Wednesday, December 02, 2009

Optimism in Banda Aceh

My friend in Aceh told me the following:
a) Banda Aceh had a population of 250,000 before tsunami. Today, the population had increased to 400,000. More people came during the reconstruction. Some are likely to stay over the longer term.
b) The city is buzzing at night. The traffic is quite busy, although not as congested as large cities around the world.
c) Aceh is now peaceful, with the end of the insurgency and independence movement. The Governor of Aceh is a local person.

Tuesday, December 01, 2009

Holiday in Banda Aceh

I am travelling for a short holiday to Banda Aceh on 1 Decemeber and will return to Singapore on 5 December.

Risk Management

There are five ways to manage risk:

a) Avoidance
b) Loss control
c) Retention
d) Non-insurance transfer
e) Insurance

Insurance is just one method of risk management. It is appropriate only for the low frequency and high severity risks, such as premature death or serious disability. We only need to insure against the "premature" occurrence of these events, as everyone will have to die eventually and it cannot be prevented.

Most people use a combination of avoidance, loss control and retention to handle most risks of high frequency or low severity. There is no point in insuring against these risks as the cost of insurance is rather high and it is quite a hassle to make a claim.

Retention means that you set aside savings to pay for the losses that are likely to occur. It is better to have savings to pay for medical expenses and retirement income when one gets old, rather than depend on insurance to pay these benefits. Sometime, when you need insurance to pay your expenses, you may find that your claim is rejected due to some technical reason.

An example of "non-insurance transfer" is when your medical expenses are transferred to your employer through the contract of employment.

To summarize, having adequate savings is as important as having insurance. It is better to pay a small premium to cover the risk of premature death, accident or disability and to save the money separately for future needs.

However, if the insurance policy provides a good return on your savings, compared to other types of investments, it is all right to save through an insurance policy. For this to happen, the expense and other charges for the insurance policy must be much lower than it is now. The "effect of deduction" should not exceed 15% of the accumulated regular premiums (compared to 40% that is taken away now by most insurance policies).

Sayings of Confucius

> The nature of man is fundamentally good inclined towards goodness.
> The princely man sticks to virtue, and the inferior man clings to material comfort.
> The princely man is just while the inferior man expects rewards and favours.
> The princely man is dignified, noble, magnanimous, and humble while the inferior man is mean, proud, crooked, and arrogant.
> The Ruler should be virtuous, just, honest and dutiful.

Monday, November 30, 2009

Emergency jobs program

It's time for an emergency jobs programme. Low interest rate will not create jobs. Here is a view from a renowned economist.

Location map - fast and easy

If you need to produce a location map for your home or office quickly, or to find the location of your distance, you can use the Directory function in the Real Estate Data portal (www.easysearch.sg)

You can enter the postal code, address or name of the building. It will display the location map easily. You can save it into a PDF or print it out.

Try it.
http://projects.easyapps.sg/propinfo/Map.aspx

I am able to use this map to print the location of places that I have visited during my last trip to UK and for my next trip to Banda Aceh. It is so easy to use and useful.

Keynesian Economics

Source: Wikipedia


Keynesian economics is a macroeconomic theory based on the ideas of 20th-century British economist John Maynard Keynes. Keynesian economics argues that private sector decisions sometimes lead to inefficient macroeconomic outcomes and therefore advocates active policy responses by the public sector, including monetary policy actions by the central bank and fiscal policy actions by the government to stabilize output over the business cycle. The theories forming the basis of Keynesian economics were first presented in The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, published in 1936; the interpretations of Keynes are contentious, and several schools of thought claim his legacy.


Keynesian economics advocates a mixed economy—predominantly private sector, but with a large role of government and public sector—and served as the economic model during the latter part of the Great Depression, World War II, and the post-war Golden Age of Capitalism, 1945–1973, though it lost some influence following the stagflation of the 1970s. As a middle way between laissez-faire capitalism and socialism, it has been and continues to be attacked from both the right and the left.


