Tan Kin Lian's Blog: Low birth rate

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Low birth rate

An edited version of this letter was published in Straits Times Online on 29 June 2010

A Straits Times editorial entitled "A case of try and try again" (28 June 2010) reported on the many failed attempts to arrest the declining birth rate in Singapore. The current average of 1.22 children per woman of child bearing age is far below the replacement level of 2.07, and must place our birth rate as among the lowest in the world.

This worrying fact was noted by the Government almost 25 years ago and several rounds of incentives have been introduced, with great publicity and fanfare, but all of them have failed miserably. We refused to recognise the real reasons for the failure and instead said that this is a trend faced by other countries. If this is the case, why should Singapore fare worst than others?

Singapore's low birth rate is the outcome of our social and economic policies of the past decades, which has resulted in high cost of living, low security of employment, low wages, wide disparity of income, high cost of housing, a stressed education system and so on.

The measures to increase the population through immigration will have their negative impacts. Worse, it will not solve the underlying problems, as the immigrants will face the same difficulties as the local born citizens, and they have more opportunity (and less deterrence) to move to other countries at a convenient time in the future.

I hope that we will be prepared to face reality, address the underlying issues, and be prepared to try new measures that were not tried before in Singapore (but have proven successful in other countries).

Tan Kin Lian

25 comments:

Anonymous said...: Respectfully and in all sincerity, Singapore does not have a low birth rate problem anymore.

This problem has been solved by a high immigration solution.

Just as Singapore no longer has a water supply contractual problem with Malaysia anymore.

This problem has been solved and replaced with the cost of building Newater and Desalination plants in Singapore.

So Singaporeans, please relax.

Enjoy your life and don't feel obliged you have to do your national duty by making more babies to feed our cheaper, better, faster economic machine.

The Singapore juggernaut will continue with or without you and your babies.

Don't worry. Be happy.; June 29, 2010 12:07 PM
Anonymous said...: It is not easy bring up children with so much competition. Why subject children to so much stress by bringing them to the world?

Is new zealand or switzerland experiencing high or increasing birth rate?

Fact is, even if conditions are ideal: low cost of living, high security of employment, high wages, low disparity of income, low cost of hosuing, stress-free education system, couples will still not want to have children.

Reason being, the premise of having children is different compare to the last generation. Using birth rate as a measurement is totally wrong to begin with. If you are using the wrong benchmark, of course, you will not see the results you want.; June 29, 2010 12:10 PM
Anonymous said...: According to APM, France has Europe's second-highest birth rate in part because of incentives offered by the government. Such incentives include:

A).Three-year paid parental leave with guaranteed job protection upon returning to the workforce;

B).Universal, full-time preschool starting at age three;

C).Subsidized daycare before age three;

D).Stipends for in-home nannies; and

E).Monthly childcare allowances that increase with the number of children per family.

The "STOP @ 2 POLICY" is the cause of today' DILEMA....no doubt about it!; June 29, 2010 1:05 PM
Anonymous said...: Not surprising about the low birth rate. When you have to worry about your job, your elderly parents'
high medical bills, your ever rising costs of living, stressful education system, low pay,etc., the last thing on your mind would be having children, even when married. All these bills involved in having kids and supporting parents scare the daylights out of us, as we need sufficient savings to support us in our old age, at the expense of having children.
Our Govt is barking up the wrong tree, so incentives to produce do not work, they know about it, but they are helpless.; June 29, 2010 1:38 PM
Tan Kin Lian said...: A director from the Ministry of Finance told me that the problem of low birth rate applies to all cities, such as Hong Kong, Tokyo and New York, and is not confined to Singapore.

These countries have a higher birth rate because of the rural sector where the people are more likely to have more children.

I do not have the figures of birth rates for cities, but it seems among countries, Singapore has one of the lowest birth rates.; June 29, 2010 1:55 PM
Tan Kin Lian said...: Reply to 12:10 PM

New Zealand and Switzerland have birth rates that are much higher than Singapore. See below.

Source: CIA World FactBook
Number of children per woman
Rank Country Children
121 New Zealand 2.09
189 Switzerland 1.46

218 Korea, South 1.22
219 Japan 1.20
220 Taiwan 1.15
221 Singapore 1.10
222 Hong Kong 1.04
223 Macau 0.91; June 29, 2010 2:04 PM
Anonymous said...: Just because we are comparable with HK, Taiwan and Japan (amongst the lowest in the world) it is not a problem and we are OK ? What logic is that ? Our minister pay is totally uncomparible with any countries in the world and out of this world. Should we do something about that then ?; June 29, 2010 2:17 PM
Its all about me. said...: You cannot have your cake and yet eat it.

