The government has lost the balance

I received this feedback from Mr. Fong Dear Tan, While many had applause the government for the CB measures. I think that the government has lost the balance. https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2972

Protect the elderly people from the virus

At long last, the ministers are now paying to the residents of nursing homes and the care workers.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/…/covid-19-testing-nursing-…

I guess that they are preparing to remove the circuit breaker from the general population and focus the attention with the elderly population.

I have advocated this strategy all along. I find the circuit breaker to be unnecessary, unwise and wasteful. I find the extension of the circuit breaker to be "insane".

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2971

High number of covid-19 cases in America

America has the highest number of cases and deaths of covid-19 among all the countries in the world. It has 1.3 million cases and 78,000 deaths as at 8 May 2020. Why is the number so high? https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2970

WOTC - Lower death rate

Wisdom of the Crowd. 41% of the respondents said that the death rate is lower in Singapore because of excellent medical facilities. 37% said that the virus is less lethal in warm weather.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1966

WOTC - Extension of circuit breaker

Wisdom of the Crowd: 51% of the respondents said that the circuit breaker should NOT be extended beyond 4 May. 49% said it should.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1966

South Korea prepares for second wave

Coronavirus: South Korea bracing for 'inevitable' second wave

https://www.straitstimes.com/…/coronavirus-south-korea-brac…?

TKL comments. I am afraid that a second, third and subsequent wave is inevitable. It is very difficult to contain the virus.


It is better to adopt a strategy to protect the vulnerable population, i.e. the elderly and those with underlying medical conditions.

See here:
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2966

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Will Singapore face a challenge in creating jobs for locals?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

The negative aspect of lockdown

Many governments implement lockdown to stop the spread of the covid-19 virus. It may be the wrong strategy. It may make the pandemic more serious. Why? https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2966

WOTC - Encourage locals to take the jobs now done by foreigners

Wisdom of the Crowd: 58% of the respondents want the government to improve the wages and working conditions to encourage locals to do the jobs now done by foreign workers. 42% want to continue to use foreign workers for these jobs.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1965

WOTC - Improve the living conditions in the worker dormitories

Wisdom of the Crowd: 72% of the respondents said that we should reduce the overcrowding of the worker dormitories. 20% said that the hygiene should be improved.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1964

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Should we reduce reliance on foreign workers?
2. Should we continue the segregation between locals, PR and foreigners?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

WOTC - Compulsory to wear face mask

Wisdom of the Crowd: 46% of the respondents support the decision to make wearing of face masks mandatory. The other 52% have a different opinion.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1963

WOTC - Biggest blunder by ministerial task force

Wisdom of the Crowd: 52% of the respondents said that the biggest blunder made by the ministerial task force is failing to deal early with the transmission in the foreign worker dormitories. 33% said that it is the delay in calling for the use of face masks.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1962

Are we paying for the cost of relying too much on foreign workers?

To answer this question, I like to estimate the cost of the relief measures caused by the economic downturn and more specifically the circuit breaker measures.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2957

Containment of Covid-19 Spread

I sent this letter to the two ministers who co-chair the task force two week ago. I sent them a reminder after a week. They did not acknowledge or reply on both occasions.

Maybe, they were already checked into IMH (institute of mental health). Hahaha.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2956

Creating jobs for Singaporeans after the pandemic

The Singapore economy will be transformed.

The global economy in the future will have less global trade. Most countries will manufacture a bigger proportion of their products at home. This will affect Singapore badly. There will be less global trade and the need for financial services. Many of the well paying jobs in the past will disappear.

How can Singaporeans, especially the younger ones, find jobs in the future?
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2955

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Will international travel and tourism recover after the pandemic is over?
2. How will the covid-19 pandemic be eradicated?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

WOTC - Teleconferencing

Wisdom of the Crowd: 52% of respondents are not familiar with the use of teleconferencing. For the remaining 48%, more than half prefer to use Zoom over the other platforms.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1961

WOTC - Most popular teleconferencing platform

Wisdom of the Crowd: 60% of respondents are willing to use Zoom for teleconferencing. The other 40% prefer to use other platforms.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1960

Will international travel and tourism recover after the pandemic?

The pandemic will be over by mid 2021 or earlier. It may die off naturally or a vaccine will be found.

It is likely that international travel and tourism will resume.

But I do not expect it to return to the level that occurred prior to the pandemic. Here are my reasons:

http://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2951

Quora: What do you think of Trump saying that the U.S. is going to seek compensation from China over COVID-19?

Kevin Randolf, Self Employed, answered

What for?

The truth, and that's what any court outside the USA looks at, is that the USA had as much warning and probably more than everyone in the world and yet failed to respond indeed it played politics and lied to its population about the seriousness of the pandemic, taking no real steps to address the issue until 8 weeks after most of the world!

