Reduce reliance on foreign workers

The covid-19 crisis has shown the flaws in Singapore's reliance on foreign workers. 

Due to the unsanitary and overcrowded conditions in the foreign worker dormitories, the covid virus has inflected most, if not all, the foreign workers. 

 It has caused the government to implement a circuit breaker (it is actually a lockdown) for two months. The cost to the economy is a horrendous $60 billion (my estimate), which could have been used to suspend GST totally for six years. 

 Looking ahead, what can Singapore do to reduce the reliance on foreign workers?

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=3017

Foreign workers in community facilities

There are videos showing the foreign workers in the community facilities who are not observing social distancing. They congregate and socialize.

Some people commented that they are having a good time - no need to work, get three meals a day and get paid in full.

But other people said that they depend more on overtime pay, so the confinement is hard on their finances. 

It becomes a lose-lose situation.

I hope that this is a good lesson for the country, and for the government. The reliance on foreign workers is bad, and has hit us badly.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=3016

Quora: If Trump were to cancel debt to China, would other countries think twice about buying US bonds in the future?

Buddha Buck, studied at University at Buffalo answered

Let’s rephrase that: If Trump were to default on 4% of the US debt, would every investor in the world think twice about buying US bonds in the future?

Yes, yes they would. And for good reason. It would mean that the trustworthiness of the US government to pay back the debt — like it has been doing continuously since 1789 — is gone. The US would be a dead-beat nation, unable to raise money via debt it needs to finance its operations.

The US economy would collapse. Of the $22T GDP, a good $5T of that comes directly from government spending. Except the government can’t spend anything because they don’t have the money.

Taxes would go up sharply, and government spending would fall. Neither of which is particularly good for the economy.

Investors would flee US Bonds, driving the price of those bonds down and the yields up, reflecting the suddenly increased risk of owning the bonds. Prices of other bonds and of stocks, etc, would go up as literally tens of trillions of dollars flood the market from former US Bond-holders who now want something else, anything else, than US Bonds.

The main “country” that owns US bonds is the US. Not the US Government (although it owns quite a lot of US bonds), but the US public. Retirement funds, banks, wealthy individuals, companies, hedge funds, etc. The same is true for other “countries” that own US bonds — it isn’t just the governments, it’s other institutions as well. The reason it gets lumped all together is that the US Treasury reports only on the aggregate nationality of the bondholders. When you hear $1.268T of the US debt in February was owned by Japan, compared to $1.092T owned by China, that means that $1.268T of US debt was owned by entities based in Japan, not the Japanese government or the Japanese central bank.

It would also likely lead to Trump’s impeachment and removal from office. There is a very strong argument to be made that defaulting on the debt is unconstitutional. Certainly the completely foreseeable outcome of the debt is bad enough that even the Senate Republicans can’t cover for it.

Platform to process the contact tracing records

The govt require workplaces and business outlets to implement contract tracing. This must involve tens of million dollars. Most of the cost is incurred by businesses and are passed to their customers through higher prices.

How well is the contact tracing records being used? How often have the govt identified people who have been in contact with the infected people from their database?

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=3011

Expansion of isolation facilities

There is a positive aspect in the actions taken by the ministerial task force during the covid-19 crisis.

They were able to expand the isolation facilities quickly when the need arose.

http://www.tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=3010

Discharge of patients staying in isolated facilities

1,164 patients were discharged from hospital and isolation facilities on 14 May 2020. This was described as a "high".

This is how I see the significance of this figure. http://www.tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=3009

Quora: Why is the White House in “complete chaos” over the coronavirus?

Colin Riegels, admitted as a lawyer in five countries replied

A lot of this has been building for some time. Two of the more unusual features of the Trump administration were:

1. usually when a new administration comes in there is a ‘handover period’ when the new team bed in with the old team to get briefed on the role and get a handle on the big issues. The Trump administration didn’t do this - they just fired everyone from Obama’s staff and then tried to work it out as best they could.
2. A huge number of Federal posts still remain unfilled even after firing all the previous Obama staffers. This includes, amongst other things, the Federal task force (set up by the much hated Obama ) for dealing with infectious disease pandemics.

Trump’s staffing struggle: After 3 years, unfilled jobs across the administration

Did Trump Administration Fire the US Pandemic Response Team?

For bonus points: the US used to embed a member of staff permanently with China’s CDDC (equivalent of the US CDC) so that the US could be updated on any relevant developments in China. The Trump administration cancelled that post in 2017.

So, at the time when it really, really needs expertise and experience around it, the Trump White House finds itself very much alone. That has had fairly predictable consequences at the worst possible time.