We want good pay
We want good food
We want safe country
We want new cars
We want career advancement
We want recognition
We want good health
We want fast, efficient lifestyle
We want to party
We want fast internet

All these 10 'wants' are achievable and many have achieved it.
Babies?.. they do not fit it because

Its not cool
It takes too much time
Its ROI is ill defined
It makes my hips large
It cannot stay up late
Its not fast
Its smelly
Its costly
It requires constant monitoring
It fights back

Even if the incentive of free baby care is pronounced, there will not be any increase.. This era is all about self. Me,Me,and Me.

My twitter
My facebook
My car
My career
My wish
My selection
My choice
My money
My time
My apartment

Its all about me.. and baby challenges that.. its uncomfortable; June 29, 2010 2:26 PM
Anonymous said...: To be fair, many countries face low birth rates and the scientists have proved that it could be due to pollution in our food chain and the permanent damage to the human genes is deteriorating.

Many couples in singapore I know though strive for a better living and higher career improvement still wants to start their family. Though some failed but many are willing to go through both traditional and western sciences to have improve the physical health to be ready to conceive.

THe cost for all these procedures are v expensive and take a lot of courage to go through the tedious and painful process. And may not gurantee success.

If from a country's ecomomic point of view, it is necessary to have more foreigners to boost productivity, I as a women welcome the idea wholeheartedly than putting pain and pressure on couples to deliver the babies.; June 29, 2010 4:21 PM
Anonymous said...: Macau so low because the adults too busy gambling and now sg has two casinos so we may drop to 0.91!; June 29, 2010 4:26 PM
Anonymous said...: The article is very well written and reflect my sentiment. If we do not address this issue now, it will be too late when the so called New Citizens or new immigrants find greener pasture to move on in future. Are our Singapore leaders going to tell us "Singaporeans should learn from this experience" or "this should not happen but have happened, let's move on" thingy again?

In my opinion, the ministries know what is to be done to address the low birth rates but they refused to do so, as any measures to be effective will involve many ministries collective co-operation and even changing many national policies which the letter has accurately pointed out. It is too massive a task to undertake

Jerome; June 29, 2010 5:45 PM
Anonymous said...: To get an idea of how planning is carried out by leaders and policy makers, take a look at the PHOTOGRAPH on Straits Times, 29 June, page A4, bottom-half of page headlined "Warming of bilateral ties helped seal deal"

- See how leaders stand around a static model of the future

- the model is not yet real. It currently only exists in their minds

- observe the absence of ordinary people in the scale model.

- Observe the absence of ordinary people while the leaders stand around sharing their vision with each other.

- People are an after-thought. After all the concrete is built up, the leaders will then "mould" or "force fit" the ordinary people into the vision; June 29, 2010 6:45 PM
Anonymous said...: rex comments on Jerome's 5.45post

"too massive a task to undertake"?

I don't agree. Nothing is too massive if Old Man likes it. On other hand, the simplest task is the most massive task if Old Man doesnt like same.

This old man, he plays One, he plays knick Knack on your Life, with a knick knack paddy whack, give the Old Man the boot, this Old Man gone for good.

rex; June 29, 2010 7:34 PM
Anonymous said...: Why is a low birth rate a problem when you can import working adults in their prime?

You see, the trick is to see the problem as not being a problem. That will solve the problem more elegantly than any other solution.

Singaporeans have truly painted themselves into a corner due to their fear of change. The current political vacuum leads to the absence of choice, which leads to the state of bo-pian'ness.

If you find yourself in a unpleasant situation today, you can only have yourself to blame for what you did (not) do yesterday. What you can do now is learn from it, and not make the same mistake tomorrow.; June 29, 2010 8:04 PM
Anonymous said...: MR TAN
I always appreciate your candid view. Some of us may agree, and some disagree. Most importantly, alternative views make us think. This is really good.
Some of the Singaporeans still think Singapore is number 1 in many areas.
My pride for Singapore remains. My greater wish is to bring up a generation of Singaporeans with brains and hearts.

