Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Market correction - how serious, how long?

Someone asked for my views on how serious is the market correction today, and how much is the market likely to fall.

It is difficult to say.

If the shock is temporary, the market may fall by 10% (ie the ST index go down to 3,000) before it recovers.

I will prefer to wait for the market to correct by 20% (say 2,700) before I make further investment. In the meantime, I am happy to earn 3% on the money market.

In 2000, the ST Index was around 2,400. It fell by almost 50% during the next two years (ie 1,200 points), before it started its recover from mid 2003.

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