Wisdom of the Crowd: 51% of the respondents think that the infected foreign workers will not pose a danger to the general community. 49% think that it would.
Friday, May 22, 2020
Tuesday, May 19, 2020
Reduce reliance on foreign workers
The covid-19 crisis has shown the flaws in Singapore's reliance on foreign workers.
Due to the unsanitary and overcrowded conditions in the foreign worker dormitories, the covid virus has inflected most, if not all, the foreign workers.
It has caused the government to implement a circuit breaker (it is actually a lockdown) for two months. The cost to the economy is a horrendous $60 billion (my estimate), which could have been used to suspend GST totally for six years.
Looking ahead, what can Singapore do to reduce the reliance on foreign workers?
Foreign workers in community facilities
There are videos showing the foreign workers in the community facilities who are not observing social distancing. They congregate and socialize.
Some people commented that they are having a good time - no need to work, get three meals a day and get paid in full.
But other people said that they depend more on overtime pay, so the confinement is hard on their finances.
It becomes a lose-lose situation.
Some people commented that they are having a good time - no need to work, get three meals a day and get paid in full.
But other people said that they depend more on overtime pay, so the confinement is hard on their finances.
It becomes a lose-lose situation.
I hope that this is a good lesson for the country, and for the government. The reliance on foreign workers is bad, and has hit us badly.
Quora: If Trump were to cancel debt to China, would other countries think twice about buying US bonds in the future?
Buddha Buck, studied at University at Buffalo answered
Let’s rephrase that: If Trump were to default on 4% of the US debt, would every investor in the world think twice about buying US bonds in the future?
Yes, yes they would. And for good reason. It would mean that the trustworthiness of the US government to pay back the debt — like it has been doing continuously since 1789 — is gone. The US would be a dead-beat nation, unable to raise money via debt it needs to finance its operations.
The US economy would collapse. Of the $22T GDP, a good $5T of that comes directly from government spending. Except the government can’t spend anything because they don’t have the money.
Taxes would go up sharply, and government spending would fall. Neither of which is particularly good for the economy.
Investors would flee US Bonds, driving the price of those bonds down and the yields up, reflecting the suddenly increased risk of owning the bonds. Prices of other bonds and of stocks, etc, would go up as literally tens of trillions of dollars flood the market from former US Bond-holders who now want something else, anything else, than US Bonds.
The main “country” that owns US bonds is the US. Not the US Government (although it owns quite a lot of US bonds), but the US public. Retirement funds, banks, wealthy individuals, companies, hedge funds, etc. The same is true for other “countries” that own US bonds — it isn’t just the governments, it’s other institutions as well. The reason it gets lumped all together is that the US Treasury reports only on the aggregate nationality of the bondholders. When you hear $1.268T of the US debt in February was owned by Japan, compared to $1.092T owned by China, that means that $1.268T of US debt was owned by entities based in Japan, not the Japanese government or the Japanese central bank.
It would also likely lead to Trump’s impeachment and removal from office. There is a very strong argument to be made that defaulting on the debt is unconstitutional. Certainly the completely foreseeable outcome of the debt is bad enough that even the Senate Republicans can’t cover for it.
Let’s rephrase that: If Trump were to default on 4% of the US debt, would every investor in the world think twice about buying US bonds in the future?
Yes, yes they would. And for good reason. It would mean that the trustworthiness of the US government to pay back the debt — like it has been doing continuously since 1789 — is gone. The US would be a dead-beat nation, unable to raise money via debt it needs to finance its operations.
The US economy would collapse. Of the $22T GDP, a good $5T of that comes directly from government spending. Except the government can’t spend anything because they don’t have the money.
Taxes would go up sharply, and government spending would fall. Neither of which is particularly good for the economy.
Investors would flee US Bonds, driving the price of those bonds down and the yields up, reflecting the suddenly increased risk of owning the bonds. Prices of other bonds and of stocks, etc, would go up as literally tens of trillions of dollars flood the market from former US Bond-holders who now want something else, anything else, than US Bonds.
The main “country” that owns US bonds is the US. Not the US Government (although it owns quite a lot of US bonds), but the US public. Retirement funds, banks, wealthy individuals, companies, hedge funds, etc. The same is true for other “countries” that own US bonds — it isn’t just the governments, it’s other institutions as well. The reason it gets lumped all together is that the US Treasury reports only on the aggregate nationality of the bondholders. When you hear $1.268T of the US debt in February was owned by Japan, compared to $1.092T owned by China, that means that $1.268T of US debt was owned by entities based in Japan, not the Japanese government or the Japanese central bank.
