Monday, September 10, 2018

Explain the odds

Many people do not understand the concept of odds.

They think that if they are lucky, they will strike the Big Sweep.

But the odds is 1 in 3 million. Three million tickets are sold and only 1 person will win the Grand Prize.

It is different when they take part in this Draw:

So far, less than 600 tickets have been sold. The odds of winning is 1 in 600.

Compared to the Big Sweep, there is 5,000 times better chance of winning the Mercedez Benz.

Sure, you have to pay $20 for a ticket compared to $3 for the big sweep. Still the odds are very much better for this Draw, compared to the Big Sweep, say 800 to 1.

If I ask you to beat head or tail on a twist of the coin and you win $800 when you are right and lose $1 when you are wrong, will you take this bet? This explains the odds of 800 to 1.

Of course, more tickets will be sold for this Draw when it closes on 2 November. Even if 5,000 tickets were sold, the odds are very much better for the Mercedes Benz draw. By that time, the odds will be to 80 to 1. It will still be better to participate in this draw rather than buy the Big Sweep.

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