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Who should Joe Biden select as his vice president candidate?

2. How do you see the low spread of infection in the community?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

Vote in Wisdom of the Crowd

Submit your vote on these issues in The Wisdom of the Crowd. You will win a prize at the end of the month.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/active_issue.aspx

WOTC - Rally in the stock market

Wisdom of the Crowd: 80% of the respondents expect the current stock market rally to fizzle out. 20% are optimistic.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1977

WOTC - Second wave of infection

Wisdom of the Crowd: 72% of the respondents said that the second wave of the infection will be less serious than the first wave. 28% expect it to be more serious.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1976

High death rates in UK, USA

The death rates in UK and USA increased sharply in recent months.  They have nearly caught up with Italy and Spain. The death per million population are Spain 584 Italy 514 UK 489 USA 259 What is the reason for the  sharp increase in UK and USA? https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=3001

Unhappy with M of Manpower

My friend managed to find a job recently. She is disappointed with the policy of the M of Manpower.

Quote:
It has been difficult for me in the last 10 years. I was always working on contract basis even with same or 15% to 20% lower of my salary.

Employer still prefers to employ foreigners. They do not need to contribute CPF or pay levy (Employment Pass Holder) and with poor/lower staff benefits. Foreigners always like to claim everything they also can do.

They can come early and work very late every day. This has affected the jobs available for Singaporeans.

I saw the foreigners bring their own culture and provide assistance to the employer to get more of their friends being employed. Some even exploit our local employees.

The workplace becomes a small community of their own. It is sad to see it is happening in Singapore.

I was jobless for almost more than 1.5 years. I think likely due to above 55 years old and today employer still favoured foreign talents rather than employing Singaporeans even for the same pay.

I have many years of experience in several functions and vast knowledge and experience working with different multinational companies. Still I could not find an employer willing to give me the opportunity.

Perhaps this time I am lucky to find an employer willing to employ me for my experience that I can contribute and age is not a factor. I bring to them my knowledge of enterprise resource planning.

A sense of proportion

When I present a view after careful research, some people (I shall not call them idiots) will come to contradict and challenge me.

I find it difficult to engage in a discussion with them. They cannot tell the difference between 20 deaths (in Singapore) and 3,000 deaths (in Wuhan). They think both are the same in severity.

They cannot tell the difference between $60 billion and $60 million. They think both amounts are the same in magnitude.

They think that it is all right to spend $60 billion to reduce the number of infected cases. What nonsense!

They have no sense of proportion. They can't tell what is big, what is small, what is important, what is not.

They make their argument on lofty principles like "every life is invaluable".

What to do? I delete their nonsense. They can post their views in he insane ministers' Facebook pages. Their views will be welcome there.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2999

WOTC - Increase in infection rates

Wisdom of the Crowd: 76% of the respondents said that the increase in infection of covid-19 will not lead to many deaths in Singapore.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1974

WOTC - Extension of circuit breaker

Wisdom of the Crowd: 38% of the respondents agreed with the extension of the circuit breaker. 62% disagreed.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1975

Use policy decisions based on risk evaluation

My friend sent me this link to an article about covid-19. I read it. It described the harm that the virus can do to the body.

 I replied to my friend that I do not pay attention to scare stories. Even though the stories may be true, it applies to a small number of people. I will wait for more cases to be confirmed before I worry about this outcome. Meanwhile, I will treat it like an accident. 

 He replied - spoken like a true statistician. 

I like to draw the following observations: 

a) It is important to look at the actual data and to assess the cost of risk - i.e. the severity (amount of loss) and the frequency (or likelihood). If the cost is high, we should pay attention. 

b) We should not worry about "what could happen". There are too many things that could happen. The sky could fall down, right? 

c) Policy decisions should be made by proper risk evaluation, i.e. the cost of risk. It should not be made by "what could happen".

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2995

PM Johnson faces a dilemma

PM Johnson of the UK faces a dilemma. The death rate in the UK for covid-19 is quite high, at 482 per million, just slightly below Italy and Spain. 

The lockdown has been damaging to the UK economy. He cannot continue the lockdown for much longer as the economic damage will be very serious. 

He starts a public communication campaign to encourage the UK residents to return to work, but to continue safe measures. The people are not convinced about the new message. They are scared of of covid. They do not want to be exposed to the risk of infection. 

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2994

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Why were there so few deaths among the infected foreign workers?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

WOTC - Mistake made by the ministerial task force

Wisdom of the Crowd: 48% of the respondents said that the ministerial task force made many mistakes along the way in the handling of the crisis. 40% said they overlook the overcrowding in the worker dormitories.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1973