I expect a swing of 15% to 20% against the PAP at the next general election, due to several factors.
Click on these links to see the results of the simulation.
15% swing
http://tklcloud.com/Election/const2.aspx?id=1748
20% swing
http://tklcloud.com/Election/const2.aspx?id=1749
The actual seats won by the non PAP parties may change, due to realignment of the parties, but the seats won by the PAP is likely to be quite stable.
You can carry out your own simulation here:
http://tklcloud.com/Election/const.aspx
Note - the results of the simulation for the same swing percentage by differ due to a random factor built into the simulation. You can try the same swing a few times and see how the results may differ. The difference will be small.
Click on these links to see the results of the simulation.
15% swing
http://tklcloud.com/Election/const2.aspx?id=1748
20% swing
http://tklcloud.com/Election/const2.aspx?id=1749
The actual seats won by the non PAP parties may change, due to realignment of the parties, but the seats won by the PAP is likely to be quite stable.
You can carry out your own simulation here:
http://tklcloud.com/Election/const.aspx
Note - the results of the simulation for the same swing percentage by differ due to a random factor built into the simulation. You can try the same swing a few times and see how the results may differ. The difference will be small.
1 comment:
In the game of prediction, note the Chinese idiom,
Heavens make a better prediction than man.
Even our PAP Govt, no matter how shrewd, the leaders are bad at political predictions overseas, betting on the wrong horse time and time again -
No blacks can be President of white America,
Hillary of the Democrats would surely win the Presidency,
Najib's UMNO would surely win the Malaysian polls albeit a slimmer majority.
Ditto with Singapore politics.
No matter how the next Election pans out, have to stay calm, just protect our health, and concentrate on our jobs, have a Plan B or exit plan to protect ourselves, honestly, with power in the hands of a small circle of Elites and no 'real" confidence in the so called 4G leaders brought up comfortably in the Green house, plus the weak, tame WP in Opposition, all these dun evoke much comfort in our future.
It would be status quo as usual, just zip up our mouths and live day to day, and meditate to calm down mentally......
Unless a charismatic figure pops up suddenly like that Jack in the Box.
But we resent the ever escalating cost of living.
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