NTUC website for SIRS application is down

My friend tried to login to this website, operated by NTUC, to submit an application for the Self Employed Income Relief scheme. He was not able to login.

He has been trying several times for a few days. He was not able to login.

He has wasted a lot of time. This is probably the experience of several tens of thousand of applicants.

Maybe several hundred thousand applicants are trying to login .

I can make a guess what has happened. The website was designed to carry out the entire process flow. This is a complicated process, as it probably requires to check the entered data against many government websites. Any of these links could be a cause of failure.

The complicated system can probably handle a limited number of transactions every minute. When the volume exceeds this capacity, it is likely to crash the system.

This is probably what had happened.

If I were to design the system, I would create a light weight website that allows the applicant to enter just the essential details - name, email, telephone, occupation.

It will not attempt to ask for documents to be uploaded or to verify the information.

My lightweight website is considered as stage 1.

I will then send an email to the applicants with a link to go to the full website to go through the entire process. I will time the sending out of the email so that the volume is controlled to a level that the system can cope. This will not crash the system.

Stage 1 can be considered to be a queuing system. It will manage stage 2 to spread out the actual processing of the applications.

I hope that a person in charge can work on this this suggestion soon.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2933

WOTC - Vote in the general election

Wisdom of the Crowd: 90% of the respondents said that they will vote non-PAP at the general election.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1957

WOTC - Performance of ministers in Task Force

Wisdom of the Crowd: 88% of the respondents have a negative opinion about the performance of the ministers in the task force.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1956

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Is the rally in the global stock market justified?
2. Do the infected foreign workers pose a serious danger to the general community?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

Do not be caught looking like an idiot

Think before you make your comment or ask stupid questions.
Do not be caught looking like an idiot. OK?

Read this post
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2928

Testing of 300,000 foreign workers

I have seen comments by many people - why can't we test all the foreign workers in the dormitory at one go? Why are we testing them in small batches every day?

The answer is simple.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2928

Herd immunity among the foreign workers?

We may already have achieved herd immunity among the foreign workers. What does this mean?

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2927

Sale of regulatory credit by Tesla

The average forecast of Wall Street analysts was a loss of $0.36 per spare for Tesla for 1Q 2020. The actual results showed a profit of $1.24 per share.

Why were the analysts wrong? One contributing factor was the income of $354 million from the sale of regulatory credit, which is 64% higher than 1Q of 2019.

What is this regulatory credit? It is given to a car manufacturer based on the qualifying vehicles that it sold. This is to encourage manufacturers to move to electric vehicles.

If the car manufacturer did not achieve its quota, it has to pay a penalty on the shortfall. Alternatively, it can buy the credit from another manufacturer like Tesla.

As Tesla makes only electric vehicles, it has a lot of regulatory credit to sell to other manufacturers.

The question is - why does Tesla sells more credit during 1Q 2020 than normal? The answer is simple - Tesla lowers the price of the regulatory credit to get the revenue booked in the quarter, so that it can show a profit.

It is a simple business strategy. All businesses lower the price to increase the sales, right?

In spite of the challenges for 2Q 2020, I expect that Tesla will continue to make a profit. They will then qualify to be included in the S&P 500.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2926

Why are some foreign workers not infected?

I have revised this article about the infection of the foreign workers living in dormitories. Instead of creating a panic, I wish to suggest that the findings actually suggest some good news.

http://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2920

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Was it wise to extend the circuit breaker?

2. Will the second wave of covid-19 be more serious?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

Win a book prize

A book prize will be given out to all participants who submitted at least 10 votes for the Wisdom of the Crowd website for this month. It will close tomorrow.

To win this prize, you can vote now.
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/u_issue.aspx

WOTC - Extension of circuit breaker

Wisdom of the Crowd: 67% of the respondents support the extension of the circuit breaker by another month. 33% disagree.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1955

WOTC - TraceTogether app

Wisdom of the Crowd: 19% of the respondents have tried the TraceTogether app and like it. 17% tried it and gave it up. The others are not aware about it.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1954

Will there be a second wave of the covid-19

Many countries have implemented strict lockdown measures and have seen a reduction in new cases.

They are worried about the risk of a second wave of infections after they relaxed the lockdown or when the weather becomes cold again after another six months.

My reasoning is that the second wave will be less severe. Here are my reasons:

a) After the current wave, a high proportion of the population would have been exposed to the virus and have developed some form of immunity. During the next wave, the virus will cause less harm.

b) It is likely that the more vulnerable segment of the population, i.e. the elderly and those with underlying conditions, would have died during the first wave. Those who survive would probably be stronger.