The USA also had at least 12 personnel within the WHO during the entire progress of this outbreak!

However I would suspect that Iraq's people have a rock solid case against the USA for the 2nd Iraq war and subsequent theft of it's oil assets amongst other things!

This is backed up solid evidence and even confessions!

We all know that America considers itself above the law anyway so nothing will happen, hell if you're American you can drive on the wrong side of the road in a foreign country and kill someone and your government will help you escape!

So I hope you'll excuse the world when it doesn't agree with America, yet again, refusing to take responsibility for it's own actions and continually blaming others!

Your credibility is zero!

Changing to a new lifestyle

The circuit breaker caused people to work from home and children to use home based learning. People also get familiar with ordering food to be delivered to the home.

After the pandemic, I expect the following change to the lifestypes in Singapore.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2947

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Do you support the extension of the circuit breaker?

2. Will Singapore's economy recover after the circuit breaker?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

WOTC - Home based earning

Wisdom of the Crowd: 63% of the respondents said that the students find it difficult to carry out home learning.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1958

WOTC - Working at home

Wisdom of the Crowd: 68% of the respondents like working at home for office based jobs.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1959

Bring manufacturing back home

After the pandemic, I see many countries will try to bring manufacturing back to their home countries. They will want to shorten the supply chain. It will be reverse of globalization that has happened during the past three decades. 

This move will be driven by two factors. One is the need to create jobs in the home country. The other is to have security in the supply of essential products.

There will be greater emphasis on the security of food supplies. Many countries will build their agriculture. Governments will create stockpiles for food staples that has to be grown in other countries.

Businesses will still reply on overseas supplies for some of their raw materials. They will have to build inventories of their raw materials to prevent a disruption of supplies. For essential products, a bigger inventory will be required.

Governments are also likely to create stockpiles of essential materials and food.

To make local manufacturing viable, countries will have to implement tariffs on imports. We will see a return to a higher level of protectionism. World trade will reduce to some extent, but not totally. 

In the new economic order, I see more protectionism, less globalization, building of stockpiles of essential products, less world trade. 

Singapore will be badly affected by these trends, as we provide logistic services and have a small home market. We will have to adjust to the changes ahead. 

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2946

Expansion of isolation facilities

I wish to give credit to the ministerial task force for the speed in which they have expanded the isolation facilities for people who are tested positive for the covid-19 virus.

They have already added 18,000 beds within a short time and plan to add another 23,000 beds by the end of June. See report.

This was useful to accommodate the recent spite in cases, most of which are found in the foreign worker dormitories.

My friend, who is a skeptic, said that this is not an outstanding achievement. It does not require highly paid ministers to arrive at this decision or to oversees its execution. He said that many other countries have also responded in this manner. We only need to follow their lead.

My friend also pointed out that many ordinary people have suggested earlier to expand the facilities. These people are not as highly paid as the ministers.

I do not want to argue against my friend, the skeptic. So, I will give credit to our highly paid ministers for their good response.

I do criticize the ministers for their bad judgment in many aspects of their handling of this crisis, especially with the costly and unnecessary circuit breaker. That is a separate issue.

I have put up several dozen posts on the handling of the covid-19 crisis over the past two months. See here. My approach is different from the ministerial task force on many issues. I will leave it to history to judge whether the ministerial task force had acted correctly.


https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2945

Life will be different after the pandemic

After the covid-19 pandemic is over, we will see a different world. Life will be different.

Many countries will bring their production back home. They will rely less on China to manufacture the essential products.

There will be more online activities - schooling, work from home, marketing.

GDP growth will be slower. It will be better for the environment and reduce the harm from climate change.

I will share views of the new way of life from other thinkings. I will also share my views.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2942​​​​​​​

Government act like monkey see, monkey do

Governments act like monkey see, monkey do. Singapore is worse. We follow other government blindly, even when our risk is quite different from them.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2937

Swedish economy also suffered a downturn

Mr. Tan
You favored the approach taken by Sweden where they did not have a lockdown and suffer a smaller economic impact.

Can you read this report. It said that Sweden will suffer an economic decline that may be worse than other countries that have a lockdown.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-sweden-economy-to-contract-as-severely-as-the-rest-of-europe.html?&qsearchterm=sweden

What you say now?

TKL reply
Hello. The circuit breaker measures adopted in Singapore caused an estimated $60 billion for 6 million people. We also suffer a big economic decline.

Sweden has a population of 10 million people? Did they spend $100 billion (SGD) to provide relief measures? I do not think they spent money to this scale. I think that they real cost is quite modest, compared to Singapore.

Similarly America had to provide economic relief of several trillion dollars. Their spending per capita is similar to Singapore.

