Monday, April 20, 2020
Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues
Vote in
WOTC - Are medicated products from China defective?
Wisdom of the Crowd: 80% of the respondents said that some of the medical products from China are defective for acceptable reasons, but the media played up this issue. 20% said that the quality is generally poor.
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1946
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1946
WOTC - Competent and dedicated ministers
Wisdom of the Crowd: 14% of the respondents said that we have capable and dedicated ministers in Singapore. 86% disagreee.
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1947
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1947
Sunday, April 19, 2020
Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues
2. Why is the death rate in Singapore so much lower than America and Europe?
Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx
WOTC - How to deal with a shortage of ventilators
Wisdom of the Crowd: 68% of the respondents preferred to set a limit on the number of days that a patient can be placed on a ventilator to make them available to new patients, in case of a shortage of ventilators.
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1945
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1945
WOTC - Is the government adopting the right approach?
Wisdom of the Crowd: 84% of the respondents said that the government is adopting the wrong approach in dealing with the covid-19 crisis.
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1944
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1944
Should the circuit breaker be extended beyond 4 May?
In taking this decision, I suggest that the ministerial task force look at the new cases from the community only, and exclude the new cases from the worker dormitories.
The infected workers from the dormitories have been identified by comprehensive testing and were sent to hospital wards or isolation facilities. This would have prevented their infecting the wider community.
Currently, the new cases from the community number about 30 a day. It is a small number. It has been kept at a steady level. It is not increasing at an alarming rate.
Furthermore, from the experience of the dormitories, most of the infected cases were mild.
If the task force wish to extend the circuit breaker for a further period, they have to be mindful of the cost to the government and the additional cost to the businesses and households.
Based on the information available to me, I cannot see how they can justify making any decision to extend the circuit breaker. It would be folly.
However, if they are worried about an increase in severe cases, they should prepare for more hospital beds, ventilators and health care workers to be available. They should also employ specially screened care givers to take care of the elderly sick in nursing homes and those living alone.
The additional cost to expand the medical and care facilities is miniscule, compared to the cost of extending the circuit breaker.
I hope that the ministerial task force comes out with a sensible decision.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2874
The infected workers from the dormitories have been identified by comprehensive testing and were sent to hospital wards or isolation facilities. This would have prevented their infecting the wider community.
Currently, the new cases from the community number about 30 a day. It is a small number. It has been kept at a steady level. It is not increasing at an alarming rate.
Furthermore, from the experience of the dormitories, most of the infected cases were mild.
If the task force wish to extend the circuit breaker for a further period, they have to be mindful of the cost to the government and the additional cost to the businesses and households.
Based on the information available to me, I cannot see how they can justify making any decision to extend the circuit breaker. It would be folly.
However, if they are worried about an increase in severe cases, they should prepare for more hospital beds, ventilators and health care workers to be available. They should also employ specially screened care givers to take care of the elderly sick in nursing homes and those living alone.
The additional cost to expand the medical and care facilities is miniscule, compared to the cost of extending the circuit breaker.
I hope that the ministerial task force comes out with a sensible decision.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2874
MOH now explains the increase in new cases is due to more testing
For the last few days, I have been saying - don't worry about the big increase in new cases. It is due to large scale testing of the foreign workers living in the dormitories. It is the result of the protocol that required all contacts to be traced and tested.
I also said - if the task force is carrying out more testing recently compared to the past, they should make a statement about it. It is a relevant fact for people to understand the large increase in new cases. They should not hide this relevant fact.
Well, the report today, sent by Gov.SG, said that the increase in new cases is due to more tests being carried out. It also suggested that the new cases will drop when the tests are completed.
Guess where they learn about this fact? Someone must be monitoring my post, right? They probably told the ministers about it.
Why did our highly qualified and highly paid ministers in the task force not aware about this common sense fact earlier on? Why do they panic, and call the circuit breaker, when they learned about the increase in new cases?
The circuit breaker is probably not necessary. It probably cost the economy $10 billion in losses - $4 billion from the government relief measures and (my guess) $6 billion in losses suffered by businesses and households.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2874
I also said - if the task force is carrying out more testing recently compared to the past, they should make a statement about it. It is a relevant fact for people to understand the large increase in new cases. They should not hide this relevant fact.
Well, the report today, sent by Gov.SG, said that the increase in new cases is due to more tests being carried out. It also suggested that the new cases will drop when the tests are completed.
Guess where they learn about this fact? Someone must be monitoring my post, right? They probably told the ministers about it.
Why did our highly qualified and highly paid ministers in the task force not aware about this common sense fact earlier on? Why do they panic, and call the circuit breaker, when they learned about the increase in new cases?
