Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Article: Don't expect another bull market

Dear Mr. Tan,

Please give your comment on this article:

Don't expect another bull market
Stock returns may never be the same - at least for this generation of investors.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/02/29/magazines/fortune/bull_market.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008030303

REPLY

The author said that for the past 20 years of the bull market, the stock market produced a return of 19% per year. He does not expect this kind of return in the future.

Over a longer period of 56 years, the stock market return was 9% per year.

For the future, the author said that he is reasonably confident that "stocks are likely to outperform high-quality bonds in the long term" 30-year Treasuries now yield about 4.5%.

I agree with the author. I expect stocks to yield about 6% in the future. I have indicated this as the likely return for the future. This is better than bonds, and is more suitable for a long term investor.

1 comment:

Mao Fa said...

Will history (19% return) repeat itself in China?

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