Hi Mr. Tan
Recently there is a debate going on whether the SMRT trains in Singapore are overly crowded or not. The SMRT doesn't think very much of it as evidenced in their CEO's untactful remarks, whilst practically everyone blogging on the internet curse and swear at how bad the situation had become.
Looking at the case again, I just discovered that everything hinges on a statistic which is provided by SMRT Quote:...This averages 3.8 passengers per sq m, lower than that of major cities like London..... Unquote.
So 3.8 passengere per sq m is the agreed benchmark. I have no problem with that. But look at the word AVERAGE. Therein lies the solution to the puzzle. It's not about the number 3.8 neither is it about the techie word crushload. It's about AVERAGE.
AVERAGE is a very dangerous concept if not properly managed. If the annual salary of the PM is $3 million and the annual salary of the rest of the 9 ordinary workers in the PMO (PrimeMinister's Office) is $50,000 then mathematically the average annual salary of the people in the PMO is $305,000 per person? In statistical theory there are median, and mode, standard deviation, etc to refine the imperfect concept of averaging. In the real world, we also need to know more about the model used for "averaging".
How does SMRT calculate its AVERAGE crush load? Is it over time average between peak period and non peak period per station basis? How many stations are selected? Which are the stations selected for the averaging? Are newer stations which have lower load factor bundled together for averaging?
Statistics is a powerful tool which can often lead to wrong conclusions. Sometimes it is so powerful that it can be used as a tool to make one feel complacent and look good. And those who ignore the possibly distorted conclusions might be told to make other choices because the sysem is just doing fine - on "average".
- ► 2013 (303)
- ► 2012 (1270)
- ► 2011 (1873)
07/04 - 07/11
- Internet browser
- Prototype website
- FIFA World Cup - Predict the Winners
- A fair investment product
- Motor insurance and claims
- FAQ - Shield insurance
- Youth Olympic Games
- Consultants and failed projects
- Private tuition and unemployed professionals
- Wall Street Journal: 1937 vs 2010
- Views of young people
- Temasek Investment Results
- Paul the Octopus
- How does believing we are souls help us in our dai...
- Survey - distance based fares
- Medical insurance for Parents
- Young people in Singapore
- Business simulation game
- FAQ - Personal Accident Insurance
- Look before you leap
- Lend money to a friend
- SingTel Website
- Promotion on my books
- A different view
- Decentralising of risks
- FAQ - Financial planning for a retiree
- Effect of deduction
- Critical Illness claim
- World Cup - the octopus
- Video - Wisdom on how to live life 
- Leaders of the Free World
- Transparency and accountability
- Major I.T. Failure
- Marriage Humor
- Booking a taxi during rainy days
- Tips on buying life insurance
- FAQ - Insurance for a child
- FISCA Educational Talks
- Redeeming feature
- Limited Pay Policy
- Bank interest rate
- Talks on Financial Planning at Community Centers a...
- Global Navigation Satellite System
- TABS Simulation - Tangram book prize
- At a mental hospital
- FAQ - Benefit Illustration
- Satellite based ERP
- Beyond public transport
- FAQ - Term Insurance
- Quiz 6-3
- Taxi Automated Booking System (TABS) - Simulation ...
- Pays of CEOs
- Cloud computing and entrepreneurs
- Are Singaporeans paying for monkeys?
- Distance based fare
- The legacy of reputation
- Space in MRT trains
- Taxi Automated Booking System (TABS) - Simulation
- Invest in STI ETF
- Talks on Financial Planning to Students
- Better, betterer, betterest
- Holland vs Germany
- Developing our own talents
- World Cup and Management Science
- Business simulation game (BEST)
- ▼ 07/04 - 07/11 (66)
- ► 2009 (1655)
- ► 2008 (2105)
- ► 2007 (1803)
- ► 2006 (696)
- ► 2005 (159)