Saturday, May 21, 2011

Why housing prices will fall


Lye Khuen Way said...

Well, let me state for "selfish" reasons, I wish the fall will come sooner than later.

Why ! I have only ONE HDB and no Private properties.
I worry for my children and their children.

Then there are others, for their equally "selfish" reasons who hope that property prices keep going up.

Let me be more specific. I have no quarrel if Private Properties go sky high.
My quarrel lies with "Public" housing - HDB flats.
Forget about Bigger Subsidies.
The logic is wrong to begin with.

Bring back the Rental Scheme of old by stages.
If possible . compensate the 1st Timers. ( Both Direct & Re-sale !)
Not easy to state a cut-off point and fix the value. Will not take 50 man years !

Yes, raid the reserves !
Blame it on the previous & the previous Governments. Actually, the actors are all the same !

There will be some, who had already called me "stupid" and I will admit I am. Too bad, I am not smart or rich enough to gain from others' losses.

I can walk tall, and say that I cared for my less well-off fellow Singaporeans.

Yes, restrict that "stupid" HDB rule/s that allow non-Singaporeans to buy HDB flats !( remember that 2 siblings below 35 years PRs ?)

Convert more 2/3/4/5 Rooms HDB to rental ! That will differentaiate , if necessary how much a Non-Singaporean pays.

william said...

There is very little the govt can really do now to control the housing market, because it cuts both way. It was a problem created by the policy makers in allowing prices to run away with a series of mistimed and mismanaged policy.

The floodgate was opened for PRs to buy HDB flats, and to allow HDB flats owner to buy private properties and rent out their HDB flats. HDB flat owners will have to sell their flats at higher price to pay for their new purchases, or to cover the outstanding mortgage + CPF + interest accrued. This caused prices in both HDB and private property market to rise sharply.

In the last 3 years at least 35% of the private non-landed properties are bought by HDB dwellers according to report, many of these bought new launches. The govt can't afford to let the market falls, at the best they can slow the growth. They cannot stop the HDB flat owners from buying private properties after the MUP because that will kill the private property market.

In the case of HDB flats, the best the govt can do is to build more to take some pressure off the resale market. Here again prices cannot fall as otherwise there will be a lot of negative assets and they will lose more votes in next election.

The only way for the property market to collapse is when there is another major external shocks. The lesson during the 1997 financial crisis and 911 seem to have been forgotten. But then again once must not forget the "Caspian" effect in Feb 2009 shortly after the Lehman crisis, when the HDB upgraders snapped up the project in no time.

Foreign buyers are not here in a big way yet, in any case those very high $PSF sales are small. They have their own set of problems back home and with the strong Sing$ and skyhigh price (= low rental yield) most would seek alternate investment. The market now is still very much driven by local and PRs.

Hence the property market now is in a cross road junction, there is nothing much can be done to control it from collapsing or running away.

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