Quora: Ask China to pay compensation for covid-19 losses

Yan Cao, former International Trade

Updated Apr 8

How likely is it Donald Trump will suggest China should pay compensation for the economic impact of covid-19 on the US and what would his reasoning be?

Yes,Trump should do that,why not?

But wait a minute, all of sudden I thought of some other countries. Vietnam might request America to pay 1000 billions of dollars for the lives Americans killed in Vietnam War. North Korea would increase that price tag to $10,000 billions. What about U.S. invasion of Iraq without finding Saddam’s MDW ? How many billions of dollars U.S. should pay to 151,000 people killed there ?

Cuba ,Venezuela and Iran would demand the U.S. to pay compensation for the huge loss caused by U.S. sanctions and embargo.

Hundreds of thousands of victims of 2009 H1N1 deadly flu might request for their compensation….,on and on ,never ending.

Covid-19 infection rate in the community

What is the infection rate of covid-19 in the community.

The WHO statistics showed that 94,796 tests were carried out in Singapore and 10,141 (10.7%) were found to be infected.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2894

Evil or stupid?

My friend made this observation.

He said. The ministers know that the corona virus is not lethal. But they ordered and extended the circuit breaker to scare the people that the virus is spreading fast and they are doing something to stop it.

They know that the new cases will drop by end of May, when they complete the testing of the foreign workers.

They will then announce that their circuit breaker had worked and the gullible people will be grateful for their excellent stewardship. Then they will call the general election - as the crisis is over.

TKL said - But they would have damaged the livelihood of a few hundred thousand people. It will take a long term for the damage to be repaired.

If this is the case, that the ministers had done an evil thing. I hope that the people will not be fooled by this deception.

So, the ministers are either evil or stupid. Which one?

Worrying about the unknown

Many people are worried about the covid-19 virus. They worry about the mutation of the virus. They worry about how long the virus can spread with people that have or do not have symptoms. They worry about the reinfection of the people who have been cured.

I ask them to look beyond the unknowns and focus on what is known and staring us in the eye.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2893

WOTC - Circuit breaker measures

Wisdom of the Crowd: 83% of the respondents said that the circuit breaker measures were necessary to stop the spread of the virus.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1951

WOTC - Relief measures

Wisdom of the Crowd: 89% of the respondents said that the three relief packages will be largely wasted and will not take care of the long term challenges facing the people.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1950

facebook.com/kinlian

I put up several posts every day in my Facebook page, which are not repeated in my Blog.

You can go to that page and Like it.

www.facebook.com/kinlian

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Was it wise to extend the circuit breaker measures?

2. Was the virus well contained?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

Testing for the covid-19 virus

Somebody asked the questions - why does it take so long to test the foreign workers? Why can't we test the locals also? Why do we restrict the testing to only people with symptoms? Can we test everybody?

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2892

Difficult to read the MOH website

I had a lot of trouble to search the MOH website for statistics on the covid-19 cases.

I finally arrived at this webpage
https://www.moh.gov.sg/covid-19

It was a confusing page. It provided links to the following:
 

a) situation report
b) Interactive situation report

The first link lead to another page that contains the daily report in PDF. I am not able to download or view the PDF.

The second link took a long time to load and presents graphs that are hard to follow.

It would be more useful if MOH would just give the tables in Excel or PDF that can be easily displayed or downloaded.

They should just follow what is done in the WHO website.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus

I cannot understand why MOH has to make life so difficult for the public.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2891

Take initiative according to the situation

I watched the performance of Phantom of the Opera on YouTube.
There was a segment that is relevant to Singapore and I like to share the moral of the incident.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2890

Elderly woman insist on eating at the hawker center

Someone shared a video about an elderly woman who insisted on eating at the table in the hawker center. The enforcement officer asked her to eat at home, but she refused. She shouted "You can fine me. I don't care".

Most people think that the woman was acting in an irresponsible manner. She refused to comply with the law and with the request of the enforcement officer.

I share a different perspective.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2889

Rationale of contact tracing

Contact tracing is effective when the number of infected persons is low, say less than say 500. It is possible to trace all the people who have been in contact with the infected person and ask them to go for testing or isolation.

It is difficult to carry out contact tracing when there is a large number of infected people in the community. Any new case could be infected by any of the previously infected person. It will be difficult to trace the source of contact. It might even give misleading results - for example X is thought to be infected by Y when he was actually infected by Z.

During the past few weeks, we read about several tens of new cases which could not be traced.  The cumulative total of untraced cases is not reported, but is estimated to number a few hundreds.

I think that it is time to abandon the contact tracing efforts, as it takes a lot of resources and do not provide any useful outcome. 

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2885

Quora: President Trump tweeted that 17,000 people died from Swine Flu under Obama. How does this compare to his Coronavirus numbers?

Someone replied:

First, the swine flu did not kill 17,000 people, as Trump maintained in his tweet. Nor did it kill 14,000, the figure he cited days earlier. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has estimated that H1N1 killed about 12,500 Americans between April 2009 and 2010, far fewer people than typically die each year from the flu. (Trump has gotten this figure right on other occasions.)

