Tan Kin Lian's Blog: Low birth rate and immigration

Monday, November 16, 2009

Low birth rate and immigration

I saw a news report that Japan, which is suffering from low birth rates and an aging population, is thinking about making changes to be more attractive to immigrants. This is similar to the situation and solution adopted in Singapore.

In my view, a better approach is to deal with the underlying causes for the low birth rates. Due to insecurity caused by globalization, many people are now spending more years to get a higher education, and are starting work later. They have to work long hours to establish a career. They dare not think about the commitment to raise a family.

The people from the less developed countries do not have this same type of worry. The cost of living is low. They are willing to raise more children and supply them as immigrants to the more developed countries.

Is this type of arrangement good for the world? I think that it is better for a country to grow its own local population rather than rely on immigrants.

6 comments:

wjsim said...: http://www.soshiok.com/articles/14620

Sometimes I admire immigrants. And remembered that we were once all immigrants.

Definitely it is better to rely on local population, but since we're all not willing to farm, low birth rates are inevitable. :( Just curious, are there any developed country with high birthrates or at least at replacement level 2.07?; November 16, 2009 8:54 AM
Anonymous said...: Less developed countries have more children not because the cost of living is low (it is high for them as they are poor - I'm sure its very hard to live on a $1 a day), but because of lack of access to pregnancy prevention methods and education on how to avoid pregnancy (and STDs).

The less developed countries aren't having children so they can ship them off to be immigrants in other countries, they are having them out of a lack of other opportunities. If you farm/fish/labour, children are your future labour source that you don't need to pay and they are also your retirement plan.

Yes, developed countries have less children b/c education of women and the growth of their careers pushes back when they have their first child. And biology may dictate how many they have (the later you start the less you are able to have). And yes, people work long hours to sustain a certain lifestyle, and frankly need both parents working to sustain it.

But I'd rather have an educated workforce having less children, than an uneducated work for subsiding on less than a dollar a day but having 9 children.

But France has mandated 35hour work week and their fertility is only 1.89 as is Norway's which has very generous maternity leave. Canada which has 1 year maternity leave has a fertility rate of 1.57. Singapore is 1.27. (Source UN Data).; November 16, 2009 9:11 AM
Anonymous said...: Good and bad.

Good for S'pore since S'pore is a "city" state made up of immigrants but only real FTs and foreign workers should be allowed to take up jobs that S'poreans cannot do or don't want to do. Those in between immigrants should not be allowed to flood the streets of S'pore and HDB flats in order to make up the "numbers" of 6.5m people.

Bad for Japan as Japan is not a country make up of immigrants.; November 16, 2009 10:31 AM
YZ said...: if i'm not wrong, the US has the highest fertility rate among developed countries, just above replacement level, around 2.12.

Found this statement: "the U.S. fertility rate increased by 22% between 1976 and 2007, while women's workforce participation rate increased by about 25% during the same period.". Wonder how things end up like this for them..

Can try google "fertility rate in US", there's a useful chart at google.com/publicdata on World Bank data.; November 16, 2009 2:09 PM
Anonymous said...: “First, we will improve support for child-rearing by offering cash allowances for families with children,” before thinking about immigration to address the country’s low birth rate.

- Japanese PM Hatoyama in an interview during APEC in SIngapore. He also describe it as a sensitive issue.

Are our leaders also thinking along the same lines? Or are they over liberal on this?

Personally I think relying on immigration is an easy way out or a "no brainer" solution and may pose serious problems in future.

Like the saying "Easy come, easy go".; November 16, 2009 2:16 PM
Unknown said...: You may be right about the US fertility rate. However, it may very soon fall out of the developed country list :); November 17, 2009 8:46 AM