It would also likely lead to Trump’s impeachment and removal from office. There is a very strong argument to be made that defaulting on the debt is unconstitutional. Certainly the completely foreseeable outcome of the debt is bad enough that even the Senate Republicans can’t cover for it.
Sunday, May 17, 2020
Platform to process the contact tracing records
The govt require workplaces and business outlets to implement contract tracing. This must involve tens of million dollars. Most of the cost is incurred by businesses and are passed to their customers through higher prices.
How well is the contact tracing records being used? How often have the govt identified people who have been in contact with the infected people from their database?
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=3011
How well is the contact tracing records being used? How often have the govt identified people who have been in contact with the infected people from their database?
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=3011
Expansion of isolation facilities
There is a positive aspect in the actions taken by the ministerial task force during the covid-19 crisis.
They were able to expand the isolation facilities quickly when the need arose.
Discharge of patients staying in isolated facilities
1,164 patients were discharged from hospital and isolation facilities on 14 May 2020. This was described as a "high".
This is how I see the significance of this figure.
http://www.tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=3009
Quora: Why is the White House in “complete chaos” over the coronavirus?
Colin Riegels, admitted as a lawyer in five countries replied
A lot of this has been building for some time. Two of the more unusual features of the Trump administration were:
- usually when a new administration comes in there is a ‘handover period’ when the new team bed in with the old team to get briefed on the role and get a handle on the big issues. The Trump administration didn’t do this - they just fired everyone from Obama’s staff and then tried to work it out as best they could.
- A huge number of Federal posts still remain unfilled even after firing all the previous Obama staffers. This includes, amongst other things, the Federal task force (set up by the much hated Obama ) for dealing with infectious disease pandemics.
For bonus points: the US used to embed a member of staff permanently with China’s CDDC (equivalent of the US CDC) so that the US could be updated on any relevant developments in China. The Trump administration cancelled that post in 2017.
So, at the time when it really, really needs expertise and experience around it, the Trump White House finds itself very much alone. That has had fairly predictable consequences at the worst possible time.
Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues
1. Who should Joe Biden select as his vice president candidate?
2. How do you see the low spread of infection in the community?
Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx
Saturday, May 16, 2020
Vote in Wisdom of the Crowd
Submit your vote on these issues in The Wisdom of the Crowd. You will win a prize at the end of the month.
WOTC - Rally in the stock market
Wisdom of the Crowd: 80% of the respondents expect the current stock market rally to fizzle out. 20% are optimistic.
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1977
WOTC - Second wave of infection
Wisdom of the Crowd: 72% of the respondents said that the second wave of the infection will be less serious than the first wave. 28% expect it to be more serious.
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1976
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1976
Thursday, May 14, 2020
High death rates in UK, USA
The death rates in UK and USA increased sharply in recent months. They have nearly caught up with Italy and Spain.
The death per million population are
Spain 584
Italy 514
UK 489
USA 259
What is the reason for the sharp increase in UK and USA?
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=3001
Unhappy with M of Manpower
My friend managed to find a job recently. She is disappointed with the policy of the M of Manpower.
Quote:
It has been difficult for me in the last 10 years. I was always working on contract basis even with same or 15% to 20% lower of my salary.
Employer still prefers to employ foreigners. They do not need to contribute CPF or pay levy (Employment Pass Holder) and with poor/lower staff benefits. Foreigners always like to claim everything they also can do.
They can come early and work very late every day. This has affected the jobs available for Singaporeans.
I saw the foreigners bring their own culture and provide assistance to the employer to get more of their friends being employed. Some even exploit our local employees.
The workplace becomes a small community of their own. It is sad to see it is happening in Singapore.
I was jobless for almost more than 1.5 years. I think likely due to above 55 years old and today employer still favoured foreign talents rather than employing Singaporeans even for the same pay.
I have many years of experience in several functions and vast knowledge and experience working with different multinational companies. Still I could not find an employer willing to give me the opportunity.
Perhaps this time I am lucky to find an employer willing to employ me for my experience that I can contribute and age is not a factor. I bring to them my knowledge of enterprise resource planning.
Quote:
It has been difficult for me in the last 10 years. I was always working on contract basis even with same or 15% to 20% lower of my salary.
Employer still prefers to employ foreigners. They do not need to contribute CPF or pay levy (Employment Pass Holder) and with poor/lower staff benefits. Foreigners always like to claim everything they also can do.
They can come early and work very late every day. This has affected the jobs available for Singaporeans.
I saw the foreigners bring their own culture and provide assistance to the employer to get more of their friends being employed. Some even exploit our local employees.
The workplace becomes a small community of their own. It is sad to see it is happening in Singapore.