Second, the president’s characterization of the government’s response does not match reality. If anything, the response to H1N1 was swift in comparison to the current administration’s handling of the coronavirus.

“I assume what he’s trying to say is somehow he’s doing a much better job,” Kathleen Sebelius, secretary of health and human services under Obama, said in an interview Wednesday. “I just find that totally baffling. Anybody who looks at the comparisons very quickly understands that this is not the case.”

WOTC - Re-use face mask

Wisdom of the Crowd: 76% of the respondents said that it is safe to re-use a face mask subject to proper cleaning. 24% disagreed.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1948

WOTC - Factory to make face mask

Wisdom of the Crowd: 84% of the respondents said that Singapore should open our own factory to make face masks.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1949

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Did the government make the right judgment to call the circuit breaker?

2. What should the government do with the large infection of workers in dormitories?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

Do not falsely claim the support of others

I hosted a Zoom meeting to discuss the covid-19 crisis.

One participant said, something along this line - I, like the rest of you, do not trust the figures from China.

I send to him an email the following day. I said - I wish to be excluded from your statement. I do not share the same view as you, or other people, on this matter.

Lesson: It is a common practice, and a bad one, for a person to claim that he represents the views of other people, when he does not.

A person should stand on his own views, and not claim support from other people, which are not justified.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2881

Bad judgment by ministerial task force

The ministerial task force made a bad judgment. In early April, they panicked and decided to introduce the circuit breaker. They closed down most workplaces (except for the essential ones), food outlets and schools and ordered the people to stay at home for four weeks.

Why was this a bad judgment?
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2880

Carry out the covid test for all healthcare workers

I suggest that our health care workers should be given the covid-19 test. This is to protect their health and also the health of the patients.

In America, these workers were given priority for the covid tests, even though they were not symptomatic. All health care workers were tested.

I also suggest that the results of the tests should be published. We need to know how many workers were tested, how many were found to be infected and asymptomatic, and how many were symptomatic.

This results may give an indication of the actual spread of the virus in the general population. We can assume that the health care workers is a representative sample of the population.

With this data and results, we will be able to make better decisions on future containment measures.

Ministerial task force - I hope that you are listening.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2879

Lesson from New York

New York City is the epicenter of the covid-19 crisis in America. It had many cases and many deaths. The projections by the disease experts were dire. New York needs to have more treatment capacity. They need a thousand ventilators, maybe more.

A major project was undertaken to convert Javits Center in New York City, which was normally a convention center, into a treatment center with 1,700 beds.

The report below said that only 44 beds were used. The rest was left empty. It seemed that the projection was wrong.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2878

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Should Temasek Holdings publish the salaries of its top executives?

Vote in
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WOTC - Are medicated products from China defective?

Wisdom of the Crowd: 80% of the respondents said that some of the medical products from China are defective for acceptable reasons, but the media played up this issue. 20% said that the quality is generally poor.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1946

WOTC - Competent and dedicated ministers

Wisdom of the Crowd: 14% of the respondents said that we have capable and dedicated ministers in Singapore. 86% disagreee.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1947

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Should the circuit breaker be extended beyond 4 May?
2. Why is the death rate in Singapore so much lower than America and Europe?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

WOTC - How to deal with a shortage of ventilators

Wisdom of the Crowd: 68% of the respondents preferred to set a limit on the number of days that a patient can be placed on a ventilator to make them available to new patients, in case of a shortage of ventilators.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1945

WOTC - Is the government adopting the right approach?

Wisdom of the Crowd: 84% of the respondents said that the government is adopting the wrong approach in dealing with the covid-19 crisis.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1944

Should the circuit breaker be extended beyond 4 May?

In taking this decision, I suggest that the ministerial task force look at the new cases from the community only, and exclude the new cases from the worker dormitories.

The infected workers from the dormitories have been identified by comprehensive testing and were sent to hospital wards or isolation facilities. This would have prevented their infecting the wider community.

Currently, the new cases from the community number about 30 a day. It is a small number. It has been kept at a steady level. It is not increasing at an alarming rate.

Furthermore, from the experience of the dormitories, most of the infected cases were mild.

If the task force wish to extend the circuit breaker for a further period, they have to be mindful of the cost to the government and the additional cost to the businesses and households.

Based on the information available to me, I cannot see how they can justify making any decision to extend the circuit breaker. It would be folly.

However, if they are worried about an increase in severe cases, they should prepare for more hospital beds, ventilators and health care workers to be available. They should also employ specially screened care givers to take care of the elderly sick in nursing homes and those living alone.

The additional cost to expand the medical and care facilities is miniscule, compared to the cost of extending the circuit breaker.

I hope that the ministerial task force comes out with a sensible decision.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2874

MOH now explains the increase in new cases is due to more testing

For the last few days, I have been saying - don't worry about the big increase in new cases. It is due to large scale testing of the foreign workers living in the dormitories. It is the result of the protocol that required all contacts to be traced and tested.

I also said - if the task force is carrying out more testing recently compared to the past, they should make a statement about it. It is a relevant fact for people to understand the large increase in new cases. They should not hide this relevant fact.

