Which factor will cause the biggest swing from the PAP at the next general election?

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - Which factor will cause the biggest swing from the PAP at the next general election?

You can view the votes here:
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=447
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=448

Why does Grace Fu insist that Leon Pereira (LP) apologise to the House of Parliament?

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - Why does Grace Fu insist that Leon Pereira (LP) apologise to the House of Parliament?

47% of the people who voted said that Grace Fu is a big bully. 31% said that Leon Pereira made a fair statement and does not need to apologise. This makes a total of 78%.

The remaining 22% said that the demand by Grace Fu is justified.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=446

Should Singapore celebrate its bicentennial of its founding by Stamford Raffles in 2019?

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - Should Singapore celebrate its bicentennial of its founding by Stamford Raffles in 2019?

Only 14% voted that this is useful. The remaining 86% felt it was a waste of money or that PM Lee had questionable motives.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=449

Do you agree with the use of the former names for the merged junior colleges?

Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Will private property prices move higher over the next two years?

Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Data analytics for bus services in Singapore

I am working out a submission to the Land Transport Authority for their data analytic project.

I will ask them to provide the following data to me:

a) Passengers boarding and alighting from buses for 1 month - showing the passenger id, bus id, time and bus stop.
b) Buses arriving at bus stops showing the bus id, time and bus stop.

I expect to get 8 million records per day X 30 days or nearly 240 million records under (a) and 4,600 X 10 X 60 = 3 million records under (b). This is a huge amount of data.

I will compute the average delay time for each bus, adjusted by the time of the day. For example, we expect a bigger delay during peak hours, so this has to be adjusted.

The buses with higher delay can be identified. It could suggest that the bus is in a poorer condition and need more thorough maintenance.

Some buses have faulty tracking systems, leading to non-reporting of their locations. They will be identified and the tracking system can be repaired or replaced.

I will also compute the average occupancy rate for each bus service and for peak and off-peak hours. We can transfer buses from services with lower occupancy rates to services with higher occupancy rates, so that the occupancy rates is more evenly distributed.

If the average occupany rate is higher than a benchmark, more buses should be added to the system.

The data will also provide me with the means to carry out a simulation to change the bus routes and to introduce express services to reduce the travelling time.

Does this sound complicated? It seems to be quite a common sense approach, right?

Do you have any suggestion on what other analysis might be useful?



Do you have any suggestion on what other analysis might be useful?

Australian superannuation fund gives excellent return in 2017

Daniel Yong is now working in Australia. He sent this message about the return on his superannuation fund. It gave a return much better than the return paid by our Central Provident Fund in Singapore.

Hi Kin Lian,

Just thought I'll drop you a note on how my own superannuation is doing for me. Whenever I get an update like this I'm so thankful I'm here and not in Spore where I'm stuck with Spore's dredful CPF. Hope it doesn't come across as being boastful. I'm simply thankful. I still have a long ways to go to build financial independence. Every little bit helps.

The excerpt below:
The 2017 calendar year delivered strong returns for most UniSuper members, particularly those invested in options with a large allocation to global share markets. Our top three performing investment options were Global Environmental Opportunities, Global Companies in Asia and International Shares, with returns of 20.1%, 19.3%, and 17.2% respectively.

Our Balanced option, which has almost $20 billion in assets, recorded a healthy 11.9% (13.2% for pension members), and has now notched up six consecutive calendar years of positive returns.


Daniel Yong

Do you agree with the government's concern about fake news?

I give you four interesting options to vote on. Submit your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Simulation of general election 2020

Select any of the simulation here and view the factors that cause the swing against the PAP and the simulated results of the election.

This is a simulation. It is not "fake news". I hope the Law Minister understands the difference, right?

http://tklcloud.com/Election/const2.aspx?

What are your views about the fire in Toa Payoh and the standard of fire safety in Signapore.

Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Will Singaporeans be prepared to pay for news?

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - Will Singaporeans be prepared to pay for news?

85% of those who voted said "no" and gave two reasons. The remaing 15% said "yes" based on two models of payments.

See the breakdown in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=444

NRIC number should not be a secret

In the past, we use the NRIC as the means of identifying a person. The government issues a NRIC card with the photo to each person.

The NRIC is never intended to be used as the "full identification" of that person. Where necessary, the person has to produce the NRIC card for verification of the identity.

Later, somebody decided that the NRIC number should be kept secret. It cannot be used in case somebody uses it fraudulently.

I cannot understand this logic. A person's name is also used for identification. Should the name be kept secret as well?

We face a different situation from America. In America, the social security number is used to identify a person. However, there is no official card with this number and a photo that can be used to confirm the identity. In America, it is necessary to keep the social security number secret.

I suspect that we are making a big mistake to keep the NRIC secret.

