Tan Kin Lian's Blog: Missing the boat

Monday, March 01, 2010

Missing the boat

Some people are worried that they have missed the boat and that property prices will continue to go higher.

They should not worry. Inflated prices will come down. Look at what has happened in Japan, USA and Europe. They went through their property bubbles and prices have dropped. It will remain low for one or two decades.

Singapore is not exempt from these forces. If prices are inflated and at unsustainable level, they will surely fall. In the meantime, be calm. Rent a flat or house. Wait for the prices to fall.

Tan Kin Lian

35 comments:

Anonymous said...: I beg to differ.
Prices of hdb flats are unlikely to decline very much because the supply is never seems enough.; March 01, 2010 7:49 AM
SD said...: Yeah, market is always there. There is no need to chase the market. You often have to pay quite an expensive price in chasing the market.; March 01, 2010 8:53 AM
Anonymous said...: I beg to differ too.

Price of resale HDB flats may decline, but not very much. Price of new HDB flats will never decline. We know who is ultimately controlling the price and the demand and supply. It is not in the interest of the gahmen to let the price of assets fall.; March 01, 2010 9:23 AM
Anonymous said...: I agree with Anon 7:49am. The prices is not likely to deflate as the DEMAND is more than the supply. With the increase in population and limited (controlled) supplied, the chances of a deflation is highly unlikely. There is always RICH people around in Singapore to substain the market, if not we can import the RICH from nearby countries to keep the price up. Just read over the weekend that some PR bought a 5-rm flat in Jurong West for over 45OK. If Singaporean cannot afford it, nevermind and too bad.; March 01, 2010 9:32 AM
michael said...: As far as the prices of HDB flats are concerned, the government has controlled the supply and demand factors through a various of its polices to a very large extent.; March 01, 2010 9:44 AM
Anonymous said...: In Singapore, Government policy has great impact on property prices. Look at HDB prices for the last 2 years when the world (including Singapore) were facing severe ecomomy downturn, HDB prices still hitting record after record. This is due to speed of building programmes (which Government has full control) and immigration policy(which only Government has the control).

HDB prices went up and helped to boost up the private property prices.

Another factor on property prices is the people's sentiment. During2003 SARS period, property prices (especially private property) were rock bottom, but many people didn't dare to buy as they thought the prices would go down further. Many people had missed the boat then.

So, cheap or expensive sometimes is secondary. When people think that the prices will go up they will buy (and don't care much about the high prices). And when people think that the prices will do down, they will wait for the price to go down further (and don't care whether it is cheap).

For now, to wait or not to wait? Only future will tell.

CCL; March 01, 2010 9:57 AM
C H Yak said...: I tend to disagree with Anon 7.49am.

There are other factors determining whether prices of HDB flats are sustainable or not...not purely "supply". The HDB perhaps would like this to be the only factor...so that they could push out BTO flats at high "premium" prices.

(i) Even with loose immigration policy, can our population increase forever?

This leads us to question the meaning of "Sustainability"???

(ii) To sustain the high price of HDB flats, there must be enough jobs to sustain the salary / wages of the population - true bred Singaporeans & immigrants alike(including FTs).

True FTs may not even join the HDB market for re-sale flats. If they can afford it, they will rather speculate (or is it still investing?) in the private housing market.

(iii) What once used to sustain the prices of HDB & private housing here was the high CPF rates and wages; particularly the middle income. Can CPF or wages be restorted, even with enough high paying jobs being created?

With CPF ceiling for the middle income capped and the middle income wages squeezed in the last few years, and the cost of living going up forever, how to sustain the high prices of HDB flats.

I note even in the private residential market, developers are testing the market, pricing their new launches at least one "click" above their old pricing strategy. What used to be priced at $700 p.s.f is now $900 p.s.f. Will they be able to sustain this pricing in the private market, where supply is even more acute (due to location factor). They might be likely to succeed...

But can there be sufficient upgraders from the HDB market. If so, HDB resale market has to move in tandem if people are mere speculators. If not people must be so confident like Anon. 7.49...

Even if say there is no speculation, can this gap of $200 p.s.f be plucked by upgraders? If not, it is hard to sustain...we already find re-sale flats un-affordable...how to find buyers to pluck this $200 p.s.f gap? It is still demand ... not supply which determines prices.

