Monday, March 21, 2016

What will it take for Chee Soon Juan to win Bukit Batok?

At the general election in 2015, the Peoples Action Party won 73% of the votes in Bukit Batok constituency.

The by-election in the constituency will see a contest between the PAP candidate and the Singapore Democratic Party candidate, Dr. Chee Soon Juan.

Will Dr Chee be able to get a swing of 23%, i.e. get 23% of the voters to change their mind and vote for the SDP?

At the Punggol East by-election, the Workers Party candidate, Lee Li Lian achieved a swing of 13.5% to win the by-election against a strong PAP candidate, Dr. Koh Poh Boon.

Will Dr. Chee be able to achieve a swing of 23% against the PAP candidate? It will be difficult but worth a try. As the 2015 general election gave more votes to the PAP that expected, some of these bonus votes may swing around to the opposition this time.


Clarence Zeng said...

erm... 23% swing is not 11.5% of voters to change their minds.

David Ong vs Sada was 18,204 vs 6,585. David Ong leads Sada by 12,000 voters. So Sada needs 6,000 votes to even the share. 6,000 voters isn't 11.5% of the voters in Bukit Batok SMC.

11.5% of voters is about 2900 voters. it's still not enough to win. CSJ will need 23% of the voters to change their minds, which is ~6000 voters.

Kin Lian Tan said...

Hi, Clarence.
You are right.
I will edit my post.

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