It was possible to reduce the spread of the virus through other measures, instead of a lockdown or circuit breaker. Our minister made a poor judgment to impose the circuit breaker measures.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2936

Quora: After the covid-19 threat is over, will you be less likely to purchase Chinese-made products?

Lance Chambers answered:

I don’t have a problem with China.

They didn’t create the virus. They didn’t ALLOW it to escape their borders and infect others.

They worked as hard as they could to stop it and it seems that they have succeeded.

At the start when they first realised that Civid-19 wasn’t the regular flu that erupts in China it was too late. They let the world know that this was different as soon as they realised the truth.

They are donating PPE to a host of nations that are in dire need and even to the US. After all the insults being aimed at them by the US. I would not have sent America anything if I was in control of China. Maybe it a good thing I’m not in charge.

In fact I think I will start buying from Alibaba from now on and leave Amazon alone. Not only will that improve my bank balance but I will be buying from what I believe is a far more moral nation.

Why is NRIC now used for entry to malls and supermarkets?

Many people question why are malls and supermarkets asking people to bring their NRIC when private establishments are not allowed to ask for NRIC under the law.

My answer - the law is STUPID. The NRIC is the best way to identify a person. It should not be a secret.

The ban on the use of NRIC was another bad judgment by the government. We are now seeing problems arising from the bad law.

This government made a lot of costly policy mistakes that harm the economy, increase our cost of doing business and damage our competitiveness.

The ban on the use of NRIC has caused the private establishments to send tens of million dollars to change their computer system. It also increased their operating costs.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/…/covid-19-bring-nric-super…?

Dealing with the economic downturn

I have written several posts on I would deal with the economic downturn caused by the covid-19 pandemic.

My most important post is here:
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2682

Here are a collection of posts on dealing with the economic downturn.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/latest.aspx?idorg=226

Singapore's response to the covid-19 crisis

Someone asked me - what are my views about covid-19.

He was a regular follower. I am surprised that he had to ask this question. Maybe he was not paying attention.

I refer him to this website. I must have put up several dozen posts on this topic.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/latest.aspx?idorg=215

I can summarise my key view.

The virus is mild in Singapore. It resulted in 14 deaths. Only 22 are now in ICU. In comparison, America has 61,000 deaths.

Our death rate is 2 per million. America is 168. Some countries in Europe have a death rate between 300 to 520.

The virus is serious in other countries. It is mild in Singapore.

To stop the spread of the virus, we could have followed the practice in S Korea and Taiwan. They strengthen social distancing and encourage the use of face mask. They did not implement any lockdown or circuit breaker.

Our lockdown will probably cost the government $60 billion (my estimate). It is a LOT OF MONEY. It is not $60 million. It is BILLIONS. It could have been avoided.

Several hundred thousand livelihoods were severely disrupted. They involved workers and the self employed. Most of them do not get adequate compensation.

I know that there are many cases discovered among the foreign workers living in the crowded dormitories. It was possible to isolate the infected people and to quarantine those who are not sick.

We would have to stop work in the construction and other worksites which rely on these foreign workers as most of the foreign workers were isolated or quarantined.

There was no need to stop work in the workplaces for the locals. The risk of transmission is low and the impact is not serious.

My views are based on my reading of reports from experts all over the world and my special analysis of the data in Singapore and around the world.

I form my opinion after careful study and analysis. I do not give comments out of ignorance or prejudice.

I disagree with the logic put up by many people. They argue that the virus was dangerous in other countries. They said that we would see similar deaths if we do not implement the same measures that they did.

Their views ignore the facts. The virus is mild in Singapore. We are not seeing the same kind of hospitalization, intensive care and deaths.

I disagree with the circuit breaker when it was first introduced and when it was extended. 

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2934

NTUC website for SIRS application is down

My friend tried to login to this website, operated by NTUC, to submit an application for the Self Employed Income Relief scheme. He was not able to login.

He has been trying several times for a few days. He was not able to login.

He has wasted a lot of time. This is probably the experience of several tens of thousand of applicants.

Maybe several hundred thousand applicants are trying to login .

I can make a guess what has happened. The website was designed to carry out the entire process flow. This is a complicated process, as it probably requires to check the entered data against many government websites. Any of these links could be a cause of failure.

The complicated system can probably handle a limited number of transactions every minute. When the volume exceeds this capacity, it is likely to crash the system.

This is probably what had happened.

If I were to design the system, I would create a light weight website that allows the applicant to enter just the essential details - name, email, telephone, occupation.

It will not attempt to ask for documents to be uploaded or to verify the information.

My lightweight website is considered as stage 1.

I will then send an email to the applicants with a link to go to the full website to go through the entire process. I will time the sending out of the email so that the volume is controlled to a level that the system can cope. This will not crash the system.

Stage 1 can be considered to be a queuing system. It will manage stage 2 to spread out the actual processing of the applications.

