2. Is 61% vote share a clear mandate for the PAP?
Wisdom of the Crowd: 64% of the respondents said that it is not safe to invest in the stock market now. 36% say that it is safe.
Saturday, July 18, 2020
Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues
2. Is 61% vote share a clear mandate for the PAP?
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Scenario planning for a pandemic
I read about this from an online source, but I was not able to verify it.
A few years ago, the government organized a scenario planning exercise to deal with the pandemic. The outcome was a framework to deal with the crisis. It created the concept of DORSCON orange and DORSCON red.
DORSCON is the acronym for Disease Outbreak Response System Control.
It sounded impressive. After all, the planners needed to justify the large sums, perhaps several millions dollars, spent on the scenario planning exercise. The consultant fees must be hefty.
What happened to this exercise. Here is my speculation.
Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues
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https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx
WOTC - 100,000 new jobs
Wisdom of the Crowd: 49% of the respondents expect the 100,000 new jobs to be taken by foreigners. 43% expect that these jobs will not be created. Only 8% expect the jobs to be taken by locals.
WOTC - Relaxation of circuit breaker
Wisdom of the Crowd: 60% of the respondents expect the coronavirus infection to be less serious during the second phase of the relaxation of circuit breaker. 40% expect the circuit breaker to be reintroduced.
Thursday, July 16, 2020
Time to get rid of GRCs
It is an anomaly. Life can produce unexpected and spectacular results.
The PAP created the GRC system to preserve their hold on power. They think that they will win all the GRCs with strong ministers and allow the opposition parties to win a few SMCs.
But GE2020 produced an unexpected result.
9 seats were lost to the opposition in 2 GRCs. Only 1 seat was lost in a SMC, and that is in a SMC that has been held by the opposition for more than two decades.
All the PAP candidates, including the new candidates, won the other SMCs.
Maybe, the PAP will find a reason to scrap the GRC now and return to SMCs.
I hope that they get the message from GE2020 that the voters are tired of their gerrymandering.
The PAP should just be honest and respect the true wishes of the voters.
Wednesday, July 15, 2020
Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues
1. Who will be the next transport minister?
2. When will Heng Swee Keat become prime minister?
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https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx
Wisdom of the Crowd
Vote on these issues and win a prize.
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/active_issue.aspx
WOTC - Public view of PAP
Wisdom of the Crowd: 93% of the respondents have a negative view of the PAP - take care of its cronies and is wasteful and inefficient. 7% have a positive view.
Tuesday, July 14, 2020
A better way to distribute free mask
This is the vending machine used to distribute the free masks donated by Temasek Holdings.
It is complicated. I got lost trying to get my free masks.
Finally, I ended up with no free masks. Someone collected my quota using my NRIC.
Is there a better design for the vending machine to distribute the masks?
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=3252
Collecting the free masks from Temasek Holdings
I share my experience in collecting the free masks donated by Temasek Holdings.
There are many issues that troubled me deeply about this matter. It shows how bad things are in Singapore.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=3251
Safe Entry at MRT stations and bus interchanges
I took the MRT train. I heard an announcement to remind passengers to carry out their Safe Entry at the MRT station. I did not.
When I entered the MRT station, there was no prominent sign to record the Safe Entry. There was no personnel to enforce this regulation. So, I missed it.
I suppose that most commuters, like me, would not record their Safe Entry.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=3250
Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues
2. Will many people migrate out of Hong Kong due to the National Security law?
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https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx
Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues
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https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx
WOTC - $33 billion spent on circuit breaker (4th phase)
Wisdom of the Crowd: 58% of the respondents preferred the $33 billion (used to extend the circuit breaker) be used instead to suspend GST for 3 years. 38% prefer to use the money to pay a pension to everybody above 80 years.
WOTC - Small business and self employed
Wisdom of the Crowd: 77% of the respondents said that small businesses and self employed will not vote for PAP in the general election.
Monday, July 13, 2020
Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues
1. Minister Shanmugam said that PAP need to do some soul searching
2. What were the key factors that led to lower votes for PAP?
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https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx
WOTC - Means testing
Wisdom of the Crowd: 87% of the respondents do not like means testing as the way to access public benefits.
WOTC - Vote for PAP
Wisdom of the Crowd: 87% of the respondents said that they will not vote for the PAP in the general election for two reasons.
Sunday, July 12, 2020
WOTC - How to unite the people
Wisdom of the Crowd: The respondents of this survey tell the government how to make the people more united - allow more diverse views in Parliament, provide more transparency and remove oppressive measures. The government is trying to unite the people by adopting other measures.
