The Workers' Party aim to win 33.3% of the seats at the next general election. That will require them to win 30 seats out of a Parliament of 89 seats.
Can they do it?
Look at the various projections here shown in this website.
If you look at a 20% swing, the WP will win 24 seats only. They have to rely on merging with the SDP to get another 9 seats, making a total of 33 seat. I do not see that scenario happening.
Here is the projection for the 20% swing:
https://tklcloud.com/Democracy/show_sim.aspx?id=286
What about the TCB factor? There is a good chance that he will work with the WP. But if TCB's team were to contest in the constituencies that were contested by the other parties in 2015, they may not win - unless TCB team is able to win over many of the PAP supporters.
Here is the projection based on a 22% swing:
https://tklcloud.com/Democracy/show_sim.aspx?id=292
The WP wins 28 seats. It is quite easy for them to win another 2 seats from the smaller parties. The NSP is expected to be inactive, so their constituencies are likely to be contested by the WP or TCB's team.
It should be easy for the WP to achieve its goal.
However, I have not factored in the damage that the WP would suffer from the outcome of the AHTC court case. If their MPs are disqualified from contesting, the damage could be severe.
There is the possibility that TCB's team may join or work with the WP to overcome this collateral damage.
I am just making my wild guess. I am no political pundit. I have no inside information.
If you wish to carry out your own simulation and interpretation, you can do it by selecting the percentage swing against PAP.
Here is the link.
https://tklcloud.com/Democracy/sim.aspx
Can they do it?
Look at the various projections here shown in this website.
If you look at a 20% swing, the WP will win 24 seats only. They have to rely on merging with the SDP to get another 9 seats, making a total of 33 seat. I do not see that scenario happening.
Here is the projection for the 20% swing:
https://tklcloud.com/Democracy/show_sim.aspx?id=286
What about the TCB factor? There is a good chance that he will work with the WP. But if TCB's team were to contest in the constituencies that were contested by the other parties in 2015, they may not win - unless TCB team is able to win over many of the PAP supporters.
Here is the projection based on a 22% swing:
https://tklcloud.com/Democracy/show_sim.aspx?id=292
The WP wins 28 seats. It is quite easy for them to win another 2 seats from the smaller parties. The NSP is expected to be inactive, so their constituencies are likely to be contested by the WP or TCB's team.
It should be easy for the WP to achieve its goal.
However, I have not factored in the damage that the WP would suffer from the outcome of the AHTC court case. If their MPs are disqualified from contesting, the damage could be severe.
There is the possibility that TCB's team may join or work with the WP to overcome this collateral damage.
I am just making my wild guess. I am no political pundit. I have no inside information.
If you wish to carry out your own simulation and interpretation, you can do it by selecting the percentage swing against PAP.
Here is the link.
https://tklcloud.com/Democracy/sim.aspx
5 comments:
Hougang looks the same for the last 20 years
Never mind same or different your hdb flat also going to zero lol
My condo going to zero lol.what do you expect??.I sign for it.
Our greatest gripe is the ever escalating Medical costs that may break our Bank account should we be unfortunate to get serious diseases that may be fatal. Next is the increasing costs of living, from electricity, to water to rubbish collection. No end one.
Next is the embarrassing Lee siblings quarrel, makes Singaporeans red in the face in front of foreigners.
Dun ever go NUH to seek medical treatment, it's the most expensive public hospital in Singapore, they even demand you to pay Deposit first at the A & E registration counter, before you go see a doctor, mostly a junior one. NUH is so used to charge their huge cohort of foreign patients that they apply charging standards to local patients too.
Hope that TCB and Lee Hsien Yang enter politics next GE, lost patience with the PAP, who acts like the Royal elites in Imperial China. They get the meat, and give us only the bones to suck.
Lucky I pay only $150K for resale 4-rm in Toa Payoh during SARS time. Cheaper than even new flat at that time. Take it as advance rental for 70 years. Treat it as coffin house. LOL
In future, many 99-yr condos will also expire worthless. Those condos that are too big, too many residents, not in central area, already max out plot ratio, not near major MRT stations (some MRT stations also damn ulu).
Now even condos in good location go enbloc also hard to find any buyers, or else buyers quote much lower price. Take it or leave it.
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