Cashew Nut; June 29, 2010 8:23 PM
Anonymous said...: To Rex

There is a saying, if the minister farts, the ministry earthquake. Of course if the Old Man gives the nod, nothing is too massive. But having done the sums up, would they want to increase birth rate? Consider the amount of rebate, subsidy and other perks the government has to give out from the moment a Singaporean is born as compared to parachuting the New Citizen in to top up the numbers. It only makes business sense to encourge importing New Citizens

Hey at least in other countries such as New Zealand as i was told, New Citizen must fork out NZS$2m as fixed deposit to the NZ govt in order to be attain citizenship. i am appaled that the Singapore government misses that out!

Jerome; June 30, 2010 5:14 AM
Anonymous said...: Here's the Singapore Dream: make enough money to one day migrate to another country.

Kids? Why bring them to this world to suffer, especially more so if you are in Singapore.

For those that are wealthy enough, overseas education and migrating is always an attractive and available option to them.

As for the rest of us, we suffer in silence.

Kids? You got to be kidding!; June 30, 2010 8:01 AM
Anonymous said...: REX comments as follows,

re Jerome@5.14 am

Let's go back to basics - this issue of birth rate and replacement level for the population. The traditional concept is that if there are too many old people the goverhment will be heavily burdened. But if you think about it, this is not true in Singapore. Here in Singapore, you die your business, your CPF gets frozen despite the original promise that you can withdraw at 55. At most you tear down a luxurious condo or golf course and build a hospital for old people. what's wrong?

If the government already disowns responsibilities, if the governemtn already stop you from taking out your own money at old age, if the governtment already expect you to take care of yourself, WHERE IS BURDEN ON THE GOVT even if our birth rate drops to 1.0? Think about that.

So at the bottom line, why do we need to ever bother to tweak the population numbers, either birth rate or mass imports?

Unfortunately this unjustifiable paranoia to increase the population has created the very same social pressures NOW which we imagine will happen many many many years later with this supposedly low birth rate.

The only good thing coming out of the "parachuting" as you put it, is that many of the FT's do actually improve our cultures. Unlike other normal countries, foreigners will dilute the rich original cultures, Singapore is unique in the sense that foreigenrs will purify our rather contaminated cultures mainly chinese. Speak mandarin, don't sound like mandarin, no knoweldedge of chinese history, speak English don;t sound like ang mo... we have no soul. We need the high quality type PRC's to purify our bankrupt speaking habits. This is fact.

rex; June 30, 2010 8:03 AM
Anonymous said...: Ref. Jerome:
"Hey at least in other countries such as New Zealand as i was told, New Citizen must fork out NZS$2m as fixed deposit to the NZ govt in order to be attain citizenship. i am appaled that the Singapore government misses that out!"

- S'pore citizenship not worth $2 million lah

- you are lucky new citizens like Gong Li don't ask S'pore to pay them $2 million to become citizens. Wonder if she is going to hang on to her S'pore citizenship? Straits Times, 30 June, page C10.

Here are some examples of the real Singaporean spirit;

"Flying high on hard work, camaraderie", Straits Times, page B2

"Flying (or flooding for that matter - writer's comment) is very unforgiving ... you cannot lower standards"

"Whether it's buying drinks for everyone on a hot day or inviting them to dinner at my place, it's these little things that ensure no one is left out and everyone remains committed to their mission"

Commanding Officer Kwan Kum Wah of the 140 fighter squadron

- Anything about cheaper, better, faster in those words?

- More inspiring towards nation building than our national pledge is just an "aspiration" right?

- In times of war, I sure am glad Officer Kwan's men will be protecting my back with real bullets. Hollywood bullets ain't going to save my family.; June 30, 2010 8:05 AM
Anonymous said...: To 8:01am

I belong in the 30s category and among discussions with peers, migration is not an option/dream for us. We had our chance either working and studying overseas and it is not always a fairy tale story. It is very carefree though as it is almost like exploring a new country but working hard at the same time to achieve academic or career advancement. BTW, most of us do not have sliver spoons or scholarships. We start from the polys.

To share better perspective of what some people our age group are thinking, our ideal retirement environment is: Retire in Singapore (that's where our dearest family, siblings, friends are), Vacation a couple times a year (short/long trips are fine), reliable healthcare, continuous hardworking workforce for stability and progressing environment.