I hope that a person in charge can work on this this suggestion soon.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2933

WOTC - Vote in the general election

Wisdom of the Crowd: 90% of the respondents said that they will vote non-PAP at the general election.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1957

WOTC - Performance of ministers in Task Force

Wisdom of the Crowd: 88% of the respondents have a negative opinion about the performance of the ministers in the task force.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1956

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Is the rally in the global stock market justified?
2. Do the infected foreign workers pose a serious danger to the general community?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

Do not be caught looking like an idiot

Think before you make your comment or ask stupid questions.
Do not be caught looking like an idiot. OK?

Read this post
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2928

Testing of 300,000 foreign workers

I have seen comments by many people - why can't we test all the foreign workers in the dormitory at one go? Why are we testing them in small batches every day?

The answer is simple.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2928

Herd immunity among the foreign workers?

We may already have achieved herd immunity among the foreign workers. What does this mean?

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2927

Sale of regulatory credit by Tesla

The average forecast of Wall Street analysts was a loss of $0.36 per spare for Tesla for 1Q 2020. The actual results showed a profit of $1.24 per share.

Why were the analysts wrong? One contributing factor was the income of $354 million from the sale of regulatory credit, which is 64% higher than 1Q of 2019.

What is this regulatory credit? It is given to a car manufacturer based on the qualifying vehicles that it sold. This is to encourage manufacturers to move to electric vehicles.

If the car manufacturer did not achieve its quota, it has to pay a penalty on the shortfall. Alternatively, it can buy the credit from another manufacturer like Tesla.

As Tesla makes only electric vehicles, it has a lot of regulatory credit to sell to other manufacturers.

The question is - why does Tesla sells more credit during 1Q 2020 than normal? The answer is simple - Tesla lowers the price of the regulatory credit to get the revenue booked in the quarter, so that it can show a profit.

It is a simple business strategy. All businesses lower the price to increase the sales, right?

In spite of the challenges for 2Q 2020, I expect that Tesla will continue to make a profit. They will then qualify to be included in the S&P 500.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2926

Why are some foreign workers not infected?

I have revised this article about the infection of the foreign workers living in dormitories. Instead of creating a panic, I wish to suggest that the findings actually suggest some good news.

http://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2920

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Was it wise to extend the circuit breaker?

2. Will the second wave of covid-19 be more serious?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

Win a book prize

A book prize will be given out to all participants who submitted at least 10 votes for the Wisdom of the Crowd website for this month. It will close tomorrow.

To win this prize, you can vote now.
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/u_issue.aspx

WOTC - Extension of circuit breaker

Wisdom of the Crowd: 67% of the respondents support the extension of the circuit breaker by another month. 33% disagree.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1955

WOTC - TraceTogether app

Wisdom of the Crowd: 19% of the respondents have tried the TraceTogether app and like it. 17% tried it and gave it up. The others are not aware about it.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1954

Will there be a second wave of the covid-19

Many countries have implemented strict lockdown measures and have seen a reduction in new cases.

They are worried about the risk of a second wave of infections after they relaxed the lockdown or when the weather becomes cold again after another six months.

My reasoning is that the second wave will be less severe. Here are my reasons:

a) After the current wave, a high proportion of the population would have been exposed to the virus and have developed some form of immunity. During the next wave, the virus will cause less harm.

b) It is likely that the more vulnerable segment of the population, i.e. the elderly and those with underlying conditions, would have died during the first wave. Those who survive would probably be stronger.

This is my reasoning based on logic, common sense and my reading of many articles on the virus. I hope that I am right.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2921

Why is only 25% of foreign workers is tested positive?

During the past two weeks, about 3,000 tests are carried out each day with the foreign workers living in dormitories. About 750 are found to be infected. This represents an infection rate of 25%.

Many people panicked and worried about the 750 new cases (or thereabouts) that are identified each day.

I like to ask the question - what happened to the other 75%? Surely, if the virus is so contagious, the foreign workers are living so densely together, and a large number are already infected, we should expect 100% to be infected?

I have positive news to share with you.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2920

Circuit breaker caused economic downturn

Bad news for Japan and Singapore. Economic problems ahead

Japan, Singapore could be the worst-hit Asian economies in the coronavirus pandemic, says Moody's Analytics - https://www.cnbc.com/…/japan-singapore-worst-hit-asian-econ…

TKL comment. Singapore would not be badly hit if it had just continued its containment measures, i.e. safe distancing and wear face mask, without calling the circuit breaker for four weeks. It is insane now to extend the circuit breaker for another four weeks.

The impact of the virus is quite mild. Although there was a large increase of over 10,000 new cases over the past three weeks, the death rate remained at 2 per million (compared to 200 to 500 in America and some countries in Europe) and the ICU cases is steady at less than 30 (actually 22 today).

