Wednesday, April 22, 2020

Rationale of contact tracing


Contact tracing is effective when the number of infected persons is low, say less than say 500. It is possible to trace all the people who have been in contact with the infected person and ask them to go for testing or isolation.

It is difficult to carry out contact tracing when there is a large number of infected people in the community. Any new case could be infected by any of the previously infected person. It will be difficult to trace the source of contact. It might even give misleading results - for example X is thought to be infected by Y when he was actually infected by Z.

During the past few weeks, we read about several tens of new cases which could not be traced.  The cumulative total of untraced cases is not reported, but is estimated to number a few hundreds.

I think that it is time to abandon the contact tracing efforts, as it takes a lot of resources and do not provide any useful outcome. 


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2 comments:

Anonymous said...

It is rough for the people, but it is even tougher for the government. They are used to income, but now it's outgoing. To them, it is not logical when it comes to their formula of humanity?

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