The circuit breaker is probably not necessary. It probably cost the economy $10 billion in losses - $4 billion from the government relief measures and (my guess) $6 billion in losses suffered by businesses and households.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2874
Stay home and be safe
I have seen this statement on many occasions - stay home and be safe.
This may be a bad idea. Why?
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2873
This may be a bad idea. Why?
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2873
Rhetoric and nonsense cannot justify bad decisions
Here is one nonsensical statement that some people throw at me - Mr. Tan, what is more important, money or lives?
This is my answer. We are probably spending $10 billion ($4 billion from the government stimulus measures and $6 billion from losses suffered by businesses and households), to save lives.
Nobody made any estimate about how many lives we would save by spending the $10 billion.
It cannot be that many, because so far, only 11 people have died from covid and another 23 are in ICU and some may die also.
The irony is - after spending (rather wasting) $10 billion, we will not be saving that many lives.
Rhetoric and nonsense cannot be used to justify wasting money that can be used to alleviate poverty and hunger in Singapore or in reducing the stress from the high cost of living in Singapore. These "diseases" kill more people than covid.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2872
This is my answer. We are probably spending $10 billion ($4 billion from the government stimulus measures and $6 billion from losses suffered by businesses and households), to save lives.
Nobody made any estimate about how many lives we would save by spending the $10 billion.
It cannot be that many, because so far, only 11 people have died from covid and another 23 are in ICU and some may die also.
The irony is - after spending (rather wasting) $10 billion, we will not be saving that many lives.
Rhetoric and nonsense cannot be used to justify wasting money that can be used to alleviate poverty and hunger in Singapore or in reducing the stress from the high cost of living in Singapore. These "diseases" kill more people than covid.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2872
Need for Singapore organizations to improve their customer service
I have been worried about the appalling state of customer service in government agencies and big businesses in Singapore. I have provided many feedback over the years, but their top management does not bother. Nobody bothers.
I want to share a positive experience with a company from China. It is OPPO, which is the manufacturer of the mobile phone that I use.
Read here.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2871
I want to share a positive experience with a company from China. It is OPPO, which is the manufacturer of the mobile phone that I use.
Read here.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2871
Saturday, April 18, 2020
Positive cases detected through testing of patients at clinics
There was a report that several patients visiting clinics were tested at random for covid-19 and a certain number was found to be positive. This suggested that the community spread was more widespread than thought previously.
I was not surprised by this finding. It would be more helpful if the ministry of health disclosed the number that were tested and the number that were found to be positive and the proportion that were asymptomatic.
This is actually good news for the people in Singapore and probably bad news for the ministerial task force.
Why do I say so? It might expose their incompetence!
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2869
I was not surprised by this finding. It would be more helpful if the ministry of health disclosed the number that were tested and the number that were found to be positive and the proportion that were asymptomatic.
This is actually good news for the people in Singapore and probably bad news for the ministerial task force.
Why do I say so? It might expose their incompetence!
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2869
Enforcing the wearing of mask
I saw a few videos, shared through social media, about the difficulties faced by the enforcement officers in getting people to wear the mask. The officers were pleading with the public, often in a loud voice, to observe the regulations.
Who is to blame for these incidents?
a) The public who does not comply with the new regulations?
b) The enforcement officers who are adopting the enforcement in a rigid manner?
Here are my views.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2868
Who is to blame for these incidents?
a) The public who does not comply with the new regulations?
b) The enforcement officers who are adopting the enforcement in a rigid manner?
Here are my views.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2868
Excellent customer service from Xiaomi
I wish to commend Xiaomi for their excellent customer service.
My smart band 3 failed within the 1 year warranty period. I searched online for information on how to claim on the warranty.
I found a website that allowed me to send a message to the customer service location. The online form required me to fill up my name, email, telephone and the detail of my request.
I was able to submit the online form easily. It took me just one minute.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2867
My smart band 3 failed within the 1 year warranty period. I searched online for information on how to claim on the warranty.
I found a website that allowed me to send a message to the customer service location. The online form required me to fill up my name, email, telephone and the detail of my request.
I was able to submit the online form easily. It took me just one minute.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2867
Analyze the data obtained from the covid tests
The ministerial task force is probably carrying out large scale testings of the foreign workers living in dormitories. This is costing a huge sum of money. The purpose is to identify who are found to be infected for the virus and to put them in quarantine.
The task force should not miss the opportunity to analyze the results and learn valuable findings about the corona virus.
What other information are useful?
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2866
The task force should not miss the opportunity to analyze the results and learn valuable findings about the corona virus.
What other information are useful?
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2866
Friday, April 17, 2020
Join the international band wagon
Americans are scared of the coronavirus. It has already killed 105 per million of the population. It is so scary that the entire country has been logged down. I understand their concern. If we have 105 per million deaths in Singapore, I would also be scared.
