You can get information on the general election held in 2006 here, www.easyapps.sg/sgep/latest.aspx. This is useful to compare against the results of the next election to be held soon.
Brief summary:
The 2006 Singapore parliamentary general election was held on 6 May 2006. 1.22 million out of the 2.16 million eligible Singaporeans voted for Members of Parliament and elected their next government. The People's Action Party (PAP), in its first election under Lee Hsien Loong, won 66.6% of the overall votes and gained 82 out of 84 seats. The PAP returned for a twelfth consecutive term in office under thePrime Minister.
The general election was held under the first-past-the-post system. The parliament was dissolved by President S R Nathan on 20 April, three weeks before the election. On Nomination Day, the PAP gained 37 seats in divisions which were uncontested by other parties. The main election issues included employment, cost of living, housing, transport, education, the need for an effective opposition voice in parliament, and the quality of the candidates.
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query general election. Sort by date Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query general election. Sort by date Show all posts
Friday, October 01, 2010
Saturday, August 22, 2015
Elected President - when will be the next election?
Mr. Tan
When will be the next Presidential Election?
Do you plan to contest again?
REPLY
The next Presidential Election is due in 2017. The President holds office for a term of 6 years. The last election was in August 2011.
The PAP government will not change the constitution prior to the general election. They want the current president to exercise his powers in case the general election produces a new government.
After the general election, I expect the constitution to be changed to reduce the power of the elected president. Perhaps they will revert to a ceremonial head of state, which was the situation in the past.
The current arrangement is impractical. The government keeps bypassing the president on key issues, such as the loan to the International Monetary Fund.
Mr. Kenneth Jeyaretnam had to take a case to the High Court to argue that the government is acting against the constitution. This is embarrassing for the government and also create a headache for the court.
I suspect that there will be no more election for the elected President. Whatever the outcome, I do not intend to contest the next Presidential Election. Once is enough.
When will be the next Presidential Election?
Do you plan to contest again?
REPLY
The next Presidential Election is due in 2017. The President holds office for a term of 6 years. The last election was in August 2011.
The PAP government will not change the constitution prior to the general election. They want the current president to exercise his powers in case the general election produces a new government.
After the general election, I expect the constitution to be changed to reduce the power of the elected president. Perhaps they will revert to a ceremonial head of state, which was the situation in the past.
The current arrangement is impractical. The government keeps bypassing the president on key issues, such as the loan to the International Monetary Fund.
Mr. Kenneth Jeyaretnam had to take a case to the High Court to argue that the government is acting against the constitution. This is embarrassing for the government and also create a headache for the court.
I suspect that there will be no more election for the elected President. Whatever the outcome, I do not intend to contest the next Presidential Election. Once is enough.
Sunday, December 02, 2018
Vote non PAP - you will win either way
Half of the respondents of a poll preferred the non PAP parties to work together to win the general election and form the next govt. This will allow the bad policies to be changed.
The other half preferred that they win at least one third of the seats in Parliament.
The option to form a new govt requires the non PAP parties to form a coalition and to contest under one logo. This is not likely to happen. The SDP had called a meeting of the non PAP parties and asked Dr. Tan Cheng Bock to lead the coalition. He was open to that idea at that meeting.
However, there was no further development since that meeting. The grapevine reported that Dr. Tan is forming a new party. We will have yet another new party.
The unhappiness with the policies of the current PAP govt seems to be quite widespread among most segments of the society. There is clearly a yearning for change. Most people want to see change.
It is quite likely that there will be three strong non PAP parties at the next general election - the Workers Party, the SDP and Dr. Tan's new party.
What about the other parties that contested unsuccessfully at the previous election and the new party formed by Lim Tean? Tean's party seemed to have quite a good following and has a large impact in social media.
It will be best for these smaller parties to join one of the three major parties. (I am giving credit to Dr. Tan's party as being a major party). Being a new party, it is likely to be able to attract the merger of the smaller parties.
The next best thing for the non-PAP supporters is to see three major non PAP parties contesting the next general election against the PAP. It should be easy for these non PAP parties to have an understanding of the constituencies that they should be contesting, e.g. WP in the east, Dr Tan's party in the west and SDP in the north and central.
The widespread unhappiness may bring about a 15% to 20% swing against the PAP. This could lead to the non PAP parties taking over 15 to 25 seats in Parliament. It will be a healthier state of affairs for Singapore.
The PAP will still govern. But they will have to change some of their bad policies to avoid the risk of being kicked out of govt at the following general election. This change will be welcomed.
What if the PAP loses the majority in Parliament? They are likely to form a coalition with one of the other parties. It would be a good outcome.
My message to the people is - vote non PAP. You will win either way.