The majority of us would want to supply at current high prices or even up the HDB re-sale market by another click of near to $200 p.s.f ... but who will come to purchase at such high prices?

Will there be more "daft" people who are willing to buy at such high prices?

The MM thinks that we would be "daft" to vote Mr MBT out...because he "forecasts" and expects us to expect Mr MBT to find such "daft" people to enter the market be it the HDB or the private residential market...that is if we believe in him.

But we need "daft" employers who would need to pay such high wages to sustain jobs / high wages here and these residential markets (HDB & markets) in turn would be sustained...if not 10 years; 20~30 years for as long as our bankers would want to lend you the money and "enslave" you. In fact, I wonder in the post MB crisis era, will they remain so aggressive in their lending policy...just look at how PMETs are losing jobs.

Perhaps we may have "daft" people who are winning to gamble at our 2 casinos. but lucky to win enough to sustain our property markets?

Can we allow those who are not "daft" but able to "wash" their "dirty" money / currency here through our casinos, then invest in our property markets ... if not the private then in HDB flats???

I think it would be really "daft" to join the fray in speculating in the HDB resale flats, and be enslaved ... and the HDB housing policy on the other hand should not support this speculation just to hold up property prices and attempt to sustain the HDB market.; March 01, 2010 10:19 AM
Anonymous said...: If anybody buys a highly price hdb flat, his future will be rooted to S'pore almost forever; continue pay tax since he lives and works here, continue to pay loans and interest for his flat etc, continue to remain rooted and contribute to our population etc.

Isn't this a win-win situation for both the government and the citizens?; March 01, 2010 11:54 AM
Anonymous said...: It is unlikely that property prices will come down much, given that the govt has ample tools at its diposal to prevent prices from falling. The crunch is from the bottom, where demand come from foreigners who are wise enough to realise that buying beats renting, ie. they can at the least save on rent by buying to live during their working years in Spore. This, coupled with the BTO scheme (HDB builds only when order is secured) guarantees that supply will either be short of, or at best match demand. There will never be a supply exceed demand situation anymore in the lower-end residential mkt, which forms the based of the entire property mkt pyramid.; March 01, 2010 12:20 PM
Anonymous said...: The biggest land owner is SLA.
It is controlled by the Gov.

Singapore has 700sqkm of land, and SLA owns 99% of it. It can even own 100% if it wants... just use the Land Acquisition Act.

Because of this, the prices of properties IS controllable. Supply and demand is staged, and carefully managed.

This is one pillar of the economy.
The Gov and future parties will soon understand that it is key and will not dismantle it.

For the time being, prices will remain buoyant because they have decided it to be so.; March 01, 2010 12:40 PM
Anonymous said...: As I see it,

In the coming years, HDD Housing Prices will be affected by the following factors:

1. The number of people on this island. If more foreign workers are laid off by the companies because of the foreign worker levies, this will reduce the upward pressure of HDB Housing prices.

2. Job Opportunities created by Foreign Companies. China growth may slow down in the future thereby affecting S'pore's growth prospects. With the US still in recovery mode, S'pore may not be able to grow much. Without economic growth, foreign companies will not come in to S'pore.

3. There may be oversupply of private homes in the future with every developer trying to sell their homes and news of offices and hotels being converted into private homes. Private Home prices may fall thereby impacting HDB Home Prices.

4. HDB Home Leases reaching 70 years or less coming up fast. With banks not willing to lend to buyers buying such homes, HDB Home Prices may fall steeply.

5. Fears of a runaway inflation. With such low interest rates, there is a real fear that inflation will gather pace. With inflation HDB housing prices will be beyond the reach of ordinary people. If the government prices it at near market value for new flats, many Singaporeans will be unable to afford it still. If Housing is too expensive, either wages will have to go up or less people will stay in Singapore and may move to Johor or Batam and commute from there.; March 01, 2010 1:29 PM
Anonymous said...: Mark my words...
mkt will drop by abt 20-40% from 2011 till 2014.
Pls don't reply too this. I will not come back to read nor reply.

-No Regrets; March 01, 2010 1:47 PM
Anonymous said...: So many people begging to differ. Me too.