I was jobless for almost more than 1.5 years. I think likely due to above 55 years old and today employer still favoured foreign talents rather than employing Singaporeans even for the same pay.
I have many years of experience in several functions and vast knowledge and experience working with different multinational companies. Still I could not find an employer willing to give me the opportunity.
Perhaps this time I am lucky to find an employer willing to employ me for my experience that I can contribute and age is not a factor. I bring to them my knowledge of enterprise resource planning.
A sense of proportion
When I present a view after careful research, some people (I shall not call them idiots) will come to contradict and challenge me.
I find it difficult to engage in a discussion with them. They cannot tell the difference between 20 deaths (in Singapore) and 3,000 deaths (in Wuhan). They think both are the same in severity.
They cannot tell the difference between $60 billion and $60 million. They think both amounts are the same in magnitude.
They think that it is all right to spend $60 billion to reduce the number of infected cases. What nonsense!
They have no sense of proportion. They can't tell what is big, what is small, what is important, what is not.
They make their argument on lofty principles like "every life is invaluable".
What to do? I delete their nonsense. They can post their views in he insane ministers' Facebook pages. Their views will be welcome there.
WOTC - Increase in infection rates
Wisdom of the Crowd: 76% of the respondents said that the increase in infection of covid-19 will not lead to many deaths in Singapore.
WOTC - Extension of circuit breaker
Wisdom of the Crowd: 38% of the respondents agreed with the extension of the circuit breaker. 62% disagreed.
Use policy decisions based on risk evaluation
My friend sent me this link to an article about covid-19. I read it. It described the harm that the virus can do to the body.
I replied to my friend that I do not pay attention to scare stories. Even though the stories may be true, it applies to a small number of people. I will wait for more cases to be confirmed before I worry about this outcome. Meanwhile, I will treat it like an accident.
He replied - spoken like a true statistician.
I like to draw the following observations:
a) It is important to look at the actual data and to assess the cost of risk - i.e. the severity (amount of loss) and the frequency (or likelihood). If the cost is high, we should pay attention.
b) We should not worry about "what could happen". There are too many things that could happen. The sky could fall down, right?
c) Policy decisions should be made by proper risk evaluation, i.e. the cost of risk. It should not be made by "what could happen".
Wednesday, May 13, 2020
PM Johnson faces a dilemma
PM Johnson of the UK faces a dilemma. The death rate in the UK for covid-19 is quite high, at 482 per million, just slightly below Italy and Spain.
The lockdown has been damaging to the UK economy. He cannot continue the lockdown for much longer as the economic damage will be very serious.
He starts a public communication campaign to encourage the UK residents to return to work, but to continue safe measures. The people are not convinced about the new message. They are scared of of covid. They do not want to be exposed to the risk of infection.
Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues
1. Why were there so few deaths among the infected foreign workers?
Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx
WOTC - Mistake made by the ministerial task force
Wisdom of the Crowd: 48% of the respondents said that the ministerial task force made many mistakes along the way in the handling of the crisis. 40% said they overlook the overcrowding in the worker dormitories.
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1973
WOTC - Is the corona virus already widespread in the community?
Wisdom of the Crowd: 76% of the respondents said that the corona virus was already quite widespread in the community but did not cause much harm. 24% said that it the virus was well contained and did not spread widely in the community.
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1972
A risk management issue
I wish to pose a risk management issue for you to consider.
A low income family has a small amount of savings. They child is seriously ill. The medical expense will wipe out the entire savings. The chance of survival is low.
Should the family use the savings in an attempt to save their child? The parents want to do the best they can for the child.
A low income family has a small amount of savings. They child is seriously ill. The medical expense will wipe out the entire savings. The chance of survival is low.
Should the family use the savings in an attempt to save their child? The parents want to do the best they can for the child.
AGM Voting Software
I developed this platform for carrying out the voting in an AGM conducted over teleconferencing.
Several managing agents representing a few hundred condos in Singapore are interested in using this platform during the circuit breaker period.
You can view the videos and explanation of this platform here http://tklcloud.com/Meeting/home.aspx It can also be used for AGMs for associations, socieities and listed companies.
If you know of anybody who is interested in this platform, please refer them to kinlian@gmail.com.
Several managing agents representing a few hundred condos in Singapore are interested in using this platform during the circuit breaker period.
You can view the videos and explanation of this platform here http://tklcloud.com/Meeting/home.aspx It can also be used for AGMs for associations, socieities and listed companies.
If you know of anybody who is interested in this platform, please refer them to kinlian@gmail.com.
