Duncan Yum replied:
“If China wins the trade war” means “If China survives the trade war without being forced to make compromising terms akin to Plaza Accord”.
That pretty much summarised China’s bottom line in this mess.
Should that becomes the reality, China, one of the top 3 (by 2018 World Bank figure ) single consumer market as it it, will very likely be in the leadership role of a BRI-based economic bloc, and China’s resilience against US’ assault will give RMB certain “street cred” in making it the alternative to USD as reserve currency, though personally it’d more like people diversify their portfolios.
What’d be “do to the US” in such scenario, could be…
Shanghai or Beijing may become the newest global financial hub (they are not at this time, Hong Kong acts as a buffer zone but what happened in the last 12 months has certainly cast doubts in HK’s usefulness to China);
a Beijing-backed digital currency may become reality, becoming the first in the world;
We could become hearing less of Black Friday and Cyber Monday, but how “the Single’s Day smashed yet another record this year” and likely by then it’s getting global.
Americans can feel free to enjoy their isolationism, of course.
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