Tan Kin Lian
The other half preferred that they win at least one third of the seats in Parliament.
The option to form a new govt requires the non PAP parties to form a coalition and to contest under one logo. This is not likely to happen. The SDP had called a meeting of the non PAP parties and asked Dr. Tan Cheng Bock to lead the coalition. He was open to that idea at that meeting.
However, there was no further development since that meeting. The grapevine reported that Dr. Tan is forming a new party. We will have yet another new party.
The unhappiness with the policies of the current PAP govt seems to be quite widespread among most segments of the society. There is clearly a yearning for change. Most people want to see change.
It is quite likely that there will be three strong non PAP parties at the next general election - the Workers Party, the SDP and Dr. Tan's new party.
What about the other parties that contested unsuccessfully at the previous election and the new party formed by Lim Tean? Tean's party seemed to have quite a good following and has a large impact in social media.
It will be best for these smaller parties to join one of the three major parties. (I am giving credit to Dr. Tan's party as being a major party). Being a new party, it is likely to be able to attract the merger of the smaller parties.
The next best thing for the non-PAP supporters is to see three major non PAP parties contesting the next general election against the PAP. It should be easy for these non PAP parties to have an understanding of the constituencies that they should be contesting, e.g. WP in the east, Dr Tan's party in the west and SDP in the north and central.
The widespread unhappiness may bring about a 15% to 20% swing against the PAP. This could lead to the non PAP parties taking over 15 to 25 seats in Parliament. It will be a healthier state of affairs for Singapore.
The PAP will still govern. But they will have to change some of their bad policies to avoid the risk of being kicked out of govt at the following general election. This change will be welcomed.
What if the PAP loses the majority in Parliament? They are likely to form a coalition with one of the other parties. It would be a good outcome.
My message to the people is - vote non PAP. You will win either way.
Tan Kin Lian
Thursday, August 27, 2015
Answers given to an international media
Dear Mr Tan, how are you? Most grateful if you have some time to reply to a few questions given its election season.
1. What do you make of the state of affairs the opposition is in? And what's the impact to the ruling party? Can the opposition mount a convincing challenge?
TKL: As Mr. Lee Kuan Yew is no longer around, there will be a small swing towards to alternative parties, but the impact will not be significant. Mr. Lee's influence had diminished somewhat over the years, as he had stepped down from active leadership for more than 20 years.
4. Is this election an opportunity for PM Lee to put in place the next generation of leaders? How crucial is it for the party's succession planning?
TKL: The system of self renewal adopted by the Peoples Action Party is not effective. If we are as the United Kingdom, there will be sufficient numbers of law makers to pick from, to form the next generation of leadership. I prefer the system in the United States where the President can pick his ministers from anywhere in the country, subject to endorsement of the Congress. This will provide a better choice.
5. Significance of this election as the first since the death of LKY? Will the Pap lose more seats or will it win more?
TKL: At the Punggol East by-election, there was a swing of 10% away from the PAP. At this general election, I expect the swing to be smaller, but there will still be a significant swing. The issues affecting the people, such as the high cost of living, the uncertainty over jobs, the over crowding of public transport and other public services, and the stressful life have not gone away.
I expect that the PAP will lose more seats in this general election, but they will be returned to power with a comfortable majority. My guess is that the alternative parties will win 15 to 20 seats.
6. What kind of role does social media play in the current election? In 2011, social media helped fanned tension and raised hot button issues such as immigration and transport congestion. Does legal action against bloggers Amos Yee and Roy Ngerng help the PAP's cause or not?
TKL: The social media continues to play an important role in providing alternative views and sources of information to the general public. However, some of the messages in the social media are extreme, so the public will have to be discerning about interpreting these views. Most of them are mature and know what information are reliable, and what are not.
1. What do you make of the state of affairs the opposition is in? And what's the impact to the ruling party? Can the opposition mount a convincing challenge?
TKL: Several of the alternative parties (i.e. other than People's Action Party) are well organized. The Workers' Party is clearly a stronger party. The Singapore Democratic Party has also organized their strategy well and have issued several well written and convincing policy papers during the past two years. The new parties, such as the Reform Party and the Singapore First party look promising.
2. The opposition seems fragmented and the ambition appears not to run the country but to provide an alternative voice in parliament. Why is this so and does the current system of ncmp and nmp work? Is this real democracy?
2. The opposition seems fragmented and the ambition appears not to run the country but to provide an alternative voice in parliament. Why is this so and does the current system of ncmp and nmp work? Is this real democracy?
TKL: It is a good strategy for the alternative parties to aim to provide an alternative voice in Parliament. We need policy issues to be actively debated in Parliament and for diverse points of views to be considered before the laws are passed. We also need the laws to be well thought through and clearly written.