Tuesday, May 12, 2020
Deaths per million
A good indicator of the severity of the covid-19 virus is the death per million of population. Here are the figures, ranked by country that are most severely hit. Most of these countries are in Europe and North America, which has just passed through winter. The countries in South East Asia have low rates as they are in the warm climate. Australia also just passed through summer and have low rates as well.
Some of the countries with cold climates have low death rates due to better social discipline. They include South Korea, Japan and China.
Some of the countries with cold climates have low death rates due to better social discipline. They include South Korea, Japan and China.
Risk management concept
Some people argued that human life is valuable and that every effort should be made to save every human life and that money should not be an issue.
This is an irrational approach.
The flaws in this argument are:https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2985
Profitable companies return subsidies under Job Support schemes
Some profitable companies, such as banks and pharmaceutical companies, have returned the subsidies given by the government under the Job Support schemes.
Their action is laudable. However, some other profitable companies may pocket the subsidies.
This shows the weakness of the approach adopted by the finance minister to help business meet the cost of the circuit breaker measures.
What is a better approach?
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2984
Learn the fundamentals of risk management
Many people think that the best option is to have a total lockdown of the economy to stop the spread of the corona virus. This is often the wrong approach. It is too costly.
In risk management, we have to consider several approaches and weigh the cost of each option. This takes into account the severity and the frequency.
This risk management concept is explained in this course. It is available FREE now.
The risk management concept can also apply to personal risk management, e.g. should you buy insurance, what kind, and is it worth it?
https://tklcloud.com/Event/event_det.aspx?ID=105
Immunity from the corona virus
Many people are worried that immunity from the corona virus will not last long. They will be reinfected by a mutation of the virus.
That is true.
Read this post to get a more complete understanding on this topic.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2983
WOTC - Test the foreign workers
Wisdom of the Crowd: 71% of the respondents said that the government should test all the foreign workers and allow the uninfected ones to return to work, instead of locking down the entire country.
WOTC: Extend the circuit breaker
Wisdom of the Crowd: 32% of the respondents support the decision of the government to extend the circuit breaker. The other 68% prefer other approaches to deal with the corona virus.
Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues
1. Will the second wave of the virus be serious?
2. With the benefit of hindsight, what is the best approach to stop the virus?
Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx
Monday, May 11, 2020
Safe Entry app
The Safe Entry age is well designed. It is easy to use. It records the particulars of a visitor who passes through a checkpoint of a mall or a facility. The person uses his mobile phone to register a safe entry.
Its drawback is that it does not cater for a visitor who is not familiar with the use of a mobile app or does not have a mobile phone on the visit.
Global trends on covid cases and deaths
These graphs of covid cases and deaths globally continue to show a healthy trend. The cases have stabilized. The deaths have dropped.
They support the views expressed by some epidemiologists (disease experts) that the virus have passed its peaks. Usually, they spread and caused deaths and illness for a few months.
Some other experts said that the drop is due to lockdown measures.
I believe the first group that it is the natural cause of a virus pandemic.
I also observed that the daily figures for a weekend tends to be lower. Perhaps some countries do not report fully during the weekends and push their figures to Monday.
They support the views expressed by some epidemiologists (disease experts) that the virus have passed its peaks. Usually, they spread and caused deaths and illness for a few months.
Some other experts said that the drop is due to lockdown measures.
I believe the first group that it is the natural cause of a virus pandemic.
I also observed that the daily figures for a weekend tends to be lower. Perhaps some countries do not report fully during the weekends and push their figures to Monday.
Be respectful when giving your views
I have often seen people giving their views out of ignorance. They do not understand the subject well. They have gained some knowledge about the subject by reading the views of other people, but their understanding is limited.
They challenge the views of other people who are usually more knowledgeable about the subject.
Here are some tips to avoid acting in what may appear to be an arrogant manner.
Sunday, May 10, 2020
Stay Safe at Home
To stop the spread of the covid-19 virus, the government has introduced the circuit breaker and closed most workplaces and businesses. They compelled the people to stay at home and avoid going out for social activities.
Most people support these measures. They consider that it is very important to stop the spread of the virus. They consider the heavy economic cost, which I estimated to be $60 billion, to be worth the saving of lives.
They do not realize that the conclusion is not as simple as it appears.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2977
Herd immunity
Most people think that herd immunity is a risky strategy for a country to adopt, as the rapid spread of the covid-19 virus can cause serious illness and deaths.
There are several epidemiologists who prefer to avoid a lockdown, as it does not solve the problem. It will cause a lot of harm to the economy. When the lockdown is relaxed, as it cannot be continued for too long, the virus will continue to spread as a large proportion of the population has not gained immunity.
These experts prefer a strategy to isolate and protect the vulnerable population, i.e the elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions, and allow the general population to gain the immunity. I wish to share the views of these experts and a political leader.
Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues
1. Are you alarmed at the increase of deaths from covid-19?
2. Will the covid-19 virus spread rapidly after the circuit breaker is relaxed?
Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx
WOTC - Extend circuit breaker measures
Wisdom of the Crowd: 43% said that it was necessary for the government to extend the circuit breaker measures. 57% disagreed.
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1969
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1969
WOTC - Top executive salaries in Temasek Holdings
Wisdom of the Crowd: 96% of the respondents said that Temasek Holding should publish the salaries of its top executives.
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1968
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1968
Saturday, May 09, 2020
The government has lost the balance
I received this feedback from Mr. Fong Dear Tan, While many had applause the government for the CB measures. I think that the government has lost the balance. https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2972
Protect the elderly people from the virus
At long last, the ministers are now paying to the residents of nursing homes and the care workers.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/…/covid-19-testing-nursing-…
I guess that they are preparing to remove the circuit breaker from the general population and focus the attention with the elderly population.
I have advocated this strategy all along. I find the circuit breaker to be unnecessary, unwise and wasteful. I find the extension of the circuit breaker to be "insane".
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2971
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/…/covid-19-testing-nursing-…
I guess that they are preparing to remove the circuit breaker from the general population and focus the attention with the elderly population.
I have advocated this strategy all along. I find the circuit breaker to be unnecessary, unwise and wasteful. I find the extension of the circuit breaker to be "insane".
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2971
High number of covid-19 cases in America
America has the highest number of cases and deaths of covid-19 among all the countries in the world. It has 1.3 million cases and 78,000 deaths as at 8 May 2020. Why is the number so high? https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2970
Friday, May 08, 2020
WOTC - Lower death rate
Wisdom of the Crowd. 41% of the respondents said that the death rate is lower in Singapore because of excellent medical facilities. 37% said that the virus is less lethal in warm weather.
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1966
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1966
WOTC - Extension of circuit breaker
Wisdom of the Crowd: 51% of the respondents said that the circuit breaker should NOT be extended beyond 4 May. 49% said it should.
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1966
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1966
South Korea prepares for second wave
Coronavirus: South Korea bracing for 'inevitable' second wave
https://www.straitstimes.com/…/coronavirus-south-korea-brac…?
TKL comments. I am afraid that a second, third and subsequent wave is inevitable. It is very difficult to contain the virus.
It is better to adopt a strategy to protect the vulnerable population, i.e. the elderly and those with underlying medical conditions.
See here:
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2966
https://www.straitstimes.com/…/coronavirus-south-korea-brac…?
TKL comments. I am afraid that a second, third and subsequent wave is inevitable. It is very difficult to contain the virus.
It is better to adopt a strategy to protect the vulnerable population, i.e. the elderly and those with underlying medical conditions.
See here:
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2966
Thursday, May 07, 2020
Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues
Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx
The negative aspect of lockdown
Many governments implement lockdown to stop the spread of the covid-19 virus. It may be the wrong strategy. It may make the pandemic more serious.
Why?
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2966
WOTC - Encourage locals to take the jobs now done by foreigners
Wisdom of the Crowd: 58% of the respondents want the government to improve the wages and working conditions to encourage locals to do the jobs now done by foreign workers. 42% want to continue to use foreign workers for these jobs.
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1965
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1965
WOTC - Improve the living conditions in the worker dormitories
Wisdom of the Crowd: 72% of the respondents said that we should reduce the overcrowding of the worker dormitories. 20% said that the hygiene should be improved.
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1964
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1964
Wednesday, May 06, 2020
Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues
1. Should we reduce reliance on foreign workers?
2. Should we continue the segregation between locals, PR and foreigners?
Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx
2. Should we continue the segregation between locals, PR and foreigners?
Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx
WOTC - Compulsory to wear face mask
Wisdom of the Crowd: 46% of the respondents support the decision to make wearing of face masks mandatory. The other 52% have a different opinion.
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1963
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1963
WOTC - Biggest blunder by ministerial task force
Wisdom of the Crowd: 52% of the respondents said that the biggest blunder made by the ministerial task force is failing to deal early with the transmission in the foreign worker dormitories. 33% said that it is the delay in calling for the use of face masks.
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1962
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1962
Are we paying for the cost of relying too much on foreign workers?
To answer this question, I like to estimate the cost of the relief measures caused by the economic downturn and more specifically the circuit breaker measures.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2957
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2957
Tuesday, May 05, 2020
Containment of Covid-19 Spread
I sent this letter to the two ministers who co-chair the task force two week ago. I sent them a reminder after a week. They did not acknowledge or reply on both occasions.
