At the general election in 2015, the Peoples Action Party won 73% of the votes in Bukit Batok constituency.
The by-election in the constituency will see a contest between the PAP candidate and the Singapore Democratic Party candidate, Dr. Chee Soon Juan.
Will Dr Chee be able to get a swing of 23%, i.e. get 23% of the voters to change their mind and vote for the SDP?
At the Punggol East by-election, the Workers Party candidate, Lee Li Lian achieved a swing of 13.5% to win the by-election against a strong PAP candidate, Dr. Koh Poh Boon.
Will Dr. Chee be able to achieve a swing of 23% against the PAP candidate? It will be difficult but worth a try. As the 2015 general election gave more votes to the PAP that expected, some of these bonus votes may swing around to the opposition this time.