desalination

Quote:
Economics
Costs of desalinating sea water (infrastructure, energy, and maintenance) are generally higher than fresh water from rivers or groundwater, water recycling, and water conservation, but alternatives are not always available. Desalination costs in 2013 ranged from US$0.45 to $1.00/cubic metre. More than half of the cost comes directly from energy cost, and since energy prices are very volatile, actual costs can vary substantially.
Unquote:

So, the figure of US $0.80 mentioned is within the range.

It does appear that Hyflux might have under-quoted the price of water from the Tuaspring plant.

However, there was an article that mentioned that Hyflux was able to improve the design to reduce the energy requirement to produce the desalinated water.

Nevertheless, it is probably that some of the losses suffered from Hyflux probably come from this underpricing of the water.

Tuaspring capacity is 318,500 cu meter per day (70 million gallons). At the price of $0.35 per cu meter, the total value is $40 million a year.

If their price is underquoted, and the actual cost is 50% higher (i.e. $0.52 per cu meter), their loss would be $20 million a year.

Still, the larger portion of their loss came from the power plant.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=1283

WOTC - Slow in dealing with disclosure lapses

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd:

Were MAS and SGX slow in dealing with the possible disclosure lapses in Hyflux?

Here are the responses: (35 Votes)

60 % - They should scrutinise the prospectus more carefully at the time of issue of the securities and ensure that the information is clear and adequate.
29 % - They should act when Hyflux applied for court protection in May 2018.
6 % - The investors should make study the prospectus carefully before investing in the securities.
6 % - Let the retail investors learn the lesson.

See the pie chart at: 
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=1248

WOTC - Take over Tuaspring for $0

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd:

Is it fair for PUB to take over Tuaspring from Hyflux at $0?

Here are the responses: (39 Votes)

44 % - PUB should offer a fair value, which is the cost of the desalination plant and power generation plant, less the projected loss.
26 % - PUB should take over the power generation plant together with the desalination plant and the outstanding debt as well for $0.
21 % - The $0 value is like confiscation of the asset.
10 % - It is fair because PUB is willing to forego the compensation for termination of the contract.

See the pie chart at: 
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=1247