Monday, May 05, 2008

Is there room for welfare in Singapore?

Comment posted in my blog (edited)

I talked to a Taiwanese friend who works for a Taiwan multi-national company. I commented about the government policy that allowed too many foreign workers aimed at the cost-competitiveness of the country. This has indirectly resulted in older workers not being able to find jobs or have to compete with low-paying foreign workers who feed a family in his home country of lower standard of living. I opined that maybe the government policy should be tightened.

She was surprised to hear my views, and offered another perspective. The use of foreign workers is unavoidable, and is part of globalisation. It is happening in many countries, e.g. Australia, Taiwan, Malaysia and Europe. Even at the specialist level, the substitution of local labour with cheaper foreign labour is unavoidable.

The key is whether the government have instituted enough social welfare policies to help the population in times of needs and defray their cost as much as possible. For example, the Taiwanese government has a very comprehensive medical care program for all her citizens. The cost of medical is low as it is subsidised heavily. She finds Singapore's medical expenses ridiculous and wondered how the poor would be able to afford it.

In Taiwan and Australia, the government have entrusted itself to take care of all her citizens who have contributed all their life to the good of the country. In Singapore, we call these welfare states as being unsustainable. But is it really that way? Have we looked at it seriously?

How is it that an insurance company can operate profitably to insure and take care of the ill and sick. Why is it that the government cannot risk pool effectively with the economy of scale for four million population that are compulsory customers of the national medical program?

Maybe it is timely to relook at the assumption that heavily subsidized medical or social welfare policies are not sustainable for a country like Singapore. Has the assumption changed from the time when Singapore was still a developing country, to the present time when Singapore is growing with all its might, investing billions into other countries.

We can use our surpluses to help Singaporeans to tide over in times of need. Would it be possible to just take out a tiny 0.5% of the budget allocated to GIC to achieve a program that can help create a sustainable health care system or other social policies?

Perhaps the other political parties can add value and suggest alternatives - instead of just critisizing the government. Sadly, the other political parties are lacking in substance and I would not entrust my future with them.

Someone said, "To enter politics, a leader must have passion. He wants to shape the destiny of the country and improve the lives and standard of living of people. He also wants to have a place in history of good things he has done for the country and people. "

Buy unit trusts with Fundsupermart

Fundsupermart charges 1.75% for the upfront fee to invest in the unit trusts in a RSP (i.e. regular savings plan). This is a low fee, as it is less than 3% that is being charged by most other unit trusts and investment-linked funds. 100% of the monthly savings is invested, compared to low "allocation rates" that take away more than 18 months of savings by an ILP policy.

I spoke to the Fundsupermart personnel who told me the following:
> I can invest cash or CPF savings
> The payments are done automatically, after the authorisation has been signed
> There are no additional charges

This sounds like a good way to make long term investment. I will arrange for all members of my family to visit the Fundsupermart office to sign the forms to open the accounts, bank authorisation, etc. They can have $x of monthly investment deducted from my bank account.

They can learn how to manage their accounts through the internet. By educating them, they will be able to manage the investments in unit trusts on their own in the future.

The next step is to decide on how to choose the unit trusts. I shall be looking at the following:
> well diversified
> invested mostly in blue chips
> low expense ratio (less than 1.3% p.a.)

If you have any tips, please send to kinlian@gmail.com. This will save me from making detailed research.

I believe that DollarDex and POEMS may have similarly attractive offers. If they send some details to me, I shall post them in this website.

Personal attack

I have to block a comment which make reference to a "comeback kid". This is personal and unnecessary. In other respects, the comment is well written. Please avoid being personal, and present the facts fairly.

Right and just will prevail

Dear Kin Lian,
I read the articles in your blog I am sure you will get the support you need. I do not have any NTUC Income policy that is affected. Finally the right and just will prevail. Unfortunately in our society the poor and the helpless people are made to pay for the greed of others. We need champions like you to stand up from time to time to fight for their right. God Bless.

Increase in motor insurance premiums

Several people have informed me about the large increase in motor insurance premiums this year.

I advised them to shop around for the lowest rates by calling the hotlines of the insurance companies. Here are the telephone numbers:
http://www.tankinlian.com/faq/motord.html

Some motorists have told me about savings of more than 20% by shopping around.

Restructuring of bonus

Someone posted in my blog that the restructuring of the bonus rates is sound actuarial practice. He (she) even suggested that this is what I would have done, if I were in charge of NTUC Income.

I have to disappoint this person. In my view, the restructuring of the bonus is unfair and is detrimental to the interest of policyholders. It contravenes their "reasonable expectation".

