Saturday, November 02, 2019

Quora: Why does China seem so confident in the Trade War?

Jonathan Tan, was an avid reader of science magazines answered.

Because while the US is spending 680 billion every year (that’s closing in on a trillion) on their military, China is spending 150 billion for their military and 150+ billion every year on their one road, one belt project.

The US military budget is a hole. It goes out but nothing comes back in (this is why the US is always looking to fight a war where it can benefit resource wise and where the opponent isn’t too tough)

China’s military budge is a hole too but its 20% of the US and their road/belt is very smart as it is simply loaning money which mostly goes to Chinese construction companies (remember both are year by year). This brings several benefits

i) Employment. The number of Chinese is huge. Finding suitable employment for all is difficult. This allows them to maintain a lid on low skilled workers while letting them do on the job training for higher skills, for a double win

ii) Loans. The loans can either be low interest or interest free but the money comes back (in the form of leased assets or actual returns)

iii) Improvement in logistics. This is massively important because this allows China to access primary resources found in hard to reach areas in reasonable time and a reliable manner.

iv) New markets. Any trader wants a new market for their goods, even if the trader is the size of a nation. By improving economic conditions in the country hosting the road/belt, they create more able consumers who can spend more.

The money the Chinese are spending improves their own economic conditions. As long as the road/belt continues in a timely manner, the impact of losing the US export market is reduced.

Off tangent:

Why would the host countries want to be involved in the road/belt when all these western news are shouting “Its a debt trap!!!” (which is true when the host country has terrible planners). I suspect China’s view is that its a bank/business, so you default, you lose your collateral

The reasons differ from each country but some are common.

i) The infrastructure built allows you to move goods and people around much easier. This allows the exploitation of resources in areas that may have been hard to travel to and from.

For example, farmers in villages where the road is a mud track won’t be able to transport their goods far before it rots and weather can strand them as the road

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