The system of NCMP and NMP is not effective to provide the healthy debate. It is better to have law makers from several political parties that speak with the mandate of the people. I also hope that the ruling party will allow their MPs to speak freely from their own conscience and reflect the majority views of their constituents.
3. With Lee Kuan Yew no longer around, do you think more may be compelled to join the opposition or vote them in and why?
The system of NCMP and NMP is not effective to provide the healthy debate. It is better to have law makers from several political parties that speak with the mandate of the people. I also hope that the ruling party will allow their MPs to speak freely from their own conscience and reflect the majority views of their constituents.
3. With Lee Kuan Yew no longer around, do you think more may be compelled to join the opposition or vote them in and why?
TKL: As Mr. Lee Kuan Yew is no longer around, there will be a small swing towards to alternative parties, but the impact will not be significant. Mr. Lee's influence had diminished somewhat over the years, as he had stepped down from active leadership for more than 20 years.
4. Is this election an opportunity for PM Lee to put in place the next generation of leaders? How crucial is it for the party's succession planning?
TKL: The system of self renewal adopted by the Peoples Action Party is not effective. If we are as the United Kingdom, there will be sufficient numbers of law makers to pick from, to form the next generation of leadership. I prefer the system in the United States where the President can pick his ministers from anywhere in the country, subject to endorsement of the Congress. This will provide a better choice.
5. Significance of this election as the first since the death of LKY? Will the Pap lose more seats or will it win more?
TKL: At the Punggol East by-election, there was a swing of 10% away from the PAP. At this general election, I expect the swing to be smaller, but there will still be a significant swing. The issues affecting the people, such as the high cost of living, the uncertainty over jobs, the over crowding of public transport and other public services, and the stressful life have not gone away.
I expect that the PAP will lose more seats in this general election, but they will be returned to power with a comfortable majority. My guess is that the alternative parties will win 15 to 20 seats.
6. What kind of role does social media play in the current election? In 2011, social media helped fanned tension and raised hot button issues such as immigration and transport congestion. Does legal action against bloggers Amos Yee and Roy Ngerng help the PAP's cause or not?
TKL: The social media continues to play an important role in providing alternative views and sources of information to the general public. However, some of the messages in the social media are extreme, so the public will have to be discerning about interpreting these views. Most of them are mature and know what information are reliable, and what are not.
Sunday, March 17, 2019
Be positive in sharing your support of alternative voices
Once in a while, I see remarks posted here from people who said - do not just complain (they use the expression kpkb). Go and contest the next general election.
I do not know whether these people are PAP moles who has the goal to cause distraction and uncertainty to the alternative voices or whether they are just plain stupid.
I want these supporters of the alternative voices to know that it is not just a matter of contesting the general election. A candidate do not automatically get elected just by contesting in an election. The exception is a candidate on a white ticket in a safe GRC with an anchor minister
Voters who are fed up with the PAP do not just vote any non PAP candidate. They want to know the candidate - his character, his views, his background.
These people need to express their views in the social media. Even the established parties, such as the WP or SDP, need to be active in social media to reach out to the voters. Even if they have an active social media presence, they find it difficult to reach out to the voters who are generally apathetic.
So, the negative remarks are not helpful. If you want to support the alternative voices, you have to be positive and helpful.
Let me share with you who are the positive people.
About 300 of them turned up at Hong Lim Park at the protest arranged by the Peoples' Voice Party. At least, they take the trouble to show up and give their support. They have the courage to be seen at the protest rally. They already scored many points compared to the other supporters who only appear in the social media.
Those so called supporters who post negative comments should really be ashamed of their bad behavior.
I was further encouraged by the generous donations of several dozen people who came forward to put $10 or $50 into the donation box to defray the expenses of the rally. They are showing their support in a most positive way, with the little money that they can afford to spare.
These people really show to me that it is worth while for other people to come forward and stand in the general election and offer an alternative choice to the people.
I want to also share with you the good work done by Terry Xu of The Online Citizen. He is still being charged, and in my view quite unfairly, for criminal defamation by the Attorney General's Office. His only act was to post an opinion by a person who alleges "corruption at the highest echelons of government". He still faced the charge after agreeing to take down the offense post.
What did Terry Xu do at the rally? He posted the speeches live. You can view all the speeches held during the three hours here.
I recommend you to listen to the speeches by Brad Bowyer, Leong Sze Hian and Lim Tean. Click here.
There are brave people who are willing to take the risk and express their views on why we need a change of government. You can hear them at Hong Lim Park. Are you willing to support them?
I am now 71 years old. I can afford to retire and enjoy my remaining years. But I am afraid that the future for the people in Singapore will continue to get worse under the bad policies of the PAP. So, I am willing to speak out and convince people to support an alternative. (Do not describe me as kpkb).
