Tan Kin Lian's Blog: Blogs and ballot box

Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Blogs and ballot box

Question: Voters may complain on many issues but when they are at the ballot box, they will vote for stability and economic progress. Do you agree? (The survey is now closed).

Here is the final report based on 100 replies. The results are almost the same as the earlier report based on 50 replies.

The survey suggests a 37% swing against the PAP but this is from a group that is largely unhappy with the PAP. If this is extrapolated to the general population, the swing could be (just my guess) between 10% to 15%.

14 comments:

Anonymous said...: Mr Tan, would you consider having one more option for question 3 "never voted in my life". Personally, I have never been able to cast a vote in any GE as it was always a walkover situation in my constituency. Thank you.; June 15, 2010 12:36 PM
mr.udders said...: Hi Kin Lian,

I wanted to leave a comment but I realised it was too long to be a comment.

Hence, I have responded to your post with a post of my own over here.; June 15, 2010 1:18 PM
Anonymous said...: Most people are selfish or self-centered -- it is built into our DNA from caveman times as a form of survival instinct. Those who didn't have this survival instinct tend to die out hundreds of thousands of years ago.

Hence as long as a person is employed, earning say at least $3+K/mth, comfortable, has a flat, and is not being constantly threatened with losing his job to some foreigners, most likely he'll just go with current govt. Coz all he wants is to maintain status quo.

People are only driven to change when it is either forced upon them, or when they have nothing to lose anymore -- when they experience major personal setbacks due to govt policies or actions, or they see their close relatives undergoing hardships etc.; June 15, 2010 2:57 PM
Anonymous said...: "Hence as long as a person is employed, earning say at least $3+K/mth, comfortable, has a flat, and is not being constantly threatened with losing his job to some foreigners, most likely he'll just go with current govt. Coz all he wants is to maintain status quo."

This kind of thinking just shows how stupid Singaporeans have become. He doesn't have to vote for the current govt to maintain status quo. The PAP will definitely win the election because there will be enough walkover to ensure that happens. The PAP can LOSE ALL the contested seats and they will still be in power.

In my opinion, it's better to have competition. If you have competition, people will work harder.; June 15, 2010 3:23 PM
C H Yak said...: Q
If this is extrapolated to the general population, the swing could be (just my guess) between 10% to 15%.
UQ

I estimated the same based on the other survey...about 11% actual swing...factoring in whatever to eliminate some bias.

To stand a chance need to swing another 10% considering no spilt or spoilt votes. Either side will get easily just 40%.; June 15, 2010 3:26 PM
Anonymous said...: If voting is to give a pass or fail for a government for its past performance, then it will not be surprise that PAP always get more than 2/3 of the votes and, i think, most people could accept that result. It is not appropriate to say those who have voted PAP are "stupid" and "self-centered" etc.

Perhaps, a fairer system is to allocate a percentage of seats (say 50%) base on the percentage of votes a party has received during the general election. With this system, we can do away the NMP, NCMP schemes. The new system is simpler and fairer. Many countries have this system and U.K. is supposed to implement it under the new government.

CCL; June 15, 2010 4:50 PM
Anonymous said...: "If voting is to give a pass or fail for a government for its past performance, then it will not be surprise that PAP always get more than 2/3 of the votes and, i think, most people could accept that result. It is not appropriate to say those who have voted PAP are "stupid" and "self-centered" etc."

People should learn how to vote for the future. What is in the past is in the past, never mind that the real person behind Singapore's economic success is actually GKS who has just passed away. The future doesn't look bright, the old man is already so old, his son is sick and understandably cannot take stress, his daughter-law can't manage money, the other ministers are just technocrats, if status quo remains, Singapore will be heading for big trouble.

In my opinion, PAP versus Opposition party is just an imaginary gulf, part of a divide and conquer strategy. The fact is that Singapore is so small, every minister if you take away their million dollar salary is cut down the same Singaporean, no different from any opposition member. If the election can nurture talented politicians, even if they are from the opposition, they can join the ruling party in the future as part of a coalition government.; June 15, 2010 5:16 PM
Anonymous said...: "In my opinion, PAP versus Opposition party is just an imaginary gulf, part of a divide and conquer strategy. The fact is that Singapore is so small, every minister if you take away their million dollar salary is cut down the same Singaporean, no different from any opposition member. If the election can nurture talented politicians, even if they are from the opposition, they can join the ruling party in the future as part of a coalition government."

