Wednesday, May 30, 2018

Snapshot and projected claim rate

n this article, the writer pointed out that 33% of people above age 65 are disabled in Canada and 35% are disabled in America.

The ministry of health Singapore said that the projected claim rate in Singapore is 50%…/moh-says-50-of-singapor…/

Is the Singapore figure over projected?

I can explain the difference between these three figures. The percentage for Canada and America is based the population now, where the proportion of the very old is small. I will refer to this as the snapshot.

The figure for Singapore is calculated by looking at the current population and projecting them over the future years until all of them have passed away. I refer to this figure as the projected figure.

This method will show a higher percentage for the projected figure compared to the snapshot that is used in Canada and USA.

I have assumed that the definition of disability is the same. In Singapore, the definition is inability to perform at least three activities of daily living. 

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Should also consider the length of time in disabled state till death.

Otherwise i can say that 98% of population will become disabled & bedridden, coz majority will be in this state for months, weeks or days before death.

Only a tiny % will die suddenly e.g. massive stroke, heart attack or accident.

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