Tan Kin Lian
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=1221
,.
I do not know whether these people are PAP moles who has the goal to cause distraction and uncertainty to the alternative voices or whether they are just plain stupid.
I want these supporters of the alternative voices to know that it is not just a matter of contesting the general election. A candidate do not automatically get elected just by contesting in an election. The exception is a candidate on a white ticket in a safe GRC with an anchor minister
Voters who are fed up with the PAP do not just vote any non PAP candidate. They want to know the candidate - his character, his views, his background.
These people need to express their views in the social media. Even the established parties, such as the WP or SDP, need to be active in social media to reach out to the voters. Even if they have an active social media presence, they find it difficult to reach out to the voters who are generally apathetic.
So, the negative remarks are not helpful. If you want to support the alternative voices, you have to be positive and helpful.
Let me share with you who are the positive people.
About 300 of them turned up at Hong Lim Park at the protest arranged by the Peoples' Voice Party. At least, they take the trouble to show up and give their support. They have the courage to be seen at the protest rally. They already scored many points compared to the other supporters who only appear in the social media.
Those so called supporters who post negative comments should really be ashamed of their bad behavior.
I was further encouraged by the generous donations of several dozen people who came forward to put $10 or $50 into the donation box to defray the expenses of the rally. They are showing their support in a most positive way, with the little money that they can afford to spare.
These people really show to me that it is worth while for other people to come forward and stand in the general election and offer an alternative choice to the people.
I want to also share with you the good work done by Terry Xu of The Online Citizen. He is still being charged, and in my view quite unfairly, for criminal defamation by the Attorney General's Office. His only act was to post an opinion by a person who alleges "corruption at the highest echelons of government". He still faced the charge after agreeing to take down the offense post.
What did Terry Xu do at the rally? He posted the speeches live. You can view all the speeches held during the three hours here.
I recommend you to listen to the speeches by Brad Bowyer, Leong Sze Hian and Lim Tean. Click here.
There are brave people who are willing to take the risk and express their views on why we need a change of government. You can hear them at Hong Lim Park. Are you willing to support them?
I am now 71 years old. I can afford to retire and enjoy my remaining years. But I am afraid that the future for the people in Singapore will continue to get worse under the bad policies of the PAP. So, I am willing to speak out and convince people to support an alternative. (Do not describe me as kpkb).
Tan Kin Lian
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=1221
,.
Monday, May 14, 2012
Hougang by-election - my vote
Is this a local election to elect a Member of Parliament to represent a constituency or a mini referendum on the performance of the PAP Government?
In my view, it is both; and more inclined towards the latter.
Local election
Both candidates have good points and deserve the support of the voters.
Desmond Choo of the Peoples’ Action Party has been working hard and “wearing his socks out”. He has also promised to continue to work in the constituency, even if he is not elected in this round. He does get good media coverage – which is a benefit of contesting under the PAP banner.
Png Eng Huat of the Workers Party has been working in the grassroots in Hougang for five years. I know of this fact, as he was my former colleague. I know Png to be reliable, helpful and friendly. He may appear to be “low key” but I watched a video of his speech at the previous general election – and he talked sense!
Whoever wins on 26 May will be a win for Hougang voters.
Mini Referendum
I expect that this by-election will be a mini referendum on the performance of the PAP Government over the year since the 2011 general election.
Positive Points
Here are the positive points that voters can give credit to the Government
1. It carried out a salary review of government ministers and implemented a cut of one third of their previous salaries. Link.
2. It accelerated the building of HDB flats. When completed in a few years time, the new supply is likely to moderate or reduce the cost of HDB flats. Link.
3. It reduced the issue of work passes for foreign workers and declined to renew some existing passes. Link.
4. It invested $1.1 billion to provide more buses for public transport. Link
5. It launched the Financial Advisory Industry Review to look into consumer issues in the finance sector. Link
6. It promised to review the insurance schemes for medical and long term care. Link
These are commendable efforts, although many critics were able to find fault with the pace, extent and direction of these initiatives.
Negative Points
I give demerit points to the Government on the following issues.
1. It refused to amend the Internal Security Act, in spite of a similar act being abolished in Malaysia. Link
2. It delayed the calling of the Hougang by-election unnecessarily, which prompted a resident to take this matter to court. Link
3. It appeared to be rather weak, depending on a few experienced ministers to look after several key ministries and to rely on new ministers that are inexperienced in their portfolios.
4. It refused to recognise the flaws in past policies that caused the bad outcomes, and to make fundamental changes, preferring instead to “tweak” the ineffective policies.
