Monday, March 28, 2016

Bernie Sanders has a good chance to beat HillaryClinton

I expect Bernie Sanders to do well in the remaining states that will hold their primary election for the Democratic Nomination.

Here are my reasons.

a) His message is now getting to be known by the voters and the response has been resoundingly in his favor. This is shown by the results for Alaska, Washington and Hawaii.

b)  He will do better with the minorities. This is shown by the results in Michigan (non-white 20%) and Hawaii (non-white 75%).

c) His relatively poor showing in Florida and Ohio could be due to the Spring Break, where most of the young voters (who are strongly in support of Bernie Sanders) were on holiday

He still remain relatively weak among the African American community, but I expect that this will change as more people get to know his campaign messages and as time goes on.

All the best for Bernie Sanders. There is a chance that he can overtake Hillary Clinton in the delegate count, if the momentum continues.


Yujuan said...

Pity Hillary sabotaged herself with using her private email to conduct official business, this is illegal in America, all officials have to use their official email accounts, concerns security issues, could go to jail. When attacked, she couldn't provide answers.
Also her donor funds are relatively large, meaning she has large support from some tycoons, maybe Warren Buffett is one, easier for him to control a woman for his own business Agenda.
Trump may end up the winner provided someone able to dig out some scandals relating to his business affairs. But not likely, as he is known to be very disciplined and strict even with his own children.
People around the world is hoping for a Hillary or Sanders to win, even the Saudis are scared of a Trump win, Trump is a business man, no money to be made, no talk, no benefit to extract, no military aid for South Korea, Japan and the Saudis.
Even our PM Lee is nervous, now in America feeling the ground.

Anonymous said...

Mr. Tan,

To be frank, I'm not sure where you're getting your US politics sources. Any analyst will tell you that Sen. Sanders woefully underperforms with minority voters. In some states in the South Sec. Clinton won 90% of the non-white vote - a landslide no matter how you try to spin it. Nate Silver - almost universally considered the best statistician covering US elections - said this in October: "Bernie Sanders has a problem with minority voters that will likely prevent him from winning the Democratic presidential nomination if he doesn’t fix it." So far, nothing has challenged that statement.

The notion that African-American voters should support Sen. Sanders on policy matters is not supported by anybody who engages with that community; it is wishful thinking by supporters of Sen. Sanders. The African-American conception of American liberalism is very Christian and socially conservative, another group of democratic voters that Sen. Clinton has carried resoundingly. Perhaps most importantly, African-American voters very fondly remember Bill Clinton's time in office. In fact, many people even call him "the first honorary black President"! More than anything, this is why they are a firewall for Sec. Clinton.

I am perplexed that so many Singaporeans support Sen. Sanders. I can understand that Americans support him; he is a breath of fresh air when it comes to domestic policy, including healthcare. I respect his willingness to challenge the status quo. His knowledge of foreign policy, however, is woefully limited. Even his supporters cringed when he suggested that the main reason for terrorism was climate change. He would be a disaster for the security of American allies abroad.

Blog Archive