Singaporeans are also terribly scared of the coronavirus. We are scared because Americans are scared, Europeans are scared and nearly everybody else is scared.
The coronavirus has killed 2 per million people in Singapore, but to the Singaporeans and the ministers in the task force, it does not make any difference. They cannot tell the difference between 105 and 2 deaths per million.
According to these people, every life is important. All deaths should be avoided.
These people think that the coronavirus is the only way to die.
They do not realize that there are another 3,498 people per million people who found other ways to die. These other deaths are not important, because our ministerial task force did not elevate them to the limelight.
I use a death rate of 3.5 per thousand for Singapore. This is provided by official statistics. There is another statistics that reported a death rate is 5 per thousand. It make no difference to my reasoning about our nonsensical approach.
So, Singapore also go into a lockdown, except that our ministers call it the circuit breaker and some people mistakenly call it the short circuit. Yeah, their thinking is short circuited.
Whenever I explained these statistics, I will get some over-reacted scare mongers scold me with all kinds of illogical arguments and personal statements.
One of them asked how I would feel if a foreign worker passed the virus to my maid who pass it to my family. I don't know how to reply to this kind of statement, so I just ignored it.
With the latest increase in new cases (which reflects the large increase in testing of the workers in the dormitory), many people expect more severe restrictions to follow. They expect a total lockdown.
I don't know what is a total lockdown, compared to what we already have now. Some body said - cannot go out and buy food. Better to stock up on food now. Another round of panic?
I also expect more severe restrictions, not because they are necessary, but because I expect the ministerial task force to over-react also. They also can't tell the difference between 105 deaths and 2 deaths per million, reflecting the poor quality of their leadership.
I don't know if the ministers realize that the increase is new cases is largely due to increased testing of the workers in the dormitory, rather than an actual increase in the transmission of the disease. If they did, why not state it in their daily news to the people?
Perhaps they think that it is safer to join the international band wagon, even though common sense dictate that our level of risk is very much lower.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2861
Singaporeans are also terribly scared of the coronavirus. We are scared because Americans are scared, Europeans are scared and nearly everybody else is scared.
The coronavirus has killed 2 per million people in Singapore, but to the Singaporeans and the ministers in the task force, it does not make any difference. They cannot tell the difference between 105 and 2 deaths per million.
According to these people, every life is important. All deaths should be avoided.
These people think that the coronavirus is the only way to die.
They do not realize that there are another 3,498 people per million people who found other ways to die. These other deaths are not important, because our ministerial task force did not elevate them to the limelight.
I use a death rate of 3.5 per thousand for Singapore. This is provided by official statistics. There is another statistics that reported a death rate is 5 per thousand. It make no difference to my reasoning about our nonsensical approach.
So, Singapore also go into a lockdown, except that our ministers call it the circuit breaker and some people mistakenly call it the short circuit. Yeah, their thinking is short circuited.
Whenever I explained these statistics, I will get some over-reacted scare mongers scold me with all kinds of illogical arguments and personal statements.
One of them asked how I would feel if a foreign worker passed the virus to my maid who pass it to my family. I don't know how to reply to this kind of statement, so I just ignored it.
With the latest increase in new cases (which reflects the large increase in testing of the workers in the dormitory), many people expect more severe restrictions to follow. They expect a total lockdown.
I don't know what is a total lockdown, compared to what we already have now. Some body said - cannot go out and buy food. Better to stock up on food now. Another round of panic?
I also expect more severe restrictions, not because they are necessary, but because I expect the ministerial task force to over-react also. They also can't tell the difference between 105 deaths and 2 deaths per million, reflecting the poor quality of their leadership.
I don't know if the ministers realize that the increase is new cases is largely due to increased testing of the workers in the dormitory, rather than an actual increase in the transmission of the disease. If they did, why not state it in their daily news to the people?
Perhaps they think that it is safer to join the international band wagon, even though common sense dictate that our level of risk is very much lower.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2861
Contact tracing using an app
I downloaded the TraceTogether developed by GovTech. I used it for a day. I gave up and deleted the app.
I do not like the approach. It consumed too much battery by running Bluetooth to scan for nearby mobile phones. It did not provide any feedback to me on whether there were any data that were captured.
I find the Safe Paths app that is being developed by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology to have most promise.
It is described here
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2857
I do not like the approach. It consumed too much battery by running Bluetooth to scan for nearby mobile phones. It did not provide any feedback to me on whether there were any data that were captured.
I find the Safe Paths app that is being developed by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology to have most promise.
It is described here
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2857
Compulsory to wear a mask
I went out on 16 April for 90 minutes walk wearing a mask. It was uncomfortable. I found it difficult to breath.
