Let me first list the factors in favor of the PAP
1. The poor management by the the opposition Workers' Party in running the Aljunied Town Council
2. The pride felt by Singaporeans in the 2015 South East Asian Games and the SG50 celebrations
3. The financial benefits given to the elderly under the Pioneer Generation Package
4. The fragmented alternative parties
5. The fear of toppling down the PAP government leading to instability
Here are the factors against the PAP
6. The difficulty faced by the middle aged PMETs and the young graduates in competing with foreigners for jobs
7. The daily overcrowding and frequent breakdown of the MRT trains
8. The constant criticism of the PAP in the social media on lack of transparency, arrogance and incompetence.
9. The high cost of living and cost of housing
10. The desire for more "opposition voices" in Parliament.
How do these two sets of factors balance out?
They do not look good for the PAP. The voters of Hougang and Potong Pasir have shown over the past two decades that they are willing and able to take the unfair treatment in the upgrading of their estates. The voters of Aljunied are likely to ignore the alleged mismanagement of the town council, especially as the incumbent MPs had put much effort to build their personal relations with the residents.
The pride and celebration of the SEA Games and SG50 appear to be short lived.
Lets look at negative side for the PAP. The frustration of finding a job, over crowded trains and buses and the high cost of living is a daily reminder to the voters of the poor quality of life.
Even the possibility of voting the PAP out of power is no longer a fear factor. If the PAP does not have a majority in Parliament, they are likely to be the party with most seats and lead the coalition government. Some of the ministers have shown that they are not competent. It would be nice to have some ministers not in white.
The wisdom of the crowd, as reflecting in the "Guess the PAP share of votes" contest in my webstie suggests that the PAP will get 55% of the popular vote - a swing of 5%. I believe that the swing will be higher, maybe 7%. We may be looking at 15 to 20 seats for the alternative parties in the next Parliament.
May I say, "I may be wrong".
My friend, who worked in a government agency and is generally pro-PAP said, "I live in East Coast. I will vote opposition as I fear for the future of my children if the PAP continues with their current policies". Will this be the view of many people?