Maybe, they were already checked into IMH (institute of mental health). Hahaha.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2956
Maybe, they were already checked into IMH (institute of mental health). Hahaha.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2956
Creating jobs for Singaporeans after the pandemic
The Singapore economy will be transformed.
The global economy in the future will have less global trade. Most countries will manufacture a bigger proportion of their products at home. This will affect Singapore badly. There will be less global trade and the need for financial services. Many of the well paying jobs in the past will disappear.
How can Singaporeans, especially the younger ones, find jobs in the future?
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2955
The global economy in the future will have less global trade. Most countries will manufacture a bigger proportion of their products at home. This will affect Singapore badly. There will be less global trade and the need for financial services. Many of the well paying jobs in the past will disappear.
How can Singaporeans, especially the younger ones, find jobs in the future?
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2955
Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues
2. How will the covid-19 pandemic be eradicated?
Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx
WOTC - Teleconferencing
Wisdom of the Crowd: 52% of respondents are not familiar with the use of teleconferencing. For the remaining 48%, more than half prefer to use Zoom over the other platforms.
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1961
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1961
WOTC - Most popular teleconferencing platform
Wisdom of the Crowd: 60% of respondents are willing to use Zoom for teleconferencing. The other 40% prefer to use other platforms.
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1960
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1960
Will international travel and tourism recover after the pandemic?
The pandemic will be over by mid 2021 or earlier. It may die off naturally or a vaccine will be found.
It is likely that international travel and tourism will resume.
But I do not expect it to return to the level that occurred prior to the pandemic. Here are my reasons:
http://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2951
It is likely that international travel and tourism will resume.
But I do not expect it to return to the level that occurred prior to the pandemic. Here are my reasons:
http://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2951
Quora: What do you think of Trump saying that the U.S. is going to seek compensation from China over COVID-19?
Kevin Randolf, Self Employed, answered
What for?
The truth, and that's what any court outside the USA looks at, is that the USA had as much warning and probably more than everyone in the world and yet failed to respond indeed it played politics and lied to its population about the seriousness of the pandemic, taking no real steps to address the issue until 8 weeks after most of the world!
The USA also had at least 12 personnel within the WHO during the entire progress of this outbreak!
However I would suspect that Iraq's people have a rock solid case against the USA for the 2nd Iraq war and subsequent theft of it's oil assets amongst other things!
This is backed up solid evidence and even confessions!
We all know that America considers itself above the law anyway so nothing will happen, hell if you're American you can drive on the wrong side of the road in a foreign country and kill someone and your government will help you escape!
So I hope you'll excuse the world when it doesn't agree with America, yet again, refusing to take responsibility for it's own actions and continually blaming others!
Your credibility is zero!
What for?
The truth, and that's what any court outside the USA looks at, is that the USA had as much warning and probably more than everyone in the world and yet failed to respond indeed it played politics and lied to its population about the seriousness of the pandemic, taking no real steps to address the issue until 8 weeks after most of the world!
The USA also had at least 12 personnel within the WHO during the entire progress of this outbreak!
However I would suspect that Iraq's people have a rock solid case against the USA for the 2nd Iraq war and subsequent theft of it's oil assets amongst other things!
This is backed up solid evidence and even confessions!
We all know that America considers itself above the law anyway so nothing will happen, hell if you're American you can drive on the wrong side of the road in a foreign country and kill someone and your government will help you escape!
So I hope you'll excuse the world when it doesn't agree with America, yet again, refusing to take responsibility for it's own actions and continually blaming others!
Your credibility is zero!
Monday, May 04, 2020
Changing to a new lifestyle
The circuit breaker caused people to work from home and children to use home based learning. People also get familiar with ordering food to be delivered to the home.
After the pandemic, I expect the following change to the lifestypes in Singapore.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2947
After the pandemic, I expect the following change to the lifestypes in Singapore.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2947
Sunday, May 03, 2020
Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues
1. Do you support the extension of the circuit breaker?
2. Will Singapore's economy recover after the circuit breaker?
Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx
WOTC - Home based earning
Wisdom of the Crowd: 63% of the respondents said that the students find it difficult to carry out home learning.
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1958
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1958
WOTC - Working at home
Wisdom of the Crowd: 68% of the respondents like working at home for office based jobs.
Bring manufacturing back home
After the pandemic, I see many countries will try to bring manufacturing back to their home countries. They will want to shorten the supply chain. It will be reverse of globalization that has happened during the past three decades.
This move will be driven by two factors. One is the need to create jobs in the home country. The other is to have security in the supply of essential products.
There will be greater emphasis on the security of food supplies. Many countries will build their agriculture. Governments will create stockpiles for food staples that has to be grown in other countries.
