Tan Kin Lian's Blog: Voting swing at next general election

Saturday, June 19, 2010

Voting swing at next general election

I wish to make a bold forecast of the swing against the PAP at the next general election.

In several recent surveys in my blog, the swing is around 50%. Nearly 90% of respondents said that they would vote for another party, compared to 35% at the last general election.

However, my blog tends to attract the people who are unhappy with the Government, i.e. those who lost money on the structuerd notes or are unemployed. So, there is a bias and their results do not represent the general population.

My bold forecast is that the swing will be 15%, after discounting the bias. This will bring down the votes for the PAP from 65% to around 50%. We can expect the next Parliament to have a larger representation from the other political parties.

This will lead to a "more accountable Parliament" with members elected to reflect the views and wishes of the people. It will be a better outcome for the future of Singapore.

Tan Kin Lian

39 comments:

Anonymous said...: Dear Mr Tan
Respectfully, Singaporeans have been forecasting PAP's downfall for a long time.

Your surveys and projections assumes that the election game remains unchanged.

A change in the rules can always obsolete your surveys. Past examples of rules change include GRCs; June 19, 2010 9:48 AM
C H Yak said...: On the conservative, I estimated from your survey that it would be easy for any reasonable opposition candidate to grab about 40%...provided there is no split votes. The opposition should avoid 3-corner fights.

This is consistent to factor in another 20% off your 50% optimistic estimate. Any opposition candidate should work hard to get another 10% to reach the 50% for a even fight. I believe this will also factor in the "last-minute" mentality to vote PAP if it does work again.

If it is truly optimistic on the ground, then the opposition candiadte will win about 60%. Pessimistic would be a 50-50 fight.

Recent "weird" events, almost like "Will of God" events, seem to sway votes away from the ruling party ... despite the publishing of both local and independent parties survey rankings to boost S'pore's image.; June 19, 2010 9:50 AM
michael said...: Whatever the outcome of the next General Election, I sincerely wish all the best for Singapore - both the government and the people trust each other and we can continue to work closely and strengthen our bonds. Frankly speaking, we can't afford to quarrel forever(the margins for Singapore to make stupid serious mistakes are small). All Singaporeans(including the political leaders) should learn to communicate at the feeling level, but NOT at the judgement level. So the better understanding can be reached. The above-mentioned is a birthday wish from a 60 years old heartlander.; June 19, 2010 10:04 AM
Anonymous said...: Financial product consumers will vote for opposition because MAS has taken a very long time to address some of the issues on mis-selling, misrepresentation, unethical insurance agents and their greed and useless products that are flooding the market.
Others like housing, employment, GST etc will swing the vote over to the opposition. Not that the opposition can address these issues but they will be votes of protest and unhappiness. If this message is not strong enough to get the ruling party concern then a change of govt is the answer.
Remember, it is NOT smart candidates that will eventually run the country but the civil servants who will be loyal to any party in power. The govt formulates policies based on the will of the people and the civil servants execute them.
So, it is alright to vote against them if they are sturborn; June 19, 2010 10:26 AM
Anonymous said...: In the prelude to almost every GE, ground's sentiments has always been resentment towards the ruling parties. But seriously, would having more opposition in parliment made a different? I personally felt that we need a stable political arena to make MNCs felt that their investments in S'pore are safe, thus keeping jobs. Seriously, I really do not want to have opposition in parliment just to have an oppositing voice (oppost for the sake of opposting)... Frankly, I also felt that the standard of living has really went up abit untolerable; but would having more opposition in parliment lower it down? I sincerely doubts so.; June 19, 2010 12:58 PM
Anonymous said...: I believe the percentage will remain about the same, ie there is no noticeable swing. This is based on talking to people both young and old and sounding out their views. The majority either feels the opposition is useless or they fear their vote can be traced.

My estimate is that the number of people who lost money and will vote differently probably not more than a few hundred.; June 19, 2010 2:05 PM
mr.udders said...: Suggest you create a survey that measures:

a. how many people voted for alternative parties/the PAP in 2006, and

b. how many people plan to vote for alternative parties/the PAP in the coming elections.