Well, the report today, sent by Gov.SG, said that the increase in new cases is due to more tests being carried out. It also suggested that the new cases will drop when the tests are completed.

Guess where they learn about this fact? Someone must be monitoring my post, right? They probably told the ministers about it.

Why did our highly qualified and highly paid ministers in the task force not aware about this common sense fact earlier on? Why do they panic, and call the circuit breaker, when they learned about the increase in new cases?

The circuit breaker is probably not necessary. It probably cost the economy $10 billion in losses - $4 billion from the government relief measures and (my guess) $6 billion in losses suffered by businesses and households.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2874

Stay home and be safe

I have seen this statement on many occasions - stay home and be safe.

This may be a bad idea. Why?
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2873

Rhetoric and nonsense cannot justify bad decisions

Here is one nonsensical statement that some people throw at me - Mr. Tan, what is more important, money or lives?

This is my answer. We are probably spending $10 billion ($4 billion from the government stimulus measures and $6 billion from losses suffered by businesses and households), to save lives.

Nobody made any estimate about how many lives we would save by spending the $10 billion.

It cannot be that many, because so far, only 11 people have died from covid and another 23 are in ICU and some may die also.

The irony is - after spending (rather wasting) $10 billion, we will not be saving that many lives.

Rhetoric and nonsense cannot be used to justify wasting money that can be used to alleviate poverty and hunger in Singapore or in reducing the stress from the high cost of living in Singapore. These "diseases" kill more people than covid.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2872

Need for Singapore organizations to improve their customer service

I have been worried about the appalling state of customer service in government agencies and big businesses in Singapore. I have provided many feedback over the years, but their top management does not bother. Nobody bothers.

I want to share a positive experience with a company from China. It is OPPO, which is the manufacturer of the mobile phone that I use.

Read here.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2871

Positive cases detected through testing of patients at clinics

There was a report that several patients visiting clinics were tested at random for covid-19 and a certain number was found to be positive. This suggested that the community spread was more widespread than thought previously.

I was not surprised by this finding. It would be more helpful if the ministry of health disclosed the number that were tested and the number that were found to be positive and the proportion that were asymptomatic.

This is actually good news for the people in Singapore and probably bad news for the ministerial task force.

Why do I say so? It might expose their incompetence!
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2869

Enforcing the wearing of mask

I saw a few videos, shared through social media, about the difficulties faced by the enforcement officers in getting people to wear the mask. The officers were pleading with the public, often in a loud voice, to observe the regulations.

Who is to blame for these incidents?

a) The public who does not comply with the new regulations?
b) The enforcement officers who are adopting the enforcement in a rigid manner?

Here are my views.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2868

Excellent customer service from Xiaomi

I wish to commend Xiaomi for their excellent customer service.

My smart band 3 failed within the 1 year warranty period. I searched online for information on how to claim on the warranty.

I found a website that allowed me to send a message to the customer service location. The online form required me to fill up my name, email, telephone and the detail of my request.

I was able to submit the online form easily. It took me just one minute.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2867

Analyze the data obtained from the covid tests

The ministerial task force is probably carrying out large scale testings of the foreign workers living in dormitories. This is costing a huge sum of money. The purpose is to identify who are found to be infected for the virus and to put them in quarantine.

The task force should not miss the opportunity to analyze the results and learn valuable findings about the corona virus.

What other information are useful?

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2866

Join the international band wagon

Americans are scared of the coronavirus. It has already killed 105 per million of the population. It is so scary that the entire country has been logged down. I understand their concern. If we have 105 per million deaths in Singapore, I would also be scared.

Singaporeans are also terribly scared of the coronavirus. We are scared because Americans are scared, Europeans are scared and nearly everybody else is scared.

The coronavirus has killed 2 per million people in Singapore, but to the Singaporeans and the ministers in the task force, it does not make any difference. They cannot tell the difference between 105 and 2 deaths per million.

According to these people, every life is important. All deaths should be avoided.

These people think that the coronavirus is the only way to die.

They do not realize that there are another 3,498 people per million people who found other ways to die. These other deaths are not important, because our ministerial task force did not elevate them to the limelight.

I use a death rate of 3.5 per thousand for Singapore. This is provided by official statistics. There is another statistics that reported a death rate is 5 per thousand. It make no difference to my reasoning about our nonsensical approach.

So, Singapore also go into a lockdown, except that our ministers call it the circuit breaker and some people mistakenly call it the short circuit. Yeah, their thinking is short circuited.

Whenever I explained these statistics, I will get some over-reacted scare mongers scold me with all kinds of illogical arguments and personal statements.

One of them asked how I would feel if a foreign worker passed the virus to my maid who pass it to my family. I don't know how to reply to this kind of statement, so I just ignored it.

With the latest increase in new cases (which reflects the large increase in testing of the workers in the dormitory), many people expect more severe restrictions to follow. They expect a total lockdown.

I don't know what is a total lockdown, compared to what we already have now. Some body said - cannot go out and buy food. Better to stock up on food now. Another round of panic?

I also expect more severe restrictions, not because they are necessary, but because I expect the ministerial task force to over-react also. They also can't tell the difference between 105 deaths and 2 deaths per million, reflecting the poor quality of their leadership.