HDB prices will never come down very much, because supply is tightly controlled by the Government. In any monopoly, the idea is to make as much money as possible after taking out the competition. We all know the PAP Government too well.

Secondly, being largely financed by CPF savings, any drastic fall in HDB prices means CPF savings down the drain for most people, which I think the Government is not too keen to allow if they can help it. It makes a mockery of asset enhancements over the years, if after all the make-over, people find their flats fetching lower prices.

Thirdly, HDB will have to lower the prices of new flats if overall prices in the resale market falls drastically, which I think the Government, as you know, is also reluctant to allow. Again, you more or less should know how the PAP Government thinks, after four decades of lording over us. The bottom line is the most important consideration for them in anything.

In other countries like Japan, no one party has absolute control over so much land, as well as almost absolute control over public housing.; March 01, 2010 2:59 PM
Anonymous said...: On the otherhand, I do pray that prices for condo will drop significantly, so that I can buy one to rent and collect rental.; March 01, 2010 5:10 PM
Anonymous said...: PAP will be very happy to read most comments here. Seems the greater fool theory is alive and well.

For myself and wife, we took the scaredy-cat route. Back in 1996, SG's property prices were shooting thru the sky, even worse than now. We got married that year and decided to live with my parents till prices become more reasonable.

Just after the main asian financial crisis in 1999, after determining that our jobs still ok, we finally decided to buy a resale HDB flat.

Even though we were prudent, we were still "under water" during 2nd-half of 2001 until end of 2002, due to post-911 recession. Negative equity for 1.5 years.

My friends and peers who bought in 1996 were very much worse off.
HDB prices did not reach 1996 level UNTIL 2008!!
Negative equity for 12 long years.

It's still ok IF you are certain that your salaries will not be threatened by major recessions etc. Otherwise, be very very careful!; March 01, 2010 5:50 PM
Anonymous said...: Before the present BTO system it was Build-to-sell (BTS) system. HDB overbuilt in the 90s and the HDB flat prices (new and resale) were stagnant or dropped. But under the present BTO system, there is no chance of over supply. Hence, it is unlikely that HDB flat prices be underwater for long period in the future.

Just hope that the Government always make sure that new HDB flats are affordable. They have full control over the pricing of new HDB flats. For the resale flats, although the Government can influence the prices, it does not have full control over the prices.

CCL; March 01, 2010 9:44 PM
symmetrix said...: I hope Mr TKL's prediction is right but I doubt it will happen soon.

We cannot compare ourselves to Japan, Europe nor USA. Their political, social and economic system is so diferent from ours. They have vast land resources and powerful lobby groups to keep the govt in chk in case the latter gets out of line. Sg has none of these factors, being an oligarchy for more than 40 yrs. Numerous rating agencies keep rating sg highly, so more FTs will come here to gobble up our land.

The govt will do whatever it takes to protect the interests of hundreds of thousands of existing HDB owners. It will not allow the price to fall by much.

To add insult to injury, there are now more and more Malaysians buying property in sg. And they are paying top dollar for some properties. Who would have imagined such a situation years ago? All along we were going to Malaysia to buy houses. Just see how the tides have changed against us.

So with all these things happenning, I feel that property prices wlll only go one way - UP. Somebody, pls prove me wrong.; March 01, 2010 11:33 PM
Qiqi said...: Everyone of us has a choice. No one can predicts the market. It may be a better move to know what is our priority in life and our limits. A house is just a roof over the head. If one can own an expensive house, well and good. If one feels that housing price is just simply inflated, don't buy it. It can be a horrible feeling when the reality sets in (paying for the high monthly instalment, unable to quit a high-paying job when unhappy).

When comes up will eventually go down. As a young person who is going to get married in another few more months and getting a real ground feel of the sizzling hot resale and private property market since we are unable to purchase a new HDB flat due to income ceiling, I feel it is worthwhile to wait for the market to come down, and live a financially free life and be happy and contribute to a small percentage increase to Singaporean's Happiness Index.; March 02, 2010 1:40 AM
Tan Kin Lian said...: It is fear that drives up property prices, - the fear of missing the boat, backed by the belief that prices will continue to go up and that government will not let it fall.

This is why the prices have gone beyond a reasonable affordable level.