WOTC - Government schemes should be made simpler and fairer
Wisdom of the Crowd: 96% of the respondents do not like the way that the government designs schemes that are complicated and troublesome and treat different groups of people differently. They prefer to have simpler schemes that are standard.
Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues
1. Who is the real winner of GE2020?
2. Why did PAP lose Sengkang GRC?3. Did the PAP get a strong mandate?
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https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx
Saturday, July 11, 2020
Get rid of political parties
I wrote this article to suggest a way to replace the election of political leaders using political parities and replace it by the election of community leaders on personal merit.
I received 4 votes agreeing to the suggestion and 3 votes disagreeing with it.
I was surprised to see a high proportion of disagreement. I had expected to see more people supporting the new approach, as it addresses the "political corruption" that is prevalent in many countries.
I guess that the people who disagree have a vested interest, as they are connected to the political parties.
Why are there so few people who agree with it. I guess most people are apathetic or negative and will not support an suggestion unless they have a personal stake.
I hope that more people will come forward and support an idea, even if they do not have a personal stake. We need more positive forces to effect change and deal with the bad practices in our society.
Read this article again and give your vote.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=3239
Get rid of political parties
I wish to discuss a system of electing community leaders and law makers that is not based on political parties.
My idea is set out here. I hope that you like it.
TKL's view about GE2020
Here are my views about GE2020.
The future for Singapore is bleak. The PAP is not able to rally the people to meet the challenges of the future. The other parties cannot do much either.
Do you agree?
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=3238
WOTC - Call a general election during the pandemic
Wisdom of the Crowd: 96% of the respondents disagreed with the decision of the ruling party to call a general election during the pandemic.
WOTC - relaxtion of safe distancing on public transport
Wisdom of the Crowd: 79% of the respondents disagreed with the relaxation of the safe distancing measure on public transport.
Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues
1. Your reaction to the performance of People Action Party
2. Your reaction to the performance of the Worker Party
3. Your reaction to the performance of the Progress Singapore Party
4. Your reaction to the performance of the Singapore Democratic Party
5. Your reaction to the performance of the People Voice Party.
Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx
Friday, July 10, 2020
Take a positive approach
It is a common habit for people to take a negative approach towards any issue. This is reflected by:
a) Look for what is wrong
b) Imagine what could go wrong, even if the likelihood is remote
c) Create unnecessary fear.
It is possible to take a positive approach. This is reflected by
a) Look for what is right
b) See how the change can improve on the current situation
c) Create optimism towards the change.
There is a pervasive feeling that one has to be confident that the change will work, before they can express support for the change. I disagree with this approach.
I prefer to express support and confidence about the change, even though it may not be the perfect solution or may not be ready at this time.
Change does take time. We still have to overcome many obstacles ahead.
If the change does appear to be better than the current situation, we should express tentative support for the change, and work to sort out the obstacles.
This is how a positive approach can make things happen, and happen quite quickly.
Online voting system for general election - can detect fraud
My online voting system for a general election has been designed to prevent fraud and yet make it easy for the voters to use.
The trademark secrets are:
a) Use SMS (not email) to send the unique voting ballot to each voter and authenticate it by a PIN.
b) Allow non-savvy voters to vote at the polling station using a device provided by the official.
c) Use three databases to verify the election results - to identify fraud at any database.
See the whole system here:
https://s3.tklcloud.com/…/200709182824580_Online%20voting%2…
Note - please do not give any comments until you have read the whole paper (which is quite short) and understand how it works.
Ensure security of data against fraud
Many computer systems are subject to fraud and errors. The fraud can be committed by internal staff or external hackers.
40 years ago, I introduced a system to prevent the fraud and errors in the computer operations of a large insurance company. It worked. It identified a major error that was hidden. It allowed the bug to be identified and fixed. It prevented the occurrence of similar errors.
Every night, we were assured that the database is intact against deliberate fraud by internal staff or external hackers.
How was this achieved?
I introduced a system of independent audit of the entire database and transactions at the end of the day. A separate audit program, under the control of a separate team of staff, monitor all the transactions and ensure that the control totals are intact.
If there was any mistake in the software code or any fraudulent attempt to change any data, the audit program was able to identify the differences and alert the internal audit team to investigate the source of the error.
It is a simple, yet foolproof approach. I do not need to check the million lines of codes thoroughly, as any wrong code will throw out an error in the audit protocol.
While many people are scared of computer systems and platforms being hacked, I know how to detect the fraudulent activities.
