Tan Kin Lian's Blog: Hottest issues in Singapore

Thursday, June 10, 2010

Hottest issues in Singapore

What are the hottest issues in Singapore to be faced in the coming general election? Based on the first 100 people who replied to my survey (with each respondent choosing up to 3 issues), the ranking of the issues is:

Rising cost of living and stagnant income - 74%
Too many foreigners in Singapore - 68%
High cost of HDB Flats - 60%
High salaries of ministers - 54%
Rising unemployment of PMETs and no retrenchment benefits - 36%
Unemployment of older workers 25%
Low wages (no minimum wage) - 25%
High GST and levies - 24%

Unemployment (of PMET, older workers) and low wages have now become "hotter" than GST and levies.

Tan Kin Lian

23 comments:

Anonymous said...: I think the worst policy is the withholding of CPF retirement money as in tne minimum sum scheme without even securing employment for the older workers as though to push them to their death. This is a blatant policy aimed at genociding the older folks.; June 10, 2010 6:24 PM
Anonymous said...: Dear Mr Tan,
You work so hard to represent and raise issues with the authorities and financial institution for those who lost their life saving in the Minibonds and High Notes saga. The ineffectiveness of the authorities and the elected MPs to assist those aggrieved should be brought back to the forefront for the coming election less they think that the whole saga can be swept under the carpet.; June 10, 2010 9:16 PM
Anonymous said...: June 10, 2010 9:16 PM

I am one of those affected by the High Notes saga. I will never forget the hands off approach taken by this gahmen and MAS, and also the way DBS tackle the whole issue. Rest assure, DBS will not see my children and their children ever opening a bank account with them.; June 10, 2010 10:25 PM
Anonymous said...: It is time for change in Singapore. Alternative government means an alternative organisation that duplicate the policies (softwares) and organisation (hardwares) on a virtual platform as a government-in-waiting poised to take over when there is a swing in alternative votes. This government-in-waiting is capable and well-organised enough to give the people a chance of a change in government. These issues can be debated in the internet not in parliament without having to be physically present. Ideas are important.

Ahkong; June 10, 2010 10:30 PM
Anonymous said...: The younger ones are concerned about high cost of HDB, and high costs of levy (e.g. gst).But the impact of high HDB prices is much greater.

The older ones are concerned about unemployment & high cost of living (gst & levies).But the impact of lack of job opportunities is much greater.

So comparatively, gst & levies ranks lower than other concerns.; June 10, 2010 11:22 PM
Anonymous said...: Myself, although unaffected by the High Notes or Minibonds saga, have over the past 10 years more or less stopped banking with local banks. And DBS is the first bank I dropped. I do most if not all my banking with foreign banks like Maybank, HSBC and Citibank now. Just better service and products. To think that local banks cannot even retain a Singaporean customer like myself goes to show how uncompetitive local banks are. They want to compete in HK or Indonesia? Don't make me laugh, just look at how DBS fared in HK.; June 11, 2010 2:00 AM
Anonymous said...: ""just look at how Dxx fared in HK."""

It is a mind set problem. they must change their mindset to a "win-win" model. You can never "wining" all the times bec u are going to loss their "hearts".
and the "employees' hearts" are alo important, not just a few "high flyers".; June 11, 2010 6:44 AM
C H Yak said...: I did a "best-worst-case" analysis based on earlier sample of 58 responsdents.

Age
Post 80+ (Born after 1980) – 13% (Gen Z)
Typo error for “39” – 1960 ~ 1970 – 46% (Gen Y)
(Missing those born 1970~1980) assumed included.
Before 1960 (Gen X) – 41% (rather high in sample)

Party & Reason
PAP 10% = Preserve economic growth 11%; consistent
Another party 90% = Change in policy 88%; consistent ( say split between no. of opposition ratio 3:2, 53%: 35%)

Past voting
PAP 34%
Another Party 25%
No chance to vote 41%

Worst / Best Case Scenario
From sampling of 58 respondents
10% vote PAP
41% of 90% = 37% no chance to vote
53% balance to vote opposition
Freak; all can vote and PAP get 10% + 37% = 47% PAP (Almost 50-50 chance)
Probability of 20% of 53%(opposition) swing to PAP = 10.6%
Best possible for PAP = 47% + 10.6% = 57.6%
Actual predicted swing against PAP = 66(previous)-57.6(best possible for PAP) = 8.4% (swing for opposition)
Predicted for best for opposition= (100-66+8.4) = 42.4%
Opposition must grab another 7.6% from PAP supporters for “zero-sum” game.; June 11, 2010 9:08 AM
C H Yak said...: That means for the 34% who voted during last election for PAP based on sample, need to know why they voted for PAP. If just for continuity to preserve economic growth, look at what will swing from this stand? The adverse side of our economy and the ruling party’s economic plan?