When the tide change, it will be the same fear that bring down the prices. At that time, nobody wants to buy property and the owners are not willing to take a price cut until a force sale. When it happens, the price will fall 20% and still no buyers.

The market can remain stagnant for a long time.

The current increase in property prices is due to the unrealistically low interest rate of 1%.

This rate cannot remain at this level. It has to increase to its market level in the near future. That will be the time that the property prices must correct.; March 02, 2010 5:13 AM
Anonymous said...: Thanks Mr Tan for giving your sounding advice. I will wait patiently for the prices to drop significantly before I pick up a private property.; March 02, 2010 7:37 AM
wjsim said...: http://www101.hdb.gov.sg/hdbvsf/eampuadp.nsf/0/RS_PriceIndex/$file/Price%20Indices%20for%20Resale%20HDB%20Flats%203Q%28Actual%2909.pdf

Do take a look at the chart. Prices have only recently recovered to the pre-1997 crisis price. I don't believe in spotting patterns but I'll like to point out with the pre-1997 crisis price that going down is not impossible.

Some people say that renting is "wasting" money because there is no asset and it's purely an expense. If you believe that the "asset" will incur a drop in price, the smartest way is to rent. Let the owner suffer the drop in price for he is the one shouldering any risk of a drop in price. Should he increase rent as a result, it's your turn to buy.

It is greed that's driving up the price because people perceive that it will just go up. Fear is not around at all as there is no indication of price drops. What the market need may be a tightening of credit such as a raise of interest rate to bring back some fear.; March 02, 2010 8:03 AM
michael said...: VS Lingam mentioned about Malaysian buying property in Singapore. I know a Malaysian family of 5(the parents, two sons and a daughter). They came to Singapore some 20 years ago. They became PR later on. Both husband and wife worked a Sale promotor and earned a monthly income of around S$3,000.00. They pocketed twice a huge profit from their HDB resale flats. The two sons benefited from our good education system for years but refused to serve military National Service. Recently, the whole family bid farewell to Singapore and went back their home-town(KL) in Malaysia for good. Not long ago, we had PR from Hongkong, they bought HDB resale flats in Bishan town(the end result of sky-high HDB property prices in mid of 1990). I wonder how many of them are still around contributing to our economy. Perhaps, it is about time that our government should take good steps in fine-tuning a variety of their policy measures to protect our long-term interest in this area.; March 02, 2010 8:44 AM
Anonymous said...: I know many PR's (mostly Malaysian) working in Singapore for years, never take up Singapore Citizenship, continue to buy properties(mostly condo) to rent out. Surely there must be a way to limit such PR's to speculate in Singapore properties!; March 02, 2010 9:26 AM
Anonymous said...: It is never ending to second guess the HDB market. Going up or going down? Another issue is affordability and what the govt should or should not do. It is a difficult to come to a conclusion. HDB pricing must fall in line with a price model the Govt want e.g. affortable for mass, good value so that retirees benefits, tie Singaporean down to minimize brain drain. This is what I think but may not be the govt model. We can only see Govt actions, their statements and make intelligent guess what they are trying to do.

At this time, nothing change. As long as the mass of discontent is not hugh, having a high price HDB suit their strategy and they are proud of it. The rest of their time is then focus of saying the political correct thing to make the "daft" people happy e.g. HDB will continue to be affortable, let market decide the price, Govt is subsidizing HDB flats thus it is affortable for the mass.

As of major future actions for HDB, nothing much. Just ride along, sing the same song. Why fix it when it is not broken. Maybe knocking MBT out of Tampines will wake those millionairs up but I doubt it will happen. As long as I am concern, I am a floater or a independent.; March 02, 2010 10:01 AM
Anonymous said...: My PRs (Malaysian) colleagues work in Spore for years. They earn Spore dollars and bought private properties in Malaysia and collect rent. When they work in Spore, their passive income is also growing too.; March 02, 2010 10:03 AM
Anonymous said...: Always exercise DUE DILIGENCE when investing or buying a Property.

Many people I know bought bigger size apartments whether Private or HDB and the endresult?....Paying higher mortgages or interest thus enslaving themselves.