This data set might be more accurate in helping you forecast the results.; June 19, 2010 2:08 PM
Lye Khuen Way said...: Right on !- Anon 10:26am

The political masters do not execute the policies.
Alas, the ruling party had entrenched so much of their "values" that in Singapore it is Govt=PAP=Civil Service.
However, even if there is only a 15% swing from PAP, I bet the outcome will only be a better Singapore.
By the way, the older generation who have high regards for the 1st generation of PAP Leaders are in their 80's and many have passed on.; June 19, 2010 2:21 PM
symmetrix said...: I can agree with Mr Tan KL's forecast that sg can expect the next Parliament to have a larger representation from the other political parties. But I disagree that the % swing against the PAP can be as high as 15%.

True, there are many bloggers who have gripes against the PAP, but they are the minority. The majority of voters own HDB flats and do not want to see their value drop. Others are concerned that their flats will be upgraded last. The HDB is a powerful tool for the govt to use, and it has used it before. Then, there are others who are plain apathetic and will go with the flow. The govt will also have some Aces and Jokers (pun not intended) up its sleeves which it will throw at the last moment to sway the voters in its favour.

NOBODY wants to see the PAP out of power at this juncture. Like them or loathe them, they are the best rulers at this point in time. However ALL want to see more non-PAP men in parliament, to represent their and alternative views. Once the non-PAP candidates have proven their mettle (say in 1 or 2 terms) we can actively consider them as an alternative govt. For the next election it would be good if the PAP gets < 2/3 majority. Then, it will not be able to make constitutional changes unilaterally without debating proposals thoroughly in parliament.

I am not a gambling man by nature but am prepared to place this friendly wager of a paltry $10 as follows:-
*Outcome 1 - If PAP secures >= 60% of the votes, then I win.
*Outcome 2 - If PAP secures < 60% of the votes, then I lose.

Someone, prove me wrong.

I am confident of Outcome 1 happening. So, on the flwg Sunday morning, I shall buy breakfast for us using my winning ticket.; June 19, 2010 3:12 PM
Vincent said...: Dear Mr Tan

I do not belong to your so called majority (lost money in structured product or unemployed). However if I have a chance to vote in the coming election, I will opt for the opposition. This is despite I used to be a staunch PAP supporter.

I feel that this govt is slowly losing touch with the people with their high handed policy. If you notice nowadays, most of their policies are like heads they win and tail you lose. Despite being in the middle income group, I dread to think about:

1) When is my retirement days and when will I see my CPF money?
2) Is my job secured? How can I compete under the so call cheaper, better and faster? Will I be forced out the labour market by the increasing number of foreigners here. I do not feel I am secured under the current labour law that mostly side the capitalist.
3) How is my 2 year son going to compete in this ultra-competitive schooling environment? When he comes out to work, will he face the same job pressure as me?
4) How am I going to cope with the rising cost of living with the same salary year after year? Will I have the chance to give myself and my family a better home under this forever rising home price?
5) I dread to see my son going to NS to protect the 40% foreigners here who are mostly free loading and do not add value to our country.
6) I am feeling more and more like a foreigner in my own country. Sometimes I feel that this place is simply over crowded. Why must have a 6.5 million population when have 2.5 million population a decade ago is just fine? Do we really need so many people?
7) I don't believe I should pay millions of dollars to those ministers who also cannot solve the current problems. If that is case, I rather opt for a "cheaper, better and faster" one from the opposition instead (well hopefully).; June 19, 2010 3:16 PM
Anonymous said...: I think the miw is aware of the possiblility of a large votes swing to the opposition parties that's why they are increasing the new citizens intake in large numbers in double quick time.

Merlion; June 19, 2010 4:09 PM
Anonymous said...: Actually I feel the swing is nearer to 10% due to cowardice. Many people do not act on what they say due to unfound fear. To be fearful in their own home country is sad.