My vote
If I were a voter in Hougang (and I am not), I would place my vote for the Workers Party. It is important to pass a message to the PAP Government that several existing policies need a fundamental review and change. They should also change their style of government and be prepared to listen more to the “common sense” of the people in deciding on the future direction of Singapore.
Tan Kin Lian
www.tankinlian.blogspot.com
In my view, it is both; and more inclined towards the latter.
Local election
Both candidates have good points and deserve the support of the voters.
Desmond Choo of the Peoples’ Action Party has been working hard and “wearing his socks out”. He has also promised to continue to work in the constituency, even if he is not elected in this round. He does get good media coverage – which is a benefit of contesting under the PAP banner.
Png Eng Huat of the Workers Party has been working in the grassroots in Hougang for five years. I know of this fact, as he was my former colleague. I know Png to be reliable, helpful and friendly. He may appear to be “low key” but I watched a video of his speech at the previous general election – and he talked sense!
Whoever wins on 26 May will be a win for Hougang voters.
Mini Referendum
I expect that this by-election will be a mini referendum on the performance of the PAP Government over the year since the 2011 general election.
Positive Points
Here are the positive points that voters can give credit to the Government
1. It carried out a salary review of government ministers and implemented a cut of one third of their previous salaries. Link.
2. It accelerated the building of HDB flats. When completed in a few years time, the new supply is likely to moderate or reduce the cost of HDB flats. Link.
3. It reduced the issue of work passes for foreign workers and declined to renew some existing passes. Link.
4. It invested $1.1 billion to provide more buses for public transport. Link
5. It launched the Financial Advisory Industry Review to look into consumer issues in the finance sector. Link
6. It promised to review the insurance schemes for medical and long term care. Link
These are commendable efforts, although many critics were able to find fault with the pace, extent and direction of these initiatives.
Negative Points
I give demerit points to the Government on the following issues.
1. It refused to amend the Internal Security Act, in spite of a similar act being abolished in Malaysia. Link
2. It delayed the calling of the Hougang by-election unnecessarily, which prompted a resident to take this matter to court. Link
3. It appeared to be rather weak, depending on a few experienced ministers to look after several key ministries and to rely on new ministers that are inexperienced in their portfolios.
4. It refused to recognise the flaws in past policies that caused the bad outcomes, and to make fundamental changes, preferring instead to “tweak” the ineffective policies.
My vote
If I were a voter in Hougang (and I am not), I would place my vote for the Workers Party. It is important to pass a message to the PAP Government that several existing policies need a fundamental review and change. They should also change their style of government and be prepared to listen more to the “common sense” of the people in deciding on the future direction of Singapore.
Tan Kin Lian
www.tankinlian.blogspot.com
Thursday, May 03, 2018
ISEAS Talk - 14th General Election in Malaysia
I attended a full day talk conducted by ISEAS on the general election in Malaysia.
Here are my impressions of the presentations.
1. BN has a strong grassroots organisation; they are much better than the other parties.
2. BN still has strong support of the rural Malay vote.
3. They are likely to win Johore and Sarawak.
4. PH is a much weaker alliance compared to the previous election, due to the loss of PAS.
5. Dr. M party will not add much strength to PH, apart from Kedah.
6. The cost of living and GST are big issues.
7. The rural voters are not concerned about 1MDB, corruption and governance.
My assessment is that BN will win the general election. This may change if social media makes a big impact with the rural voters, but this is not likely to happen.
Here are my impressions of the presentations.
1. BN has a strong grassroots organisation; they are much better than the other parties.
2. BN still has strong support of the rural Malay vote.
3. They are likely to win Johore and Sarawak.
4. PH is a much weaker alliance compared to the previous election, due to the loss of PAS.
5. Dr. M party will not add much strength to PH, apart from Kedah.
6. The cost of living and GST are big issues.
7. The rural voters are not concerned about 1MDB, corruption and governance.
My assessment is that BN will win the general election. This may change if social media makes a big impact with the rural voters, but this is not likely to happen.
Friday, June 24, 2011
Contesting the Presidential Election
Some people commented in some blogs that it would have been better for me to participate in the general election, rather than the presidential election. I like to explain my decision.
I did not want to contest the general election as I did not like to spend time to run a town council, if I were elected. I was also not yet ready to join any of the political parties – until their leaders agreed to merge and build their membership base.
Initially, I did not want to contest the presidential election either. I changed my mind after receiving requests from many people to stand and offer them a chance to vote. (They said that I was one of the few non-PAP people that might be able to get the certificate of eligibility).
After Dr. Tan Cheng Bock expressed interest, I decided also to join in. My reasoning was that it would be difficult for the “powers” to disqualify both candidates but it would be easier for them to find the reason to disqualify a single candidate.
I acknowledge that I do not have the same “class” or “charisma” as Dr. Tony Tan. If that is what the people of Singapore wants, I would be quite happy to lose the election.