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2916

Contact tracing in Germany

We can adopt this approach to carry out contact tracing more efficiently and ensure that there is proper follow up and avoid duplication of work and confusion.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2915

Mobile app from DBS

When DBS introduced its mobile app for personal banking and corporate banking, I tried them and gave up.

I found the setup process to be too difficult and troublesome. the instructions were confusing.

A few months later, I tried the mobile apps again. This time I have to get the help from the support staff. I managed to overcome the difficult set up process.

I have now got used to these apps. I find it to be quite convenient and useful.

I still find the apps to be quite complicated. They have too many functions that I do not need and add to the confusion. But I managed to identify the functions that I need and learn how to use them.

I will give DBS a good rating for their apps. But I wish that they had kept them simpler and most certainly have a simpler set up process.

I hope that they will learn, but apparently, they do not listen.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2914

Deaths due to covid-19

As at 26 April, a total of 207,000 people have died from the covid-19 virus around the world. Based on projection, this number is likely to be between 500,000 to 1 million by the end of 2020.

In my view, this is not the additional deaths caused by the covid virus. Most of these deaths would have occurred anyway, but many are being blamed on this virus.

Let me explain my view.

About 3 million people die from pneumonia each year, before the appearance of the covid virus.

Most of the people who died from the covid virus come from this group. If the covid virus did not appear, these people would still have died from pneumonia, caused by a virus, bacterial or fungi. The actual germ would probably not be identified. This year, the covid virus will get the blame for many of these deaths.

It is possible that the covid virus is directly responsible for some of the deaths.

But for many of the deaths outside of the hospital, the covid virus will get the blame if it is found in the body of the deceased - even though it might not be the main cause of the death.

We have to wait for the total figures of death from pneumonia and covid-19 to appear. If this total is higher than the 3 million that is counted in prior years, the virus would have caused the additional deaths.

I react to the pandemic with a sense of calmness. Even though I know that it is dangerous, I do not wish to exaggerate its impact.

I agree to the precautions that have to be taken to avoid the spread of the virus to the elderly and the people with underlying health conditions. But I do not react with panic about the spread of the virus to the young people.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2912

Most new cases are mild

Today, 26 April, is day 19 of the circuit breaker.

The ministers panicked and called the circuit breaker when they saw the number of new cases jumped up. Over the past two weeks, the cases jumped by several hundreds and some days over one thousand a day.

The total cases must have jumped by by almost 10,000 during this period.

I monitored the number of patients in intensive care unit (ICU) due to covid virus. It remained stable at the current level, which is less than 30,.

In spite of the large number of new cases that have been reported, we did not see any large increase in ICU cases. Most of the new cases are mild.

The number of deaths increase by 1 or 2 during this period, to reach a total of 12.

If the virus is serious, I would expect the ICU cases to jump up by a large number during the past 2 weeks. It did not happen.

As of today, the message from cov.sg showed the following:

total cases: 12,693
hospitalised: 1,214 (24 in ICU)
in community facilities: 10,465
fatalities - 12
total discharged: 1,002

Most of the new cases are being monitored at the community facilities. Our hospitals are not overwhelmed.

There is no need for the public to be alarmed about the large numbers of new cases that are reported each day. Even the large number of unlinked cases are not important - because they do not lead to the increase of the critically ill (i.e. ICU cases).

It seemed the the covid virus is rather mild in Singapore, unlike the case in other countries with cold climates.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2908

Carry out a random test on the population

It is important for the government to carry out a random test to estimate the proportion of the population that has already been infected by the covid virus.

This will help them to make better decision on how to deal with the virus. They should avoid extreme measures that may be unnecessary and are so costly to the economy and to the livelihood of several hundred thousand families.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwIimYSTvlQ

A better way to capture contact tracing detail

China has introduced an app for contract tracing. The public has to use a mobile phone and scan a QR code. The app will show the color code and identify if the person is okay or need to be tested.

It is a good approach.

I have already developed a better approach. Instead of the public using a mobile phone (and some elderly people or children do not carry a mobile phone), they can use a QR code that is pasted to a transit card and use it for contact tracing.

As an alternative, a new transit card can be issued with the QR code already embedded. The public does not need to go through a separate process of pasting the QR code.

The checker will use a mobile phone to read the QR code. It works like the app in China but works in reverse.

I have prepared this video to show how my system works. I hope that the people in charge in Singapore can accept this idea. We can have a solution that is as good, actually better, than China.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcRQVUZOE4w&t=36s

Give your vote here:
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2904

Perhaps 7% of people in Singapore already got the virus

New York state carried out a random test and found 13.9% of the population already infected. The rate is 21.2% in New York City.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/04/23/coronavirus-new-york-millions-residents-may-have-been-infected-antibody-test/3012920001/

If a random test is carried out in Singapore, I expect to see a rate of 7% (one third of New York City). This means that 400,000 people in Singapore would have already been infected.

