Saturday, January 23, 2021

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues


1. Is it risky to hold the World Economic Forum in Singapore in May 2021?

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World Economic Forum in Singapore

 The World Economic Forum will be held in Singapore in May 2021.

Many people are worried that this event will lead to a large spike in covid infections in Singapore. They asked for the event to be canceled to avoid the health risk.
I am not worried. The health risk is small, for the following reasons:
1. The visitors will be tested for covid before leaving their countries and on arrival in Singapore.
2. Safe distancing measures will be implemented during the event.
3. Any infection of the asymptomatic people is likely to be mild.
4. We have already been receiving arrivals into Singapore for some time. The increase of arrivals during the WEF will be higher, but will not be massive.
I expect a small spike in infection during the WEF but it is likely to be contained.
We should take the small risk of hosting the World Economic Forum in Singapore.

Vaccination of the population

I suggest that the Smart Nation initiative take a bold step to prepare the nation for the vaccination.

Here are the elements of my proposal.
a) Every resident already has a NRIC/FIN number
b) Ask them to provide a mobile number. People who do not have a personal mobile number can use the mobile number of a family member or friend
c) Create a website to allow them to view the date and center for vaccination.
d) Send a SMS to the individual 7 days before the vaccination date.
The Smart Nation office should allow the NRIC/mobile number database to be used for future communication on other issues. This should replace communication by physical mail.
A one time exercise should be carried out to get the mobile number contact of every individual.
I hope that the Smart Nation Office take this initiative to create the NRlC/mobile database now. It can be used for the mass vaccination project and for other purpose.

WOTC - Vote on these issues

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WOTC - Disobey President Trump's orders

 Wisdom of the Crowd: 95% of the respondents said that the cabinet secretaries should not obey President Trump's orders during his final days in office, if they are irrational.

Friday, January 22, 2021

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. What is your view on President Biden first few days in office?
2. How is the performance of the ministers in charge of the covid crisis?
3. Should the government set up special clinic and provide free covid testing?

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Provide special clinics for covid testing

 I am angry at the stupidity of our ministers in the covid task force.

They complain that the worker did not see a doctor when sick. Surely, the government should set up special clinic to provide free testing for covid for people with symptoms. The clinic does not provide any treatment. If the special clinic is provided and are available at convenient locations, there is no need for any worker to hesitate to be tested. The cost of running the special clinic is small, compared to the tens of millions that are spent on safe entry and workplace precautions. When will our ministers use their judgment and common sense? My crystal ball CB said - Yeah, boss. The ministers are insane!

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. What is your view on President Biden first few days in office?

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WOTC - Incite the riot

 Wisdom of the Crowd: 92% of the respondents said that President Trump should be voted out of office for inciting the riot in the Capital Building.

Thursday, January 21, 2021

WOTC - Biggest failure of PAP government

 Wisdom of the Crowd: 44% of the respondents rated the high cost of living as the biggest failure of the PAP government.

Wednesday, January 20, 2021

Intertown tunnels for autonomous electric vehicles

I propose that we develop tunnels from 20 towns to the CBD. The average length of a tunnel is 15 km. We need 40 tunnels of 15 km to provide for two way traffic. The total distance is 40X 15 = 600 km.

The cost of developing a tunnel, using the benchmark from The Boring Company of America is US $5 million per km or S $ 4 million per km. The total cost of 600 km is $2.4 billion. This is a modest budget compared to the $7 to 8 billion for the North South Corridor.

The tunnel will be used by autonomous electric vehicles capable of taking 12 passengers. The AEV are provided by the tunnel company. If the interval between each AEV is 15 second, the capacity of each tunnel is 60 X 4 X 12 = 3,600 passengers, or 60 buses of 60 passengers.

Under the current bus system, the interval between buses is 6 minutes during peak hours or 10 buses an hour. The throughput of each tunnel is the equivalent of 6 bus services.

Based on an average speed of 100 kph in the tunnel, the travel time for 15 km is 9 minutes. Imagine entering the AEV at Woodlands and arriving in the CBD 9 minutes later. Allowing the time for the feeder service at both ends, the total travel time would be 30 minutes. This compares with a travel time of 80 minutes using the current service.

A network of inter town tunnels would reduce the travel time, improve the efficiency and reduce the operating cost.

WOTC - Use of Trace Together data

 Wisdom of the Crowd: 67% of the respondents are unhappy that the Police can use the Trace Together data for criminal investigation.

Tuesday, January 19, 2021

WOTC - Donald Trump after leaving his presidency


Will Donald Trump maintain his popularity with Republican voters?
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Review of my property stocks

I invested $700,000 in property stocks in my active portfolio. It now shows a loss of about 11% on my invested sum.

My main losses are in Lippo Mall and Koh Brothers. I kept them for their attractive dividend yields (which has now been cut) and their large discounts to the asset values.

My investment in Capitaland and Hong Kong Land used to show large losses but they have now been turned profitable. They also show large discounts to their asset values.

My investment in Country Garden still show a loss, but it has a low price earning ratio and an attractive dividend yield.

I believe that the property stocks are under valued and will recover in price during the next half to a year.

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WOTC - Storm the US Capitol Building

Wisdom of the Crowd: 90% of the respondents said that President Trump should be held responsible for inciting the mob to storm the US Capitol Building

Quora: China applies pressure on Australia


China keeps on applying pressure on Australian exports as a punishment. Will the very same China punish Australia by not sending migrants and students to live and study in the country?
Ridzwan Abdul Rahman replied:
The number of students from China applying for a place in Australian universities has dropped significantly (by 44%) for 2021. This is significant because China has fully recovered from C19 infections and there is no reason for the numbers to drop, other than the students themselves no longer preferring to study in Australia.
I expect the number of migrants from China to Australia to also be reduced for fear of bad treatment in Australia. Asian Australians, particularly of Chinese heritage, reported an increase in abuse and racist attacks ('I need time to heal': Chinese-Australians speak out after racist vandal attack) because the coronavirus was first detected in China.

Monday, January 18, 2021

Robotaxis will soon be common

 Robotaxis are taxis that do not require a driver. The city of Changsha in China introduced robotaxis a few months ago. Watch this video.

In the video, there still have a driver at the wheel. This is required under the road traffic regulation. But this regulation is likely to change.
If the robotaxis have been operating a few months (with a standby driver) and the accident rate is lower than normal vehicles, the regulators are likely to relax the requirement and allow the robotaxis to operate without the standby driver. This will soon happen.
The software for the robotaxis in Changsha is develop by Baidu. Its company is described as the Google of China. I have started to invest in the stock.
Does this mean that taxi drivers will lose their jobs? It may happen, but it will probably take at least one or two decades. It will take time for people to feel confident about using a robotaxi.

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WOTC - Storming of the Capitol Building in Washinton

 Wisdom of the Crowd: 91% of the respondents said that the storming of the Capitol Building in Washington reflect badly on the democratic system in America.

Special clinics to test covid cases

I read this news report that two people who had symptoms of the infection did not see the doctor.

I suggest that the government should appoint special clinics to test people with symptoms of covid. A list of these clinics should be provided to the public.
These patients should be given priority for testing and kept in a separate location, away from the other patients.
Preferably, these clinics should be set up for the sole purpose of covid testing.
Every person who has a temperate about 37 C and captured in the DIY temperature scanners can be advised to go to the special clinic.
The covid testing should be free for patients with symptoms. It can also carry out testing for people without symptoms for a small fee (which is subsidized).
If we can focus on dealing with people with symptoms, we can relax on the Safe Entry recording (which is costly and large useless).

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