I don't know if the ministers realize that the increase is new cases is largely due to increased testing of the workers in the dormitory, rather than an actual increase in the transmission of the disease. If they did, why not state it in their daily news to the people?

Perhaps they think that it is safer to join the international band wagon, even though common sense dictate that our level of risk is very much lower.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2861

Contact tracing using an app

I downloaded the TraceTogether developed by GovTech. I used it for a day. I gave up and deleted the app.

I do not like the approach. It consumed too much battery by running Bluetooth to scan for nearby mobile phones. It did not provide any feedback to me on whether there were any data that were captured.

I find the Safe Paths app that is being developed by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology to have most promise.

It is described here
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2857

Compulsory to wear a mask

I went out on 16 April for 90 minutes walk wearing a mask. It was uncomfortable. I found it difficult to breath.

My friend said that the latest regulation allows a person to go out without a mask for brisk walking exercise.

I was aware of the latest change. Why did I wear the mask?

Here is the sequence of events:
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2856

728 new cases on 16 April 2020

Wow! 728 new cases for April 16. It does not suggest that the virus is spreading rapidly. It is the result of comprehensive testing of the workers in the dormitories. The virus has already spread earlier and is now discovered by the testing.

In America, 20% of those tested are found to be positive for the virus.

In Singapore, the infected cases represent 6% of those tested (4427 out of 72680, according to WHO statistics).

If we carry out comprehensive testing of the general population, I expect to find that 6% would also have been infected, but many of these cases were not identified because the infections were mild.

Will MOH release the statistics of how many people were tested for the virus, how many were found positive and how many had symptoms? This information is important to understand what is really happening.

The absence of this information will will cause panic among the general population and lead to stronger reaction, such as more drastic lockdown measures. Is it really necessary?

So far, the death rate for the coronavirus is 2 per million of population. It is extremely low in Singapore, compared to 86 in America and over 100 in some European countries.

In contrast, the death rate in Singapore from all causes is 3,500 per million. We should not over-react when 2 die from coronavirus. There are another 3,498 people who die from other causes.

Of course, people are scared that the virus can spread more widely in the general population. They imagine that it could increase by 100 or 1,000 folds. That fear is exaggerated and unfounded.

Even if there are more people in the general population that gets infected, most of the cases are likely to be mild.

We only need to worry if there are more people that need to be placed in intensive care and the death rate increase to 20 per million, i.e. 10 times of the current rate.

I am not suggesting that we do nothing until it reaches 20. We do what is necessary if the number does increase rapidly from the current 2 per million, but we should not plan on the basis that it will become 20 or 200. Not yet.

I still call on the people, and more especially, the ministerial task force, to look at the figures in the perspective that I have suggested, and to take rational decisions on what needs to be done.

Tan Kin Lian

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2855

Death rate from covid-19 is low in Singapore

Here are the death rates from covid-19 per million of population

World: 17.3
Spain 402
Italy 358
France 263
UK 190
Sweden 119
USA 86
Iran 57
Germany 45
Canada 27
Turkey 18
Israel 15
South Korea 4
Malaysia 3
Singapore 2
Indonesia 2
Australia 2
China 2

The death rate is low in hot climate (Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Indonesia) and countries with better control (China, South Korea).

Although the cases and deaths have increased in Singapore during the past week, the death rate is low relative to other countries.

Tan Kin Lian

Carry out a sample test of the general population

The increase in infected cases under covid-19 is alarming in recent days. We are seeing the new cases numbering several hundreds each day, compared to an average of 50 cases previously.

The figures may seem alarming, and may suggest that the virus is spreading rapidly.

However, there is another angle that may be overlooked.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2849

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. What should be done about the worker dormitories?
2. Should we continue to use foreign workers?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

WOTC - Close down workplaces

Wisdom of the Crowd: 69% of the respondents support the move to close down workplaces in Singapore during the coronavirus pandemic.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1943

WOTC - Control food prices

Wisdom of the Crowd: 47% of the respondents prefer the government to set controlled prices for essential items to control food prices during a pandemic. 31% prefer the government to issue coupons to families to buy a fixed quantity at fixed prices.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1942

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Which is the biggest blunder by the ministerial task force on covid-19?

2. Is it appropriate to make wearing of face mask in public mandatory?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

WOTC - Spanish Flu

Wisdom of the Crowd: 34% of the respondents said that the Spanish flu received its name because it caused most deaths in Spain. The other respondents cited other reasons.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1941

WOTC - America's response to Covid-19

Wisdom of the Crowd: 44% of the respondents said that America failed to act early to deal with the corona virus.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1940

Good judgment by Goh Meng Seng

In early January, Goh Meng Seng was asking people in Singapore to wear mask. He said that this measure was important to stop the spread of the virus. He uploaded his photo with a face mask and used it actively in his social medias.

I disagreed with Meng Seng at that time. I held the view that it was not necessary to wear a mask as the climate in Singapore was warm, unlike China or South Korea, and the spread of infection was low here. However, I did not want to contradict Meng Seng on this issue publicly. I did not support his stand at that time.