I can only offer to the people the chance to vote for a candidate who is willing to listen to the people and reflect their aspirations, have an independent approach to the decisions that have to be made by the President’s office (i.e. does not need to be confrontational to the Government) and able to use my knowledge to safeguard their CPF money and the national reserves.
Some people may prefer some other candidates and not me, but that is all right. There is really no need for them to insult me or smears my character or reputation. (I refer to defamatory remarks and smears posted against me in some blogs or websites or being circulated by e-mail. I hope that right minded people will stop these bad behavior.)
Tan Kin Lian
Tuesday, January 15, 2019
Will the swing against PAP be as high as 22%?
Can the swing against the PAP be as high as 22% at the next general election?
Most people will think that this is quite unlikely.
I hold a different view. Here are my reasons:
The PAP was able to get a high vote in 2015 due to the public appreciation toward the PAP for the contribution of Mr. Lee Kuan Yew who had died earlier in the year.
I estimate that the support would have been 10%.
I expect that this swing would be totally reversed at the next general election. The public dispute between the Lee siblings, i.e. LKY's children, would certainly have demolished all the goodwill that was given to the PAP and PM Lee.
Several factors would have cause much unhappiness against the PAP.
This webpage shows the contribution of the various factors, such as the high cost of living, high salary of ministers, no value on expiry of HDB 99 year lease, unhappiness over the reserved president, and insecurity of jobs.
https://tklcloud.com/Democracy/swing.aspx
The percentage swing contributed by each factor is shown in this page, based on the votes by the participants.
It is likely that there will be double counting of the factors. If we were to take half of the total for first five factors, we will get an additional swing of 12.6%. Together with the loss of 10%, the total would be 22.6%.
However, there were will be several factors in favor of the PAP - the support of new citizens and the celebrations and goodies to be handed out before the general election.
I suspect that the effect of new citizens and the impact of the goodies are over-exaggerated. They would probably have been accounted for in the previous general elections.
The new citizens would probably feel the same pressure as the old citizens after living in Singapore for five years. So, the PAP will have to count on the support of voters that became new citizens in recent years.
My own guess is that the swing against the PAP would be between 15% and 20%, but it could overshoot to reach the 22%. What is your guess?
Most people will think that this is quite unlikely.
I hold a different view. Here are my reasons:
The PAP was able to get a high vote in 2015 due to the public appreciation toward the PAP for the contribution of Mr. Lee Kuan Yew who had died earlier in the year.
I estimate that the support would have been 10%.
I expect that this swing would be totally reversed at the next general election. The public dispute between the Lee siblings, i.e. LKY's children, would certainly have demolished all the goodwill that was given to the PAP and PM Lee.
Several factors would have cause much unhappiness against the PAP.
This webpage shows the contribution of the various factors, such as the high cost of living, high salary of ministers, no value on expiry of HDB 99 year lease, unhappiness over the reserved president, and insecurity of jobs.
https://tklcloud.com/Democracy/swing.aspx
The percentage swing contributed by each factor is shown in this page, based on the votes by the participants.
It is likely that there will be double counting of the factors. If we were to take half of the total for first five factors, we will get an additional swing of 12.6%. Together with the loss of 10%, the total would be 22.6%.
However, there were will be several factors in favor of the PAP - the support of new citizens and the celebrations and goodies to be handed out before the general election.
I suspect that the effect of new citizens and the impact of the goodies are over-exaggerated. They would probably have been accounted for in the previous general elections.
The new citizens would probably feel the same pressure as the old citizens after living in Singapore for five years. So, the PAP will have to count on the support of voters that became new citizens in recent years.
My own guess is that the swing against the PAP would be between 15% and 20%, but it could overshoot to reach the 22%. What is your guess?
Sunday, March 27, 2016
Voting in the US election
The Democratic primary election in Arizona was a disaster. Some voters had to wait in line for 5 hours before they are allowed to vote. Many gave up due to the long queue. There were also disputes regarding who were eligible to vote. On the other hand, many people were allowed to vote early by sending in postal votes.
These situations raise some interesting questions:
a) How do the election commission check on the authenticity of the postal votes?
b) Was it possible for another person to steal the voting paper and submit an unauthorized vote?
c) How do the election commission check that the same voter did not submit more than one vote by using duplicate ballot papers?
d) For people who vote in person, there has to be a way to verify who is eligible to vote and that this person did not vote many times?
The big question is - why does the election commission not move to the world of the Internet? This is how the election process can be managed.
1) All eligible voters are registered in a big database with their social security ID and the electoral district that they belong to.
2) They are given a unique password.
3) They sign in with their social security ID and password and submit their vote. They are allowed to vote at any time within the election period. It could be over several days.