Businesses will still reply on overseas supplies for some of their raw materials. They will have to build inventories of their raw materials to prevent a disruption of supplies. For essential products, a bigger inventory will be required.
Governments are also likely to create stockpiles of essential materials and food.
To make local manufacturing viable, countries will have to implement tariffs on imports. We will see a return to a higher level of protectionism. World trade will reduce to some extent, but not totally.
In the new economic order, I see more protectionism, less globalization, building of stockpiles of essential products, less world trade.
Singapore will be badly affected by these trends, as we provide logistic services and have a small home market. We will have to adjust to the changes ahead.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2946
Expansion of isolation facilities
I wish to give credit to the ministerial task force for the speed in which they have expanded the isolation facilities for people who are tested positive for the covid-19 virus.
They have already added 18,000 beds within a short time and plan to add another 23,000 beds by the end of June. See report.
This was useful to accommodate the recent spite in cases, most of which are found in the foreign worker dormitories.
My friend, who is a skeptic, said that this is not an outstanding achievement. It does not require highly paid ministers to arrive at this decision or to oversees its execution. He said that many other countries have also responded in this manner. We only need to follow their lead.
My friend also pointed out that many ordinary people have suggested earlier to expand the facilities. These people are not as highly paid as the ministers.
I do not want to argue against my friend, the skeptic. So, I will give credit to our highly paid ministers for their good response.
I do criticize the ministers for their bad judgment in many aspects of their handling of this crisis, especially with the costly and unnecessary circuit breaker. That is a separate issue.
I have put up several dozen posts on the handling of the covid-19 crisis over the past two months. See here. My approach is different from the ministerial task force on many issues. I will leave it to history to judge whether the ministerial task force had acted correctly.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2945
They have already added 18,000 beds within a short time and plan to add another 23,000 beds by the end of June. See report.
This was useful to accommodate the recent spite in cases, most of which are found in the foreign worker dormitories.
My friend, who is a skeptic, said that this is not an outstanding achievement. It does not require highly paid ministers to arrive at this decision or to oversees its execution. He said that many other countries have also responded in this manner. We only need to follow their lead.
My friend also pointed out that many ordinary people have suggested earlier to expand the facilities. These people are not as highly paid as the ministers.
I do not want to argue against my friend, the skeptic. So, I will give credit to our highly paid ministers for their good response.
I do criticize the ministers for their bad judgment in many aspects of their handling of this crisis, especially with the costly and unnecessary circuit breaker. That is a separate issue.
I have put up several dozen posts on the handling of the covid-19 crisis over the past two months. See here. My approach is different from the ministerial task force on many issues. I will leave it to history to judge whether the ministerial task force had acted correctly.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2945
Saturday, May 02, 2020
Life will be different after the pandemic
After the covid-19 pandemic is over, we will see a different world. Life will be different.
Many countries will bring their production back home. They will rely less on China to manufacture the essential products.
There will be more online activities - schooling, work from home, marketing.
GDP growth will be slower. It will be better for the environment and reduce the harm from climate change.
I will share views of the new way of life from other thinkings. I will also share my views.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2942
Many countries will bring their production back home. They will rely less on China to manufacture the essential products.
There will be more online activities - schooling, work from home, marketing.
GDP growth will be slower. It will be better for the environment and reduce the harm from climate change.
I will share views of the new way of life from other thinkings. I will also share my views.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2942
Friday, May 01, 2020
Government act like monkey see, monkey do
Governments act like monkey see, monkey do. Singapore is worse. We follow other government blindly, even when our risk is quite different from them.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2937
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2937
Swedish economy also suffered a downturn
Mr. Tan
You favored the approach taken by Sweden where they did not have a lockdown and suffer a smaller economic impact.
Can you read this report. It said that Sweden will suffer an economic decline that may be worse than other countries that have a lockdown.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-sweden-economy-to-contract-as-severely-as-the-rest-of-europe.html?&qsearchterm=sweden
What you say now?
TKL reply
Hello. The circuit breaker measures adopted in Singapore caused an estimated $60 billion for 6 million people. We also suffer a big economic decline.
Sweden has a population of 10 million people? Did they spend $100 billion (SGD) to provide relief measures? I do not think they spent money to this scale. I think that they real cost is quite modest, compared to Singapore.
Similarly America had to provide economic relief of several trillion dollars. Their spending per capita is similar to Singapore.
It was possible to reduce the spread of the virus through other measures, instead of a lockdown or circuit breaker. Our minister made a poor judgment to impose the circuit breaker measures.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2936
You favored the approach taken by Sweden where they did not have a lockdown and suffer a smaller economic impact.