(1) Younger voters are afraid to lose their jobs to FT, and lower wages due to FT.
(2) The older voters, 40~50 are mainly PMETs
(3) As 41% surveyed are over, these could be voters who incurred losses in investments like Minibond.

In the past 30%+ will easily vote for opposition if contested. {See even Mr Tan claimed his blog attracts a higher proportion of people who are unhappy with the government, 34% voted for the PAP before}. If my prediction above is correct, maybe 30%+ + 8.4%, about 40% will simply vote the opposition in the next election. The critical swing is just another 10%.

The issue of employment of PMETs & older workers is one key important issue which might swing.; June 11, 2010 9:11 AM
Anonymous said...: Ref Straits Times dated 11 June. Page A22. "The PAP's new media experiment"

A friend of mine once used this phrase in exasperation after his company underwent yet another reorganization in as many years: "New Vision, same old leaders."

So what do we have here?
- New media, same old unresolved issues (reference Tan KL's Hottest Issues in Singapore posted elsewhere in this blog"

- you spend all this time, money, manpower, fanfare trumpeting a new technology ... just to avoid having to face up to actually doing the job to resolve the old unresolved issues

I really don't see how the new media will actually help solve Singapore's old and unresolved issues.

The old Singapore used to under-promise and over-deliver.

The new Singapore tend to over-promise and under-deliver.

A lot of show-and-tell. But no actual "doing."

Another startling news story,
brought to your attention by,
Yours Sincerely,
Mr Obvious Man; June 11, 2010 9:26 AM
Anonymous said...: REX comments as follows,

Regarding the first reader's comment about the government's withholding of citizen's CPF money, i think it is a necessary policy.

The government would not do such an unpopular move if not for compelling reasons. They are not stupid.

What do you think are the compelling reasons? For me, i think it is akin to "run on the bank". Somewhere along the lines, there has been a big miscalculation as to the sustainability of the funds. As we learn in Pre University Basic Economics 101, banks lend out 10 times any deposit amount (Credit Creation model) on the assumption that not all depositers will withdraw at the same time. CPF is nothing more than a Giant Bank. They take your money, create credit, make investments on behalf of Govt, do all sorts of things. The only difference: their actions are covert. Lesser mortals are not allowed to see the ongoings, the relation with SWF's and other risk bearing strategies. Even ex President Ong Teng Cheong got burned when he wanted to check the situation, never never forget that.

So a lot of assumptions are used when the credit worthiness of CPF funds are to be figured. Due to the secrecy, ordinary citizens are forced to make some speculations, such as the possibilities that a grave miscalculation on the cpf basic system with regard to the project simultaneous withdrawal of CPF when citizens reach 55 (the original withdraw age). The drastic failures in investments of SWF is another factor which has possibily eroded the credit worthiness of the system.

Therefore the goverhment (in my opinion of course) is left with the only option = to restrict free-and-easy cPF withdrawal at age 55, and instead create a phased withdrawal (with its accompanying PR actions telling us all about life long annuities, etc). This will preserve the integrity of the entire system and avoid complete collapse and loss of confidence. Remember CPF is just like a huge bank......

How do you solve this problem? You vote an Oppostion in, believing that you can get your CPF after that?

NO, sorry. Even if Opposition completely takes over, your CPF will still remain locked in, because the system is in fact already quite sick, in my opinion of course. If even President Ong got into trouble when trying to find out more, what hope is there?

To look at it in a twisted way, IT IS BETTER TO VOTE PAP in. Because the dark secrets of the country's wealth will remain intact. Had it been exposed, it will result in even greater damage. You may find your cpf money or most of it, all gone in real fact. In a twisted logic manner, let me suggest to all, that it is better to remain in a make-believe world created by the PAP. It is safer to remain frogs. Because you get caught even if you jump out of the well.
Twisted logic - think about it.

rex; June 11, 2010 9:37 AM
Anonymous said...: June 11, 2010 2:00 AM

You will always see long queue at particular bank ATMS, where nearby ATM got less or no queue, I do not understand why, Singaporean love to queue? or the ATM will drop gold?
For me, I do not like queue, esp for no good reason this case, I simply open an account with another bank, transfer the money online comfortably. Whenever I need cash, I always end up drawing from other bank's ATM.
Locals have unique love for the bank, they fare very well here.; June 11, 2010 10:06 AM
DEFEATED said...: The singapore economy is purring along fine.

Singaporeans are spending big ticket items like cars and homes.

Unemployed people of course do not have any spending power.. that is not the Gov's problem. They are also not concerned about unemployment since many foreigners are here and they are the ones spending and keeping the economy alive.

It gives hotels, restuarants, transport and retail lots of revenue and GST.. foreign workers also are the ones spending money, buying things to be shipped home.

Action will happen only when tourist numbers start to fall 15%
Otherwise, its all system go!