Talk on Financial Planning - Do it the Right Way

Dear

I am sending this message to you because you have visited my website recently and you are probably interested in this talk organized by the Financial Services Consumer Association.

I have often received request from consumers asking for my advice on what they should do with a life insurance policy that they have bought and is showing a poor return after paying premiums for many years.

In most cases, it is already too late to cancel the policy, as it would result in a large financial loss.

It would have been better if they knew how to make the right decision in the first place and learn the right way to invest their savings.

This "right way" is covered in the talk.

You can register for this talk by clicking here.

If you have children who have grown up and are now working or would be working soon, you should also advise them to attend this talk. Do not allow them to get into the wrong decision through ignorance.

The talk is free to members of FISCA. If you wish to join FISCA, you can register here.

I will be giving a free hard copy book on financial planning to attendees at the talk. Do not miss it. If you are not able to attend the talk, you can buy this book for $15 (including postage).


Tan Kin Lian

What will happen to Bitcoin in 2018?

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - What will happen to Bitcoin in 2018?

42% of those who voted expect it to fall below US$10,000. 58% expect it to stay above $10,000.

You can view the breakdown of the votes in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Do you expect war in the Korean Peninsula in 2018?

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - Do you expect war in the Korean Peninsula in 2018?

22% of those who voted expect a conflict. 78% expect the tension to be solved without any conflict.

You can view the breakdown of the votes in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Is PM Lee largely responsible for the setbacks faced by Singapore during 2017?

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - Is PM Lee largely responsible for the setbacks faced by Singapore during 2017?

7% of the people who voted have a positive view of his performance. 93% have a negative view.

You can view the breakdown of the votes by reason given in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Do you have faith in the fourth generation leadership of Singapore?

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - Do you have faith in the fourth generation leadership of Singapore?

79% of the people who voted expressed negative views of these leaders. The other 21% are positive.

You can view the breakdown of the votes and the reasons in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Is it a good strategy for the Pakatan coalition to pick Dr. Mahathir as PM designate?

Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Who should take the responsibility for the bribery committed by Keppel Offshore & Marine

Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

How can we stop a case from dragging so long in the court?

Some cases took a long time to be settled in court.

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - How can we stop a case from dragging so long in the court?

47% said that the court should give clear guidelines to stop the case from being dragged in court. 37% said that the court should set a limit on the fees that lawyers can charge for each case, depending on type. This makes a total of 86%.

The remaining 14% is happy to continue with the current arrangement.

View the breakdown of the votes in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

What can Singapore do to become a sporting nation?

Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Progress report of Forest City - January 2018

Here is the video of Forest City showing the progress as at january 2018.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypuaOen6wyA

Here is the PDF report of the various sections of Forest City. I bought an apartment in Ataraxia park which is near the International School.
http://www.tankinlian.com/PDF/1454

The substructure work is completed. They are now starting on the superstructure work. The expected delivery date is 2019.

How to stop a train from colliding into another train

My friend is an engineer involved in MRT system. We worked in LTA for many years. Later, he worked for an engineering contractor and is involved in the engineerng work for the new MRT stations.

We discussed the need for a signal system in MRT trains.  He said, why can't each train install a system that will stop one train collding into another train. That is a simple system.

I agred with him totally. Many expensive cars now have a collision avoidance system. This kind of system can be installed on every train. If there is a large obstacle in front, the train will slow down immediately and stop automatically.

We both agreed that this system is essential and should be installed on each train independent of the central control system. Why are our trains only rely on the central system? It seemed to be quite "stupid".

Why does LTA install an expensive signal system on the MRT?

Each MRT line is dedicated to be used by trains on that line. The trains do not cross from one line to another.

During peak periods, the train arrives at each station every 90 seconds. The distance between one train and another is about 1.5 km. This is a very long distance, compared to buses and cars on the road.

It is easy to drive a train. After arriving at a station for 30 seconds, close the door and drive at 60 km to the next station. The driver can make sure that the train is aligned at the station, so that all the doors can open for passengers to alight and board the train.

it is easier than drive a bus.

Why is there a need to install an expensive and complicated signal system that cost nearly $100 million for each line? After spending this sum of money, we now get trains being delayed often due to "signal problems".

i do not understand why the LTA should spend such large sums of money and still get so much problems.

Can someone help to explain the rationale of their planning?

Why does the Indonesian couple need to fight AIA for 10 years over a fake policy?

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - Why does the Indonesian couple need to fight AIA for 10 years over a fake policy?

76% of those who replied said that the regulator had to step in earlier, instead of letting the client fight a big insurance company. 12% said that the court should not let the case drag on for so long. 2% blamed the lawyer for dragging the case. This made a total of 90%.

The remaining 10% said that the case took so long because it was complicated.

You can view the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=438