Looking at the current lives of relatives or friends in their 50s and 60s is always a good reminder how you want to live ours now. Babies or no babies though pushed by the government a lot, is still a personal choice. Children do not need so much money (compromise on delaying buying a car lah); they thrive on love by the parents.; June 30, 2010 9:53 AM
Anonymous said...: Personally i do not aspire or dream about migration to other countries where i will be treated as 2nd class citizens and to leave behind my parents and friends here. Migration is not my dream

Notwithstanding the disagreement on the govt policies, i think there is no need to be too negative. We bring the children into this world and educate and raise them as best as we could. How they make out of their lives is their path and destiny in future. As parents, there is only so much we can do or plan for the kids, the rest is up to them

To Rex, i think the govt needs more "citizens" so as to increase tax revenue. If they can top up with new birth rates, parachute FT loh. It is faster and much cheaper, isn't it?

I agree that S'pore is quite unique as when the citizens grow old or gets sick, the govt doesn't seem to do much to help. Hang on hang on, i seem to hear echos already that the govt cannot sploit the S'poreans and must watch the coffers carefully, and if the ngovt must share these costs to take care of the aged and the sick, "Singaporeans must be prepared to pay more" stuff like that. I think if one just memorised these usual taglines, anyone can be minister!

Consider the donations, it is always openly asking for public donations. But how much did the govt donote really? And SIngaporeans just happily donote only to be found later that the funds are misused. When is Singaporean going to "learn from these experience"

Jerome; June 30, 2010 12:22 PM
Anonymous said...: Do you feel like a "first class" citizen here in Singapore just because you are born and raise here?

What "first class' treatment do you recieve here that makes you feel better treated than those foreigners who migrated here?

They come here to compete for our jobs, compete with our children for schools, compete in bidding up our flats and private apartments, compete for space in the MRT....etc etc

And what does our govt say to you? Embrace them!

And you know what, they have children here but they have their children hold passport of their native country. They pack up when things dont work out for them. They have an option. They dont want their kids to have to serve NS. They can always come back as an expat anytime.

Yes, the media occassionally featured 3rd generation PRs who go through the grind and serve NS like anyone of us. Thats just to appease the unhappiness on the ground, that's all.

If I have the resources, I will pack up and bring my children and family away.

The young man that migrated to Canada when he was in primary school and won dont know what award, our media proudly featured him a "Singaporean". No shame at all! What has Singapore done to nuture this boy or help his mother? NOTHING!
His mother did the right thing to leave. Had he remain in Singapore, this acheivement may not have been possible.

"First class citizen"? Yes, only you can afford to fly first class on your family vacation, than you are first class citizen.

The rest of us are just "cattle class".; June 30, 2010 8:21 PM
yeokh said...: For an insightful analysis about our babies problem, see http://yawningbread.wordpress.com/2010/06/27/demography-not-immigration-part/ as well as
http://yawningbread.wordpress.com/2010/06/30/demography-not-immigration-part-2/ .

I think both Mr Tan Kin Lian and Mr Alex Au would make good political candidates -- either as independents or as members of the opposition.

Let's just hope they don't join the PAP!; June 30, 2010 8:44 PM
Anonymous said...: I spent a few days in Bintan few years back.
The people in Bintan live like Singaporeans in the 50s and before. Other than the simple and basic lifestyles, one aspect reminded me of the earlier days, there were many babies in the sparsely populated Island. It was very similar to Singapore before the 70s when most families had five to a dozen broods.

There is hardly any highrise livings in Bintan and most kids played just liked what most kids in Sg did before the seventies. Most parents need not have to care for their children like precious diamonds that cannot be out of sight. There was never the needs to constantly tend to the children.

All the Bintan children needed were something to fill their stomachs, the open spaces to play and a place to sleep. Both their parents and the kids were pretty carefree. Though I have not been there since than, I believe livings there should remain the same.

Kids must not cause their parents too much money, time and worry. Children must be entitled to their carefree and childish plays. In Sg, these two conditions are not present anymore dure to urbanization and incessant quests for modernization. Such is the situation and I think it is wise not burden oneself with child bearings and also depriving children of their nature of innocence and playfulness.

And not to make ones' offsprings to suffer in a dog eat dog world, do not produce them unless one is willing or is sure of giving them a happy existence.; July 01, 2010 12:07 AM
singapore man said...: No one bothered to mention the poor work life in Singapore, even if you have a child, you will hardly see them because your boss expect you to OT without fail; July 02, 2010 5:40 PM

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Low birth rate

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