Some of his detractors said, on social media, that Meng Seng was politicizing the issue. I know Meng Seng well. He was sincere in his beliefs and views generally. In this instance, he must have sincerely felt that it was advisable for people to wear a mask when they are out in public. He was not using the opportunity to gain any political advantage.

As matters turn out, Meng Seng's judgment was right. As the spread of infection increased, it became advisable and necessary for the general public to wear a mask. It was clear that he had better judgment than the ministers in the ministerial task force.

My own view on this matter changed about two weeks ago, when the ministerial task force implemented compulsory social distancing. Using common sense, I concluded that time had come to use a face mask. It does not make sense to have social distancing in food outlets and malls, and yet allow people to be packed in crowded buses and trains together any protection. The journey that usually last more than half an hour.

So I started to wear a face mask in a crowded bus or train or other crowded place.

Finally, and perhaps somewhat late, the ministerial task force decided to make it compulsory for everyone to wear a mask when they are out of their house. As usual, that sudden and hasty decision was accompanied with threats of heavy fines for non-observance.

I hope that the ministers realize that many people have only one mask, or none at all, and that the mask has to be washed and dried after each use. It is also uncomfortable to wear in the mask in our hot climate, especially if they have to spend more than an hour to walk to the supermarket or market and to stand in the queue before being admitted.

Nevertheless, I am sure that the people will find a way to get out of this problem, even if the ministers overlooked it.

I hope that the ministerial task force will listen to practical people on the ground, like Goh Meng Seng and others, in making their decisions to deal with a difficult and changing problem. The people in the ministers' inner circle are in groupthink and may not have to courage to think outside of the box.

Tan Kin Lian

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2845

Improve the online process for applying for a passport

The online process to apply for a passport is actually quite easy. The applicant only needs to confirm the particulars (which were already available in the ICA records) and to upload a photo (according to the required specs). It should take just five minutes, for a person who is familiar with the process.

But it took me several hours on three occasions. The first two were aborted attempts.

What were the problems that I encountered?
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2844

A large investment in Tesla

I hold 500 shares in Tesla at an average cost of USD 605. At its worst point, when Tesla was at $360 on 18 March, I suffered a paper loss of S$170,000. I held on to the shares, as I was confident about the future for Tesla.

The share price recovered during the past four weeks. Last night, it closed at $650. From a paper loss, I now see a paper profit of S$32,000. Wow! It is a turnaround of S$200,000!

Tesla is my largest investment. It is an exception - in terms of the amount that I invest in any one share. I usually prefer to spread my investment in many shares - under the principle of diversification.

I am quite familiar with this company, and have watched many videos from analysts and the general public tracing the prospects for this leading manufacturer of electric cars.

Increase in covid-19 cases in Singapore

There is a large increase in covid-19 cases in Singapore during the past week. The latest figure was 386 cases for 13 April 2020. Before the recent upsurge, the average daily cases was around 50.

Most of the new cases were from foreign workers living in dormitories. One third of these cases could not be traced - giving alarm that it could indicate the extent of the community spread.

I wish to give my views on these issues.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2840

Helping people who suffer a loss of income

I wish to explain the merits and challenges of various ways to help people who suffer a loss of income during an economic downturn.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2839

WOTC - Should the govt bail out Singapore Airlines?

Wisdom of the Crowd: 57% of the respondents said that Singapore Airlines should be assisted by the government. 43% said that taxpayer's money should not be used to assist this company.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1939

WOTC - Helping people who suffer a loss of income

The respondents voted for the following choice to help people who suffer a loss of income - introduce an unemployment insurance (37%), allow them to take a soft loan (28%), give them money to meet essential expenses (28%).

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1938

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Will you use Zoom for teleconferencing?
2. Which teleconferencing platform do you prefer?

Vote in
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Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. How is home learning for the students

2. How is working at home?

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WOTC - Problem faced by Singapore Airlines

Wisdom of the Crowd: 69% of the respondents said that the main cause of the problem faced by Singapore Airlines is the covid-19 pandemic and the suspension of international flights. the other respondents blamed their fuel hedging practice which caused a large part of the loss.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1936

WOTC - Fuel hedging by airline

Wisdom of the Crowd: 47% of the participants said that an airline should hedge its fuel cost up to two years ahead. 50% said that it should hedge its fuel cost up to six months ahead.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1937

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. How do you rate the performance of the ministerial task force on covid-19?

2. If a general election is called by June, who will you vote for?

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Abuse of Temporary Relief Fund

The government implemented the Temporary Relief Fund to give a payment of $500 to lower to middle income citizens and permanent residents who face financial difficulty due to income loss caused by the covid-19 crisis. Details here. 

Two problems arose from this scheme:
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2832

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Have you tried the Trace Together app?
2. Should the circuit breaker be extended by another month?

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WOTC - Closure of schools

Wisdom of the Crowd: 61% of the respondents like schools to be closed immediately.
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1935

WOTC - Social distancing measures

Wisdom of the Crowd: 46% of the respondents support the social distancing measures. The remainder raised doubts about it.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1934

Are cronies favored?