Thursday, July 09, 2020
Police failed to respond properly to this citizen call for help
I received a call from Mr L, who had called the Police for assistance from being harassed by his daughter. A policeman came to his home, but did not render the assistance that he needed. Mr. L. later learned that the Police had barred his telephone number from calling for further assistance. He called me for help.
Subsequently, I received this report from Mr. L.
It appears from this report that the standard of our Police Force is deplorable. I hope that they will respond to my post.
Online Voting Platform
I am building this platform for an online voting system.
I hope that Singapore will adopt this system and be the first in the world to introduce an online voting platform.
This platform is developed to achieve the following goals
- Ensure that the voting is secure and free from hacking and fraud
- Makes it convenient for the voter to submit their vote for electing their representatives for one or more offices
- Able to cater to voters who are not able to handle technology
More details can be found here:
https://s3.tklcloud.com/…/200709182824580_Online%20voting%2…
Tan Kin Lian
Difficult of using the existing website of government agencies
I send this email to a friend to explain the difficulty of using the website of government agencies.
He replied - if someone like you, who is IT savvy, finds it difficult, how about the general public who is not IT-savvy?
He was most interested in the two videos of my journey through the government websites.
Sunday, July 05, 2020
Quora: Why did Navarro say that the trade deal with China is "over"?
Charles Lee replied:
Actually, when Navarro said that the trade deal with China is “over”, this is what he meant:
- The United States had imposed 25% tariffs on Chinese goods, it did not impact Chinese exports at all as Chinese goods was re-routed to other countries for re-shipment to the United States and the extra-cost is borne by Americans;
- When United States imposed tariffs, the Chinese stopped buying many American products, especially farm products leading many American farmers to go bankrupt or lose their long established market permanently and never going to replace it;
- When the United States banned American companies from selling high tech products to the Chinese companies, the Chinese bought from European, Japanese, and Korean companies AND also manufactured those products themselves. Many American semi-conductor companies will go bankrupt as a result;
- Whereas Alphabet (Google) used to dominate the mobile operating system as a result of Trump’s ban, the Chinese, Russians, and (even) the Europeans are now in the process of introducing their own operating system.
The trade deal is “over” because Trump had lost. There is talk of de-coupling. There will NOT be one unless the United States wishes to go the North Korean way. The American economic base is too small for it to succeed in de-coupling. No other country will join it.
So the trade deal, no matter how Trump or Navarro spins it, is “OVER”. Trump had lost and, in fact, never had a chance in the first place: they never had a chance against the depth and scale of China’s industrial base, the size of it internal market, and its Belt and Road infrastructure….
So what can Trump do next? Increased tariffs…it will make no difference to Chinese exports BUT they will stopped buying what little they currently purchase from the United States. There are no good options left for Trump. The only possibility left is to further weaponized the US dollar……but he will also destroy the American economy at the same time. BUT, as everyone knows, he is impulsive. AND, from all accounts the Chinese is already even prepared for this worst case scenario and have already begun preparing their people for this possibility…..no doubt coordinated with the Europeans.
The Chinese always knew that they will win because they had carefully gamed it out from Day 1 and they were supported by the Europeans who knew they will be the next target - Trump never had a chance in this trade war for he had waged war with the world AND that the world is far bigger and GREATer than the United States.
Starhub bonds and shares
My friend invested in Starhub bonds. He asked if if the bonds are safe. (He had invested in Hyflux preference shares and lost nearly all of his invested sum).
I look at the financials in Yahoo Finance.
Here is my analysis of the bonds and the shares.
Some foreigners had a hard time in Singapore
Mr. H was in his fifties. He sold his house in Germany and migrated to Singapore under the investor scheme. He was given a 5 year residence, subject to renewal.
He bought a property and started a business. The business was not successful.
On expiry, the residency was not renewed. He had to leave Singapore.
He tried to sell his residential property, but the market is bad. He had to suffer a capital loss. He rented out the property and obtained a miserable return.
He invested in the Hyflux preference shares. He thought that it was safe, as it was approved for sale to retail investors and could be bought from the bank's ATM machine.
His investment in the preferential shares is almost gone.
He still holds some bonds from StarHub. He asked me if this bond is as risky as Hyflux. I told him that I would study the financials and give him my views.
Shhh, I did not tell him that I would consulting my crystal ball.
Mr. H is one of the foreigners who did not do well by migrating to Singapore. He would have been better off if he had migrated to some other country.
I like to share this sad story with my sinkie friends. We should not be xenophobia towards foreigners. Some of them also had a bad time.
I met Mr. H when he consulted me about the Hyflux preference shares. We became good friends.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=3217
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