Top holdings of Berkshire Hathaway

 Here are my views on the top 5 stocks in the portfolio of Berkshire Hathaway (managed by Warren Buffet).

https://fisca.sg/ArticleDisplay.aspx?ID=1329

Inflation will remain high

 Many US banks, including the large ones, are in financial trouble. They have lent a few trillion dollars in 30 year mortgages at fixed interest rates of 3% or less. Based on the current high interest rates, the value of their mortgages could have fallen by 30% or more. The loss is staggering.

The banks are able to mark these mortgages as "held to maturity". They can spread out their losses over the next 30 years, but it will still be a painful loss.

If there is a large withdrawal of deposits, they have to sell off their mortgages at steep loss to pay the depositors. They have to recognize the losses immediately.

Not all banks are caught in this financial crisis. Some may be less exposed than others. However, if some of the more exposed banks fail, they will affect the other banks due to "contagion". The whole banking system could be in crisis.

To avoid the fall of the banking system, the US Fed will have to lower their interest rate and allow inflation to remain high. The high inflation will mean that the ordinary people will pay for the losses through higher cost of living.

This is not fair to the ordinary people, but it is likely to be the outcome. I cannot see anyway that it can be avoided as the alternative is a collapse of the banking system, which will be disastrous.

The banks in Singapore are less exposed to this financial crisis, compared to the US banks. The Singapore banks do not offer long term mortgages at fixed interest rate. Some may fix the interest rate for up to 3 years, but the interest rate will be adjustable, i.e. floating, after this initial period.

The floating rate mortgages protect the banks from the fall in the property values (due to high interest rate). However, it does not protect the owners, who have to bear the loss. The owners who cannot afford the higher interest rate have to give up their property at large losses. It will impact the economy and the property market badly as well.

If the US Fed lower the interest rate to protect the banking system, it is likely that other countries will follow. The global economy will have a long period of high inflation, but it is probably better than a collapse of the banking and financial system.

Disclaimer - this is a personal view. I may be wrong.

Tan Kin Lian

http://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=5711

WOTC - Electricity tariff

 Wisdom of the Crowd: 75% of respondents said that Singapore should follow Thailand's example and reduce electricity tariff due to the hot climate.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart3.aspx?id=2888

WOTC - Death sentence on drug trafficking

 Wisdom of the Crowd: 58% of respondents said that we should be flexible in dealing with the actual circumstances, especially when poor people are ticked to become traffickers.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart3.aspx?id=2887

Ride hailing operators

 Here are the financial results of 5 operators of ride hailing services.

https://fisca.sg/ArticleDisplay.aspx?ID=1328

EV and battery manufacturers in China

 Here are the financial figures for the electric vehicle and battery manufacturers in China.

https://fisca.sg/ArticleDisplay.aspx?ID=1327

Review of Tesla stock

 I have US $1,070,000 invested in 5,300 shares of Tesla. It is now showing a loss of 17%.

I expect the stock price to recover by the end of 2Q and to show a profit by the end of 2023.
https://fisca.sg/ArticleDisplay.aspx?ID=1326

WOTC - Increase in ABSD

 Wisdom of the Crowd: 64% of the respondents support the huge increase in ABSD to cool down the property market.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart3.aspx?id=2886

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. DPM's speech at May Day Rally, 2023
2. Will US banks collapse?
3. Will US interest rate remain high?
4. Will the property market in Singapore remain strong?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

WOTC - Peace in Ukraine

 Wisdom of the Crowd: 75% of respondents said that it would be difficult for China to help find peace in Ukraine.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart3.aspx?id=2885

WOTC - New citizens

 Wisdom of the Crowd: 62% of respondents said that new citizens should serve National Service like local citizens.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart3.aspx?id=2884

WOTC - Proficiency in English

Wisdom of the Crowd: 77% of respondents said that new citizens should be proficient in English to be able to integrate with the local population. 

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart3.aspx?id=2883

WOTC - Seats in bus

 Wisdom of the Crowd: 71% of respondents said that it is bad to have seats facing each other in a bus.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart3.aspx?id=2882

Twitter copies Tik Tok

 Twitter changed their screen recently. The "Home" screen now shows two tabs "For You" and "Following".

I think Twitter copied the successful screen of Tik Tok.

Instead of China copying America, now America copies China.

Hehehe.

Tan Kin Lian

Living in Forest City

 I share my experience of living in Forest City
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=5708

WOTC - 3,500 wealthy millionaires

 Wisdom of the Crowd: 64% of the respondents had a negative view towards the news report that 3,500 wealthy millionaires are expected to become citizens of Singapore in 2023. They said that it would increase the cost of living.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart3.aspx?id=2881

WOTC - Role of opposition in a democracy

 Wisdom of the Crowd: 79% of the respondents, in response to Lawrence Wong's remark that the government welcomes the role of the opposition in a democracy, said that Lawrence Wong talks only, but behaves differently.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart3.aspx?id=2880

Vote on these issues

 Vote on these issues in the Wisdom of the Crowd

https://tklcloud.com/crowd2/active_issue.aspx

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Will China be able to help find peace in Ukraine?
2. Increase in ABSD for purchase of private property
3. Mandatory life sentence for drug traffickers
4. Thailand reduced electricity rates due to the hot climate

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

WOTC - Change of prime minister

 Wisdom of the Crowd: 54% of the respondents said that things will get worse when there is a change of prime minister in Singapore.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart3.aspx?id=2879