I estimate a lower rate in Singapore, compared to New York City, because of our warm climate. The WHO statistics showed that 12% of the people who have been tested are found to be positive. The testing was carried out mainly with the foreign workers and the people who have been in contact or with symptoms.

The government now reports very low new cases in the community. This is likely to be grossly understated. We are seeing a very low number because so few people are being tested.

Even though more people are likely to have been infected in Singapore, we do not need to panic. The death rate from the virus is quite low in Singapore. Very few people need ICU treatment.

We only need to worry when these numbers spite up many fold. So far, they have remain stable.

It is important for Singapore to carry out a random test now. The actual data will guide the policy makers to make better decisions on how to deal with the virus.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2903

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. What is the biggest mistake made by the ministerial task force?

2. Will the increase in infection lead to many deaths in Singapore?


Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

WOTC - Use of data for contact tracing

Wisdom of the Crowd: 67% of the respondents support the use of mobile phone location data for contact tracing. 33% worry that it is invasion of privacy.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1952

WOTC - Accommodation for foreign workers

Wisdom of the Crowd: 38% of the respondents said that we should reduce our reliance on foreign workers. 62% said that we should provide better accommodation for them.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1953

Focus on useful activities to combat the covid-19 virus

I visited Greenwich V mall. I had to queue up before entering the mall. The security officer took the temperature of the shoppers. I recorded 35 C. I asked the officer to retake the temperature. It still record 35 C. I told her that I was just taken out of the fridge. 

It is clear that the temperature gun is not working properly. But the security officer does not know.

I had to record my name and contact number. The recording of this contact tracing details was what caused the delay in the queue.

I wonder how the contact tracing detail can be used. If an infected person visit the mall, will all the shoppers who visited the mall on the same day be traced?

I think that this is a waste of time. But we are doing it all the place, perhaps in a few thousand malls and offices. We have been doing it for several months.

Does the ministerial task force pay attention to this matter? Do they realize that they are distracting people from the real risks of spreading the disease, with the useless activities?

I prefer that the security officer spend the time to show people how they can use the sanitizers and help them check their face masks.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2902

Death rate from covid-19 in Sweden

Some people said that Sweden did not impose a lockdown and that has led to a high death rate from covid-19.

I want to share the following facts.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2898

Quora: Ask China to pay compensation for covid-19 losses

Yan Cao, former International Trade

Updated Apr 8

How likely is it Donald Trump will suggest China should pay compensation for the economic impact of covid-19 on the US and what would his reasoning be?

Yes,Trump should do that,why not?

But wait a minute, all of sudden I thought of some other countries. Vietnam might request America to pay 1000 billions of dollars for the lives Americans killed in Vietnam War. North Korea would increase that price tag to $10,000 billions. What about U.S. invasion of Iraq without finding Saddam’s MDW ? How many billions of dollars U.S. should pay to 151,000 people killed there ?

Cuba ,Venezuela and Iran would demand the U.S. to pay compensation for the huge loss caused by U.S. sanctions and embargo.

Hundreds of thousands of victims of 2009 H1N1 deadly flu might request for their compensation….,on and on ,never ending.

Covid-19 infection rate in the community

What is the infection rate of covid-19 in the community.

The WHO statistics showed that 94,796 tests were carried out in Singapore and 10,141 (10.7%) were found to be infected.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2894

Evil or stupid?

My friend made this observation.

He said. The ministers know that the corona virus is not lethal. But they ordered and extended the circuit breaker to scare the people that the virus is spreading fast and they are doing something to stop it.

They know that the new cases will drop by end of May, when they complete the testing of the foreign workers.

They will then announce that their circuit breaker had worked and the gullible people will be grateful for their excellent stewardship. Then they will call the general election - as the crisis is over.

TKL said - But they would have damaged the livelihood of a few hundred thousand people. It will take a long term for the damage to be repaired.

If this is the case, that the ministers had done an evil thing. I hope that the people will not be fooled by this deception.

So, the ministers are either evil or stupid. Which one?

Worrying about the unknown

Many people are worried about the covid-19 virus. They worry about the mutation of the virus. They worry about how long the virus can spread with people that have or do not have symptoms. They worry about the reinfection of the people who have been cured.

I ask them to look beyond the unknowns and focus on what is known and staring us in the eye.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2893

WOTC - Circuit breaker measures

Wisdom of the Crowd: 83% of the respondents said that the circuit breaker measures were necessary to stop the spread of the virus.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1951

WOTC - Relief measures

Wisdom of the Crowd: 89% of the respondents said that the three relief packages will be largely wasted and will not take care of the long term challenges facing the people.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1950

facebook.com/kinlian

I put up several posts every day in my Facebook page, which are not repeated in my Blog.