Mr Tan, I urged you to consider offering yourself as an alternative candidate. No point spending your golden years writing a blog like that, it will not be in history and will be quickly forgotten.

I feel most Singaporeans have a very good opinion of you, more so than most opposition candidates. If you start gathering a hardcore of volunteers and helpers for training and standby, I am sure the momentum will start.; June 19, 2010 4:09 PM
Anonymous said...: I hope your bold forecast is right Mr TKL. Also one commentator above said - 'assuming the election game remains unchanged'.; June 19, 2010 6:36 PM
Anonymous said...: Rex comments on anon. 12.58's post.

You, (the writer of 12.58 post), have presented an all too common viewpoint blindly supporting an element for historical reasons.

Let me try to demolish your mindset systematically.

Point No. 1
"Will more opposition in parliment made a difference?"
Answer No. 1
Good things take time. There will be no significant difference at first. When your son started his first job fresh from school, do you think he was firm and steady? Give the kiddo a chance and encouragement. Human beings learn if given the encouragement. Today, there are so many discouragements and slander going on against anyone who opposes the status quo. The environment can change but it will take some years - with the right people. Internet has changed many things. I am now more aware that there are in fact, many intelligent, sensible, patriotic, Singpaoreans. They are everywhere. When the environment is ripe, don't worry they will come out, and bear fruit. It is a safe risk, unlike the days before internet. Knowledge is power, with internet, PAP is no longer the masterkey holder of knowledge anymore. The people has the power.

Point No. 2.
... MNCs need to feel that their investments in S'pore are safe, thus keeping jobs.
Answer No.2.
Long ago, your argument works. Today, we are already not keeping jobs, with the widespread displacement of locals in preference for anything cheaper. What is the meaning of what you mumbled, "keeping jobs"? IT has lost its meaning already. As for MNC's they see Singapore's position as strategic, some MNC's may go but others will come. The infrasctructure is already established and will remain. Our airports, our Internet, our civil service, our excellent flood control network (ahem.), remains intact and will not shut down if the billion dollar MIWs are booted out.

Point No. 3
...do not want to have opposition in parliment just to have an oppositing voice)...
Answer No. 3.
If the PAP had done everything correctly, your point is acceptable. What the heck we want an oppostion for? However, in the last five to ten years, PAP has committed numerous unpardonable sins. (my greatest unhappiness is the wreckless and irreversible increase of population to 5 million which places stress, competition beyond the comfort and long term sustainabality of this tiny land). Sins must be punished. IF you continue to vote PAP, you will be deemed to fully support them, statistically. IT gives them the mandate to continue the style they are used to. All patriotic Singaporeans have a duty to strip them of this mandate, if you do not condone their acts.

Point No. 4.
...the standard of living has really went up abit untolerable; but would having more opposition in parliment lower it down?
Answer No. 4
And why not? The cost of living is controlled in the twinkling of an eye. Overnight the call rates to malaysia can drop by 30%. Election time coming so PAP waves its magic wand last week. There are many more such magic wands, if only the oppostion can lay its hands on them!!! If nobody questions the system, then you are giving them the mandate to continue the same style.

Vote the oppostion, there is some chance. Don't vote the oppostion, there is ZERO chance to improve your lives. There is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to lose.

Finally, do remember No. 1 and No. 2 in MIW is the only thread holding this land together. All the rest of the carry ball ministers, are they capable? The investors are more frightened than you if No. 1 and No. 2 disappears, there is chaos within, and there is no sensible opposition to check and audit the system. SINGAPOREANS must prepare for the future, NOW, ie. the eventual but impending disappearance of No. 1 and No.2.

