A sense of proportion

When I present a view after careful research, some people (I shall not call them idiots) will come to contradict and challenge me.

I find it difficult to engage in a discussion with them. They cannot tell the difference between 20 deaths (in Singapore) and 3,000 deaths (in Wuhan). They think both are the same in severity.

They cannot tell the difference between $60 billion and $60 million. They think both amounts are the same in magnitude.

They think that it is all right to spend $60 billion to reduce the number of infected cases. What nonsense!

They have no sense of proportion. They can't tell what is big, what is small, what is important, what is not.

They make their argument on lofty principles like "every life is invaluable".

What to do? I delete their nonsense. They can post their views in he insane ministers' Facebook pages. Their views will be welcome there.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2999

WOTC - Increase in infection rates

Wisdom of the Crowd: 76% of the respondents said that the increase in infection of covid-19 will not lead to many deaths in Singapore.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1974

WOTC - Extension of circuit breaker

Wisdom of the Crowd: 38% of the respondents agreed with the extension of the circuit breaker. 62% disagreed.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1975

Use policy decisions based on risk evaluation

My friend sent me this link to an article about covid-19. I read it. It described the harm that the virus can do to the body.

 I replied to my friend that I do not pay attention to scare stories. Even though the stories may be true, it applies to a small number of people. I will wait for more cases to be confirmed before I worry about this outcome. Meanwhile, I will treat it like an accident. 

 He replied - spoken like a true statistician. 

I like to draw the following observations: 

a) It is important to look at the actual data and to assess the cost of risk - i.e. the severity (amount of loss) and the frequency (or likelihood). If the cost is high, we should pay attention. 

b) We should not worry about "what could happen". There are too many things that could happen. The sky could fall down, right? 

c) Policy decisions should be made by proper risk evaluation, i.e. the cost of risk. It should not be made by "what could happen".

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2995

PM Johnson faces a dilemma

PM Johnson of the UK faces a dilemma. The death rate in the UK for covid-19 is quite high, at 482 per million, just slightly below Italy and Spain. 

The lockdown has been damaging to the UK economy. He cannot continue the lockdown for much longer as the economic damage will be very serious. 

He starts a public communication campaign to encourage the UK residents to return to work, but to continue safe measures. The people are not convinced about the new message. They are scared of of covid. They do not want to be exposed to the risk of infection. 

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2994

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Why were there so few deaths among the infected foreign workers?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

WOTC - Mistake made by the ministerial task force

Wisdom of the Crowd: 48% of the respondents said that the ministerial task force made many mistakes along the way in the handling of the crisis. 40% said they overlook the overcrowding in the worker dormitories.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1973

WOTC - Is the corona virus already widespread in the community?

Wisdom of the Crowd: 76% of the respondents said that the corona virus was already quite widespread in the community but did not cause much harm. 24% said that it the virus was well contained and did not spread widely in the community.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1972

A risk management issue

I wish to pose a risk management issue for you to consider.

A low income family has a small amount of savings. They child is seriously ill. The medical expense will wipe out the entire savings. The chance of survival is low.

Should the family use the savings in an attempt to save their child? The parents want to do the best they can for the child.

http://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2993

AGM Voting Software

I developed this platform for carrying out the voting in an AGM conducted over teleconferencing.

Several managing agents representing a few hundred condos in Singapore are interested in using this platform during the circuit breaker period.

You can view the videos and explanation of this platform here http://tklcloud.com/Meeting/home.aspx It can also be used for AGMs for associations, socieities and listed companies.

If you know of anybody who is interested in this platform, please refer them to kinlian@gmail.com.

Deaths per million

A good indicator of the severity of the covid-19 virus is the death per million of population. Here are the figures, ranked by country that are most severely hit. Most of these countries are in Europe and North America, which has just passed through winter. The countries in South East Asia have low rates as they are in the warm climate. Australia also just passed through summer and have low rates as well.

Some of the countries with cold climates have low death rates due to better social discipline. They include South Korea, Japan and China.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2989

Risk management concept

Some people argued that human life is valuable and that every effort should be made to save every human life and that money should not be an issue.

This is an irrational approach. 

The flaws in this argument are:https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2985

Profitable companies return subsidies under Job Support schemes

Some profitable companies, such as banks and pharmaceutical companies, have returned the subsidies given by the government under the Job Support schemes.  Their action is laudable. However, some other profitable companies may pocket the subsidies.  This shows the weakness of the approach adopted by the finance minister to help business meet the cost of the circuit breaker measures. What is a better approach? https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2984

Learn the fundamentals of risk management

Many people think that the best option is to have a total lockdown of the economy to stop the spread of the corona virus. This is often the wrong approach. It is too costly.

In risk management, we have to consider several approaches and weigh the cost of each option. This takes into account the severity and the frequency.

This risk management concept is explained in this course. It is available FREE now.

The risk management concept can also apply to personal risk management, e.g. should you buy insurance, what kind, and is it worth it?

https://tklcloud.com/Event/event_det.aspx?ID=105

Immunity from the corona virus

Many people are worried that immunity from the corona virus will not last long. They will be reinfected by a mutation of the virus. 

That is true. 

Read this post to get a more complete understanding on this topic.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2983

WOTC - Test the foreign workers

Wisdom of the Crowd: 71% of the respondents said that the government should test all the foreign workers and allow the uninfected ones to return to work, instead of locking down the entire country.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1970

WOTC: Extend the circuit breaker

Wisdom of the Crowd: 32% of the respondents support the decision of the government to extend the circuit breaker. The other 68% prefer other approaches to deal with the corona virus.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1971

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Will the second wave of the virus be serious?
2. With the benefit of hindsight, what is the best approach to stop the virus?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

Safe Entry app

The Safe Entry age is well designed. It is easy to use.  It records the particulars of a visitor who passes through a checkpoint of a mall or a facility. The person uses his mobile phone to register a safe entry. 

Its drawback is that it does not cater for a visitor who is not familiar with the use of a mobile app or does not have a mobile phone on the visit. 

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2982

Global trends on covid cases and deaths

These graphs of covid cases and deaths globally continue to show a healthy trend. The cases have stabilized. The deaths have dropped.

They support the views expressed by some epidemiologists (disease experts) that the virus have passed its peaks. Usually, they spread and caused deaths and illness for a few months.

Some other experts said that the drop is due to lockdown measures.

I believe the first group that it is the natural cause of a virus pandemic.

I also observed that the daily figures for a weekend tends to be lower. Perhaps some countries do not report fully during the weekends and push their figures to Monday.