There is no need to restructure the bonus, unless the solvency is at threat. This is not the case, coming from a year of high investment yield. If this is the real reason (and I doubt it), then it should be stated openly and the cut in bonus should apply to all policies.

I do not like a large part of my policies' bonuses to be unvested, as it can be taken away at any time. I do not like the manner in which this restructuring has been done.

Give fair value to consumers

Someone from NTUC Income (probably an insurance agent) has been posting rude remarks in my blog accusing me of being "bitter" and behaving like "Dr. Mahathir" in my postings on the business practices of NTUC Income.

I wish to tell this person that I am not "bitter". I will continue to give a fair analysis of the various investment options available to the investing public.

I hope that NTUC Income will continue to uphold its principles of being a cooperative and giving fair value to the consumers. I will be happy to recommend NTUC Income in these circumstances.

He has been particularly unhappy that I do not recommend investing in the Combined Fund with an upfront charge of 3%. I find this charge to be too high, especially as many unit trusts have now reduced their upfront charge to 1.5% or less - for investors who invest directly.

I find that too many financial products have been launched in the market to take advantage of the naive, trusting consumer. They give poor value to the consumer. You can read my views here:

www.theonlinecitizen.com
http://theonlinecitizen.com/2008/04/30/high-cost-of-living-%e2%80%93-what-the-government-can-do/#comment-27523

On a separate point, I continue to receive many rude postings against insurance agents of NTUC Income. I have to block them from being posted. To the people who made these postings, please discontinue it, as it gives an unnecessary burden in moderation.

Leadership - lesson from India

Former President of India APJ Abdul Kalam at Wharton India Economic forum , Philadelphia , March 22, 2008

Question: Could you give an example, from your own experience, of how leaders should manage failure?

Kalam: Let me tell you about my experience. In 1973 I became the project director of India 's satellite launch vehicle program, commonly called the SLV-3. Our goal was to put India 's 'Rohini' satellite into orbit by 1980. I was given funds and human resources -but was told clearly that by 1980 we had to launch the satellite into space. Thousands of people worked together in scientific and technical teams towards that goal.

By 1979 - I think the month was August - we thought we were ready. As the project director, I went to the control center for the launch. At four minutes before the satellite launch, the computer began to go through the checklist of items that needed to be checked. One minute
later, the computer program put the launch on hold; the display showed that some control components were not in order.

My experts - I had four or five of them with me - told me not to worry; they had done their calculations and there was enough reserve fuel. So I bypassed the computer, switched to manual mode, and launched the rocket.

In the first stage, everything worked fine. In the second stage, a problem developed. Instead of the satellite going into orbit, the whole rocket system plunged into the Bay of Bengal . It was a big failure.

That day, the chairman of the Indian Space Research Organization, Prof. Satish Dhawan, had called a press conference. The launch was at 7:00 am, and the press conference- where journalists from around the world were present - was at 7:45 am at ISRO's satellite launch range in Sriharikota [in Andhra Pradesh in southern India ]. Prof. Dhawan, the leader of the organization, conducted the press conference himself. He took responsibility for the failure - he said that the team had worked very hard, but that it needed more technological support. He assured the media that in another year, the team would definitely succeed. Now, I was the project director, and it was my failure, but instead, he took responsibility for the failure as
chairman of the organization.

The next year, in July 1980, we tried again to launch the satellite - and this time we succeeded. The whole nation was jubilant. Again, there was a press conference. Prof. Dhawan called me aside and told me, 'You conduct the press conference today.'

I learned a very important lesson that day. When failure occurred, the leader of the organization owned that failure. When success came, he gave it to his team. The best management lesson I have learned did not come to me from reading a book; it came from that experience.

Sunday, May 04, 2008

Apply new bonus structure to new policies

Dear Mr. Tan,
I know that you are a fair and open minded person. The new INCOME management wants to change the bonus structure to achieve greater flexibility, solvency and earn a higher yield. So far, you have written in your blog against this decision. Can you identify some positive reasons for their action?

REPLY
Every system will have its advantages and disadvantages. The new bonus structure may attract a certain group of policyholders. But it is not suitable for other policyholders.

If NTUC Income wants to introduce a new bonus structure with low annual bonus, they should launch a new product and attract customers to buy it. They may even approach the existing policyholders to switch to the new product. If the customers are convinced about the benefit, they will accept the change.