4) Those who forget their password can visit any election center with their identification. The voting official can verify their identity and issue them with replacement passwords that they can use to vote.
5) If any person found that another person has stolen his identity and submitted a vote, the earlier vote can be deleted and a new vote entered.
6) The system can have safeguards to prevent unauthorized changes to the votes in the database.
With such a system in place, it is possible to count the votes quite quickly. It is also possible to have votes for many positions on the general election day, e.g. to vote for the President, members of Congress, state governors, members of state congress etc. The counting will be accurate and fast.
My question - why was the election commission not using the Internet system?
These situations raise some interesting questions:
a) How do the election commission check on the authenticity of the postal votes?
b) Was it possible for another person to steal the voting paper and submit an unauthorized vote?
c) How do the election commission check that the same voter did not submit more than one vote by using duplicate ballot papers?
d) For people who vote in person, there has to be a way to verify who is eligible to vote and that this person did not vote many times?
The big question is - why does the election commission not move to the world of the Internet? This is how the election process can be managed.
1) All eligible voters are registered in a big database with their social security ID and the electoral district that they belong to.
2) They are given a unique password.
3) They sign in with their social security ID and password and submit their vote. They are allowed to vote at any time within the election period. It could be over several days.
4) Those who forget their password can visit any election center with their identification. The voting official can verify their identity and issue them with replacement passwords that they can use to vote.
5) If any person found that another person has stolen his identity and submitted a vote, the earlier vote can be deleted and a new vote entered.
6) The system can have safeguards to prevent unauthorized changes to the votes in the database.
With such a system in place, it is possible to count the votes quite quickly. It is also possible to have votes for many positions on the general election day, e.g. to vote for the President, members of Congress, state governors, members of state congress etc. The counting will be accurate and fast.
My question - why was the election commission not using the Internet system?
Saturday, June 19, 2010
Voting swing at next general election
I wish to make a bold forecast of the swing against the PAP at the next general election.
In several recent surveys in my blog, the swing is around 50%. Nearly 90% of respondents said that they would vote for another party, compared to 35% at the last general election.
However, my blog tends to attract the people who are unhappy with the Government, i.e. those who lost money on the structuerd notes or are unemployed. So, there is a bias and their results do not represent the general population.
My bold forecast is that the swing will be 15%, after discounting the bias. This will bring down the votes for the PAP from 65% to around 50%. We can expect the next Parliament to have a larger representation from the other political parties.
This will lead to a "more accountable Parliament" with members elected to reflect the views and wishes of the people. It will be a better outcome for the future of Singapore.
Tan Kin Lian
In several recent surveys in my blog, the swing is around 50%. Nearly 90% of respondents said that they would vote for another party, compared to 35% at the last general election.
However, my blog tends to attract the people who are unhappy with the Government, i.e. those who lost money on the structuerd notes or are unemployed. So, there is a bias and their results do not represent the general population.
My bold forecast is that the swing will be 15%, after discounting the bias. This will bring down the votes for the PAP from 65% to around 50%. We can expect the next Parliament to have a larger representation from the other political parties.
This will lead to a "more accountable Parliament" with members elected to reflect the views and wishes of the people. It will be a better outcome for the future of Singapore.
Tan Kin Lian
Friday, March 20, 2020
Reckless to hold an early general election in the midst of the epidemic
The govt minister said that the corona virus is likely to be around for more than a year, so if the general election is delayed until April 2021, the voters will still be exposed to the risk of infection.
They use this argument to justify holding the election early, maybe within the next two months.
I find this reasoning to be ridiculous.
Many people are worried about the risk of infection during the election campaign and voting day.
Why take this risk, when we can wait for a better time within the next 12 months. By that time, a vaccine or cure could have been found for the virus. Maybe, by then, the virus would have been better contained or largely eliminated.
If the govt decide to call an early election, they are probably taking advantage of the fear and uncertainty to get more votes from the people. In doing so, they will be gambling with the lives of the voters.
I hope that the voters will see through the deception and deliver a shock result to the PAP. See the poem below.
They use this argument to justify holding the election early, maybe within the next two months.
I find this reasoning to be ridiculous.
Many people are worried about the risk of infection during the election campaign and voting day.
Why take this risk, when we can wait for a better time within the next 12 months. By that time, a vaccine or cure could have been found for the virus. Maybe, by then, the virus would have been better contained or largely eliminated.
If the govt decide to call an early election, they are probably taking advantage of the fear and uncertainty to get more votes from the people. In doing so, they will be gambling with the lives of the voters.
I hope that the voters will see through the deception and deliver a shock result to the PAP. See the poem below.
Monday, March 21, 2016
What will it take for Chee Soon Juan to win Bukit Batok?