Arts festival $ 20 million
PC Fair $ 25 million
Great Singapore Sale $98 million
Singtel F1 $ 350m million
National Day Parade $ 2million
Intergrated Resorts $ 45 million
Intenational Security Summit $15 million

and more events coming up.. they do not need your money... you can remain unemployed and not get to vote.. it does not make any difference... even if you get to vote, Singaporeans are fence sitters and will vote safe..

Many people do not understand the business strategy of this Gov... yes, its business, not governing. ( they govern only when it suits their needs... like creating regulations to meet Free Trade Agreement conditions. )

Just live your life the best you can.. enjoy the warm weather, stable land ( no earthquakes ) no drug wars, no fire arms loose, no pandemics, no stock market crash and no military junta.; June 11, 2010 10:52 AM
Tan Kin Lian said...: My surveys on politics get good response - usually more than 100 on the first day. Other surveys get poorer response.

Most Singaporeans like to express their views on politics.; June 11, 2010 11:06 AM
Anonymous said...: Mr Tan,

Any indications that the authorities takes feedbacks and surveys in your blog seriously?

Your positive indications will definitely draw more responses to issues highlighted in your blog.; June 11, 2010 11:45 AM
Anonymous said...: Singaporeans are by and large political arena spectators, they talk about politics but are not actively involved.

They have infinite faith in the leadership and allow the latter to control their fates. There are growing regrets now but their fates are sealed.

The closet will not be opened until all those responsible for filling the closet are gone. All the offsprings of the closet owners will get to enjoy many generations of abundance.; June 11, 2010 12:31 PM
Singaporean said...: To Rex Comments.

I think CPF resembles a bank much lesser than showing more traits of a pyramid/ponzi scheme.

To avoid total collapse, a ponzi-style operation requires more and more contributors, while minimizing withdrawals.

More contributions can be achieved via an increasing workforce, hence the need for more "new" citizens.

Minimizing withdrawals is achieved via Minimum Sum and CPF Life, and indirectly, high HDB prices.

Having the ruling party stay in power so as to perpetuate the ability to keep everyone in the dark is not a solution.

It is a time bomb that will explode when the seams are no longer able to hold.; June 11, 2010 12:39 PM
jamesneo said...: Hi rex, it is difficult to see at the present if the cpf scheme is like what you say like a big bank or it has treaded over the line to be a ponzi scheme whereby the present payouts become dependent on future earnings.Based on their reports the cpf board affirmed that their money are independent of the government coffers. Hopefully it might be so but we cannot be certain that any future government will not be tempted to put into the board people that do not remain neutral and allow fund transfers from the cpf into other holes in the government coffers so as to appear to have low budget deficits.

Thus, the problem of IT IS BETTER TO VOTE PAP is that we are just postponing the inevitable which will make the matters worse. If the dark secrets are found out earlier maybe the measures taken would not be drastic. However, if we are forced by the market or by whistle blower or by change of government at a later stage when the problem has escalated to immense proportions like what happened in Greece, then only drastic consequence of either currency devaluation, austerity measures or large land taxes remains. Without any credible oppositions( of course just the presence of any opposition party do not always guarantee better disclosure because they may become like the US where the two parties are like two head of a single serpent), or at least a more transparent and independent auditor/judiciary system, the problems will be "extend and pretend".; June 11, 2010 1:04 PM
Anonymous said...: CH Yap,
Did you factor in the weightage of the new citizens? 100% of them will vote for the PAP, that is the reason why they are welcomed in. And the numbers are still increasing everyday.; June 11, 2010 3:12 PM
Anonymous said...: I would like to share my encounter with foreign service staff. It is stressful to meet so many of them who speaks different forms of English. I had to strain my ear and brain to listen carefully what they are trying to say. Worst of all are the mainland Chinese who expected us to speak like them. They are just refused to learn anything that are foreign to them. No wonder the Chinese in China are humiliated by the foreigners. I think they deserved it for being too proud of their own culture for which they know little about. Our PAP government had made a blunder by allowing so many foreign workers in and taking over our jobs and rice bowls. PAP fuck off!; June 11, 2010 5:04 PM
C H Yak said...: Hi Anon 3.12 PM

I hope it is "absorbed" by the 37% (37% no chance to vote) or the other 20% of 53%(opposition) swing to PAP ... if not everything would be back to square one and you are right, opposition will only grab about 30%+...simply based on scenarios just like factoring events and discounting for share prices.; June 11, 2010 5:33 PM
Anonymous said...: so PAP has already envisioned this scenario and has taken action some years back to mitigate the swing to opposition by engineering the mass import of new citizens. Talk about effective planning!; June 12, 2010 2:16 AM
Anonymous said...: The worse is when u have no job, or are "under-employed", and u see "everyone" partying around you. Very sad.; June 12, 2010 12:40 PM

Thursday, June 10, 2010

Hottest issues in Singapore

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