Small is beautiful and meaningful so that you will manage whatever savings for the rainy day!; March 02, 2010 10:51 AM
Anonymous said...: Markets go up and down. For own stay or conservative investments, it does not matter which cycle you are in as you may always sell when the prices are higher than you bought. The trick is Time, not timing, but holding power. e.g. if you buy a unit at $1000psf to stay at a comfortable mortgage. Should price move down $200psf, you may feel the pitch but will not sell cos for own stay. When the price moves up $200psf, you will feel elated (shiok) but will not sell cos troublesome to move and look for a new place. It is a different story when you cannot afford the house, you have to sell at whatever price at whatever cycle.

Foreigners like china chinese do not snap up our property, but it is the culture of their buying property in China. The price is stated and the negotiations will go above instead of negotiate downwards asking price like in Singapore. Singaporeans take too long to compare prices, 'feel' the house but missed out the concept of demand/supply. The Chinese grasps it too well. THe Chinese invest like FAR EAST in HK. "When you bought expensive, just sell higher lah..."

Look at areas in your price budget. Most buyers tend to 'look high, hands low', meaning looking at higher price estate then complain too expensive.

For genuine buyers, look somewhere comfortable in your budget. Stay and appreciate the property.Then save $$ and if timing comes for your dream property to be affordable, then move.; March 02, 2010 1:39 PM
Anonymous said...: If Israel were to attack Iran nuclear sites property market will collapse like a pack of cards. This is a wild card which everybody hope will not happen but the chances are increasing everyday. If Israel sees that her survival is at stake anything can happen.; March 02, 2010 1:45 PM
optimist said...: Just watch the interest rates.

This will determine the direction of the property market.

But it wont happen soon.( not in the next 3 years at least). There is so much money swashing around!
Japanes Yen is cheap
Euro is cheap
Stering pound is cheap

Never in the history of economics has it been like that!
Enjoy the cheap jeans, handbags, shoes, food... so much money around!!.. stock market up
property market up

COE up DJIA up
Company profits up: SIA,KEPCorp
SemCorp,Hyflux,Prudential,.. even disasters like earthquakes dont seem to affect any market at all!
( except copper commodities )
Oil prices have come down
NATAS travel fair up!

Enjoy the ride.. its not ending anytime soon.. as least not the next 3 years!; March 02, 2010 2:51 PM
Anonymous said...: The boat per se is not the issue. To where the boat brings you can be a problem !

Relax lah when the boat is already crowded. Give it a miss !

Cheers !; March 02, 2010 4:54 PM
Anonymous said...: 7 UP:
1.STI up
2.Property Prices Up
3.COE Up.
4.Electricity Tariff Up.
5.Property Tax Up due to NAV
6.DevelopmentCharges/Worker Levy Up
7.That drives the Cost of LIVING Up; March 02, 2010 5:20 PM
Anonymous said...: I read on other forum that PRCs are buying HDB with cash (ie no bank loans). Some are buying 13 units in a condo still under construction. That is a lot of money coming into Singapore.
I think the government is in 2 mind now, they think there is a bubble but don't want to take the blame for deflating it.
So they implement baby steps to control the market.
I think the main concern now is not really property price but FOOD SECURITY. There are so much flood and drought in the world that food price is creeping up (and in some place rocketed), we rely on import but will be a the mercy of the seller.
I think is it an issue that the government have to address. Diversification of supply is not a real answer as we have to compete with other buyers. So the higher bidder get the FOOD.; March 03, 2010 5:32 AM
Anonymous said...: Who cares if you miss the boat as the demand for properties will see an increase in stamp duties collected that will enrich the Gahment coffers too.

Let Market Forces Decide until the Bubble burst! We never learn our lessons when buying inflated properties .........look at Japan?; March 04, 2010 1:12 PM
Anonymous said...: The Asian mindset has the image of poverty and despair.. which they try to avoid totally. The fear of not having enough is real.
Having one property is not enough because, they see the wealthy get wealthier and they follow the foot steps.
No amount of talking is going to convince otherwise.. no one learns from history. It will be repeated and here lies consistency:

Greed and Fear.

These two are brother and sister.; March 05, 2010 11:12 AM
Anonymous said...: Definitely "Miss the Boat" if immigration targets of 20,000 immigrants per year, will lead for more housing needs; March 05, 2010 12:33 PM

Monday, March 01, 2010

Missing the boat

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