At the 2011 general election, the PAP team, lead by GCT, won Marine Parade with 56.64% of the votes against the team from the National Solidarity Party. The NSP team had the popular Nicole Seah while the PAP team had the unpopular Tin Pei Ling.
At the next general election, the PAP will face the WP which has a stronger branding and more popular appeal compared to the NSP. The WP will likely do better than the NSP did in 2011. Both Nicole Seah and Tin Pei Ling will not be involved in Marine Parade in this round.
Will the WP be able to get a 6.7% swing to win Marine Parade from the PAP? It depends on the strength of the WP team. The leader Low Thia Khiang has already said that he will stay back to defend Aljunied GRC.
If the WP do not send a strong team to Marine Parade, they are not likely to achieve the swing of 6.7%. They will have a chance if Sylvia Lim or Chen Show Mao lead the WP team together with Yee Jenn Jong. Will the WP take this risk?
I have a sentimental attachment to Marine Parade because I helped GCT to win his first election in that constituency and served as his PAP branch secretary for 3 years. That was history. I left Marine Parade in 1985 but continued to be involved in a small way for the next ten years. I had ceased all involvement since 1995.
Let me make this prediction of what may happen to Marine Parade.
In 2011, Mr. Lee Kuan Yew suffered the personal humiliation of seeing the PAP lose Aljunied to the WP. There is a strong chance that GCT may suffer the same humiliation in Marine Parade in 2015/ 16.
It is ironic that the fate of Marine Parade will not depend on the PAP but, instead, will depend on how the WP will act. And my guess is that the WP will take the risk and send Sylvia Lim or Chen Show Mao to Marine Parade.
All the best to the WP and to the PAP. May be better party win.
After-thought: One frightening scenario for the PAP is when Nicole Seah join the WP slate for Marine Parade.