The recent outbreak of infection in the worker dormitories have raised the following question - who are the owners of the dormitories and are the owners and directors connected to the PAP?

A search of the ACRA records will probably disclose that the owners and directors are former MPs or are members of the grassroots organizations under the Peoples' Association.

How will this be interpreted?
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2828

Income relief loan - a working example

I prefer an income relief loan to be given to workers who are retrenched or suffer a drop of income during an economic downturn.

The attached paper shows how the relief loan can work. It is based on a sample of 1,000 workers and is projected over a period of 12 months of the economic downturn.

The total amount required for the relief loan for 1,000 workers is $13 million. If this is computed for 3 million workers (i.e. the workforce in Singapore), the required budget is $39 billion.

This relief loan ensures that all the workers are able to maintain their income at 80% of the level for the past year and that the monthly income is sufficient to meet the living expenses.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2827

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Should the govt use mobile phone data for contact tracing?

2. Should living conditions in worker dormitories be improved?

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WOTC - Best way to do contact tracing

Wisdom of the Crowd: 52% of the respondents said that the best way of contact tracing is to develop an app to allow the NRIC or QR code to be scanned. 36% prefer that the authority use the mobile phone records to locate contacts.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1933

WOTC - Measures to stop the spread of corona virus

Wisdom of the Crowd: 41% of the respondents said that the best way to stop the spread of the corona virus is to provide more testing. 32% chose social distancing measures.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1932

How to manage the income relief loan

During an economic downturn, such as already happened during the covid-19 pandemic, the government can provide an income relief loan to every worker who is impacted.

I suggest that this relief loan be managed as follows:
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2824

Time to wear a face mask

Many people criticized the ministers for stating that there was no need to wear the mask earlier and for now changing their mind.

I do not agree with the criticism.

In the early days, there was no need to wear a mask due to the low rate of infection.

When the infection rate increased, it became necessary to wear a mask.

We should make decisions based on the actual risk and not on some theoretically thinking.

We should also make our decisions based on our actual situation and not on the situations in other countries.

The risk was higher in other countries due to their climate and their rate of infection.

Now that the risk in Singapore has increased to a higher level, it is advisable to wear a mask. It may be compulsory to do so.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2823

How the F&B sector could have been helped

Here are the real problems faced by the food and beverage outlets. Does the three stimulus measures help them? Click here.

It would be difficult for these outlets to operate, in spite of the kind of financial assistance offered by the government.

If the government had adopted the measures that I proposed here, it might be more helpful to the businesses. Click here.

This is how my proposal would work:
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2822

Was the government too slow in responding to the crisis

Dear Mr. Tan
Was the government slow and complacent at the early stages and they are now in panic mode and have to implement extreme measures under the 'circuit breaker' ?

TKL REPLY
I hold a different view from most other people. I think that the govt acted too early in declaring code Orange.

I complained that the two measures, namely workplace scanning and manual recording of contact tracing details, were largely useless. The resources should have been used towards other more effective measures.

Even now, when the infection had spread more rapidly, I think that the 'circuit measures' were rather extreme. It comes at a very heavy cost to the economy.

Nevertheless, I hope that it will be effective in getting rid of the corona virus. It will probably require more than one month of lockdown, maybe two months.

If I were in charge, I would not call the 'circuit breaker'. I would find other ways to strengthen the social distancing and containment.

We have to wait and see.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2818

Quora: Will China sell N95 masks to the United States?

Reply by Pin Yang

I am a Chinese exporter of N95 masks for US market for many years.

The answer is ‘Yes, They will’, and ‘No, they cant’.The problem is that US was acting too late, Chinese can not accept new orders with too much order in hand.

Due to strict regulation placed in US, the only acceptable mask that they can sell is N95 certified masks, which only 13 factories can have the certificate to produce it in China. 

UPDATE：08/04/2020 NOW THE CDC FINALLY ACCEPTED KN95 MASKS. Many country responded to covid-19 much earlier than US, so they came to the Chinese factories much earlier and purchased all future productions. For now, new orders will only be accepted in May-July, depending on the factory. On the other hand, normal medical (disposable) masks is not in short in China, people can get as many as they like.

New update, due to raw material price rocketed, the price for N95 masks has risen 10 fold of original. The price are confidential so i can just give you all a rough idea. I just had a US customer declined our quote, they cant rise the sale price due to state regulation of stabilizing market price. I have heard their domestic supply can get half price of what we quote, but i am not sure what was the quantity they can get from the US supplier, just hope they will be fine. Good luck to you all.

I have saw the news of New York hospitals were facing a major overwhelming situation. Probably this will be soon for other states. It is heart breaking. For those people who in need of masks and not price sensitive, i advise you go contact your Chinese friends and ask if they have any Chinese local to get some KN95 masks. Its Chinese equivalent of N95. It can not be sale in US supermarket but it was accepted by CDC to get for personal protection. Slightly overpriced but saves life.

Circuit breaker in Singapore

The measures implemented under the 'circuit breaker' in Singapore are quite extreme. In some ways, it is more serious than a lockdown.

It disallow meeting of people who are not in the same household. It requires all non-essential workplaces to be closed for one month. It imposes stiff penalties for not following the social distancing rules.