The advent of the global financial crisis in 2007 has caused a resurgence in Keynesian thought. Keynesian economics has provided the theoretical underpinning for the plans of President Barack Obama, Prime Minister Gordon Brown and other global leaders to, allegedly, rescue the world economy.


COMMENT BY TAN KIN LIAN
Keynesian economics leads to deficit spending. It comprise of two strategies - low interest rate and government spending (to create demand). I prefer government spending (e.g. infrastructure and other useful projects) as it create jobs for people. I do not like low interest rate, as it leads to asset bubbles and benefit the asset owners.

False wealth

During the past two decades, many people thought that they were rich, as their properties and equities appreciate in value. This is false wealth on the back of an asset bubble.

They are the same assets but they were priced at inflated values due to low interest rate, financial engineering and leverage (i.e. high borrowings at low cost).

The global financial crisis of 2008 had brought the asset prices down to earth. Suddenly, many people realized that they were not so rich after all. The affluence brought about by financial innovation was an illusion.

We went through the collapse of the US housing bubble together with the associated asset backed securities, collateralized debt obligations, credit default swaps and other strange products. We will now face a second wave of problems with the default of Dubai World. What next?

Unfortunately, the people who suffer most will again be the ordinary people. They will face higher unemployment and still have to pay the heavy mortgage on their overpriced housing.

Those who think that the free market capitalism can create wealth should re-think again. Is it truth wealth or false wealth?

Tan Kin Lian

Sunday, November 29, 2009

Get Ready for Half a Recovery

Small businesses are still finding it difficult to get credit and the jobless rate will continue to be high for at least a year. Read this report.

EPL matches for 2010

27 people who watch EPL matches responded to my survey. Their responses are:

a) switch to Singtel: 40%
b) watch in pub and friends home: 30%
c) give up watching EPL: 30%

80% said that Singtel should accept Starhub's offer to broadcast the EPL and that MDA should mandate that this sharing be done. The same proportion said that it is wasteful to have 2 set top matches to watch the channels.

Buy term insurance directly through internet portals

Someone asked if it is possible to buy term insurance and family income benefit directly from an insurance company through an internet portal.

So far, the insurance companies in Singapore have been reluctant to offer this channel, as they are afraid of upsetting their insurance agents. I hope that this will become possible in the near future. There are many websites in USA that offers term insurance at very competitive rates, much lower than in Singapore.

Termination of Living Policy

Dear Mr Tan,
In 1993, I bought the above policy for myself and family members. I believe at that time, you were in charge of NTUC. I read that you have bought the above too but have since redeemed it. Would you be able to share why and should I continue or redeem the policy like you did. I am now 60 years old.

REPLY
My reasons to give up the living policy are:
a) I am now retired and will not suffer any loss of income in the event of disability
b) I expect medical expenses to be covered under my Medishield plan
c) If I have to pay expenses not covered under Medishield, I can pay out of my accumulated savings
d) I do not like the restructuring of bonus introduced by the new management.

Life insurance can serve a useful purpose

Life insurance is inherently a good product. It provides protection and encourages savings for the long term.

It becomes bad when too much of the savings is taken away from the policyholder, leading to a poor return to the policyholder, compared to other types of investments. It becomes worse when it is sold dishonestly, without disclosing the true cost to the policyholder or by deceiving the policyholder using half truths or outright lies.

It is possible to design life insurance products to give good value for policyholders and still allow an adequate rate of commission to the insurance agent. It allows the agent to make a honest living and to earn more through hard work, without making the customer poorer.

Some insurance companies practiced fair treatment of policyholder in the past, and even give a good rate of bonus based on what they have earned. This allowed the customer to earn a good rate of return, even after allowing for expenses and profit margin. It is possible to achieve this outcome in the future, if the principles of fair treatment of customers are observed.

Tan Kin Lian

Saturday, November 28, 2009

Payout under CPF Life

Dear Mr Tan
In the CPF-Life form they ask two questions (which I feel is irrevelant):
- annual assessable income
-annual value of house.

