Tuesday, August 18, 2015

Will PAP lose the general election?

How well will the PAP fare in the forthcoming general election? Will they do better and get more than the 60.1% that they received in 2011? Will they suffer a swing of more than 10% as shown in the Punggol East by-election? Will the final outcome be somewhere in between?

Let me first list the factors in favor of the PAP

1. The poor management by the the opposition Workers' Party in running the Aljunied Town Council
2. The pride felt by Singaporeans in the 2015 South East Asian Games and the SG50 celebrations
3. The financial benefits given to the elderly under the Pioneer Generation Package
4. The fragmented alternative parties
5. The fear of toppling down the PAP government leading to instability

Here are the factors against the PAP

6. The difficulty faced by the middle aged PMETs and the young graduates in competing with foreigners for jobs
7. The daily overcrowding and frequent breakdown of the MRT trains
8. The constant criticism of the PAP in the social media on lack of transparency, arrogance and incompetence.
9. The high cost of living and cost of housing
10. The desire for more "opposition voices" in Parliament.

How do these two sets of factors balance out?

They do not look good for the PAP. The voters of Hougang and Potong Pasir have shown over the past two decades  that they are willing and able to take the unfair treatment in the upgrading of their estates. The voters of Aljunied are likely to ignore the alleged mismanagement of the town council, especially as the incumbent MPs had put much effort to build their personal relations with the residents.

The pride and celebration of the SEA Games and SG50 appear to be short lived.

Lets look at negative side for the PAP. The frustration of finding a job, over crowded trains and buses and the high cost of living is a daily reminder to the voters of the poor quality of life.

Even the possibility of voting the PAP out of power is no longer a fear factor. If the PAP does not have a majority in Parliament, they are likely to be the party with most seats and  lead the coalition government. Some of the ministers have shown that they are not competent.  It would be nice to have some ministers not in white.

The wisdom of the crowd, as reflecting in the "Guess the PAP share of votes" contest in my webstie suggests that the PAP will get 55% of the popular vote - a swing of 5%. I believe that the swing will be higher, maybe 7%. We may be looking at 15 to 20 seats for the alternative parties in the next Parliament.

May I say, "I may be wrong".

My friend, who worked in a government agency and is generally pro-PAP said, "I live in East Coast. I will vote opposition as I fear for the future of my children if the PAP continues with their current policies". Will this be the view of many people?



9 comments:

Gong Chan said...

Voting for the PAP is tantamount to voting for Singaporeans to become a minority here in our own homeland. With the demise of LKY, even Ministers loyal to him had chosen the easy way out by tendering in their resignation. Singapore is now at a cross road. It is either true blue Singaporeans save themselves now in the coming GE by voting out the Incumbent or forever lose that chance as the status quo is tilted with another mass influx of foreigners from 3rd world nations being dished out Singapore citizenships, thus making local borned Singaporeans being made into a minority, a sad reality.

Anonymous said...

Good analysis, Mr Tan. Another issues you have not mentioned is CPF and the minimum sum which upset many citizens for years. This could also be a factor affecting higher swing of vote.

If it is bad management of Aljunied TC, how about money disappeared from Mini Bond investment without debate like the former case? Which is worse in terms of competence and transparency for average citizen? Politicians are supposed to take care of voters in a board range of issue in living in this country, property management is not their expertise. The whole issue has just been politicised.

We want a government to tell us truth but not window dressing till there is little difference from telling lies. How many reasonably educated citizen still believe in the figures and reasoning given by the higher ups? I like what your description that many ministers are barking. It's just full of nonsense and how can we trust them without more check and balance (by electing more capable oppositions) next to these overpaid civil servants?

yujuan said...

PAP vote of the share would be around 55%.
The new crop of PAP newbies do not impress, we dun like the helicopter style of shooting up unknown faces to steal into Parliament through the backdoor. What kind of gutter politics this project.
Anyway it suits PM Lee well, surrounded by mediocre and yes men, he could project himself outstanding, calling the shots, having easy scapegoats as his spokesmen to cover up his shortcomings.
Hope that SDP and SingFirst would get some members in. We need more active Opposition members on Parliament, to relieve WP of being hounded and bullied.

Anonymous said...

mr tan,

it seems to me that the global economy is still in a mess and our situation is very bad. it seems to me that our leaders did not have any proposal to tackle the problems.

Anonymous said...

No PAP will lose, if they were to win by margins less than last time despite so much fanfare, they are destine to lose

Anonymous said...

IT IS.

Anonymous said...

Vote PAP out? and vote in the bunch of circus clowns and form a coalition govt? Dismantle the CPF and disburse to all citizens their money and close up the accounts. This will be great because they are great money managers. There will be celebration bashes every day and night, maybe better than the Greeks. Freedom!!!!to do whatever you like with your money.
Good luck , Singapore.

Anonymous said...

I estimate a swing of only 3%. Don't underestimate the daftness of many Singaporeans.

YD said...

Kin Lian,

I see the new crop if PAP candidates as a group of yes men trying to please everyone.

To be a good leader, you must have the guts to stand up and be your own men.

I don't see a Tharman or Shamu amongst them.

i fear for the PAP.

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