This is my reasoning based on logic, common sense and my reading of many articles on the virus. I hope that I am right.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2921

Why is only 25% of foreign workers is tested positive?

During the past two weeks, about 3,000 tests are carried out each day with the foreign workers living in dormitories. About 750 are found to be infected. This represents an infection rate of 25%.

Many people panicked and worried about the 750 new cases (or thereabouts) that are identified each day.

I like to ask the question - what happened to the other 75%? Surely, if the virus is so contagious, the foreign workers are living so densely together, and a large number are already infected, we should expect 100% to be infected?

I have positive news to share with you.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2920

Circuit breaker caused economic downturn

Bad news for Japan and Singapore. Economic problems ahead

Japan, Singapore could be the worst-hit Asian economies in the coronavirus pandemic, says Moody's Analytics - https://www.cnbc.com/…/japan-singapore-worst-hit-asian-econ…

TKL comment. Singapore would not be badly hit if it had just continued its containment measures, i.e. safe distancing and wear face mask, without calling the circuit breaker for four weeks. It is insane now to extend the circuit breaker for another four weeks.

The impact of the virus is quite mild. Although there was a large increase of over 10,000 new cases over the past three weeks, the death rate remained at 2 per million (compared to 200 to 500 in America and some countries in Europe) and the ICU cases is steady at less than 30 (actually 22 today).

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2916

Contact tracing in Germany

We can adopt this approach to carry out contact tracing more efficiently and ensure that there is proper follow up and avoid duplication of work and confusion.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2915

Mobile app from DBS

When DBS introduced its mobile app for personal banking and corporate banking, I tried them and gave up.

I found the setup process to be too difficult and troublesome. the instructions were confusing.

A few months later, I tried the mobile apps again. This time I have to get the help from the support staff. I managed to overcome the difficult set up process.

I have now got used to these apps. I find it to be quite convenient and useful.

I still find the apps to be quite complicated. They have too many functions that I do not need and add to the confusion. But I managed to identify the functions that I need and learn how to use them.

I will give DBS a good rating for their apps. But I wish that they had kept them simpler and most certainly have a simpler set up process.

I hope that they will learn, but apparently, they do not listen.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2914

Deaths due to covid-19

As at 26 April, a total of 207,000 people have died from the covid-19 virus around the world. Based on projection, this number is likely to be between 500,000 to 1 million by the end of 2020.

In my view, this is not the additional deaths caused by the covid virus. Most of these deaths would have occurred anyway, but many are being blamed on this virus.

Let me explain my view.

About 3 million people die from pneumonia each year, before the appearance of the covid virus.

Most of the people who died from the covid virus come from this group. If the covid virus did not appear, these people would still have died from pneumonia, caused by a virus, bacterial or fungi. The actual germ would probably not be identified. This year, the covid virus will get the blame for many of these deaths.

It is possible that the covid virus is directly responsible for some of the deaths.

But for many of the deaths outside of the hospital, the covid virus will get the blame if it is found in the body of the deceased - even though it might not be the main cause of the death.

We have to wait for the total figures of death from pneumonia and covid-19 to appear. If this total is higher than the 3 million that is counted in prior years, the virus would have caused the additional deaths.

I react to the pandemic with a sense of calmness. Even though I know that it is dangerous, I do not wish to exaggerate its impact.

I agree to the precautions that have to be taken to avoid the spread of the virus to the elderly and the people with underlying health conditions. But I do not react with panic about the spread of the virus to the young people.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2912

Most new cases are mild

Today, 26 April, is day 19 of the circuit breaker.

The ministers panicked and called the circuit breaker when they saw the number of new cases jumped up. Over the past two weeks, the cases jumped by several hundreds and some days over one thousand a day.

The total cases must have jumped by by almost 10,000 during this period.

I monitored the number of patients in intensive care unit (ICU) due to covid virus. It remained stable at the current level, which is less than 30,.

In spite of the large number of new cases that have been reported, we did not see any large increase in ICU cases. Most of the new cases are mild.

The number of deaths increase by 1 or 2 during this period, to reach a total of 12.

If the virus is serious, I would expect the ICU cases to jump up by a large number during the past 2 weeks. It did not happen.

As of today, the message from cov.sg showed the following:

total cases: 12,693
hospitalised: 1,214 (24 in ICU)
in community facilities: 10,465
fatalities - 12
total discharged: 1,002

Most of the new cases are being monitored at the community facilities. Our hospitals are not overwhelmed.

There is no need for the public to be alarmed about the large numbers of new cases that are reported each day. Even the large number of unlinked cases are not important - because they do not lead to the increase of the critically ill (i.e. ICU cases).

It seemed the the covid virus is rather mild in Singapore, unlike the case in other countries with cold climates.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2908