I am doing some part-time job with provides an irregular income and may downgrade to a smaller flat later on. I do not know if the CPF will pay me more, less or the same amount in the future, due to my change of circumstances.

I intend to put $75000.00 into my retirement account to join this scheme. Should I go ahead or put my money here or go elsewhere?

REPLY
The CPF ask you for the annual assessible income and the annual value of your house to determine if you quality for the full amount of the L-Bonus of $4,000, or a partial bonus or none at all. Apart from the L-Bonus, the monthly payout from the CPF Life will not be affected by your income or housing.

In my view, the CPF Life is attractive to the members as it is run operated as a non-profit and on mutual principles (i.e. all the members share the experience of the scheme fairly), has low expense ratio and earns an attractive interest rate of around 4%.

The annuity plan offered by the insurance companies, will not be able to offer this attractive payout.

Family Income Benefit

A family income benefit is a life insurance policy that pays a monthly income to the family following the death of the life assured. The income is payable for the remainder of the term.

I consider this type of insurance to be the most suitable policy for a person to take care of the financial needs of the family. It is more suitable than a term insurance policy.

Take the example of a male aged 30 with a monthly income of $3,000 and young children. He can buy a term insurance policy to cover $300,000 for 25 years and pay an annual premium of $720. For the same premium, he can buy a family income benefit to pay $3,000 a month from death until the end of 25 years.

If death occurs during the first year, the total payout is $3,000 X 12 X 25 = $900,000, but paid monthly over 25 years. This is 3 times the amount payable under level term insurance. If death occurs at end of year 15, the total payout is $3,000 X 12 X 10 years = $360,000, which is still more than the payout under the level term.

The monthly payout is better to meet the family needs, as the spouse does not need to worry about how to invest the lump sum.

Unfortunately, the insurance companies in Singapore are not keen to sell the family income benefit. Most of their sales are made through the agent, who wants to sell other life insurance policies that pays a higher commission to them. The agent will try to convince the customer to buy a policy that gives a return on the premiums, although the return is rather poor and is usually less than 2% per annum.

Some companies offer family income benefit, but they loaded up the premium to a much higher rate, to give a high profit and expense margin. The premium could be two times of what it should be.

To get a competitive rate, the customer should ask a few insurance companies to quote for a family income benefit to pay $X a month for a term of 25 years. If several companies are willing to quote the rate, they are likely to offer a more competitive rate, that reflects the actual cost of claims plus a fair margin for expenses and profit.

I hope that life insurance companies will offer this plan to be sold directly to customer through the internet.

Tan Kin Lian

Keep cash, and be safe

Someone asked for my views on how to invest money at this time. It is a difficult question.

I think that it is better to keep cash, i.e. put in a bank to earn 0.5% per annum. This may be a poor return, and does not cover inflation, but it is safer. I do not like the stock market as it has been inflated due to cheap money from the government stimulus packages around the world.

The underlying problems of the global economy has not been solved, as there is still high unemployment and lower consumer demand. People will be unwilling to spend, if they are not sure about the security of their jobs and incomes. When people spend less, more people will become unemployed. This leads to a depression.

While the global economy remains gloomy, and the underlying problems are not solved, it is better to keep cash. Some people rushed into gold and commodities, but their prices may be too high now.

I would be more confident when the governments around the world start to adopt Keynesian principles, i.e inflate the global economy by creating more jobs funded by the state. This will cause inflation a few years later, but will have the impact of reviving the global economy. At that time, I will start to invest in the stock markets. If the bond markets gives a higher yield (better than inflation), I may invest in bonds also.

Tan Kin Lian

New immigrant's loyalty to Singapore

Dr. Wong Wee Nam disagrees with Mr. Goh Chok Tong. Read this article here.

Someone ask, "Who is Dr. Wong Wee Nam?" You can learn more about him here.

An alternative to the free market economy

Many people dream of being a multi-millionaire. They love the free market economy, as it gives them the opportunity to pursue their dream. Let us stop chasing this dream for a while and reflect on what this issue is all about.