Can you read this report. It said that Sweden will suffer an economic decline that may be worse than other countries that have a lockdown.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-sweden-economy-to-contract-as-severely-as-the-rest-of-europe.html?&qsearchterm=sweden
What you say now?
TKL reply
Hello. The circuit breaker measures adopted in Singapore caused an estimated $60 billion for 6 million people. We also suffer a big economic decline.
Sweden has a population of 10 million people? Did they spend $100 billion (SGD) to provide relief measures? I do not think they spent money to this scale. I think that they real cost is quite modest, compared to Singapore.
Similarly America had to provide economic relief of several trillion dollars. Their spending per capita is similar to Singapore.
It was possible to reduce the spread of the virus through other measures, instead of a lockdown or circuit breaker. Our minister made a poor judgment to impose the circuit breaker measures.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2936
Quora: After the covid-19 threat is over, will you be less likely to purchase Chinese-made products?
Lance Chambers answered:
I don’t have a problem with China.
They didn’t create the virus. They didn’t ALLOW it to escape their borders and infect others.
They worked as hard as they could to stop it and it seems that they have succeeded.
At the start when they first realised that Civid-19 wasn’t the regular flu that erupts in China it was too late. They let the world know that this was different as soon as they realised the truth.
They are donating PPE to a host of nations that are in dire need and even to the US. After all the insults being aimed at them by the US. I would not have sent America anything if I was in control of China. Maybe it a good thing I’m not in charge.
In fact I think I will start buying from Alibaba from now on and leave Amazon alone. Not only will that improve my bank balance but I will be buying from what I believe is a far more moral nation.
Why is NRIC now used for entry to malls and supermarkets?
Many people question why are malls and supermarkets asking people to bring their NRIC when private establishments are not allowed to ask for NRIC under the law.
My answer - the law is STUPID. The NRIC is the best way to identify a person. It should not be a secret.
The ban on the use of NRIC was another bad judgment by the government. We are now seeing problems arising from the bad law.
This government made a lot of costly policy mistakes that harm the economy, increase our cost of doing business and damage our competitiveness.
The ban on the use of NRIC has caused the private establishments to send tens of million dollars to change their computer system. It also increased their operating costs.
The ban on the use of NRIC has caused the private establishments to send tens of million dollars to change their computer system. It also increased their operating costs.
Dealing with the economic downturn
I have written several posts on I would deal with the economic downturn caused by the covid-19 pandemic.
My most important post is here:
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2682
Here are a collection of posts on dealing with the economic downturn.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/latest.aspx?idorg=226
My most important post is here:
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2682
Here are a collection of posts on dealing with the economic downturn.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/latest.aspx?idorg=226
Thursday, April 30, 2020
Singapore's response to the covid-19 crisis
Someone asked me - what are my views about covid-19.
He was a regular follower. I am surprised that he had to ask this question. Maybe he was not paying attention.
I refer him to this website. I must have put up several dozen posts on this topic.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/latest.aspx?idorg=215
I can summarise my key view.
The virus is mild in Singapore. It resulted in 14 deaths. Only 22 are now in ICU. In comparison, America has 61,000 deaths.
Our death rate is 2 per million. America is 168. Some countries in Europe have a death rate between 300 to 520.
The virus is serious in other countries. It is mild in Singapore.
To stop the spread of the virus, we could have followed the practice in S Korea and Taiwan. They strengthen social distancing and encourage the use of face mask. They did not implement any lockdown or circuit breaker.
Our lockdown will probably cost the government $60 billion (my estimate). It is a LOT OF MONEY. It is not $60 million. It is BILLIONS. It could have been avoided.
Several hundred thousand livelihoods were severely disrupted. They involved workers and the self employed. Most of them do not get adequate compensation.
I know that there are many cases discovered among the foreign workers living in the crowded dormitories. It was possible to isolate the infected people and to quarantine those who are not sick.
We would have to stop work in the construction and other worksites which rely on these foreign workers as most of the foreign workers were isolated or quarantined.
There was no need to stop work in the workplaces for the locals. The risk of transmission is low and the impact is not serious.
My views are based on my reading of reports from experts all over the world and my special analysis of the data in Singapore and around the world.
I form my opinion after careful study and analysis. I do not give comments out of ignorance or prejudice.
I disagree with the logic put up by many people. They argue that the virus was dangerous in other countries. They said that we would see similar deaths if we do not implement the same measures that they did.
Their views ignore the facts. The virus is mild in Singapore. We are not seeing the same kind of hospitalization, intensive care and deaths.
I disagree with the circuit breaker when it was first introduced and when it was extended.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2934
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