Monday, April 27, 2020

Deaths due to covid-19

As at 26 April, a total of 207,000 people have died from the covid-19 virus around the world. Based on projection, this number is likely to be between 500,000 to 1 million by the end of 2020.

In my view, this is not the additional deaths caused by the covid virus. Most of these deaths would have occurred anyway, but many are being blamed on this virus.

Let me explain my view.

About 3 million people die from pneumonia each year, before the appearance of the covid virus.

Most of the people who died from the covid virus come from this group. If the covid virus did not appear, these people would still have died from pneumonia, caused by a virus, bacterial or fungi. The actual germ would probably not be identified. This year, the covid virus will get the blame for many of these deaths.

It is possible that the covid virus is directly responsible for some of the deaths.

But for many of the deaths outside of the hospital, the covid virus will get the blame if it is found in the body of the deceased - even though it might not be the main cause of the death.

We have to wait for the total figures of death from pneumonia and covid-19 to appear. If this total is higher than the 3 million that is counted in prior years, the virus would have caused the additional deaths.

I react to the pandemic with a sense of calmness. Even though I know that it is dangerous, I do not wish to exaggerate its impact.

I agree to the precautions that have to be taken to avoid the spread of the virus to the elderly and the people with underlying health conditions. But I do not react with panic about the spread of the virus to the young people.

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