Get real!. Bite the bullet. Just do it! NOW!

rex; June 19, 2010 8:46 PM
Anonymous said...: June 19, 2010 3:16 PM

Adding on point 6, why the sudden huge injection of population now? Are the current working population becoming old and useless overnight? If low birth rate is of concern, the concern is only at later years. The huge increase is almost 50%.; June 19, 2010 9:37 PM
Anonymous said...: almost all i have ask would want more opposition voices in parliment, but most of them would not an opposition MP in their own ward. Why? The reason is simple - HDB value price, and that's related to the cleanliness of the estate, upgrading priority, etc. Remember Nee Soon, Bukit Gombak, Choa Chu Kang? And the vast difference between Potong Pasir, and Hougang?; June 19, 2010 11:16 PM
Anonymous said...: Actually we do not want the PAP to lose in the election, as their influence are too entrenched in Singapore society, and we think the opposition is still not up to the mark yet.
But we feel the Lee family should give way to the other members of the PAP, MM Lee is too old to make decisions for Singapore's future, as he is not mentally agile as before, as seen in the losses of GIC he helmed. PM Lee is not too healthy, and looks too weak to lead PAP. And his wife Ms Ho is definitely a liability to Temasek,
as she is emotionally unsuitable for fund management, she is totally
unsuitable for the job, so why still cling to it, it is better to find someone that is not connected to the Lee family to head Temasek, perhaps a PAP member other than a Lee.
We are not happy only in one aspect, it is so obvious the PAP Govt do not work indepentently of MM Lee, one word from the MM, every
PAP minister has to toe his line.
Where is the so-called passing on the baton to the younger members of the PAP. MM Lee still call the shots. This is no good for the Party, and no good for the people of Singapore. The Party needs real
new blood, not puppets and actors on the political stage.
New blood entirely with real control will rejuvenate Singapore, as new broom sweeps clean, and is crucial for our survival in this competitive world.; June 19, 2010 11:39 PM
Anonymous said...: I feel it in my bones.

There will be some New Singapore shares issued soon.

Perhaps a paltry $500, so that we can afford to go to Batam for a good time before polling day.

It's a cheap, good and fast method to uh engage the Singapore electorate.; June 20, 2010 1:11 AM
J said...: When they were comfortably ahead, they could come up with the speaker's corner. Now that it is clear that they are not necessarily ahead, it is hard to predict what they will do.

It looks like god is doing almost everything it could to topple the PAP. Wong Kan Seng (Mas Selamat, MRT) and Yacob Ibrahim (Once in 50 year flood, Orchard flood) now have at least two strikes against them. Mah Bow Tan is under a lot of heat for HDB woes. The losses in Temasek have been enormous. Many people lost money to irresponsibility of DBS, a GLC. The coming to power of the internet has made people aware that the current MPs are incompetent. Short of the passing away of a very senior minister, the current events can't get any worse.

During this time, the PAP also created a huge immigration problem, as well as many other problems.; June 20, 2010 8:32 AM
Anonymous said...: he reason is simple - HDB value price, and that's related to the cleanliness of the estate, upgrading priority, etc. Remember Nee Soon, Bukit Gombak, Choa Chu Kang? And the vast difference between Potong Pasir, and Hougang?

This is PAP-perpetuated myth more than anything else. Why buy Yishun or Sengkang HDB if an Opposition win means cheaper HDBs at Toa Payoh, Clementi, or Bedok? Prices today are due to location location location, not which MP is running it. And if prices at these better locales do drop the PRs will zoom in to snatch them up anyway even if Sinkies shun these estates. So don't be fooled by the fear mongering.; June 20, 2010 9:56 AM
Anonymous said...: June 19, 2010 11:39 PM

I think it is wishful thinking. Do you consider how a dictator think? Or how a robber think?

When the robber has entered the house, you said why dont you just take that pile of old newspapers and leave everything else alone.

And worse, for 50 years you have been telling the robber, I will not report to police, you may also cut the phone line, gag me and tie me up. I absolutely trust you will take only the old newspapers.

History has shown that it is extremely difficult to get rid of a dictator. bloodshed.; June 20, 2010 2:33 PM
Anonymous said...: """MNCs need to feel that their investments in S'pore are safe, thus keeping jobs."""

Keeping jobs is no longer that meaningful when many people could not find proper, meaningful jobs.
What is there to loss when yr job is not secure, and yr rice bowl can be broken easily?; June 20, 2010 3:30 PM
J said...: I just want to say that Rex has written a great post.

