Sunday, July 05, 2020

Quora: Why did Navarro say that the trade deal with China is "over"?

Charles Lee replied:
Actually, when Navarro said that the trade deal with China is “over”, this is what he meant:
  1. The United States had imposed 25% tariffs on Chinese goods, it did not impact Chinese exports at all as Chinese goods was re-routed to other countries for re-shipment to the United States and the extra-cost is borne by Americans;
  2. When United States imposed tariffs, the Chinese stopped buying many American products, especially farm products leading many American farmers to go bankrupt or lose their long established market permanently and never going to replace it;
  3. When the United States banned American companies from selling high tech products to the Chinese companies, the Chinese bought from European, Japanese, and Korean companies AND also manufactured those products themselves. Many American semi-conductor companies will go bankrupt as a result;
  4. Whereas Alphabet (Google) used to dominate the mobile operating system as a result of Trump’s ban, the Chinese, Russians, and (even) the Europeans are now in the process of introducing their own operating system.
The trade deal is “over” because Trump had lost. There is talk of de-coupling. There will NOT be one unless the United States wishes to go the North Korean way. The American economic base is too small for it to succeed in de-coupling. No other country will join it.
So the trade deal, no matter how Trump or Navarro spins it, is “OVER”. Trump had lost and, in fact, never had a chance in the first place: they never had a chance against the depth and scale of China’s industrial base, the size of it internal market, and its Belt and Road infrastructure….
So what can Trump do next? Increased tariffs…it will make no difference to Chinese exports BUT they will stopped buying what little they currently purchase from the United States. There are no good options left for Trump. The only possibility left is to further weaponized the US dollar……but he will also destroy the American economy at the same time. BUT, as everyone knows, he is impulsive. AND, from all accounts the Chinese is already even prepared for this worst case scenario and have already begun preparing their people for this possibility…..no doubt coordinated with the Europeans.
The Chinese always knew that they will win because they had carefully gamed it out from Day 1 and they were supported by the Europeans who knew they will be the next target - Trump never had a chance in this trade war for he had waged war with the world AND that the world is far bigger and GREATer than the United States.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Kept mistaken which is Edwin Tong or Desmond Lee.

Anonymous said...

Before GST was implemented in 1994, how did the country survived?

Anonymous said...

YIO CHU KANG bald head uncle thank you for speaking up for people who can identify with family members publicly airing dirty laundry and instigate broken families. You are a hero.

Anonymous said...

A variable of good mix in a political party;

70 ~ 90 years old - wisdom.

40 ~ 70 years old - experience

25 ~ 40 years old - innovative, articulates long term vision.

Anonymous said...

Please have ambulances and doctors on standby in eventualities of fainting spells when results are announced. People have been unhappy on their policies for a long time. They make policies based on factors rather than logic.

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Anonymous said...

This is just a political view and incorrect. The US income from tariff's increased by 40% in mid 2019. Probably even higher now. Does not matter if china or consumer paid for that. With the increase in revenue, Trump can use that to offset the business that China is not buying from and build manufacturing base in US which they lost. A country that size needs some manufacturing and cannot be fully dependent on others. How is that not a win for US?

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