My friend said that the latest regulation allows a person to go out without a mask for brisk walking exercise.
I was aware of the latest change. Why did I wear the mask?
Here is the sequence of events:
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2856
My friend said that the latest regulation allows a person to go out without a mask for brisk walking exercise.
I was aware of the latest change. Why did I wear the mask?
Here is the sequence of events:
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2856
728 new cases on 16 April 2020
Wow! 728 new cases for April 16. It does not suggest that the virus is spreading rapidly. It is the result of comprehensive testing of the workers in the dormitories. The virus has already spread earlier and is now discovered by the testing.
In America, 20% of those tested are found to be positive for the virus.
In Singapore, the infected cases represent 6% of those tested (4427 out of 72680, according to WHO statistics).
If we carry out comprehensive testing of the general population, I expect to find that 6% would also have been infected, but many of these cases were not identified because the infections were mild.
Will MOH release the statistics of how many people were tested for the virus, how many were found positive and how many had symptoms? This information is important to understand what is really happening.
The absence of this information will will cause panic among the general population and lead to stronger reaction, such as more drastic lockdown measures. Is it really necessary?
So far, the death rate for the coronavirus is 2 per million of population. It is extremely low in Singapore, compared to 86 in America and over 100 in some European countries.
In contrast, the death rate in Singapore from all causes is 3,500 per million. We should not over-react when 2 die from coronavirus. There are another 3,498 people who die from other causes.
Of course, people are scared that the virus can spread more widely in the general population. They imagine that it could increase by 100 or 1,000 folds. That fear is exaggerated and unfounded.
Even if there are more people in the general population that gets infected, most of the cases are likely to be mild.
We only need to worry if there are more people that need to be placed in intensive care and the death rate increase to 20 per million, i.e. 10 times of the current rate.
I am not suggesting that we do nothing until it reaches 20. We do what is necessary if the number does increase rapidly from the current 2 per million, but we should not plan on the basis that it will become 20 or 200. Not yet.
I still call on the people, and more especially, the ministerial task force, to look at the figures in the perspective that I have suggested, and to take rational decisions on what needs to be done.
Tan Kin Lian
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2855
In America, 20% of those tested are found to be positive for the virus.
In Singapore, the infected cases represent 6% of those tested (4427 out of 72680, according to WHO statistics).
If we carry out comprehensive testing of the general population, I expect to find that 6% would also have been infected, but many of these cases were not identified because the infections were mild.
Will MOH release the statistics of how many people were tested for the virus, how many were found positive and how many had symptoms? This information is important to understand what is really happening.
The absence of this information will will cause panic among the general population and lead to stronger reaction, such as more drastic lockdown measures. Is it really necessary?
So far, the death rate for the coronavirus is 2 per million of population. It is extremely low in Singapore, compared to 86 in America and over 100 in some European countries.
In contrast, the death rate in Singapore from all causes is 3,500 per million. We should not over-react when 2 die from coronavirus. There are another 3,498 people who die from other causes.
Of course, people are scared that the virus can spread more widely in the general population. They imagine that it could increase by 100 or 1,000 folds. That fear is exaggerated and unfounded.
Even if there are more people in the general population that gets infected, most of the cases are likely to be mild.
We only need to worry if there are more people that need to be placed in intensive care and the death rate increase to 20 per million, i.e. 10 times of the current rate.
I am not suggesting that we do nothing until it reaches 20. We do what is necessary if the number does increase rapidly from the current 2 per million, but we should not plan on the basis that it will become 20 or 200. Not yet.
I still call on the people, and more especially, the ministerial task force, to look at the figures in the perspective that I have suggested, and to take rational decisions on what needs to be done.
Tan Kin Lian
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2855
Thursday, April 16, 2020
Death rate from covid-19 is low in Singapore
Here are the death rates from covid-19 per million of population
World: 17.3
Spain 402
Italy 358
France 263
UK 190
Sweden 119
USA 86
Iran 57
Germany 45
Canada 27
Turkey 18
Israel 15
South Korea 4
Malaysia 3
Singapore 2
Indonesia 2
Australia 2
China 2
The death rate is low in hot climate (Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Indonesia) and countries with better control (China, South Korea).
Although the cases and deaths have increased in Singapore during the past week, the death rate is low relative to other countries.
Tan Kin Lian
World: 17.3
Spain 402
Italy 358
France 263
UK 190
Sweden 119
USA 86
Iran 57
Germany 45
Canada 27
Turkey 18
Israel 15
South Korea 4
Malaysia 3
Singapore 2
Indonesia 2
Australia 2
China 2
The death rate is low in hot climate (Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Indonesia) and countries with better control (China, South Korea).
Although the cases and deaths have increased in Singapore during the past week, the death rate is low relative to other countries.
Tan Kin Lian
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