For points 1 and 3 especially, I think reducing the proportion of PAP MPs to below 2/3 will encourage meaningful debates on issues, and the PAP cannot amend the constitution at will anymore.; June 20, 2010 6:39 PM
Anonymous said...: MRTs & Buses are packed like sardines, roads are clogged with cars.Cost of living has shot up!
Properties are at dizzy heights,
The weather is getting hotter and more unbearable, jobs are getting more insecure these days and achieving the status as one of the most expensive cities to live!
No thanks to changes!; June 20, 2010 8:37 PM
Anonymous said...: To Rex,

Thanks for taking time to rebut anon-12.58's post. I agree with you completely. I believe that the writer was sincere. He came across to me as one of the many who have been brainwashed by PAP over the years. More and more people no longer believe in PAP's propaganda. I hope the writer would get a chance to read your comments so that he could also see things from a different perspective. If he disagrees with you, I hope he would offer his thoughts/believes further so that we too can see more on both sides of the arguments.

Thanks,

KK; June 20, 2010 10:00 PM
Anonymous said...: Just what do we have to lose anyway?

a. Your job?
Lots of PMETs over 40 years old already lost jobs and are still unemployed.

b. Value of your HDB flat?
You can only own one flat. You have 2 children. They need 2 flats for their families. So you make money on your one expensive flat. Your 2 kids lose out by paying for two expensive flats.

By the way, you don't own your HDB flat. You are just own the lease on your HDB flat. HDB is the real owner. In other words, you are a landless peasant just like your forefathers in China and India from where you come from.

c. Security in your old age?
When you grow old, you can look forward to salary cuts even as your health bill increases.; June 20, 2010 11:09 PM
Singaporean said...: The Grim Reaper holds the wild card.

If the Reaper decides to take a 87 yr old man on the final trip, the whole political scene changes overnight.; June 21, 2010 12:46 PM
Anonymous said...: I think Mr Tan had forgotten one thing. Many who bought these failed financial products are already voting for the opposition in the past like me, so there will be no swing of voters for these category of workers.; June 21, 2010 12:52 PM
Anonymous said...: """When you grow old, you can look forward to salary cuts even as your health bill increases."""

When u get old, there is simply no or very few jobs for you. There is "no salary" to be cut.

Talkig about security, it is slowly becoming a "dangerous" place, and there is not much security when u walk on the road. There are just too many F workers / foreigners around.
Do u feel safe anymore?; June 21, 2010 12:54 PM
Anonymous said...: to me, there is a pre-requisite that must be satisfied, which is that the opposition must field candidates so that people "qualify" to vote.

the elections is pointless if walkovers are prevalent, and most people don't get to vote.

it all boils down to who those who get to vote, ends up voting for.

another point I would like to make is that i'm only in my early 30s and am already unemployed for a year. it's THAT difficult to find a job already.

Opposition or not, there must be policies and regulations to prevent the government from getting out of hand. Basically we need checks and balances, and ensure that bodies that are assigned the task of monitoring are not just another subsidiary of the organization that it's checking against.

There is too much bureaucracy already set up for the facade of executing these "checks and balances" where there are none. Forms and procedures are in place to ensure accountability, however, if these cuckoo figures are not checked and accounted for, they are but ornamental paperwork to create jobs for those who accept and agree with the system, i.e. the yes men.; June 21, 2010 1:07 PM
Alan Wong said...: Is it any wonder that our PAP Ministers and MPs have been treating the new citizens (or lessers mortals) with such kindness of late ?

And it also makes one wonder what the hell would the normally money-faced PAP want to spend millions in welcoming them if they don't harbour some kind of intention ?

Of course it all boils down to the ballot box vote at the end of the day. What integration are they talking about ? It's just bullshit. When election is over, the true colours will be revealed.