Most people think that this is unavoidable, given the spread of the infection in Singapore.

I agree that we need to take measures to contain the spread, but I would prefer to adopt the measures in Taiwan. These measures include:

a) Mandatory wearing of face masks in public
b) Provide hand sanitizers in all public places
c) Provide stations for testing of the corona virus.
d) Community monitoring of the social distancing rules.
e) Use of phone records for contact tracing

I also prefer the temperature scanning to be done at all public places and to stop the manual recording of contact tracing details. Let the resources be diverted to preventive measures to contain the corona virus, such as those adopted in Taiwan.

More importantly, Taiwan did not mandate the closing down of workplaces, which cause a big disruption to the economy.

Never mind. We are now in 'circuit breaker' mode. We should take the next few weeks to implement the measures adopted successfully in Taiwan. Hopefully, they will help to contain the spread and allow the 'circuit breaker' to be disabled on 4 May.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2817

Relief loans for businesses

In a severe economic downturn, many businesses have to reduce their operating expenses to match the loss of revenue. They have to retrench their workers.

I suggest that they should ask all their workers to take partial no-pay leave, e.g. 30% of the working week. The workers will suffer a reduction in their income, but they can apply to the government for a relief loan for the period of the downturn.

The government should also extend to the business a relief loan to cover their rental, payroll and utility expenses. This relief loan is available for the period of the downturn. It will carry a modest interest rate, e.g. pegged to the rate of inflation.

This allows the businesses to continue as before and keep their workers partially employed. It will cause minimal disruption to the businesses and allow them to be ramp up their activities when the upturn returns.

The relief loans can be managed by the banks and are covered by a 100% government guarantee. A reasonable cap can be set to prevent abuses.

With the 100 guarantee, there is no need for the banks to carry out a strict evaluation of the loans.

However, the bank can extend additional loans to cover other expenses, and that can be on commercial terms and be subject to their evaluation.

There will be some abuses, but the extend will be small and they can be managed at a later date. It is important that the relief loans be available quickly and with only modest first level evaluation.

I believe that this approach will be helpful to protect employment and businesses.

Several countries have adopted this approach in granting assistances to businesses affected by the severe economic downturn.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2816

Loan relief scheme to cover loss of income

Most countries prefer to give financial assistance to the unemployed as a benefit.

They face the difficulty of managing the abuse.

I prefer to give them a loan to cover the loss of income. They have to repay the loan in the future, with a modest rate of interest. This will tide them over a period of unemployment, but may be capped for 6 to 12 months.

As this is a loan that needs to be paid back, the abuse is reduced somewhat, but not totally.

In the future, a part of the distress loan can be written off or forgiven, but that can be done at a later date, subject to evaluation.

In the case of Singapore, the loan can be charged against the CPF savings or against a property bought with CPF funds.

This loan facility will be available to all workers, regardless of income level. They are available to the higher income workers as well.

The loans can also be extended to the self employed, including professionals, who suffer a loss of income during an economic downturn. The loss of income can be capped at a level that is appropriate to the occupation or trade.

If all income earners have access to a loan to cover the loss of income, there is no need to extend other types of assistance, such as grants to cover utility, rental, mortgage payments and loan repayments. Life can continue as before. There will be minimal need to monitor against abuses in these other relief schemes.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2815

Stimulus packages face problems

I read about the problems in administering the three stimulus packages introduced by the government to deal with the covid-19 crisis

I quote some examples in this article and suggest a better way to provide the financial assistance that could avoid these problems.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2814

Job support scheme

In his third stimulus budget for 2020, finance minister Heng SK announced that the government will be providing a grant to cover 75% of the payroll for April 2020, i.e. the month that all non-essential workplaces have to be closed due to the circuit breaker. This grant is given on condition that the employer does not put any of the employees on no pay leave or retrench them.

In a webinar on the economic stimulus, one participant asked the question - if I have 10 workers and I placed 2 of them on no-pay leave (which was already arranged ahead), will it affect the grant for the 8 workers that are still being employed?

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2809

Rebate on property tax

I notify my two tenants that I will be giving them a rebate of 3% of the rental for 2020. This is a small sum but it is all that I am getting from Heng SK's budget.

One of them replied - thank you. this is coffee money. I know him to be a good friend, so I know that he is not laughing at me.

Heng SK gave rebate of 30% of the property tax. As the property tax is 10% of the annual value, it is 3% of the annual value. As the rental is approximately the annual value, this is how I calculated the 3%.

I joined two webinars arranged by a chamber of commerce on the stimulus budgets.

One participant asked the question - how do I distribute the property tax rebate to my tenants? He must be asking a equation that is on the mind of several tens of thousand of owners of commercial properties.

It is really a small sum that the government is giving to the landlords. And they now have to figure out how to distribute it to their tenants. This will be required by law.

I am sure that many tenants will find it to be too small to be of any use. It will probably caused many misunderstanding between the landlords and the tenants.

At the very least, the government should give a rebate of 100% of the property tax for 2020. Even so, this would be less than one months of rental.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2808

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Are the three stimulus packages helpful to businesses?

