Friday, August 14, 2020

My approach towards investing

 My trading on Tesla shares over the past two months has been quite profitable. Most times, I made profit when the share price was going up and when it was coming down.

I attribute my success to two important factors - luck and analysis. Both of which are probably of equal weight.

One can have good analysis, but if the luck is not on your side, you cannot make a profit.

Similarly, you cannot depend on luck alone. You need good analysis to make the right judgment.

I was able to read the trend for Tesla quite well, because I have been following the share very closely for more than a year.

I understand the company in great depth. I understand its market, its products, its competitive advantage.

I also have the help of my crystal ball (CB). Most times, its whispers turn out to be correct. I will not part with CB for any sum of money. (Sorry - not for sale!)

My other investments are not doing so well now. Most of them are showing paper losses. I keep them because they were grossly under-values and pay good dividend.

I am patient, waiting for their recovery. I hope to be able to tell interesting stories about this strategy some time in the future, but not now.

In this article, I explain my approach towards investing

Take early action on the vaccine

 Slightly more than half of the people agree with the action taken by President Putin to authorize the use of the Russian vaccine for covid-19.

I belong to the small majority.

My views are:

a. It is better to act earlier, in spite of the uncertainty, due to the urgency of the crisis.

b. It may not be the best or the safest vaccine, but it is better to act now, rather than wait.

c. Even if the vaccine is not 99% safe, it is not likely to cause much harm.

d. Even if the vaccine is only 50% effective, it is better than nothing.

e. If it is more harmful than expected, the use can be stopped immediately.

f. By not acting now, many people will die anyway.

I hope that the other countries will follow the lead of Russia and start the the use of their own vaccine early.

WOTC - Get people to be united

Wisdom of the Crowd: What is the most important change the govt can do to get people to be united? 46% said - release CPF at 55, 29% said - suspend GST for 3 years, 18% said - disband the GRC.

WOTC - New security law in Hong Kong

 Wisdom of the Crowd: 24% of the respondents said expect that many people will want to migrate from Hong Kong because of the new security law. The other 76% said that they will adjust to the new situation.

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Is it proper for citizens to make rude comments about their leaders?

2. Should PAP ministers take a pay cut until the covid-19 pandemic is over?

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Thursday, August 13, 2020

WOTC - Soul searching by PAP

 Wisdom of the Crowd: Minister Shanmugam said that PAP need to do some soul searching. 53% of the respondents said that they have been saying the same thing in past elections. 24% said that he does not intend to do anything about it.

WOTC: Lower votes for the PAP

 Wisdom of the Crowd: What were the key factors that led to lower vote for the PAP? 51% of the respondents said that the voters were unhappy with CECA and the influx of foreigners. 31% said that the young voters faced the pressure of the cost of living.

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues


1. Is it wise for the Russian President to approve the use of the vaccine at this stage?
2. Is it appropriate to withdraw the two bus services from Bukit Panjang now?

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Vaccine from Russia

he president of Russia announced that they have found a vaccine and have approved its use in the country. They have started large scale production.

The western media criticized the decision. There were no data about the safety and effectiveness of the vaccine. The scientists said that it normally takes 18 months for a vaccine to be proven.

I hold a different view on this matter. I believe that President Putin is making the right decision as a leader. Let me explain my view.

President Putin decided to authorize the use now, instead of waiting another 6 months. I agree with this decision, because there is need to find a vaccine.

What about the risk?

Read my assessment here.

Tuesday, August 11, 2020

Coping with economic headwinds

I am really worried for the future of Singapore. Our past business model is to provide services to the world.

We were heavily reliant on global trade, logistics, international travel, tourism, financial services and casino.

All of these industries were badly hit by the trade war between America and China and now by the covid-19 pandemic.

Quora: Why do the US, Britain, and EU think it is fine for them to have strict national security laws but criticize China for protecting HK and China's sovereignty with China's national security laws?


David Phillipson replied:

Double standards.

China never has to worry about violent protesting on the mainland, nor does it ever have to send it’s troops to deal with the public. We also never get curfew orders here, because there is never any civil unrest. This also means that without rioting, businesses are not vandalised, there is no looting and there is less risk to human safety.

Considering the US and the UK both supposedly have certain “freedoms”… One must ask “At what cost to other peoples lives and businesses are these freedoms allowed?”.

Monday, August 10, 2020

Loan to cover loss of income

 SIA did not fly. Its pilots and flight crew stayed at home and received the regular salary. They forego the flight allowance. Their take home pay dropped by half, but they still get paid.

SIA now has to reduce its staff expense further. If SIA lays off the staff, it may lose these staff, which has been well trained, when the business returns.

What can SIA do?

This problem does not apply to SIA alone. It applies to many other businesses.

At the start of the crisis, I wrote this article. I suggested that businesses should ask its staff to take no pay leave. If the business drops by 70%, the staff should take no-pay leave for 70%. Their pay will drop by 70%.

How can the staff survive? I suggested that they can take a loan from the government to cover the shortfall. Or, they can withdraw from their CPF savings for up to that amount.

The details of my suggested scheme is explained here.

WOTC: Did the PAP get a strong mandate in GE2020?

79% of the respondents said "no". 21% said "yes".

WOTC: Why did the Workers' Party get a higher share of the votes in Aljunied in GE2020?

47% said that the voters are angry at the unfair treatment given by the government in the town council issue. 23% said that the Workers Party MPs worked hard during the past five years.

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Should the govt publish the financial figures for operating public transport?

2. Should the bus and train services be streamlined to save cost?

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Berkshire Hathaway

 Berkshire Hathaway is run by Warren Buffet.

The Class A share has a price of over $300,000 USD per share. You need 1 million SGD to own 2 shares.

The Class B share is priced more affordably. It is now $209.

Want to know more?

Need to rationalize public transport

The minister for transport Ong Ye Kung explained about the cost of operating public transport in the Bukit Panjang area in this letter to the Straits Times.

He explained why it is necessary for his ministry to remove two bus services to streamline the public transport services in the Bukit Panjang area.

But the problem is not restricted with that specific area only. It probably occur with many other parts of the island.

Sunday, August 09, 2020

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Why are the ministers so quite after the election?

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WOTC - Why did PAP lose Sengkang GRC

 Wisdom of the Crowd: Why did PAP lose Sengkang GRC? 53% of the respondents said that the young voters were unhappy with job prospects and the cost of living. 34% said that the candidates from the Workers party were impressive.

WOTC - The real winners of GE2020

 Wisdom of the Crowd: Who were the real winners of GE2020? 48% said that it is the voters of Singapore. 38% said that it is the Workers Party.

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