Precisely because Singapore is so small, it is therefore much easier to govern and policies consequences can be observed quicker. It is therefore ideal for democratic rule where competing ideals can flourish tested out and fine tuned, instead of an authoritarian top down rule by iron fist that falsely claims stability as its core merit whilst attempting to sweep dissent and ill policy consequences under the carpet.

Was the future of Singapore even that bright with LKY and his mandarins around? So stop being deluded by the personality cult and thinking one man or cliche did so much good for Singapore.; June 15, 2010 6:08 PM
walkover voter said...: What do most Singaporeans want?

Peace,jobs,home,food and lots of freebies... throw in enough money for a car and holidays abroad.

That is what the majority wants.

The minority want the same too but because they are jobless, drawing a low pay, they cannot get what the majority wants.

This group wants to show annoyance and temper, they vote for alternatives. it will not matter to the PaP..

All this talk about cutting foreign workers..job re training will all fade away after elections are over. It will all bounce back.. with even more force! ( mark my words )

They are so familiar with the game and the psyche that they can do all this with one arm tied behind their backs.

One simple statement from MM or SM and the entire Pinnacle will cower under their beds and sheepishly obey... ( mark this too! )

They know Singaporeans are greedy for freebies... and once given.. like little children, they all go and play.. forgetting that the TV has been locked away for the next 5 years.. Ha! ha! ha!; June 15, 2010 7:08 PM
Anonymous said...: Fear of repercussion for voting opposition is 'real' no matter how mistaken it is.

Greed of the older folks in the population for token freebies is also a fact.

The business communities are 'bochap' (could not be bothered) about politics as making money is their sole intention, is also palpable.

And the political apathetic youngs(who will be voters) will be voting for whoever is the more convincing during the hustings.

All in all, the PAP will still be the victor albeit with a slightly reduced majority.; June 16, 2010 3:11 PM
Anonymous said...: I agreed the top leadership is hampered by old age, incurable illness, fund management incapability, and staffed with technocrats who just follow the book rules, rules that are grossly outdated and incapable of surviving in this fast-paced and highly competitive world.
It is also true that many Singaporeans in the past elections just grumbled and threw tantrums, and on the election day
still vote for the PAP.
But this time round it is a different story altogether, recent
policies have hurt us to the bones,
so hurtful that we are awakening to our political senses. Plus the forever reports of losses by our two SWFs, as if there is no end to the stupidity of the Board of Directors who okay such decisions, further stoke our anger.
And mind you we are faithful supporters of the PAP for decades.
This time we are really incensed.
Even our children are also incensed.; June 16, 2010 8:46 PM
Anonymous said...: It's been walkovers...thanks to GRCs....walk all over my face...; June 17, 2010 1:28 PM
Anonymous said...: I'm not in politics, but certain trends are tell-tale signs of people's unhappiness with the Gahmen by the choice of migration or relocation.

The silent majority will not fight but leave as the results of the many factors like overcrowding/FTs/
Inflated property prices/Job insecurity /Security Threats and concerns/rising cost of living/
space constraints and a host of other issues as part of my understanding and knowledge.

BTW what is the latest Migration figures and the number of Singaporeans abroad?

No doubt Singapore is still an attractive and liveable place that I call home.

Hopeless Retiree.; June 21, 2010 8:59 AM
Anonymous said...: Well if the PAP is fair and not scared of losing, they wont have all these lousy policies such as GRCs, ballot numbers, libel suits etc.The amount of opposition votes should warrant at least a few seats in parliament.

The leadership has groomed a lot of loyal, selfish and self-centred Singaporeans. Many well off will stay with PAP. For the average and low, they are already cornered, even if they elect PAP, they would continue to be depressed and further, so it is up to them to decide how much more they can tolerate before saying NO.; June 24, 2010 10:39 PM