Tan Kin Lian's Blog: Non-PAP politicians

Monday, June 14, 2010

Non-PAP politicians

I am responding to a suggestion by a commenter to create this survey on non-PAP politicians. Here is your chance to give your views. Survey is now closed. 100 responses were received within 8 hours!

UPDATE
Final results based on 100 respones.

10 comments:

Tan Kin Lian said...: This survey is attracting good participation. Here are the results for the first 34 replies.

http://docs.google.com/View?id=dcqjz7c8_319hgz38mhj; June 14, 2010 10:42 AM
C H Yak said...: From the 50 sample, I make a simple analysis.

The non-PAP politicians appear at election time + 8% For stability and a proven party 4% + A PAP candidate as they are competent and can serve the people better 4% = Do you trust them to look after your interest? 16% . Consistent.
16% will certainly vote PAP.

28% Vote for Change and 68% vote for accountability. Hence, this two will be influenced by SWING.

6&7 - to think that only 4% will vote for PAP is ridicous; better to follow the 34%in previous survey.

Depends on the candidate that stand in my constituency - 50-50 half may vote PAP and hal opposition.

Hence PAP likely to get 34+20= 54%opposition 56-(34-4)=26+20= 46%.(slightly better than my previous estimate).

To grab at least 10% SWING from PAP candidates is a must for a good fight.; June 14, 2010 1:04 PM
Anonymous said...: This survey can't represent the majority of Singaporean as most viewers in this blog are quite unsatify with the ruling party. Not all the voices are heared in this blog.; June 14, 2010 1:05 PM
Tan Kin Lian said...: To 105 PM

It is true that this survey represents a higher proportion of Singaporeans who are unhappy with the PAP and does not reflect the views of the general population. Although it is biased, the results are still quite telling - there must be a wide swing in sentiment against the PAP.

I hope that the PAP will take this message and take appropriate action to address the grievance of such a large proportion of people, although they represent a biased group.; June 14, 2010 5:56 PM
Anonymous said...: Anon 1.05pm is probably right. Also, the voices on the internet, although majority not pro-PAP, probably amounts to less than 33% of the populace.; June 14, 2010 6:54 PM
Anonymous said...: Dear Mr Tan
I respectfully have to disagree with your comment "I hope that the PAP will take this message and take appropriate action ..."

I sincerely hope that PAP will continue on with BAU (business as usual).

It's time Singaporeans grow up.
- what's good for PAP is not necessarily good for Singapore

- Singapore and PAP are moving and growing in separate directions.; June 14, 2010 7:36 PM
michael said...: Recently, visited New Zealand and found that despite high costs of living(they plan to increase the GST from 12.5% to 15% with effect from 1st October, 2010), the KIWI are generally happy with their Government on taking people's feedback seriously and implementing changes accordingly. Hope that our ruling PAP government will take steps to tone down considerably the GRC's concept and to allow better-balanced representative views(the real strong mandate) in the upcoming General Election. A well developed two-party system is good for both the country and the people as a whole in the long run. Singapore has come this far because both the Government and the People trust each other and we are able to work closely and effectively since 1965. Pray that such a strong bond will continue and even strengthen. The sooner we understand and realise it(our most valuable asset), the better for everybody in Singapore.; June 15, 2010 6:09 AM
Anonymous said...: Rex comments on Michael's post as follows,

Today in Singapore, it seems to me that the reality is that, the Govt does not trust the People; and likewise the People do not trust the Govt.

TRUST commences and is fostered only when there is a chance to Communicate.

Currently, the mainsream Media being a primary means of communication, is forced to report in one direction only. That the international ranking of our MSM slippled from already dismal 133 to 155th position, is testimony of this shameful situation for a "first world" country.

Currently the unofficial but obvious stance of the Govt to distance itself from new media, is exarcebating the mistrust between the People and Govt. The Govt is completely inept and managing new media. It is a grave mistake to continue pretending that new media is merely a source of rumours and mischievous anger-incited ideas.

For as long as the Govt pretends that Anonymous writers always spout nonsenses, and refuse to engage anyone without a real name, then this mistrust will always continue. Sometimes anonymous contributors speak more logic than well known high profile so-called high calibre, cabinet ministers who are at best propped up and molly cuddled by the System.

Unless Communication is given a free-flow this situation of achieving a "strong bond" envisaged by Michael above is destined to failure, in my opinion.

rex; June 15, 2010 8:00 AM
Tan Kin Lian said...: It is interesting to see that 61% of the responders prefer to have "an accountable Parliament with MPs that reflect the views of the people". This is a higher percentage than "stability" and "change".

I hope that all parties, the PAP and the other parties, will work towards this goal of "an accountable Parliament".; June 15, 2010 8:34 AM
C H Yak said...: Based on 100 samples, I re-do my analysis.

Part A

They are not competent (non-PAP) - 11%. Trust them? - 11%
Consistent.

After personal gains 7% + For stability and a proven party 4% = 11% consistent.

Part B

Item (6)

Vote for Change = Non-PAP = 35%
For more accountable Parlia = 61%, 50-50 to each side i.e. 30.5% (NB 39% gives benefit of the doubt, so Ok). Hence non PAP = 35+30.5= 65.5%, PAP = 4%+30.6%= 34.5% (OK considering previous survey by Mr Tan).

Item (7)

Non PAP (preference) - 57%. Swing = 65.5-57= 8.5%. PAP=34.5+8.5%= 43%

Item (4)
Sincere vs Competent (non-PAP)
93% sincere - 57% vote for non PAP = 36% think they non-PAP are incompetent.

Item (3)
Non PAP , no trust 11%, etc @11% see Part A above.

PAP 43% - 11 % = 32 % (Die-Hard supporters) even in very adverse ground. Swing 11%. 43% for PAP match my previous estimate (40%) for the most likely vote a non-PAP will get in a very pro PAP ground. To grab another 10% is crucial, say no spoilt votes. Also 32% match my take that 1/3 of total votes will always be for either PAP or non-PAP...or just 30% say there are spoilt votes.

For a more accountable Parliament of people elected to represent the people 61% - A non-PAP candidate as they are adequate and have a better feel for the people 57% = another 4% goes to PAP. Balance of 57% can go 50-50 either way...consistent.

Item (7)
100%-57%-11% [3%+4%+?5%] = 32%.[31%]
Depends on the candidate that stand in my constituency Actual % = 32%...why die-hard supporter if they don't indicate a positive vote for PAP..."Depend on the candidate will manifest into support for PAP???"

Even in a very adverse ground, and very pro-NON PAP ground as reprsented by this survey, about 32% or close to 1/3 will still vote PAP. Match Item (4) above ??? Conflict Item (2)-89%???

It would be quite easy to get 40% either side, perhaps based on 10 top hot issues raised in this blog...whether or not PAP can defend them. 10% swing is critical for zero-sum-game considering no spoilt votes.; June 15, 2010 10:23 AM