2. What do you think about the circuit breaker measures?

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WOTC - Fast spread of covid-19

Wisdom of the Crowd: 62% of the respondents said that the increase in infections is caused by the rapid spreading of the disease now. 21% said that it is due to increased testing. 18% said that more people come forward to be tested.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1931

WOTC - How can a company cut expense during a downturn

Wisdom of the Crowd: 71% of the respondents prefer the company to ask the workers to take no pay leave and the govt to provide a loan for the loss of income, if the company has to reduce cost during a downturn. 26% prefer the company to retrench its unproductive workers.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1930

Unethical business practice

I want to share an example of unethical business ethics.

At an early date, I bought a temperature gun for $9. It worked well. I immediately placed an order for 3 more guns. The order was accepted.

Two weeks later, the supplier cancelled the order. They claimed - out of stock.

I looked for another supplier and placed an order for 3 pieces at a slightly higher price. The order was accepted.

The same outcome happened. Two weeks later, the supplier cancelled the order claiming - out of stock.

The same equipment are not being offered for 4 to 5 times of the previous price.

I suspect, in both cases, the suppliers found that they could sell their equipment at a higher price. So, the cancelled the order, after accepting it and collecting the money.

The website refunded the money, but it was an unethical business practice.

Why was there a sharp increase in infection since 24 March?

I asked my 100 year old crystal ball - where was there a sharp increase in the number of infections during the past two weeks, since 24 March?

Could it be due to the large number of students who returned home from the UK and the US? Among them, a large number are reported as "imported cases". Could these people be responsible for the increase in infections?

My crystal ball said - but these people were placed under quarantine in the luxury hotels. How could they have spread the virus, when they were under quarantine?

Why then is there a sharp increase?

This is the reply from the crystal ball. Do you believe it?
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2805

Respond in a timely manner

We need to respond in a timely manner. We should not respond too late (i.e. behind the curve). However, we should also avoid responding prematurely, as it may cause panic and disruption.

There is a cost to responding too late. There is also a cost to responding too early.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2800

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Is it safe for the public to re-use the same face mask for several days?
2. Should Singapore start a factory to make face masks immediately?

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Compare Taiwan and Singapore's approach

Let me compare the different approaches adopted by Taiwan and Singapore.

a) Both form a high level committee to deal with the problem. Singapore has a ministerial task force. Taiwan has the Central Epidemic Command Center. Look at the qualification of the people in the two organizations.

b) Taiwan uses data base technology, artificial intelligence and access to digital data for contact tracing, in spite of privacy laws. Singapore records contract tracing details manually.

c) Taiwan encourages the use of face mask early. Singapore discouraged the use of face mask until recently.

d) Taiwan has a neighborhood warden system to enforce quarantine and deliver meals and assistance to those in need. Where are the residents committee in Singapore doing in this respect?

Read the details about Taiwan's approach here:

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/03/19/taiwan-shows-its-mettle-in-coronavirus-crisis-while-the-who-is-mia/

Are the leaders in Taiwan doing a better job?

Give your vote here:
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2799

WOTC - Low spread of the corona virus in Singapore

Wisdom of the Crowd: 44% of the respondents said that the prompt and early action by the government was the main reason for the low spread of the corona virus in Singapore. 33% said that it was the warm weather.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1929

WOTC - Best approach towards the corona virus

Wisdom of the Crowd: The respondents voted the country with the best approach in dealing with the corona virus as follows - Taiwan (43%), China (32%), South Korea (14%), Singapore (11%), Hong Kong (0%).

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1928

The faulty crystal ball

Earlier, I made a prediction that the global stock markets would make a recovery on 9 April.

I said that I obtained the prediction from my 100 year old crystal ball. Now, it does appear that the crystal ball might be wrong.

I asked my crystal ball again - why did you make a wrong prediction?

Here is the answer:
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2798

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. What if the ventilators in your hospital are fully used?
2. Are medical products from China defective?
3. Do we have capable and dedicated ministers?

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Naming of roads - Sunrise Estate

In many parts of Singapore, the roads are given names without proper logical structure.

I show below the map of the Sunrise Estate, off Yio Chu Kang Road. The roads are now named as

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2796

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. What if the ventilators in your hospital are fully used?
2. Are medical products from China defective?

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Use scare resources fairly and effectively

Many hospitals around the world are facing this difficult decision. They ICU and ventilators are fully occupied. They have new patients who need ventilators. What should they do?

They have no choice but to turn away the new patients. Sorry, we do not have any bed for you.

In some hospitals, they have to take away the old patients to release the bed and ventilator to a younger patient, who has a better chance of survival. It is a very difficult decision.

Someone has to decide. If you are in charge, how do you decide?

Tough right? Here is my answer.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2795

Deaths in US from corona virus

The deaths in the US from the coronavirus is not alarming. Let me explain my thinking.

I saw a report in CNBC that 1 million people tested for coronavirus in US and more than 200,000 have tested positive. The people tested were hospital workers and patients.

This means that over 20% of the population is already infected with the corona virus. If we extrapolate it to the entire population of 320 million, more than 64 million were already exposed to the virus.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2790