Can the swing against the PAP be as high as 22% at the next general election?
Most people will think that this is quite unlikely.
I hold a different view. Here are my reasons:
The PAP was able to get a high vote in 2015 due to the public appreciation toward the PAP for the contribution of Mr. Lee Kuan Yew who had died earlier in the year.
I estimate that the support would have been 10%.
I expect that this swing would be totally reversed at the next general election. The public dispute between the Lee siblings, i.e. LKY's children, would certainly have demolished all the goodwill that was given to the PAP and PM Lee.
Several factors would have cause much unhappiness against the PAP.
This webpage shows the contribution of the various factors, such as the high cost of living, high salary of ministers, no value on expiry of HDB 99 year lease, unhappiness over the reserved president, and insecurity of jobs.https://tklcloud.com/Democracy/swing.aspx
The percentage swing contributed by each factor is shown in this page, based on the votes by the participants.
It is likely that there will be double counting of the factors. If we were to take half of the total for first five factors, we will get an additional swing of 12.6%. Together with the loss of 10%, the total would be 22.6%.
However, there were will be several factors in favor of the PAP - the support of new citizens and the celebrations and goodies to be handed out before the general election.
I suspect that the effect of new citizens and the impact of the goodies are over-exaggerated. They would probably have been accounted for in the previous general elections.
The new citizens would probably feel the same pressure as the old citizens after living in Singapore for five years. So, the PAP will have to count on the support of voters that became new citizens in recent years.
My own guess is that the swing against the PAP would be between 15% and 20%, but it could overshoot to reach the 22%. What is your guess?