You can go to that page and Like it.

www.facebook.com/kinlian

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Was it wise to extend the circuit breaker measures?

2. Was the virus well contained?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

Testing for the covid-19 virus

Somebody asked the questions - why does it take so long to test the foreign workers? Why can't we test the locals also? Why do we restrict the testing to only people with symptoms? Can we test everybody?

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2892

Difficult to read the MOH website

I had a lot of trouble to search the MOH website for statistics on the covid-19 cases.

I finally arrived at this webpage
https://www.moh.gov.sg/covid-19

It was a confusing page. It provided links to the following:
 

a) situation report
b) Interactive situation report

The first link lead to another page that contains the daily report in PDF. I am not able to download or view the PDF.

The second link took a long time to load and presents graphs that are hard to follow.

It would be more useful if MOH would just give the tables in Excel or PDF that can be easily displayed or downloaded.

They should just follow what is done in the WHO website.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus

I cannot understand why MOH has to make life so difficult for the public.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2891

Take initiative according to the situation

I watched the performance of Phantom of the Opera on YouTube.
There was a segment that is relevant to Singapore and I like to share the moral of the incident.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2890

Elderly woman insist on eating at the hawker center

Someone shared a video about an elderly woman who insisted on eating at the table in the hawker center. The enforcement officer asked her to eat at home, but she refused. She shouted "You can fine me. I don't care".

Most people think that the woman was acting in an irresponsible manner. She refused to comply with the law and with the request of the enforcement officer.

I share a different perspective.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2889

Rationale of contact tracing

Contact tracing is effective when the number of infected persons is low, say less than say 500. It is possible to trace all the people who have been in contact with the infected person and ask them to go for testing or isolation.

It is difficult to carry out contact tracing when there is a large number of infected people in the community. Any new case could be infected by any of the previously infected person. It will be difficult to trace the source of contact. It might even give misleading results - for example X is thought to be infected by Y when he was actually infected by Z.

During the past few weeks, we read about several tens of new cases which could not be traced.  The cumulative total of untraced cases is not reported, but is estimated to number a few hundreds.

I think that it is time to abandon the contact tracing efforts, as it takes a lot of resources and do not provide any useful outcome. 

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2885

Quora: President Trump tweeted that 17,000 people died from Swine Flu under Obama. How does this compare to his Coronavirus numbers?

Someone replied:

First, the swine flu did not kill 17,000 people, as Trump maintained in his tweet. Nor did it kill 14,000, the figure he cited days earlier. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has estimated that H1N1 killed about 12,500 Americans between April 2009 and 2010, far fewer people than typically die each year from the flu. (Trump has gotten this figure right on other occasions.)

Second, the president’s characterization of the government’s response does not match reality. If anything, the response to H1N1 was swift in comparison to the current administration’s handling of the coronavirus.

“I assume what he’s trying to say is somehow he’s doing a much better job,” Kathleen Sebelius, secretary of health and human services under Obama, said in an interview Wednesday. “I just find that totally baffling. Anybody who looks at the comparisons very quickly understands that this is not the case.”

WOTC - Re-use face mask

Wisdom of the Crowd: 76% of the respondents said that it is safe to re-use a face mask subject to proper cleaning. 24% disagreed.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1948

WOTC - Factory to make face mask

Wisdom of the Crowd: 84% of the respondents said that Singapore should open our own factory to make face masks.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1949

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Did the government make the right judgment to call the circuit breaker?

2. What should the government do with the large infection of workers in dormitories?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

Do not falsely claim the support of others

I hosted a Zoom meeting to discuss the covid-19 crisis.

One participant said, something along this line - I, like the rest of you, do not trust the figures from China.

I send to him an email the following day. I said - I wish to be excluded from your statement. I do not share the same view as you, or other people, on this matter.

Lesson: It is a common practice, and a bad one, for a person to claim that he represents the views of other people, when he does not.

A person should stand on his own views, and not claim support from other people, which are not justified.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2881

Bad judgment by ministerial task force

The ministerial task force made a bad judgment. In early April, they panicked and decided to introduce the circuit breaker. They closed down most workplaces (except for the essential ones), food outlets and schools and ordered the people to stay at home for four weeks.

Why was this a bad judgment?
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2880

Carry out the covid test for all healthcare workers

I suggest that our health care workers should be given the covid-19 test. This is to protect their health and also the health of the patients.

In America, these workers were given priority for the covid tests, even though they were not symptomatic. All health care workers were tested.

I also suggest that the results of the tests should be published. We need to know how many workers were tested, how many were found to be infected and asymptomatic, and how many were symptomatic.

This results may give an indication of the actual spread of the virus in the general population. We can assume that the health care workers is a representative sample of the population.

With this data and results, we will be able to make better decisions on future containment measures.