We are so used to PAP resorting to such underhand tactics. In fact our PM has openly admitted to fixing the opposition. They are so pathetic, just beyond redemption !; June 21, 2010 3:50 PM
Anonymous said...: Dear Mr Tan
Have yet to see a unified opposition, without which it will be difficult for them to wing in coming GE.
You just need a 'crown' to 'screw' the opposition up. Sorry about my language used; June 21, 2010 4:49 PM
Anonymous said...: It is probably not realistic for Oppo to think of winning and form government. But it would be great to kick some deadwood out. Off the hat I would love to see these gone for good

WKS
Sham
Vivian
Teo Ser Luc
Kaw
Boy George
Grace fool
Lim Pee Hwa
Lu Tuck You
Chan su Sen
Seng Han Dong
Gangster Ah Heng
Daddy of Elite Girl
All those in Drew and Nipple
The Hen
Zaki Mohd
Lee Yi Shan
Josephine teo
Lemon Lim
Lim Sia Suay
C desouza
Ang Mon Seng
Yakult
Heng Chee How
Tartman
Charles Chong
M Palmer
Indranee
Bay Yum Keng
Lim HK
Iswaran
Cedric Foo
LKY
GCT
Irene Ng
Marble Tan
Lateef
Seah Kian Png
Lim Bow Chuan
Teo Ho Ping
Teo Chi Hen; June 21, 2010 11:49 PM
Anonymous said...: To Rex:

A senior citizen thanks you for your rebuttal.

Thank you.; June 22, 2010 1:44 PM
Anonymous said...: Hey VS Lingam,

I am willing to take the Outcome 2 - If PAP secures < 60% of the votes but on one condition that there is no walkover in the next GE.

If there is no walkover and PAP gets >=60% then I buy you breakfast cap at SGD$10. But if there is no walkover and PAP gets <60% you don't have to buy me breakfast because such a result is good enough to keep me happy for the next 5 years.

Merlion; June 22, 2010 2:37 PM
symmetrix said...: Howdy Merlion,

I'm beginning to like your style.

I can agree with you that if every seat is contested, then PAP can end up with < 60% of the votes. However, in all reality, I think that there will be at least some PAP walkover seats. The opposition is not yet ready to stand in every constituency, not with the current grapevine talk that elections may be held during this Sep school break.

Perhaps we can review the friendly betting stakes after Nomination Day.; June 22, 2010 3:34 PM
Al said...: Why employed so many foreign workers and resulted in very low productivity? Some men (PAP) made the systems. Other men (like construction companies) know how to beat the system. These companies bosses know how to do things the EASY way and still make GOOD profits. In the long run this is bad for the country.; June 23, 2010 1:42 PM
Anonymous said...: Hi Al, this is because nowadays you have highly paid scholars, mandarins and civil servants who are not in touch with the ground, starting right from the ministers. As Ngiam Tong Dow has pointed out years ago, the system is breeding paper pushers but not do-ers and supervisors. The PUB blunder is the latest example of this problem. They only inspect the drainage at most 4 times a year(!), anyone with common sense will know this is severely lacking. Today's Singapore is fast losing the kind of efficiency, QC, that it is famed for not too long ago.; June 23, 2010 4:54 PM
Anonymous said...: rex comments on 4.54 pm post as follows,

Indeed, Singapore is losing its well known efficiency.
-International law association sue the MBS for a botched job, air con not working, p.a. system cock-up
-orchard flo0d
- mas selamat escape
- break in at the smrt
- minibonds
- no end to the list.

Not so long ago, we always laugh at Malaysia for not being able to get things right. We even say Malaysian Airline System is Mana Ada System... It is a shame. Today Singapore is like Malaysia in the 70's. Many things don't work, the leaders are cowards and take cover play tai-chi, and to add insult to injury, they frequently take pot shots blame it on the citizens, after that take cover don't want to engage in further debate.

The only thing guaranteed still working very well is the ver smooth outrageous flow of tremendous volume of cash each month to people who don't deserve them.

rex; June 23, 2010 8:31 PM

Saturday, June 19, 2010

Voting swing at next general election

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