At any time, there is a limited number of assets in the world. These assets have to be shared by the people. If some people are multi-millionaires, other people have to be poorer to allow the rich to own more of the limited assets. This leads to income and wealth inequality.

It is possible for the world to produce more assets to be owned by more people. However, the over-production has lead to a depletion of the natural resources, damaging the environment and leaving less resources behind for the future generation. Is this what we really want? Do we really want to work hard to accumulate more assets than is really necessary? What about spending more time for family and friends?

Many people do not have the choice. They have to work hard to keep a job. Other people gets unemployed, so they have to offer their labor at lower rates to compete for the same jobs. This allows the business owners to make more profit and be richer.

This is what has been happening during the past two decades with global competition and the free market. It has lead to wide disparity of income and poorer living conditions for many people, while a few becomes super rich.

My observation is not new. It has happened in history. I am bringing the great philosophers of earlier times, such as Confucius and Karl Marx. Spend time to read about their teachings.

These philosophers tell us that there is an alternative system to the free market and competitive business environment. Do not be misled that the free market environment, that we are used to in recent years, is the only way or the best way to prosperity and a happier life.

Tan Kin Lian

Confucianism

Source: http://www.religion-cults.com/Eastern/Confucianism/confuci.htm

Confucianism is a "code of conduct" to live this life, and it has had a tremendous impact on how the Chinese live their lives... with a great influence in Chinese government, education, and attitudes toward correct personal behavior and the individual duties to society.

Confucius wanted to be a politician, even a Prime Minister, but he failed... and dedicated to preach good moral conduct... after his death he is the Chinese most influential in the history of China, and had all the honors he never had in life: The Government ordered the "worship of Confucius", and named him the "Co-Assessor with the deities of Heaven and Earth". His precepts and principles were incorporated into the Chinese Law in 210 BC.

His way to please God or the gods is through a "good conduct" with your family, neighbors, and society... if you are a good person, God is going to like you.

Some say that Confucianism is no religion in reality, because Confucius is a philosopher, moralist, statesman and educationist, but no religionist. They say that the thoughts and teachings of Confucius are ethical philosophy, political and educational principle, but not religious philosophy.

The "Jen": The essence of all his teachings may be summed up under this one word ‘Jen’. The nearest equivalent to this difficult word is "social virtue". All those virtues which help to maintain social harmony and peace like benevolence, charity, magnanimity, sincerity, respectfulness, altruism, diligence, loving kindness, goodness are included in Jen.

His "Golden Rule" is: "What you do not want done to yourself, do not do unto others". "The injuries done to you by an enemy should be returned with a combination of love and justice".

The "universal virtues" are: Wisdom, Benevolence, and Fortitude... Asked about what is "Benevolence", he answered: "It is to love all men"; what is "knowledge?: "It is to know all men"... The "perfect virtue": "Gravity, generosity of soul, sincerity, earnestness, and kindness".

Confucius laid great stress on the cultivation of character, purity of heart and conduct. He exhorted the people to develop a good character first, which is a priceless jewel and which is the best of all virtues.

The nature of man, according to Confucius, is fundamentally good inclined towards goodness. Perfection of goodness can be found in sages and saints. Every man should attempt to reach the ideal by leading a virtuous life, by possessing a very noble character, and by doing his duty unselfishly with sincerity and truthfulness. He who is endowed with a good character and divine virtue is a princely type of man. The princely man sticks to virtue, and the inferior man clings to material comfort. The princely man is just while the inferior man expects rewards and favours. The princely man is dignified, noble, magnanimous, and humble while the inferior man is mean, proud, crooked, and arrogant.

His teaching was largely concerned with the problems of good government. He said, "The Ruler himself should be virtuous, just, honest and dutiful. A virtuous ruler is like the Pole-star which, by keeping its place, makes all other stars to evolve round it. As is the Ruler, so will be the subjects."

Confucianism is lived in syncretism with any other religion in China... any Confucianist would be very happy to become a Christian!.

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