At the general election in 2015, the Peoples Action Party won 73% of the votes in Bukit Batok constituency.
The by-election in the constituency will see a contest between the PAP candidate and the Singapore Democratic Party candidate, Dr. Chee Soon Juan.
Will Dr Chee be able to get a swing of 23%, i.e. get 23% of the voters to change their mind and vote for the SDP?
At the Punggol East by-election, the Workers Party candidate, Lee Li Lian achieved a swing of 13.5% to win the by-election against a strong PAP candidate, Dr. Koh Poh Boon.
Will Dr. Chee be able to achieve a swing of 23% against the PAP candidate? It will be difficult but worth a try. As the 2015 general election gave more votes to the PAP that expected, some of these bonus votes may swing around to the opposition this time.
Monday, December 03, 2018
Simulation of next general election
I expect a swing of 15% to 20% against the PAP at the next general election, due to several factors.
Click on these links to see the results of the simulation.
15% swing
http://tklcloud.com/Election/const2.aspx?id=1748
20% swing
http://tklcloud.com/Election/const2.aspx?id=1749
The actual seats won by the non PAP parties may change, due to realignment of the parties, but the seats won by the PAP is likely to be quite stable.
You can carry out your own simulation here:
http://tklcloud.com/Election/const.aspx
Note - the results of the simulation for the same swing percentage by differ due to a random factor built into the simulation. You can try the same swing a few times and see how the results may differ. The difference will be small.
Click on these links to see the results of the simulation.
15% swing
http://tklcloud.com/Election/const2.aspx?id=1748
20% swing
http://tklcloud.com/Election/const2.aspx?id=1749
The actual seats won by the non PAP parties may change, due to realignment of the parties, but the seats won by the PAP is likely to be quite stable.
You can carry out your own simulation here:
http://tklcloud.com/Election/const.aspx
Note - the results of the simulation for the same swing percentage by differ due to a random factor built into the simulation. You can try the same swing a few times and see how the results may differ. The difference will be small.
Monday, November 08, 2010
General Election in Singapore - latest news from the Internet
Visit the General Election Portal to read about the latest views in the Internet on the coming general election in Singapore..
Friday, April 26, 2019
Indonesian general election 2019
Here are some interesting facts about the 2019 general election in Indonesia and my suggestions on how it can be carried out more efficiently and the official preliminary results announced within 3 days.
https://tankinlian.com/ArticleDisplay.aspx?ID=1506&Name=General-election-in-Indonesia&View=A
https://tankinlian.com/ArticleDisplay.aspx?ID=1506&Name=General-election-in-Indonesia&View=A
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Political parties and general election
What are the political parties in Singapore doing to prepare for the general election? Go to General Election Portal and see a list of articles. They are quite active!
Sunday, October 31, 2010
Singapore General Election Portal - the secret on how it is maintained
Dear Mr. Tan,
How do you manage to put up the interesting articles in the General Election Portal? Although I am able to find the same articles by reading all the blog feeds, it is useful to go to your portal as you have made a good summary of the important articles. Saves me the time of reading through so many feeds.
REPLY
I am fortunate to have the assistance of Gerald. He searches all the feeds every morning and extracts the articles that are relevant to my portal and my blog. He also summarizes the articles for me. It is easy for me to post them in the portal. There is another person (CH) who helps me to manage the portal.
Bookmark this to keep abreast of the issues for the general election:
www.easyapps.sg/sgep/latest.aspx
How do you manage to put up the interesting articles in the General Election Portal? Although I am able to find the same articles by reading all the blog feeds, it is useful to go to your portal as you have made a good summary of the important articles. Saves me the time of reading through so many feeds.
REPLY
I am fortunate to have the assistance of Gerald. He searches all the feeds every morning and extracts the articles that are relevant to my portal and my blog. He also summarizes the articles for me. It is easy for me to post them in the portal. There is another person (CH) who helps me to manage the portal.
Bookmark this to keep abreast of the issues for the general election:
www.easyapps.sg/sgep/latest.aspx
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
Preparations for the General Election
Follow the preparations for the General Election by the various political parties and the political issues - Singapore General Election Portal.
Monday, October 28, 2019
My participation in the general election
This post is a private message to my friends who follow me on Facebook. I do not want it to be shared outside of this circle. Please observe its privacy.
Dear friends,
Many friends have asked me about my plans to contest the next general election and the party that I would join.
It is my personal desire to participate in the general election with any of the opposition parties that has similar goals to mine.
Read the full statement here:
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2106
Dear friends,
Many friends have asked me about my plans to contest the next general election and the party that I would join.
It is my personal desire to participate in the general election with any of the opposition parties that has similar goals to mine.
Read the full statement here:
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2106
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