NTUC Income said that the new bonus structure allows greater flexibilty of investment to achieve a higher yield. This remains to be seen. They can set aside a separate fund for the new bonus structure and put the new policies into this fund. If it can indeed earn a higher yield, the policyholders are entitled to the benefit. But it carries greater risk.

It is not correct to impose the new bonus structure on existing policyholders who were sold earlier on the old bonus structure.

In my personal opinon, the old bonus structure is more suitable for the current policyholders. Those who prefer the new bonus structure already have the choice of investing in investment-linked products (ILPs).

Prefer higher annual bonus

POSTED IN MY BLOG
Mr Tan,

My family, relatives & I bought many policies of NTUC Income. I am disppointed by the change in bonus structure too

We bought policies from NTUC Income because it is a co-operative hence it will be policyholder-focus insead of shareholder-focus. It is also a low-cost operator. All these means that it can introduce good value products, and return more benefits to policyholders.

Moreover, insurance companies are investing in the same kind of assets, largely in bonds, due to regulatory requirements. Hence I believe their investment performance should be largely the same over in the long term. Hence low-cost and policyholder-centric factors are real differentiators to higher higher bonus payouts.

I read that the new bonus structure is more in line with industry practice. It is also industry practice to cut terminal bonus drastically during major financial crisis in the past such as SARS, 911, Asia Financial Crisis, to remain their financial solvency. I have been investing directly in the equity market for the past 10 years, so I am quite certain major financial crisis will occur again in future. Hence I favour higher annual bonus declaration than a significantly higher but uncertain terminal bonus.

I applaud and support your effort to advocate NTUC Income to reverse their position on this matter.

Terminal bonus is not guaranteed

Dear Mr. Tan
I always thought that Terminal Bonus is like Annual Bonus which is guaranteed once declared. Hence if my policy year crosses the year that terminal bonus is payable and is declared as per projected, such terminal bonus will be locked in to my policy.

REPLY
The terminal bonus is not guaranteed. The terminal bonus is payable based the rate that applies at the time of maturity, or surrender or death claim. It is possible for the terminal bonus to be withdrawn at the last minute, just before it becomes payable. I do not like a high rate of terminal bonus, due to its uncertainty.

Life insurance company use this "gimmick" to entice customers to buy their products. Many policyholders have been disappointed with the reduction in the terminal bonus after waiting for many, many years. By that time, it was too late for them to change their mind.

Bonuses reduced by a significant amount

Hi Mr. Tan,
I have been reading your blog with focus on the bonus reduction issue by NTUC recently. I wrote to NTUC based on the template provided by you - thanks!

It seems that my two policies were affected by the bonus cut. The 2007 bonus sums have been reduced by a fair amount. There seems to be a significant cash value reduction over the next 5 years as well. Would you review my policies and provide your brief comments please?

I'd think it's not advisable for me to surrender these 2 policies now - I'll just keep these as my 'bond' portion of my investment portfolio.

REPLY
NTUC Income has reduced the annual bonus. But they claim that the terminal bonus, payable on surrender, has been increased to compensate for the reduction.

Personally, I do not like the terminal bonus as it is not guaranteed, and may be taken away. The annual bonus is vested and guaranteed each year as it is declared.

I will be organising a collective protest. You can read about it in my blog. I hope that you will join this effort.

Does the Growth policy still give good value?

Dear Mr. Tan,
I was always told that NTUC Income was the only one can give the policyholder the best and protect our interest and thus, for more than 10 years I have "invested" my hard-earn extra cash or CPF into "one basket", i.e. NTUC INCOME. I now feel uncomfortatble with INCOME when receiving their notice to reduce the annual bonus as below.
(details deleted)

Dear
> You invested $50,000 more than 10 years ago. At that time, the projected maturity benefit was $136,403 representing a yield of 5.7% p.a.
> During the difficult years when investment yields were low, the bonus rate was reduced. The projected amount on maturity was revised to $114,047.
> With the latest round of bonus revision, the projected amount at maturity has increased marginally to $116,467. It represents a yield of 4.8% on your invested sum of $50,000 over 18 years.

I think that this revised yield is quite satisfactory. It give a better return than CPF. The Growth policy still represents a good investment because you took it earlier. I am not sure that a Growth policy today will give the same good value.
Tan Kin Lian

Dear Mr Tan,
Thanks a lot for taking time to give me the advice on my policy. I really appreciate it.

I wrote to INCOME before for advice on my cash value if I cancel some policies and the reply was a typical "stereotype" answer of my cash value. I also went to NTUC Income of Jurong East and Ubi before for advice. The customer service seems not well trained for providing advices and instead asking me whether I am interested in their new policy - Vivolife.

