Tan Kin Lian's Blog: TKL speech at NSP rally on 4 May 2011

Thursday, May 05, 2011

TKL speech at NSP rally on 4 May 2011

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fKw8ahcS1Oo&feature=youtu.be

3 comments:

Anonymous said...: PAP projecting a false image of confidence and strength

After running around like a headless chicken for 9 days, the PAP is now playing its last psychological card.

They got LHL to apologise for mistakes.

They are now using every means possible to project an image of confidence and strangth.

Having failed with direct intimidation, they are now trying indirect intimidation. Meaning that if you are an opposition supporter, you are a minority. So better be careful and think twice if you want to vote Opposition.

Will the tactic work or will it backfire?

The results of GE 2011 had been decided long before Nomination Day. The crying, apologies and now propoganda add to the politcal theatre. People are however not stupid and can think for their own self interest. The PAP's campaign message resontes with those who are doing well and who are scared to lose what they have got. For those who are not doing well and who are finding daily life a struggle, it is the Opposition message which makes sense. Since the PAP is made up mainly elites, they naturally think most Singaporeans are doing well. It is hard for them to understand that the majority of Singaporeans are not doing well and are in fact struggling through life.

As part of final campaign, we now hear whispers of secret polls and studies which claim to give up to date reading of the ground. If you are a statistician, you will know this is plain impossible. To achive a 95% confidence interval, you need a RANDOM sample of 384. Multiply this across all the GRCs being contested, and you will need thousands of observations. This is especially if you want to go down to the consituiency level.

It is impossible to sample such a large number of people without it being publicly noticed. This is especially given the heightened political awareness during this period. And if it was noticed that the PAP was doing such a poll, you will see this all over the Opposition web sites, especially since political polling is against the law.

Even if the poll was conducted, there is still the time needed to enter the data and tabulate up the results. Given the short time frame involved, it is logistically impossible to get this done.

More so if fgds or focus group discussions are involved. A FGD involving 10 to 15people takes about an hour to conduct. The result is mainly qualitative and it will take an analyst about a day to do a decent report on 1 group. Multiply by all the areas contested and we again have something which is logistically impossible.

Which leaves us with the PAP's kopitiam research. This is your large group of grassroots people who fan out and attempt to get feedback on what is happening on the gound. It is imperfect, biased and wldly inaccurate.

What's worse is that the grassroots is dominated by the pre-65 group. Hence SM's comment that he is not able to feel the young. This is because his grassroot of old timers cannot connect with the P65 generation which has been showing up in large numbers at the opposition rallies.

The honest truth therefore is that the PAP doesn't have anymore secret or advanced knowledge of what the electoral landscape is like after what has been an unprecedented election campaign.; May 05, 2011 3:40 PM
Tan Choon Hong said...: Thank you Mr Tan, for weighing in with your thoughts.

The PAP likes to take credit for transforming Singapore from a sleepy hollow into a thriving metropolis. What they forget to mention is that it was Raffles, and other colonialists that came after, who carved out a swampy village and turned it into a bustling port-city, a bastion of the then glorious British Empire.

When the PAP came to power, they were a ragtag bunch of agitators and radicals with zero track record. But on-the-job-training and the magnanimity of the departing colonial masters helped the PAP and the resilient citizens to build on a solid foundation. For starters the Brits left a brilliant civil service, schools, hospitals, an airport that was the pride of empire, and a successful public housing program then called the Singapore Improvement Trust. With the assistance of a UN aid program under the direction of the late Dr Winsemius, the industrialization of Singapore began, latching on the strength of the port and naval base.

Basically, the PAP inherited a going concern built on the blood, sweat and tears of our forebears. To claim that they built this city from ground zero is a shameless rewriting of history. It is time we the citizens send our own representatives for on-the-job training to take Singapore to a new level.

Voters must ignore the PAP’s threat that a clean sweep by the opposition will lead to chaos. Singapore is run like a corporation, as in Singapore Inc., so an opposition takeover is like a change of management. In the aftermath, we’ll all report for work the next morning, hospitals, schools, banks will continue operating, buses and trains will run, planes will land at and take off from Changi. Even in the GLCs, it’ll be business as usual as the opposition won’t be able to muster replacements for the top echelon immediately, if ever or necessary. Like a supertanker, it will take some time to steer it on a new course. Real change will come as the new government pulls the levers of power and implement new initiatives to correct the shortcomings of the outgoing government.

Remember, this country is run by highly paid and efficient civil servants and professionals who will have to take their orders from the incoming bosses, like it or not. Development plans, upgradings, etc. that are already formulated belongs to the citizens. It’s up to the new government to push them through or modify them according to their mandate of the people.; May 05, 2011 9:00 PM
yujuan said...: Our PM seems so confident that PAP is leading the pack in the polls.
First intimidation, then apologies, and then play the psychological card to influence people to follow the crowd and vote his Party.
He is a "Bian Se Long", a chameleon,
an animal that could change its colors according to surroundings.
Does it mean whatever he says now, he could change his words like the chameleon changing colors.
Meaning, could we trust him?; May 05, 2011 9:56 PM