Ministerial task force - I hope that you are listening.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2879

Lesson from New York

New York City is the epicenter of the covid-19 crisis in America. It had many cases and many deaths. The projections by the disease experts were dire. New York needs to have more treatment capacity. They need a thousand ventilators, maybe more.

A major project was undertaken to convert Javits Center in New York City, which was normally a convention center, into a treatment center with 1,700 beds.

The report below said that only 44 beds were used. The rest was left empty. It seemed that the projection was wrong.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2878

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Should Temasek Holdings publish the salaries of its top executives?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

WOTC - Are medicated products from China defective?

Wisdom of the Crowd: 80% of the respondents said that some of the medical products from China are defective for acceptable reasons, but the media played up this issue. 20% said that the quality is generally poor.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1946

WOTC - Competent and dedicated ministers

Wisdom of the Crowd: 14% of the respondents said that we have capable and dedicated ministers in Singapore. 86% disagreee.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1947

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Should the circuit breaker be extended beyond 4 May?
2. Why is the death rate in Singapore so much lower than America and Europe?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

WOTC - How to deal with a shortage of ventilators

Wisdom of the Crowd: 68% of the respondents preferred to set a limit on the number of days that a patient can be placed on a ventilator to make them available to new patients, in case of a shortage of ventilators.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1945

WOTC - Is the government adopting the right approach?

Wisdom of the Crowd: 84% of the respondents said that the government is adopting the wrong approach in dealing with the covid-19 crisis.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1944

Should the circuit breaker be extended beyond 4 May?

In taking this decision, I suggest that the ministerial task force look at the new cases from the community only, and exclude the new cases from the worker dormitories.

The infected workers from the dormitories have been identified by comprehensive testing and were sent to hospital wards or isolation facilities. This would have prevented their infecting the wider community.

Currently, the new cases from the community number about 30 a day. It is a small number. It has been kept at a steady level. It is not increasing at an alarming rate.

Furthermore, from the experience of the dormitories, most of the infected cases were mild.

If the task force wish to extend the circuit breaker for a further period, they have to be mindful of the cost to the government and the additional cost to the businesses and households.

Based on the information available to me, I cannot see how they can justify making any decision to extend the circuit breaker. It would be folly.

However, if they are worried about an increase in severe cases, they should prepare for more hospital beds, ventilators and health care workers to be available. They should also employ specially screened care givers to take care of the elderly sick in nursing homes and those living alone.

The additional cost to expand the medical and care facilities is miniscule, compared to the cost of extending the circuit breaker.

I hope that the ministerial task force comes out with a sensible decision.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2874

MOH now explains the increase in new cases is due to more testing

For the last few days, I have been saying - don't worry about the big increase in new cases. It is due to large scale testing of the foreign workers living in the dormitories. It is the result of the protocol that required all contacts to be traced and tested.

I also said - if the task force is carrying out more testing recently compared to the past, they should make a statement about it. It is a relevant fact for people to understand the large increase in new cases. They should not hide this relevant fact.

Well, the report today, sent by Gov.SG, said that the increase in new cases is due to more tests being carried out. It also suggested that the new cases will drop when the tests are completed.

Guess where they learn about this fact? Someone must be monitoring my post, right? They probably told the ministers about it.

Why did our highly qualified and highly paid ministers in the task force not aware about this common sense fact earlier on? Why do they panic, and call the circuit breaker, when they learned about the increase in new cases?

The circuit breaker is probably not necessary. It probably cost the economy $10 billion in losses - $4 billion from the government relief measures and (my guess) $6 billion in losses suffered by businesses and households.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2874

Stay home and be safe

I have seen this statement on many occasions - stay home and be safe.

This may be a bad idea. Why?
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2873

Rhetoric and nonsense cannot justify bad decisions

Here is one nonsensical statement that some people throw at me - Mr. Tan, what is more important, money or lives?

This is my answer. We are probably spending $10 billion ($4 billion from the government stimulus measures and $6 billion from losses suffered by businesses and households), to save lives.

Nobody made any estimate about how many lives we would save by spending the $10 billion.

It cannot be that many, because so far, only 11 people have died from covid and another 23 are in ICU and some may die also.

The irony is - after spending (rather wasting) $10 billion, we will not be saving that many lives.

Rhetoric and nonsense cannot be used to justify wasting money that can be used to alleviate poverty and hunger in Singapore or in reducing the stress from the high cost of living in Singapore. These "diseases" kill more people than covid.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2872

Need for Singapore organizations to improve their customer service

I have been worried about the appalling state of customer service in government agencies and big businesses in Singapore. I have provided many feedback over the years, but their top management does not bother. Nobody bothers.

I want to share a positive experience with a company from China. It is OPPO, which is the manufacturer of the mobile phone that I use.

Read here.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2871