Once again, I would like to thanks for your kindness for taking time to reply me. You place the policyholder first before shareholder's point of view.

(I think you are hurt and upset of handing over to some new management team that does not follow the service commitment of the cooperative insurance society formed in 1970, " Income has always placed the interests of our policyholders foremost" stated in NTUC INCOME website - it will no longer valid after you leave the organisation.......)

The less I drink, the more drunk I get

On the lighter side:

A beer addict orders 5 glasses of beer. He gulped it down. Then he ordered 4 glasses, and gulped it down. He ordered 3 glasses and gulped it down. Then he ordered 2 glasses.

The bar tender said, "I have never seen a customer drink beer in this manner. It's surprising." The addict said, "Yes. I am also surprised. It seems that the less beer I drink, the more drunk I get."

Larry Haverkamp said, "The beer addict is focusing on the first derivative and not on the absolute quantum". Can you understand Larry?

Silent majority and bonus cut

Dear Mr. Tan,

I am one of the many silent majority that approves of your public admonishment of NTUC Income over the bonus issue. Frankly most of us have no idea of what we buy.


I am x years old now, married with a daughter. My wife is not working. My apartment is fully paid up. I have limited cash resources, thus I have to cash up my LIVING policies when my daughter goes for university. I have very limited insurance coverage, all with NTUC. That's why I am concerned over the bonus issue.

We have 2 LIVING policies. If we surrender the LIVING policies, is there something else that we can do? I need ultimately the cash values for a university education.

REPLY
i suggest that you ask NTUC Income to quote to you the surrender value for the next five years on your Living policy.

Read this FAQ:
http://www.tankinlian.com/faq/existinglife.html

With the surrender value, you will get a better idea about your options. You can send it to me, and we can discuss it together.

More than 1,000 visitors on Saturday

There were 1,134 visitors to my blog on Saturday (yesterday). Previously, I received an average of 600 visitors on a Saturday. It seems that the bonus cut continues to attract many visitors.

The daily average has now exceeded my target of 1,000 visitors.

Letter on Bonus Cuts

Some policyholders have not received any letter from NTUC Income. They asked if they are affected by the bonus cut.

To my understanding, most of the policies taken during the last 10 or 15 years are affected by the bonus cut. The policies taken earlier are not affected.

NTUC Income appears to be sending out the letters in batches. I have not received the letters addressed to me, until I asked for them. My family members have not received their letters as well.

If you have not received the letters yet, you may also be affected by the bonus cut. The letter will arrive later.

If you wish to check, you can write directly to NTUC Income. Give them your NRIC. They will be able to check and inform you.

Annual General Meeting of NTUC Income

I was told that the AGM will be held on 30 May. All life policyholders and shareholders of NTUC Income are entitled to attend the AGM. You have to register your interest with the cooperative secretary and get a pass.

I intend to attend the AGM and voice my views. I hope to see other policyholders turn up at the AGM.

Indexed funds or unit trust?

I made a posting about the unit trust that can be purchased through Fundsupermart. They allows regular savings plan at only 1.75%.

The expense ratio of several of the unit trusts marketed by Fundsupermart are between 1% to 1.5%. They are not low, but not too high (i.e. high cost fund charges between 1.5% to 3%). You can select a broadly based unit trust that shows a good yield over a 10 year period.

Some people have recommended to invest in indexed funds, which have low expense ratio. I agree. I hope that the low cost indexed funds will be available within the next 6 to 12 months. In the meantime, the StateStreet STI ETF is a good option, but it requires an investment of $3,300 each time.

For those who wish to invest in monthly sums, the unit trust offered by Fundsupermart is a good choice. The fee of 1.75% is much lower than the charges imposed by ILPs sold by insurance companies.

These high fees charged by ILPs are:
> allocation rates that take away two years of savings
> investment spreads of 3% to 7%

Apart from Fundsupermart, you can also study the options provided by DollarDex and by POEMS (Philipps Securities). I am sure that their marketing people will be posting their offers in my blog.

Lesson: Avoid ILPs sold by life insurance agents, as they have high charges that take away up to two years of your savings.

Smoothing or bunching

COMMENT POSTED IN MY BLOG

There is some confusion of this new scheme with "income smoothing" whereby the insurance company pays steady bonuses, regardless of its investment returns.This new bonus scheme is not income smoothing. It is the opposite. It is "income bunching". The policyholder's steady bonus stream is removed and a hefty terminal bonus is substituted.

Larry Haverkamp

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